Institut Franais des Relations Internationales Energy Roundtable - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Institut Franais des Relations Internationales Energy Roundtable Brussels March 21 st , 2013 New Energy Resources in East Africa Pushing back the continents last hydrocarbon frontier Roger CARVALHO CEO - SPTEC Advisory Introduction to

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SLIDE 1

Institut Français des Relations Internationales Energy Roundtable

Brussels – March 21st, 2013

New Energy Resources in East Africa Pushing back the continent’s last hydrocarbon frontier Roger CARVALHO

CEO - SPTEC Advisory

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SLIDE 2

Introduction to SPTEC Advisory

  • SPTEC Advisory was founded in 1994 as an independent advisory firm focusing on Oil &

Gas in Africa and the Middle East, based in Paris.

  • The firm specialises in strategic and commercial advisory, mergers - acquisitions and

divestitures advisory, as well as financial structuring and fund raising advisory.

  • Our client base includes corporations, financial institutions, governments and

individuals related to our focus industry. The management has an extensive network of relationships with access to industry leaders and decision makers globally.

  • In February 2013, SPTEC Advisory and Upstream Advisors, a niche consultancy firm,

have entered into a strategic alliance agreement to leverage their complementary expertise.

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SLIDE 3

Contacts

  • For further information, please contact:

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72, rue du Faubourg Saint-Honoré 75 008 Paris

Mustapha K. FAID President

Cell: +33 6 82 84 52 38 mkf@sptec-advisory.com

Roger M. CARVALHO Chief Executive Officer

Cell: +33 6 50 88 48 64 rmc@sptec-advisory.com

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SLIDE 4

45.7% (2 260) 32.8% (4 059) 27.1% (4 656) 49.0% (1 697) 37.3% (2 092) 38.1% (563) 29.0% (1 967) 18.2% (898) 23.5% (2 906) 23.9% (4 106) 19.4% (673) 24.7% (1 386) 15.2% (225) 22.4% (1 520) 30.3% (1 499) 30.1% (3 724) 24.5% (4 218) 25.5% (882) 19.6% (1 099) 41.7% (617) 38.8% (2 626) 0.4% 4.8% 6.6% 0.5% 8.7% 0.1% 1.6% 5.4% 8.8% 17.9% 5.6% 9.8% 4.9% 8.1% 4 942 12 384 17 197 3 463 5 612 1 479 6 772 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1970 2011 2035 1970 2011 1970 2011

World Energy Consumption (Million tonnes oil equivalent)

Liquids Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Other (Renewables, Hydro…)

Total World OECD Non-OECD

Gas has taken a large proportion in World’s Energy mix

4

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2012

+5.3

  • 12.9

+5.3

  • 11.7

+7.2

  • 18.1
  • 5.7

+0.4

  • 5.9
  • 2.9
  • 5.6

+9.1 +3.4 +4.2 +3.2

  • 0.2
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SLIDE 5

China and Asia will be the most demanding regions

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World Gas demand (bcm/a) 3229 2011

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SLIDE 6

LNG importers: Demand is revised upwards with China and India reaching top ranks

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107 49 25 24 17 17 16 15

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Japan South Korea UK Spain India China Taiwan France bcm

LNG import countries in 2011 Top four LNG importers in 2025

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2012

114 52 52 53 141 90 70 61

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Japan China India South Korea 2009 Forecast 2012 Forecast bcm Source: BG Group interpretation of Wood Mackenzie data (Nov 2009 and Aug 2012 forecasts)

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SLIDE 7

World LNG supply challenge: 232 bcm/a gap by 2025

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= 232 bcm/a

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SLIDE 8

LNG trades in 2011: 331 bcm representing 1/3 of total gas trade

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LNG 330.8 Pipeline 694.6

LNG vs Pipeline trade (bcm)

32 % 68 %

Total 1025.4

Asia Europe Asia Europe

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SLIDE 9

Top 10 New discoveries in 2012

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Gas discoveries: 84.4 TCF Oil discoveries: 5 bnbbl

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SLIDE 10

Mozambique accounted for 1/3 of the new volumes and Tanzania ranked 2nd overall

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SLIDE 11
  • Songo Songo-1: drilled by ENI in Tanzania
  • Mnazi Bay-1: drilled by ENI in Tanzania
  • Mkuranga-1: drilled by Maurel et Prom in Tanzania
  • Kiliwani-North-1: drilled by Aminex in Tanzania
  • Mafia-deep-1: drilled by Maurel et Prom in Tanzania
  • Windjammer-1: drilled by Anadarko in Mozambique
  • Barquentine-1: drilled by Anadarko in Mozambique
  • Lagosta-1: drilled by Anadarko in Mozambique
  • Pweza-1:drilled by BG in Tanzania
  • Chewa-1: drilled by BG in Tanzania
  • Tubarao-1: drilled by Anadarko in Mozambique
  • Camarao-1: drilled by Anadarko in Mozambique
  • Mamba south-1: drilled by ENI in Mozambique
  • Zafarani-1: drilled by Statoil in Tanzania
  • Mamba North-1: drilled by ENI in Mozambique
  • Golfinho-1: drilled by Anadarko in Mozambique
  • Chaza-1: drilled by BG in Tanzania
  • Jodari-1:drilled by BG in Tanzania
  • Mzia-1: drilled by BG in Tanzania
  • Atum-1: drilled by Anadarko in Mozambique
  • Ntorya-1: drilled by Aminex in Tanzania
  • Lavani-1: drilled by Statoil in Tanzania
  • Mamba North east-1: drilled by ENI in Mozambique
  • Coral-1: drilled by ENI in Mozambique
  • Papa-1: drilled by BG in Tanzania
  • Coral-3: drilled by ENI in Mozambique
  • Tagawizi-1: drilled by Statoil in Tanzania

Mozambique / Tanzania: Gas discoveries and prospects

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  • 1974
  • 1981
  • 2006
  • 2008
  • 2009
  • 2010
  • 2011
  • 2012
  • 2013

Legend: Tanzania discoveries Mozambique discoveries

Source: Maurel et Prom

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SLIDE 12

Gas discoveries by actor in Mozambique & Tanzania

12 Area 4

  • 2011
  • 22.5 TCF
  • 2012
  • 43.5 TCF
  • 2013
  • 4 TCF

ENI

75 TCF (estimated) Area 1

  • 2010/2011
  • 17 – 30+ TCF
  • 2012
  • 15 – 35 TCF

Anadarko

50 TCF (estimated) Block 2

  • 2012
  • 9 TCF
  • 2013
  • 4 – 6 TCF

Statoil

14 TCF (estimated) Block 1

  • 2012
  • 8.7 – 13.7 TCF

Block 3

  • 2012
  • 0.5 – 2 TCF

BG

12.5 TCF (estimated) Mtwara Block

  • 2012
  • 1.5 TCF

Aminex

1.5 TCF (estimated)

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28 53 57 63 66 70 73 77 86 105 127 127 133 159 181 195 215 288 300 859 885 1 169 1 575 100 200 300 400 500

Tanzania (e) Libya Uzbekistan Kuwait Kazakhstan Canada Norway Egypt Malaysia Indonésie Iraq Mozambique (e) Australia Algeria Nigeria Venezuela UAE Saudi Arabia USA Turkmenistan Qatar Iran Russia

Gas Proven Reserves (Tcf)

Mozambique ranks #12 in gas reserves globally 127 TCF in 2012, and more still to confirm

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Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2012, EIA, SPTEC Advisory

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SLIDE 14

New supply for Asia by 2025: East Africa & North America (?)

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Source: Dataloy (2013)

Qatar Egypt Australia

Japan 3,683 n miles Japan 6,314 n miles Japan 7,573 n miles

Existing supply New supply

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SLIDE 15

Mozambican fields development will cost $42.7 bn

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Source: ICF International, Credit Suisse

Capital Costs for potential LNG Plants across the Globe (USD/tpa)

12.5 6.6 1.6 3.1 1.6 9.8 4.5 0.5 1.4 1.2

22.3 11.1 2.1 4.5 2.8

5 10 15 20 25

Prosperidade / Mamba Golfinho / Atum Tubarao Coral Others

Total costs by field (billion USD) (as at December 2012)

Total Exploration & Development Capital Costs Total O&M Costs Post-FID (In June 2012) Pre-FID

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SLIDE 16

China $19.35 Korea $17.75 Spain $15.25 Altamira $3.55 Japan $19.75

Current prices and forecasts make Mozambique projects profitable

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Source: Waterborne Energy, Inc. Data in $US/MMBtu Updated: February 7, 2013

India $15.70 Belgium $9.86 UK $9.94 Cove Point $3.34 Lake Charles $3.01 Rio de Janeiro $16.84 Bahia Blanca $18.09

World LNG Estimated March 2013 Landed Prices

Henry Hub/ Nymex Long Term: JCC Short Term: NBP/Other hubs Brent (85%), NBP (15%) NBP & Other Hubs

Henry Hub since 2010

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SLIDE 17

116 48 41 33 30 28 27 27 21 14 13

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Qatar Indonesia Mozambique(e) with 6 LNG trains* Malaysia Nigeria Mozambique(e) with 4 LNG trains* Australia Algeria Trinidad & Tobago Mozambique(e) with 2 LNG trains* Russia

bcm

LNG Nominal Capacity

Mozambique will become a major player in LNG market

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Years (Reserves/Production)

170 y 127 y 84 y 39 y 39 y 10 y 58 y 74 y 87 y Source: GIIGNL, ICF International, SPTEC Advisory 130 y 261 y

* Mozambican exports does not take into account internal gas consumption

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SLIDE 18

Challenges for Mozambique

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  • Negotiate with Anadarko and

ENI to get LNG development

  • Public ownership and funding
  • Public-Private Partnership
  • ENH’s financing structure
  • Financing ENH’s equity shares

Financing

  • Training of decision makers
  • Adequate labor force
  • General education
  • Sustainability and

environmental protection

Human Resources

  • Roads
  • Ports
  • Rails
  • Airports
  • Telecom
  • Power grid

Infrastructure

  • Energy Mix (Gas, Coal, Hydro)
  • Gas Master Plan Development
  • Decisions about downstream

mega-project development

  • Local

market and SME promotion

Local Power Market

  • Uses of revenues
  • USD or gas taken in-kind

allocation

  • Regulatory

clarity in the Energy Sector

  • Marketing structure

Institutional Framework

  • Methanol
  • Fertilizers (ammonia, urea)
  • Gas to liquids (GTL)
  • Cement
  • Steel

Other Industries

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SLIDE 19

A promising future

  • A New Giant in Natural Resources
  • Gas (127 TCF proven and more to come)
  • Coal (25 billion tons, 25% of the world’s coking coal by 2025)
  • A New Player in Energy Geopolitics
  • Asia
  • Europe
  • A Land of Opportunities in all sectors
  • European Industry players

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SLIDE 20

SPTEC Advisory was established in 1994 as an independent advisory firm focusing

  • n the Oil & Gas industry in Africa and the Middle-East

SPTEC Advisory delivers un-biased advice supported by an in-depth knowledge of the sector value chain SPTEC Advisory specialises in strategic and commercial advisory, investments and divestitures advisory, as well as financial structuring and fund raising advisory www.sptec-advisory.com