Risks - barriers to transitioning from interest to agreeing terms Essential to have electricity available 24/7 or a 10 minute constraint would have significant impact. Connection not within project timescale or not connected in parallel Nervousness about the number of constraints Long and short term impact on equipment / increased maintenance Impact on operation of their business & loss of export ability Breach of service level agreements (triad & capacity market) & reputation Unease at relinquishing control of equipment Arrangements for re-closure/having staff on standby Financial incentive = key driver for target market But only if sufficient to offset all risks AND the revenue from other commercial arrangements 34
Current position and delivery risks CBA of Ongoing Contract traditional customer templates & Agreeing sites connection Customer consultation commercial to be trialled vs survey report arrangements with United new published May Trial technology developed, Utilities constrained 2017 outside published May connection ‘triad period’ 2018 agreement 35
Lessons learned to date Survey analysis Future potential to provide ‘appeared to prove’ alternative ‘ constrained’ the hypothesis that the connection offers There is a market for an FCL (lower cost and quicker service, where a constraint will connection on fault level have little or no impact constrained networks) 36
Respond safety case Objective The UK HSE regards a safety case as Produce a written safety case for each fault level mitigation a document that gives technique: confidence to operators, owners, workers and the Adaptive Protection competent authority that the Is Limiter duty holder has the ability and means to manage and control Fault Current Limiting service major accident hazards Publish the peer reviewed safety effectively”. case by September 2018 37
Safety case process Identify hazards and quantify their potential impact Show how mitigated risk can be managed to ALARP Identify remaining high risk hazards and redesign to ALARP ALARP = As Low As Challenge and make clear the assumptions and judgements used Reasonably Possible Provide supporting evidence Justify the mitigations for the worst credible scenarios Provide documentation to record and support the safety case 38
Respond safety case approach It is essential that the safety case demonstrates Any appropriate limits and Follows the risk conditions for management their use have standards All the risks and Demonstrate the been defined hazards have techniques/instal Independent been assessed in lations follow assessment of all techniques Identify failures established good safety cases installation modes of the practice scenarios techniques by a Complies with thorough and appropriate systematic fault legislation sequence process The safety case will be a clear and logical document so that the three techniques can be operated safely and reliably 39
Next steps for Respond Monitor the trial and analysis Complete the FCLS Complete and peer review of the techniques for another installations and learning the safety cases 12 months Produce a buy order of the Assess the health impact of Carbon footprint study of the fault level mitigation the trial on our assets techniques techniques 40
Which challenge do you feel is the most important for a new connection? A. Speed of connection B. Fault level C. Operational restriction D. Streamlined connection procedure 41
Celsius Damien Coyle 42
Agenda Brief introduction Project aims Thermal monitoring to Celsius Data monitoring Customer Next steps 43
Celsius Awarded: 9th December 2015 Thermal Retrofit Thermal Monitoring Monitoring Closedown ratings tool cooling Cooling trial ratings tool Go live installation trial stage 1 installation Jun 2019 stage 2 Mar 2020 Mar 2017 Mar 2018 Oct 2018 Jun 2018 Jan 2020 Up to £583m £5.5 across GB by million Financial 2050 benefits Investment 44
The problem Distribution Customers’ substation LCTs 45
Step 1: Fit thermal monitoring Learning Deliverable Benefit Asset Internal temperature External temperature Environmental More Thermal Thermal factors capacity coefficient Ratings Tool 46
Step 2: Retrofit cooling Learning Deliverable Benefit Asset Asset Internal temperature Internal temperature External temperature External temperature Environmental Environmental Full Retrofit cooling Enhanced factors factors capacity specifications, Thermal installation Ratings Retrofit cooling methodologies and Tool buy order 47
Celsius as part of the smart future Thermal Ratings Tool Smart meter data Celsius Retrofit monitoring cooling Reinforce Extra capacity Lower bills for customers 48
Case studies Thermal q core q external analysis temperature = (step 1) Internal asset Thermal External asset coefficient temperature Thermal flow Research into heat and air flows for study optimal substation design (steps 1 & 2) Asset health Examines effects of increased load study and cooling techniques on assets (steps 1 & 2) 49
Data to date Measurements stored Latest metrics 289,477 inbound requests handled 43,292,611 measurements stored 72,081 lines of code 50
Installation issues Data gaps Data gaps Firmware Firmware Firmware through GPRS caused by upgrade to the upgrade to HEX upgrade to HUB connection backend KTSO1 wireless (OTA) algorithm and temperature timestamp sensor handling 51
HUB OTA update Ramillies Avenue 52
Smart Tx vs Celsius: power Apparent Power ( kVA ) 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 0 09/05/2017 16:00 09/05/2017 19:00 09/05/2017 22:00 10/05/2017 01:00 10/05/2017 04:00 10/05/2017 07:00 10/05/2017 10:00 10/05/2017 13:00 10/05/2017 16:00 10/05/2017 19:00 10/05/2017 22:00 11/05/2017 01:00 11/05/2017 04:00 11/05/2017 07:00 11/05/2017 10:00 11/05/2017 13:00 11/05/2017 16:00 11/05/2017 19:00 11/05/2017 22:00 12/05/2017 01:00 Stotal 12/05/2017 04:00 12/05/2017 07:00 12/05/2017 10:00 12/05/2017 13:00 Stotal Celsius 12/05/2017 16:00 12/05/2017 19:00 12/05/2017 22:00 13/05/2017 01:00 13/05/2017 04:00 13/05/2017 07:00 U% 13/05/2017 10:00 13/05/2017 13:00 13/05/2017 16:00 13/05/2017 19:00 13/05/2017 22:00 14/05/2017 01:00 14/05/2017 04:00 14/05/2017 07:00 14/05/2017 10:00 14/05/2017 13:00 14/05/2017 16:00 14/05/2017 19:00 14/05/2017 22:00 15/05/2017 01:00 15/05/2017 04:00 15/05/2017 07:00 15/05/2017 10:00 15/05/2017 13:00 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Utilisation ( % ) 53
Smart Tx vs Celsius: temperature Temperature ( °C ) 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 09/05/2017 16:00 09/05/2017 18:30 09/05/2017 21:00 09/05/2017 23:30 10/05/2017 02:00 10/05/2017 04:30 10/05/2017 07:00 Celsius Top ( Internal) Celsius Top ( Tank Surface Face 2) Smart Hot-Spot 10/05/2017 09:30 10/05/2017 12:00 10/05/2017 14:30 10/05/2017 17:00 10/05/2017 19:30 10/05/2017 22:00 11/05/2017 00:30 11/05/2017 03:00 11/05/2017 05:30 11/05/2017 08:00 11/05/2017 10:30 11/05/2017 13:00 11/05/2017 15:30 11/05/2017 18:00 11/05/2017 20:30 11/05/2017 23:00 12/05/2017 01:30 12/05/2017 04:00 Itotal Celsius Top ( Tank Surface Face 3) Smart Top 12/05/2017 06:30 12/05/2017 09:00 12/05/2017 11:30 12/05/2017 14:00 12/05/2017 16:30 12/05/2017 19:00 12/05/2017 21:30 13/05/2017 00:00 13/05/2017 02:30 13/05/2017 05:00 13/05/2017 07:30 13/05/2017 10:00 13/05/2017 12:30 13/05/2017 15:00 13/05/2017 17:30 13/05/2017 20:00 13/05/2017 22:30 14/05/2017 01:00 Celsius Top ( Tank Surface Face 4) Celsius Top ( Tank Surface Face 1) 14/05/2017 03:30 14/05/2017 06:00 14/05/2017 08:30 14/05/2017 11:00 14/05/2017 13:30 14/05/2017 16:00 14/05/2017 18:30 14/05/2017 21:00 14/05/2017 23:30 15/05/2017 02:00 15/05/2017 04:30 15/05/2017 07:00 15/05/2017 09:30 15/05/2017 12:00 800 1100 1400 1700 2000 2300 2600 2900 Current ( A ) 54
Customer engagement Customers in the Celsius trial areas will find the implementation of innovative retrofit cooling techniques as acceptable as traditional reinforcement Customers who are educated as to the need for and benefits of Celsius are significantly more likely to find it acceptable Baseline Test Customer Focus survey survey groups engagement plan Video/ Customer Social Website podcasts mailing media 55
Progress and next steps July – July - December January – June January – June December 2018 2017 2018 2017 Data capture Monitoring Installation of Asset health study installation report Retrofit cooling Thermal flow study Carbon Impact technologies Cooling Technologies assessment DNO cooling selection Customer surveys workshop Asset temperature Cooling installation behaviour report Customer focus plan groups Thermal ratings Thermal flow study tool (Step 1) report Knowledge sharing and dissemination 56
Distribution System Operator (DSO) Vision Steve Cox 57
DSO: definition and exclusions “A DSO balances capacity on the distribution network to enable new connections and meet the requirements of existing customers through the use of flexible distributed energy resources, network investment and commercial services ensuring security and quality of supply standards are delivered” The DSO is not the owner of The DSO is not limited to The DSO should not the network(s) that it one licence area or indeed normally own permanent operates, for example one group boundary. It is generation, storage or other independent DNOs or conversely likely that within DERs unless it does so as private networks connected a given network area the the owner of last resort to the licensed DNO’s DSO will encompass all (and in such circumstances network or indeed multiple emerged networks eg IDNO subject to the guidance in licence areas the EU package) 58
DSO: essential components Network capacity provision Network capacity market management Network access management and forecasting Service definition and charging Wider market engagement 59
Network capacity provision Our responsibility: To enable customers connected to our networks the freedom to buy and sell their energy safely, securely and at lowest cost Requires new service model for network management and design Provision of flexible network capacity through local and regional balancing DSO will need to determine: Point of Connection Any new capacity Security and Electrical losses Quality of supply optimisation and operating terms required Resilience standards Internal Organisational Licence/ Internal capability Subject matter experts/resource levels/ skills capability structure regulation Org structure Existing/ change required/ new function Licence/reg Current licence and regulatory environment situation 60
Network capacity market management Maximising utilisation of all existing network capacity ensures efficiency Provision of capacity for customers from other customers is often lowest cost, first option DSOs must facilitate local markets for flexible capacity Direct customer access Access through aggregators Exchange of information and enhanced transparency necessary to avoid inefficient network over-stress and maintain security of supply Internal capability Organisational structure Licence/ regulation 61
Network access management Dynamic network management becomes a 24/7 function to balance security, cost and access New service metrics and mechanisms required Commercial solutions Managing essential outage plans Generation Indices Constraint Indices Engineering solutions Internal capability Organisational structure Licence/ regulation 62
Forecasting capacity Enhanced forecasting abilities required Long-term Day ahead Year ahead forecasting ...24 ...365 --2030-- Internal capability Organisational structure Licence/ regulation 63
Service definition and charging Structure of network charging will require fundamental review Charging arrangements must reflect service customers require Capacity based charging structure Potentially enhanced by recognition of requirements for services such as: Security of Reactive power Power quality Voltage stability Fault Level connection and inertia Internal capability Organisational structure Licence/ regulation 64
Wider market engagement DSOs well placed to provide additional, value-adding but non-essential, services to network users, such as DSOs can support the Transmission System Operator in Generation output optimisation whole system balancing through commercial provision of services ENWL commercial roll-out of CLASS technology this year is first example of this Power factor correction Internal capability Organisational structure Licence/ regulation 65
Capability matrix DSO Functions Current Network capacity provision Network capacity market management Network access management and forecasting Service definition and charging Wider market engagement Contractual Arrangements Commercial. Frameworks Power System Analysis Codes/Frameworks Outage Planning Contract/Service Capabilities Compliance Forecasting Settlement Regulation Dispatch Pricing Data 66
ENA TSO-DSO project Customer journey maps for connections and updated connections Whole system investment and 2. Customer 1. T-D Process agreements operational planning processes Experience TSO-DSO Short: Identify problems of current Project charging arrangements DSO transition roadmap, functional Medium: recommend smart tariff, 3. DNO to DSO requirements and model for DSO, 4. Charging flexible connection and ancillary transition market model options services pricing Long: Strategic review/ whole system pricing End Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 1 2017 Definition of T-D processes, customer Impact assessment Regulatory Design, build experience, DNO to of options and enactment and test DSO transition and preferred design charging 67
Our high level roadmap Customer based Technical activities Commercial activities Regulation activities • CBA to inform decisions for selected • Review of licence and codes to identify solutions (traditional vs smart) • Forecasting/modelling Constraint Management impacts and raise change if required • Flexible Connections Contract • • • Capacity Planning (need identification) Curtailment Factor Review of EU codes and identify DSO ED1 year 3 Management • • Strategic Investment Generation Index accountabilities • Purchase of flexibility services (DSR) • • ANM Specification of requirements Develop Capacity Incentive • Curtailment Factor management • Investment ahead of need • Point of Connection - prototype • • CLASS functionality – Live • Active Network Management Launch Sell flexibility services (CLASS) • • CLASS 2 - trial Review of licence and codes to identify ED1 Year 4 • • Active Network management offering • Trial energy efficiency Active Network Management impacts and raise change if required implementation • Data visibility (SO) • Balancing of network capacity (load • Review of licence and codes to identify ED1 Year 5 • • group) Market operation service auctions Develop energy efficiency incentive impacts and raise change if required • Data visibility (Aggregators/suppliers) • ED1 Year 6, 7 & Fault prioritisation based on curtailment • • Trial energy efficiency incentive Review of licence and codes to identify • and DSR impact. • Implement energy efficiency incentive impacts and raise change if required 8 • Commercial operations become core • Active System Management • business capability Operating as a Regional DSO ED2 • Provision of flexible services to TSO • • Non regulated commercial Regulated commercial opportunities • Extensive use of data analytics opportunities 68
Do you think that DSO will support flexibility and innovation? A. Yes B. Partially C. No D. Undecided 69
Should the DSO encompass all energy options eg gas, heat A. Yes B. No C. Eventually 70
DSO transformation programme 71
Introducing our partners Paul Turner 72
Meet our partners Schneider Impact WSP/Parsons Ricardo Kelvatek Ash Wireless TNEI Electric Research Brinckerhoff European Leading marketing Technical Technical UK leader in low Creative Experienced in all multinational and research consultancy with consultancy voltage (LV) electronics design aspects of power corporation organisation with experience in all organisation with switching, consultancy generation, specialising in extensive aspects of power experience in all automation and transmission and Specialists in electricity experience in generation, aspects of power fault management distribution sensing distribution and customer transmission and generation, technology technologies and Particular automation engagement distribution transmission and Brought a number have a track expertise in management activities in the UK distribution Experience in of innovative record in network utilities industry Suppliers of collecting, product solutions providing bespoke modelling Electricity North Successfully analysing and to the power monitoring West’s network delivered research interpreting industry through solutions to the management for a number of network data such robust research utility industry system innovation as substation load and development projects and temperature 73
Breakout sessions Customer Smart Street Oil regeneration Load forecasting engagement Session 1 Room 1 Room 2 na Boardroom 1.15 – 1.35pm Session 2 Room 1 na Room 2 Boardroom 1.35 – 1.55pm Break 1.55 – 2.25pm Session 3 Room 2 na Room 1 Boardroom 2.25 – 2.45pm 74
Smart Street Technology Ben Ingham 75
Background Historic networks LCTs create Customer Smart Street Conservation have no active network issues generation could stabilises voltage voltage reduction voltage regulation cause voltage to across the load Customer Stabilised voltage exceed statutory range and demand could can be lowered voltage limits optimises power cause voltage to making our flows dip below network and statutory limits customers’ appliances more efficient 76
Project overview £11.5m, Started in Jan Trials period Extensive Quicker four-year 2014 and Jan 2016 – customer connection of innovation finishes in Apr Dec 2017 engagement LCTs project 2018 programme Lower energy throughout bills project Improved supply reliability 77
Lynx and Weezap LV vacuum devices Retrofits onto standard equipment Replicates standard fuse curves up to 400A Telemetered back to central monitoring point 78
Capacitors LV units are multi-stage HV units are single stage Used for voltage control only 79
OLTCs 9 tap positions with 2% per step Nominal tap Self regulating on loss of comms 80
Learning points – site installations Communications Water ingress Cabinet design and Enclosure size location 81
Network overview Spectrum C C 2 C TC C W C 2 C CLASS L W W C L C 2 C C Capacity to Customers Capacitor WEEZAP LYNX On-load tap changer C 2 C C W L TC Builds on C 2 C and CLASS Storage compatible Transferable solutions 82
Spectrum Power 5 Siemens network Optimisation Linked to CRMS via management module – DSSE/ ICCP link system VVC 83
System architecture 84
Learning points – system System architecture Integration with existing SCADA system 85
Load Forecasting and ATLAS Dr Rita Shaw 86
Outline of presentation Forecasts or scenarios for strategic planning? Our two NIA projects ATLAS for grid and primary ATLAS for the secondary networks Identifying half-hourly true demand Weather correction P forecast approach Q forecast approach Final thoughts 87
Outlook for future demand Why could demand go up? Why could demand fall? 88
Forecasts or scenarios? 89
Objectives of our work Enabling good Credible demand and decisions about generation scenarios, Support solutions to reflecting uncertainty well-justified strategic capacity problems, planning of and informed dialogue Tailored to our region, network capacity with National Grid and assets and data other stakeholders 90
Two related NIA projects Demand Scenarios with ATLAS Electric Heat and Commercial (Architecture of Tools for Load Capacity Options Scenarios) Winter / summer peak load Expanded scope April 2015 - October 2016 November 2015 – December 2017 91
Two related NIA projects Demand Scenarios ATLAS Based on domestic v. non-domestic and Half-hourly through year differences by local authority Monthly peak, average, minimum Heat pumps and air conditioning – True demand and generation affecting winter and summer peaks More detailed load model Efficient investment in peak capacity – P and Q , then S and load factor the Real Options CBA model 92
Expanding scope for ATLAS P scenarios - Q scenarios – learning from learning from Demand REACT NIA, Scenarios NIA, but for whole but with more DNO network customer detail Prototype tools Indicative Specification for for grid and comparisons to secondary primary capacity networks 93
ATLAS – demand definitions True Latent Loads DG units demand demand Latent Measured True demand demand demand (generation) 94
ATLAS – demand definitions Effects of DG Measured Monitored DG on reducing Non- True demand demand exports customer monitored DG demand Monitored At sites with component of export true demand metering 95
Data processing for monitored component Data corrections Identification of data problems (half-hourly & daily analyses) See detailed methodology at www.enwl.co.uk/atlas 96
Estimation of non-monitored generation - – early draft 90 non-monitored generation 80 70 60 P (MW) 50 40 30 20 10 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 10 4 time (hr) - Financial Years 2012-2016 97
Aggregated P demand across GSPs – early draft Peak true demand (23/11/2016) Min true demand (05/07/2016) ( ) 4500 4000 3500 3000 3000 P (MW) 2500 2500 2000 2000 P (MW) 1500 1500 Generation 1000 1000 Generation Measured Demand 500 500 Measured Demand 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 time (hr) time (hr) 98
Substation-specific weather correction Half-hourly true demand scaled to the Daily demand over five years correlated mean temperature range of that month with daily temperature and daylight hours based on 30-year regional weather history 99
P forecast model per G&P substation Working with Integrated Scenarios Baseline uses Draft models set Element Energy, approach from presenting processed hh true up on FY16 extending their customer peak/average/ demand + baseline work with UKPN distribution per min diurnal database of and NPg asset to produce profiles of installed DG scenarios for each demand and of 17 GSPs – 76 generation BSPs – 396 primary substations 100
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