Instability of the Earth's angular velocity and long-term - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

International Conference and Early Career Scientists School on Environmental Observations, Modeling and Information Systems ENVIROMIS-2014, June 28 - July 5, 2014, Tomsk, Russia

Instability of the Earth's angular velocity and long-term fluctuations of the Belaya River discharge

Vasil’ev Denis Y. Mikhailov Gennady P. Ufa State Aviation Technical University Ufa, Russia

Instability of the Earth's angular velocity and long-term fluctuations of the Belaya River discharge Overview:

• Significance of the study
• Study area and data used
• Results
• Conclusions
• Acknowledgments

International Conference and Early Career Scientists School on Environmental Observations, Modeling and Information Systems ENVIROMIS-2014, June 28 - July 5, 2014, Tomsk, Russia

— Sidorenkov N.S. The Interaction between Earth’s Rotation and Geophysical

• Processes. Weinheim: Wiley. 2009. 305 p.

— Gray L.J., Beer J., Geller M., Haigh J. D., Lockwood M., Matthes K.,

Cubasch U., Fleitmann D., Harrison G., Hood L., Luterbacher J., Meehl G. A., Shindell D., van Geel B., and White W. // Rev. Geophys. 2010. V. 48.

• RG4001. doi:10.1029/2009RG000282.

— Abarca del Rio R., Gambis D., Salstein D., Nelson P., Dai A // J.

• Geodynamics. 2003. V. 36. P. 423-443.

— Egger J., Weickmann K., Hoinka K-P. // Rev. Geophys. 2007. V. 45. RG4007.

doi: 10.1029/2006RG000213.

— Höpfner J. // Geophys. J. Int. 1998. V. 135. P. 407-437. — Kerr R.A. // Science. 1984. V. 224. № 4649. P. 587. — Currie R.G. // J. Geophys. Res. 1984. V. 89. № D5. P. 7215-7230.

Significance of the Study

International Conference and Early Career Scientists School on Environmental Observations, Modeling and Information Systems ENVIROMIS-2014, June 28 - July 5, 2014, Tomsk, Russia

Study area and data used

Hydrological station Index Location Available period, years Basin area, km2 Mean annual discharge, m3/sec Belaya River – GS Birsk 76295 55°20ʹ″N55°30ʹ″E 1936-2010 121000 837 Belaya River – GS Sterlitamak 76284 53°40ʹ″N56°00ʹ″E 21000 121 Belaya River – GS Arsky Kamen 76275 53°52ʹ″N58°16ʹ″E 2300 14

International Conference and Early Career Scientists School on Environmental Observations, Modeling and Information Systems ENVIROMIS-2014, June 28 - July 5, 2014, Tomsk, Russia

accumulated time series sample average sample standard deviation

• n the basis of the vector R(1) form the vector Y(1)

transformation of the original vector Y(1) in the vector PY(1 is given by an operator A points i,Yi

(0) (i=0,..,n-1) define the original schedule the test series, and the points i,Yi (1) (i=0,..,n-1) - DIC

Construction Y(1) by the recurrent formula

1 ,.., ,

) ( ) (

− = = n i y y

i

n i S y y R

s i i

,.. 1 ,

) ( ) 1 (

= − =

∑

− =

=

1 ) (

1 n

i i s

y n y

∑

− =

− − =

1 2 ) (

) ( 1 1

n i s i

y y n S

∑

=

=

i j j i

R Y

) 1 ( ) 1 ( ) ( ) 1 (

AY Y = ..) 1 , ( ,

) ( ) 1 (

= =

+

k AY Y

k k

Method of Residual Mass Curves

International Conference and Early Career Scientists School on Environmental Observations, Modeling and Information Systems ENVIROMIS-2014, June 28 - July 5, 2014, Tomsk, Russia

Trajectories of air masses depending on the prevalence of the type of atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere

International Conference and Early Career Scientists School on Environmental Observations, Modeling and Information Systems ENVIROMIS-2014, June 28 - July 5, 2014, Tomsk, Russia

Results

International Conference and Early Career Scientists School on Environmental Observations, Modeling and Information Systems ENVIROMIS-2014, June 28 - July 5, 2014, Tomsk, Russia

Annual length (days) of West (W), East (E), and Central (C) air mass circulations (left axis) and the anomalies (milliseconds) of the E a r t h ’ s R o t a t i o n Acceleration (ERA, right axis) as functions

• f time (years).

Results

International Conference and Early Career Scientists School on Environmental Observations, Modeling and Information Systems ENVIROMIS-2014, June 28 - July 5, 2014, Tomsk, Russia

Average values of the Belaya River runoffs at the Birsk gauging station (GS) (left axis) and Residual Mass Curves (RMC) of 1, 2, 3 and 4 kinds (right axis) as functions of time (years).

Hydrological Station Regression Model Confidence Interval α = 0.1 Student’s Criteria F-criteria St Stкр F Fкр

Belaya River– GS Birsk1 Q = 954.95 – 6.48 t 1.81 1.69 5.29 4.13 Belaya River– GS Birsk2 Q = 688.61 + 11.27 t 3.10 1.70 9.63 4.29 Belaya River– GS Sterlitamak1 Q = 140.94 – 1.20 t 2.65 1.69 4.74 4.13 Belaya River– GS Sterlitamak2 Q = 99.70 + 1.98 t 2.63 1.70 6.89 4.20 Belaya River– GS Arsky Kamen1 Q = 2.35 – 0.003 t 2.01 1.69 4.19 4.13 Belaya River– GS Arsky Kamen2 Q = 2.56 + 0.01 t 1.70 1.70 4.22 4.18

Index1 and Index2 are marked time intervals from 1936 to 1972 and 1973-2004, respectively.

Results

International Conference and Early Career Scientists School on Environmental Observations, Modeling and Information Systems ENVIROMIS-2014, June 28 - July 5, 2014, Tomsk, Russia

Conclusions

— Annual anomalies of the Earth's angular velocity have a significant impact on the

nature of atmospheric circulation. An increase in the number of days of the Earth’s Rotation Acceleration (ERA) leads to a decrease of the air mass circulation in the West and Central directions. Reducing the number of days of the ERA results in a growing circulation in the East direction. In fact, increasing the ERA gives additional momentum to the ocean-atmosphere system. The transport of heat and moisture in Europe results in a high-water period.

— Understanding the mechanisms of fluctuations of the Earth’s angular speed on

the climate system is an important scientific problem. There are, therefore, a number of models explaining climate change. This is a complex stochastic process that requires research on different spatial and temporal scales. Fluctuations of the Earth’s rotation and its interaction with the Earth’s atmosphere can be associated with the gravity of the Moon.

International Conference and Early Career Scientists School on Environmental Observations, Modeling and Information Systems ENVIROMIS-2014, June 28 - July 5, 2014, Tomsk, Russia

Acknowledgements

— Organizing committee SCERT-2014, Tomsk, Russia — Vinogradova G.M., leading researcher of the SibRRHMI,

Novosibirsk, Russia

— Ferapontov Y.I., Bashkir Department of Hydrometeorology

and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet), Ufa, Russia

International Conference and Early Career Scientists School on Environmental Observations, Modeling and Information Systems ENVIROMIS-2014, June 28 - July 5, 2014, Tomsk, Russia

THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME