IN THE FOOD WARS? Melissa Cameron | Manager Human Health and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

IS TRUTH THE FIRST CASUALTY IN THE FOOD WARS?

Melissa Cameron | Manager Human Health and Nutrition Policy | Dairy Australia

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IS TRUTH THE FIRST CASUALTY IN THE FOOD WARS?

The power of a cohesive plan Non-dairy alternatives have

• utstripped the

growth of dairy milk Consumers are ditching dairy for non-dairy alternatives

PERCEPTIONS AND SO WHAT…

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60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140

March 2007 June 2007 September 2007 December 2007 March 2008 June 2008 September 2008 December 2008 March 2009 June 2009 September 2009 December 2009 March 2010 June 2010 September 2010 December 2010 March 2011 June 2011 September 2011 December 2011 March 2012 June 2012 September 2012 December 2012 March 2013 June 2013 September 2013 December 2013 March 2014 June 2014 September 2014 December 2014 March 2015 June 2015 September 2015 December 2015 March 2016 June 2016 September 2016 December 2016 March 2017 June 2017 September 2017 December 2017 March 2018 June 2018 September 2018 December 2018

Litres (Million) Dollars (Million)

26th January 2011 $1 milk 2016 Milk step down Branded milk campaign

Dollars Litres

TOTAL WHITE MILK (FRESH AND UHT) SALES, AUSTRALIAN SUPERMARKETS

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5 10 15 20

March 2007 June 2007 September 2007 December 2007 March 2008 June 2008 September 2008 December 2008 March 2009 June 2009 September 2009 December 2009 March 2010 June 2010 September 2010 December 2010 March 2011 June 2011 September 2011 December 2011 March 2012 June 2012 September 2012 December 2012 March 2013 June 2013 September 2013 December 2013 March 2014 June 2014 September 2014 December 2014 March 2015 June 2015 September 2015 December 2015 March 2016 June 2016 September 2016 December 2016 March 2017 June 2017 September 2017 December 2017 March 2018 June 2018 September 2018 December 2018

Litres (Million) Dollars (Million)

TOTAL NON-DAIRY ALTERNATIVE (FRESH AND UHT) SALES, AUSTRALIAN SUPERMARKETS

Non-dairy alternatives include: soy, almond, coconut, rice, oat

26th January 2011 $1 milk 2016 Milk step down Branded milk campaign

Dollars Litres

WHAT SHARE OF THE TOTAL MILK MARKET IS THE NON-DAIRY ALTERNATIVES (IN SUPERMARKETS)?

16%

9%

7%

5%

50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 100.00

March 2007 June 2007 September 2007 December 2007 March 2008 June 2008 September 2008 December 2008 March 2009 June 2009 September 2009 December 2009 March 2010 June 2010 September 2010 December 2010 March 2011 June 2011 September 2011 December 2011 March 2012 June 2012 September 2012 December 2012 March 2013 June 2013 September 2013 December 2013 March 2014 June 2014 September 2014 December 2014 March 2015 June 2015 September 2015 December 2015 March 2016 June 2016 September 2016 December 2016 March 2017 June 2017 September 2017 December 2017 March 2018 June 2018 September 2018 December 2018

Milk Alternatives

Flavoured Milk

93.5%

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PERCENTAGE VOLUME SUPERMARKET SALES

5% 7%

91%

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• 10.0
• 5.0
• 5.0

10.0 15.0 20.0 Total white milk Total fresh milk Total UHT Total non dairy

Growth in litres (millions)

AUSTRALIAN TOTAL MILK AND NON-DAIRY SALES 2018

1% 2% 2%

• 4%
• 63% of total milk and non-dairy alternatives is sold through supermarkets
• 37% sold through other outlets (food service, institutions, hospitals and petrol stations)

Busted: Growth of fresh white milk and non-dairy alternatives is on a par!

Consumers are ditching dairy for non-dairy alternatives Animal welfare and sustainability are the drivers for switching from dairy

PERCEPTION

Dairy milk

• nly

62% Alternative milk only 5%

CROSS PURCHASE: DAIRY VS NON-DAIRY ALTERNATIVE BOTH 31% 93% buy dairy milk in any given week 35% buy alternative milks in any given week 2% buy neither

Dairy Trust Tracker 2018 Total n=1,254; Buy alternative milk n=367; Buy dairy milk n=1,174

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Average purchase: 4.1 litres of dairy milks per week Average purchase: 2.3 litres of alternative milks per week

WHO’S BUYING ALTERNATIVES?

Dairy Trust Tracker 2018 Total n=1,254; Buy alternative milk n=367; Buy dairy milk n=1,174

14% 23%

13% 16% 14% 12%

12% 7% 13% 10%

9% 5%

11% 6%

PURCHASE DAIRY MILK PURCHASE ALTERNATIVE MILK

Age and gender

Female 18-34 Male 35-49 Female 35-49 Male 50-65 Female 50-65 Male 65+ Female 65+

64% 72% 36% 28%

PURCHASE DAIRY MILK PURCHASE ALTERNATIVE MILK

Metro vs Regional

METRO RURAL/ REGIONAL

19% 17% 33% 26% 29% 34%

10% 10% 10% 10%

PURCHASE DAIRY MILK PURCHASE ALTERNATIVE MILK

Household structure

Single person household Two person / couple household with no children living at home Family with at least 1 child 18 and under living at home Family with only children over 18 living at home Adult household, sharing

WHY DO PEOPLE BUY ALTERNATIVES? 54% It’s a healthier

• ption

32%

I prefer the taste 17% I have a dairy intolerance or allergy 13% Another reason

Dairy Monitor 2017: Buy alternatives n= 555

14 (Regular fat) COW’S MILK SOY RICE ALMOND OAT

INGREDIENTS LIST

Milk

Filtered water,

• rganic whole soy

beans (min 17%), pearl barley, barley malt, raw sugar, sunflower

• il, minerals

(calcium phosphate), natural flavouring, sea salt, kombu (kelp), vitamins (vitamin B2, vitamin A, vitamin B12) Filtered water, whole brown rice (min 13%), sunflower oil, calcium phosphate, sea salt Filtered water, whole oats (min 15%), oat flour, sunflower oil, gum arabic, mineral (calcium phosphate) , sea salt Filtered water, whole almonds (min. 3.8%), raw sugar, minerals (calcium phosphate), emulsifier (sunflower lecithin), sea salt, vegetable gum (gellan), natural flavour Filtered water, Pea Protein Isolate (4%), Sugar, Minerals and Vitamins (Calcium Phosphate, Vitamin B2, Vitamin D, Vitamin B12), Natural Flavours, Stabilisers (418, 415), Salt. PEA

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NATURAL NUTRITION – DAIRY VS. NON-DAIRY ALTERNATIVES

VITAMINS & MINERALS (% RDI ) Calcium 34% 37% 23% 37% 37% 38% Phosphorous 23% 18% 5% 0% 3% 25% Riboflavin 32% 5% 0% 0% 7% 31% Vitamin A 18% 2% 0% 0% 14% 0% Zinc 7% 3% 2% 0% 2% 0% Magnesium 8% 17% 8% 0% 6% 0% Added during manufacturing PRICE Per Litre $1.58 $2.42 $2.50 $2.95 $3.39 $4.00

(Regular fat) COW’S MILK SOY RICE ALMOND OAT

PROTEIN Per serve (g) 7.8g 7g 1g 4g 1g 8.8g

PEA

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FAD DIETS AND FOOD PHILOSOPHIES

Keto

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A BIG FOCUS ON PLANT-BASED DIETS

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BUSTED…

Consumers are cross purchasing dairy and non- dairy alternatives Health and taste are driving the increase purchasing of non- dairy alternatives

The power of a cohesive plan SO WHAT SHOULD THE INDUSTRY DO…

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101 YEARS OF BUTTER AND MARGARINE

REPOSITIONING DAIRY FAT

Nov 2010 Dec 2011 Sep 2012 Oct 2013 Nov 2013

Gary Taubes Prof Bruce Griffin Dr Christopher Ramsden

Mar 2012 Feb 2013 Dec 2014 May 2015

0.0 50000.0 100000.0 150000.0 200000.0 250000.0 300000.0 0.0 5000.0 10000.0 15000.0 20000.0 25000.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Dollars (‘000s) Kilos (‘000s)

Volume (Kilos) Value ($)

TOTAL AUSTRALIAN BUTTER SALES

Brand owners are finding innovative ways to lock in on consumer trends and communicate their values to customers.

• Natural
• Provenance
• Less/no sugar

INNOVATIVE PRODUCTS AND MARKETING

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DEVELOP PLAN AND WHERE ARE WE AT…

Together the dairy industry needs a united position and cohesive plan to communicate the value of dairy

Dairy has 93% of liquid milk market, but don’t underestimate the alternatives Consumers are cross-purchasing milk and non-dairy alternatives and they believe alternatives are healthier

THE FACTS

QUESTIONS

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“We live in the experience economy and increasingly value intangibles like identity, uniqueness and memorability. Contemporary values are likened to the ‘warm glow’ of giving to a charity or the pride that comes from communicating your beliefs. Society wants something to believe in and with their heightened scrutiny of animal agriculture we have a role to outline a way forward and deliver an industry that not only meets these expectations but far exceeds!”

Daniel Eb, The Vegans are coming, so Kiwi farmers need to give us something to believe in. The Spin Off, 2019

Melissa Cameron mcameron@dairyaustralia.com.au

Manager Human Health and Nutrition Policy | Dairy Australia