Institute for 2009 I I Patterns of Interaction Collaborative & - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Institute for 2009 I I Patterns of Interaction Collaborative & - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Oct 23, 2023 233 likes •597 views

Institute for 2009 I I Patterns of Interaction Collaborative & Perception of Intent Innovation Michael OBrien Kok Keng Tan Tal Sack Matthieu Branlat Lauren Grinstein Michael Smith Institute for 2009 I I Intent from COMINT Patterns

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Institute for2009 Collaborative Innovation

I I

Patterns of Interaction & Perception of Intent

Michael O’Brien Tal Sack Lauren Grinstein Kok Keng Tan Michael Smith Matthieu Branlat

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Understanding intent is hard

because it is complex. Looking at the patterns involved in interpretation of signals, and interactions between agents, helps structure things in a meaningful way.

Intent from COMINT

Challenges to 3rd Party Observers in Inferring Goals and Constraints

Institute for2009 Collaborative Innovation

I I

Patterns of Interaction & Perception of Intent

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HEY YOU!

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Intent from COMINT

Challenges to 3rd Party Observers in Inferring Goals and Constraints

Institute for2009 Collaborative Innovation

I I

Patterns of Interaction & Perception of Intent

Framework for Understanding Issues of Reading Intent Case Studies of Intent Misperception

  • Ruby Ridge
  • Yom Kippur/October 1973 War

Lab Studies of Interaction and 3rd Party Analysis

  • Cooperative/Competitive Game
  • Drone Mission Negotiation Scenario

Directions for Support (Design Seeds)

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What is Intent?

Powerful explanatory mechanism for forecasting behavior So useful we use it everywhere, even when it might not be really accurate

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What is Intent?

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Evolving Sets

  • f Goals

Opportunities Constraints Changing State of World Evolving Understanding

  • f World

Actions

  • f Agents

What is Intent?

Multiple Roles

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Direct Perception Projection Perspective Taking

Continuum of Ways to Read Intent

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Perspective Taking

Continuum of Ways to Read Intent

Experts

  • Social Scientists
  • Historians
  • Global Leaders
  • Consider immediate and

larger contexts

  • Use mental simulation
  • Apply domain knowledge

when assessing information

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Framework for Understanding Issues of Reading Intent

Political Psychology models of signaling and (mis)perception Cognitive Systems Engineering models of distributed anomaly response and process tracing

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 ⚔ $

$ 

...

Signaling & (Mis)Perception

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Patterns of Misperception of Intent

  • ver-

homogenization

  • ver-centralization;

presumption of coherence, planning, unitary action fundamental attribution error stereotyping

  • ver-estimation
  • f own

importance predisposition for causal explanations misperception of others' perceptions of us

  • ver-confidence

(in reading & signaling intent) lack of empathy projection, mirroring view others as static, unchanging assumption of proportionality in effort and importance

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Time Nature of Constraints

Causal Intentional

Data Events Analyses Stance Goals Plans Activities Expectations Data

get integrated spawn (diagnostic/ predictive) support resolves set set context shape structure

Distributed Process Monitoring & Replanning

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Data Events Analysis Stance Goals Plans Activities Expectations- Attention Expectations- Attention

More Detailed Model of Signaling & Perception

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Data Events Analysis Stance Goals Plans Activities Expectations- Attention Expectations- Attention Data Events Analysis Stance Goals Plans Activities Expectations- Attention Expectations- Attention Data Events Analysis Stance Goals Plans Activities Expectations- Attention Expectations- Attention Data Events Analysis Stance Goals Plans Activities Expectations- Attention Expectations- Attention Data Events Analysis Stance Goals Plans Activities Expectations- Attention Expectations- Attention Data Events Analysis Stance Goals Plans Activities Expectations- Attention Expectations- Attention

More Detailed Model of Signaling & Perception

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Data Events Analysis Stance Goals Plans Activities Expectations- Attention Expectations- Attention Data Events Analysis Stance Goals Plans Activities Expectations- Attention Expectations- Attention Data Events Analysis Stance Goals Plans Activities Expectations- Attention Expectations- Attention Data Events Analysis Stance Goals Plans Activities Expectations- Attention Expectations- Attention Data Events Analysis Stance Goals Plans Activities Expectations- Attention Expectations- Attention Data Events Analysis Stance Goals Plans Activities Expectations- Attention Expectations- Attention

More Detailed Model of Signaling & Perception

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Methodological issues

  • How can we study the process of inferring

intent?

  • How can we model dynamics of behavior that

reveal underlying dimensions of intent (stance, mindset, goals)?

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Studies

  • Case studies
  • Ruby Ridge
  • Yom Kippur
  • Experiments
  • Collaborative/Competitive Game
  • Negotiation Scenario
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Studies

  • Case studies
  • Ruby Ridge
  • Yom Kippur ➠ poster session
  • Experiments
  • Collaborative/Competitive Game
  • Negotiation Task ➠ poster session
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Case Study: Ruby Ridge

Motivations

  • Purposes
  • Analyze dynamics of interaction
  • Explore representations
  • Scope
  • Available documentation
  • Multiple perspectives
  • Implement process-tracing methodology
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Case Study: Ruby Ridge

Result: Perspectives

Initial Shooting Marshall killed Weaver will resist arrest Weaver is a serious threat Protect society from Weaver Get additional resources Get FBI involved General attention to white supremacists, militia movements, conspiracy theorists... File built on Weaver (Aryan Nations) Initial troubles with Weaver Threatening letters received by judge(s)

LAW ENFORCEMENT / FBI

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Case Study: Ruby Ridge

Result: Perspectives

Son killed Police will shoot them Increased animosity and mistrust of government Protect themselves from law enforcement Lock themselves in cabin Check movement

  • n property

Initial Shooting Moved away from corrupt society Autonomous life Tricked by local police Growing animosity and mistrust against governmental agencies Knew he was in trouble with the law Thought he would not have a fair trial Law enforcement will come with hostile purposes

WEAVER FAMILY

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Case Study: Ruby Ridge

Result: Patterns

time alignment conflict conflict

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Experiment

Collaborative/Competitive Game

  • Purposes
  • Analyze dynamics of interaction from multiple

perspectives

  • Rules designed to produce cooperative and

competitive behaviors

  • Experiment
  • Participants verbalize
  • Activity is captured, then analyzed by outside observer
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Experiment

Collaborative/Competitive Game

Round 1

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Experiment

Collaborative/Competitive Game

Round 2

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Inferring intent is difficult

  • We are very attuned to it...
  • we are very good at it in many situations
  • we will infer intent
  • ... but it is easy to misperceive intent
  • people’s behavior is not always deliberate
  • history of interactions creates powerful expectations
  • “language” of interaction can be ambiguous
  • Especially difficult for third party observers
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Patterns of Misperceptions of Intent

  • ver-

homogenization

  • ver-centralization;

presumption of coherence, planning, unitary action fundamental attribution error stereotyping

  • ver-estimation
  • f own

importance predisposition for causal explanations misperception of others' perceptions of us

  • ver-confidence

(in reading & signaling intent) lack of empathy projection, mirroring view others as static, unchanging assumption of proportionality in effort and importance

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Perspective Taking

  • Mental simulation
  • Structure (patterns, dynamics)
  • Reflection

What supports intent reading

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Directions for Support

Rigor as Framework for Reflection Archetypical Patterns as Hypothesis Space Anchors Post-Hoc Automated Critique

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Archetypical Patterns as Hypothesis Space Anchors

Escalation Balancing process Rapprochement

Rivalry

Misperceptions

Recognition of misread signal

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Post-Hoc Automated Critique

Patterns of Misperceptions of Intent

  • ver-

homogenization

  • ver-centralization;

presumption of coherence, planning, unitary action fundamental attribution error stereotyping

  • ver-estimation
  • f own

importance predisposition for causal explanations misperception of others' perceptions of us

  • ver-confidence

(in reading & signaling intent) lack of empathy projection, mirroring view others as static, unchanging assumption of proportionality in effort and importance

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Understanding intent is hard

because it is complex. Looking at the patterns involved in interpretation of signals, and interactions between agents, helps structure things in a meaningful way.

Intent from COMINT

Challenges to 3rd Party Observers in Inferring Goals and Constraints

Institute for2009 Collaborative Innovation

I I

Patterns of Interaction & Perception of Intent

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THANK YOU!