IN THE WORLD ECONOMY: On the Significance of Developing Countries - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION IN THE WORLD ECONOMY:

On the Significance of Developing Countries Deepak Nayyar

UNU-WIDER 30th Anniversary Conference Helsinki 17th September 2015

AN OVERVIEW

• Developing Countries in the World Economy
• Disparate Outcomes and Uneven Development
• Lessons and Learning from Development Experience
• Reflecting on the Past and Contemplating the Future

Slide 2

• I. CATCHING UP

Economic Size: Income and Population

• Share in World GDP
• Share in World Population

Comparison of Growth Performance

• Growth in GDP
• Growth in GDP per capita

Levels of Income

• End of Divergence
• Beginnings of Convergence?

Catch Up in Industrialization

• Manufacturing value added
• Manufactured exports

Engagement with the world economy

• International trade
• International investment
• International migration

Slide 3

• II. UNEVEN DEVELOPMENT

Regions: Asia, Africa and Latin America

• Distribution of income and population
• Growth rates of GDP and GDP per capita
• Divergence and convergence in income levels
• Progress in industrialization
• Engagement with the world economy

Country-Groups: Next-14, of which BRICS, and LDCs

• Distribution of income and population
• Growth rates of GDP and GDP per capita
• Divergence and convergence in income levels
• Progress in industrialization
• Engagement with the world economy

Slide 4

Slide 5

• III. LESSONS AND LEARNING

Differences and diversity among the Next-14

• Size and settings
• Drivers and emphases
• Transitions and models

Similarities and common factors underlying success

• Initial conditions
• Enabling institutions
• Supportive governments

Lessons for followers or latecomers

• Alternative paths to development
• Contextualization and choice
• Potential and possibilities

Slide 6

• IV. CONTEMPLATING FUTURES
• Transforming growth into development
• Possibilities, alternatives and choices
• Learning and unlearning from development

ANNEXURES

Slide 7

Slide 8

World GDP in current prices at market exchange rates

1980 1990 2000 2010 2013 Developing Countries 21.7 17.5 21.6 32.8 36.9 Industrialized Countries 68.4 77.8 76.0 61.9 57.4 Eastern Europe and former USSR 9.9 4.7 2.4 5.3 5.7 World 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 World Total (in US$ billion) 12043 22604 32858 64401 74601

Table 1

The Distribution of World GDP and World Population: 1980-2013 (in percentages) World Population

1980 1990 2000 2010 2013 Developing Countries 74.2 77.0 79.2 80.7 81.2 Industrialized Countries 17.2 15.3 14.2 13.4 13.1 Eastern Europe and former USSR 8.6 7.7 6.6 5.9 5.7 World 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 World Total (in US$ billion) 4.4 5.3 6.1 6.9 7.2

Source: United Nations, UN National Accounts Statistics and Population Statistics

Slide 9

GDP

1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2008 2009-13 1981-2013 Developing Countries 3.7 4.7 6.5 5.4 4.8 Industrialized Countries 3.4 2.7 2.2 1.6 2.4 Eastern Europe and former USSR 2.9

• 1.2

6.2 2.8 1.4 World 3.5 3.0 3.4 2.8 2.9

Table 2 Growth Rates in the World Economy: 1981-2013 (percent per annum)

GDP per capita

1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2008 2009-13 1981-2013 Developing Countries 1.5 3.1 5.1 4.1 3.1 Industrialized Countries 2.8 1.4 1.9 1.3 1.3 Eastern Europe and former USSR 2.2

• 1.2

6.0 2.7 1.1 World 1.7 1.6 2.2 1.6 1.5

Source: United Nations, UN National Accounts Statistics, GDP and GDP per capita in 2005 dollars

Slide 10

Table 3 GDP per capita in Developing Countries as a proportion of GDP per capita in the World Economy and in Country-Groups

1980 1990 2000 2010 2013 Industrialized Countries 0.07 0.04 0.05 0.09 0.10 Eastern Europe and former USSR 0.24 0.35 0.75 0.45 0.45 Least Developed Countries 2.80 3.20 5.20 5.10 5.10 World Economy 0.29 0.23 0.27 0.41 0.45 Developing Countries (in US$ current prices at market exchange rates) 791 964 1465 3787 4731

Source: United Nations, UN National Accounts Statistics and Population Statistics

Slide 11

1980 1990 2000 2010 2013 Manufacturing Value Added 18.4 17.8 24.7 42.0 [45.0] Manufactured Goods Exports (12.0) (17.9) 29.3 40.2 43.4 Merchandise Exports 29.7 24.1 31.9 42.1 44.8 Merchandise Imports 24.0 22.2 28.8 39.0 42.4 Remittance Inflows 46.8 42.0 60.8 68.6 [70.1] FDI Inward Stock 42.5 24.7 23.6 32.4 33.3 FDI Outward Stock 13.0 6.7 11.1 16.4 19.0

Table 4 Economic Significance of Developing Countries in the World Economy 1980-2013 (as a percentage of totals for the world)

Source: Nayyar (2013) and United Nations Statistics

Slide 12

• I. Regions

1980 1990 2000 2010 2013 Asia 11.5 10.1 13.1 22.2 26.2 Africa 3.6 2.2 1.8 2.7 2.8 Latin America 6.6 5.2 6.7 7.9 7.9

• II. Country Groups

Next-14 12.3 11.9 15.5 24.0 27.1 Of which BRICS 6.3 5.5 7.4 15.8 18.6 Least Developed Countries 0.9 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.1 Other Developing Countries 8.5 4.9 5.5 7.8 8.7 Developing Countries 21.7 17.5 21.6 32.8 36.9 World 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 World Total (in US$ billion) 12043 22604 32858 64401 74601

• A. GDP in current prices at market exchange rates

Table 5

The Distribution of GDP and Population in the Developing World: 1980-2013 (in percentages)

Slide 13

• I. Regions

1980 1990 2000 2010 2013 Asia 55.4 56.9 57.5 57.3 57.1 Africa 10.7 11.8 13.2 14.9 15.5 Latin America 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.5 8.5

• II. Country Groups

Next-14 51.6 52.3 52.1 51.3 50.9 Of which BRICS 41.2 41.7 41.5 40.7 40.4 Least Developed Countries 8.8 9.6 10.8 12.1 12.5 Other Developing Countries 13.8 15.1 16.3 17.3 17.8 Developing Countries 74.2 77.0 79.2 80.7 81.2 World 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 World Total (in US$ billion) 4.4 5.3 6.1 6.9 7.2

Table 5

The Distribution of GDP and Population in the Developing World: 1980-2013 (in percentages)

• B. Population

Source: United Nations, UN National Accounts Statistics and Population Statistics

Slide 14

• I. Regions

1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2008 2009-13 1981-2013 Asia 5.5 6.0 7.5 6.2 6.1 Africa 2.1 2.8 5.6 3.6 3.3 Latin America 1.9 3.1 4.2 3.8 2.8

• II. Country Groups

BRICS 5.3 6.4 8.3 6.8 6.3 Next-14 4.8 5.3 6.6 5.8 5.3 Least Developed Countries 2.5 3.9 7.3 4.5 4.3 Developing Countries 3.7 4.7 6.5 5.4 4.8 World 3.5 3.0 3.4 2.8 2.9

• A. GDP

Table 6

Growth Rates in the Developing World for Regions and Country-Groups: 1981-2013 (percent per annum)

Slide 15

• I. Regions

1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2008 2009-13 1981-2013 Asia 3.4 4.5 6.3 5.1 4.6 Africa

• 0.7

0.3 3.1 1.1 0.8 Latin America

• 0.1

1.4 3.0 2.6 1.2

• II. Country Groups

BRICS 3.3 5.1 7.3 5.8 4.9 Next-14 2.8 4.0 5.6 4.8 4.0 Least Developed Countries

• 0.1

1.2 5.0 2.2 1.8 Developing Countries 1.5 3.1 5.1 4.1 3.1 World 1.7 1.6 2.2 1.6 1.5

• B. GDP per capita

Source: United Nations, UN National Accounts Statistics

Table 6

Growth Rates in the Developing World for Regions and Country-Groups: 1981-2013 (percent per annum)