IN INTERI ERIM M RESU SULTS S PRESENT SENTATION TION 12 March - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
IN INTERI ERIM M RESU SULTS S PRESENT SENTATION TION 12 March - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
IN INTERI ERIM M RESU SULTS S PRESENT SENTATION TION 12 March ch 2020 20 0 Introduction Portfolio overview C O N T E N T S Valuation overview Liquidity analysis Brait transaction 1 Overview of the last six months and market
C O N T E N T S
Introduction Portfolio overview Valuation overview Liquidity analysis
1
Brait transaction
Unexpected load shedding, the recessionary environment, low consumer confidence and productivity levels coupled with inflationary cost increases made 2H19 one of the most difficult operating environments in decades Outside of South Africa, growth rates remain strong although currency and political risks remain elevated with global risk sentiment and lower oil prices Growth in NAV of 1% since June 2019 to R11.48 per share, attributable EBITDA grew 3.2% Post the Brait transaction, Ethos Capital has invested capital of R2.7bn and is 100% invested The focus of the funds and Ethos Capital is on monetization of the current portfolio to return capital to shareholders The direct and indirect effects of Coronavirus will impact both portfolio company profitability and valuations in the short to medium term however over the longer term this should normalise
P e r f o r m a n c e a n d o u t l o o k
Overview of the last six months and market outlook
2
# of Portfolio Companies
19
(24 post Brait transaction)
NAV per Share
R11.48
Growth in NAV per share
1%
EV / EBITDA
(Actual)
6.7x
Capital Invested
R1.7bn
Capital Invested
(Post Brait)
R2.7bn
Net Debt / EBITDA
(Actual)
1.6x
Total Assets
R1.96bn
(R2.7bn post Brait transaction)
Invested capital
(as % of Total Assets)
85.5%
(100% post Brait transaction)
K e y p e r f o r m a n c e m e t r i c s
Highlights of the operating results
3
C O N T E N T S
Introduction Portfolio overview Valuation overview Liquidity analysis
4
Brait transaction
F u n d i n v e s t m e n t s
R253 million invested and growthin the past 6 months (excluding Brait), including 4 acquisitions
5
R253m
P o r t f o l i o c o m p o s i t i o n
Total assets contribution – pre Brait transaction
6
59% 41%
South Africa Rest of sub-Saharan Africa Assets owned for more than two years Assets owned for less than two years
P o r t f o l i o c o m p o s i t i o n
Total assets contribution – post Brait transaction
7
63% 24% 13%
South Africa Rest of sub-Saharan Africa International
78% of Total assets
P o r t f o l i o c o m p a n y o v e r v i e w
Acce ccess ssib ible le custome stomer base se
650m
Access to +650m mobile subscribers
Dail ily adv dvan ance ces
+$5m
+$5m advances distributed daily, with over 6 million transactions per day (US$1.82bn advanced YTD vs US$1.36bn in 2018)
Stron
- ng
g finan anci cial al perfo formance
>17%
Y-o-Y LfL EBITDA growth LTM December 2019
Defa fault ult rates es
<1%
Lowest default rates in the industry and the highest service penetration
Glob
- bal
al prese sence
>25
Presence across 4 continents and >30 countries (most of which are in sub-Saharan Africa) – six new deployments initiated Increasingly connected populations Rising consumer spending Ai and hyper decision- making Financial Inclusion
Key ey inve vestmen stment t theme emes
1.7 billion adults remain unbanked* 67% 67%* of unbanked adults have access to a m mobile phone
Channel VAS aims to provide the underbanked in emerging markets with
mobile access to financial services through impactful technologies
* The Global Findex Database 2017
Date ate of inves estmen ent October 2018 % o
- f EC Inves
ested ted Capital ital 27% Tota
- tal
l Ethos
- s ow
- wner
ersh ship ip 20% % o
- f EC Tota
- tal
l Assets ts 23% EC Inves ested ed Capital ital R392m Curren ent t va valuation tion R460m (1.23x TMB) L6M Ret eturn +R38m (9%) R23m dividends received, increased stake by 3% to 20%
Channel VAS update
8
Channel VAS provides Airtime Credit Services and Mobile Financial Services to prepaid mobile subscribers through MNOs
L6M change in NAV:
+R38m 8m
% of Ethos Capital TA:
23% 23%
Date ate of inves estmen ent October 2017 % o
- f EC Inves
ested ted Capita ital: 11% Tota
- tal
l Ethos
- s ow
- wner
ersh ship ip 28.3% % o
- f EC Tota
- tal
l Assets ts: 10% EC Inves ested ed Capital ital R189m Curren ent t va valuation tion: R191m (1.04x TMB) L6M Ret eturn
- R11m (-6%)
Multiple unchanged, EBITDA decline
P o r t f o l i o c o m p a n y o v e r v i e w
9
Kevro update
L6M change in NAV:
- R11m
% of Ethos Capital TA:
10% 10%
New Wareh rehou
- use
se Faci cili lity ty ERP & WMS System stem
KEY HIGHLIGH IGHTS
Subdued economic environment has continued to adversely affect end customers Margin declined due to weak volumes, product mix shifts and pricing pressure ✓ Reasonable financial performance in a difficult market; positive impact from price increase in October 2019 ✓ Operational projects to improve service levels and enhance efficiencies
- New Warehouse and IT systems
- Optimisation of procurement function
✓ All the above projects to be funded by internally generated cashflows ✓ B-BBEE rating improved to Level 4
“1 Box”
- Increased pallet locations
- Warehousing, picking mezz & branding
Allows Kevro to consolidate into one site; expected to drive efficiencies Integr tegrate ate Ops & System ems
- Enhance inventory management
- Improve quality of BI in support of
decision-making processes
P o r t f o l i o c o m p a n y o v e r v i e w
10
KEY EY HIGHLIG IGHTS
Weak advertising market (industry radio and outdoor advertising spend both down YoY) Most corporate advertising budgets have been cut Out-of-Home profits declined due to pressure on higher margin assets ✓ Group performance holding up relatively well given difficult operating conditions ✓ Market share gains in broadcasting limited the revenue decline ✓ Pursuit of ongoing cost saving initiatives to protect margin ✓ Strategic review and operating model changes in Ster Kinekor Theatres (SKT) resulted in improved performance
Digiti itizatio zation of Outdo door bill llbo boards ards Mar arket et share are
Growth in radio market share was a significant positive in 2019
Strate ategic ic re-fo focu cus
Sold SKE and unbundled SKT to create a focused broadcasting and outdoor advertising business Capital expenditure in digitising billboards and creating “new age” solutions for advertisers
Primedia update
Date ate of inves estmen ent December 2017 % o
- f EC Inves
ested ted Capita ital: 11% (including SKT) Tota
- tal
l Ethos
- s ow
- wner
ersh ship ip 19.9% + 5.0% (EC) % o
- f EC Tota
- tal
l Assets ts: 10% (including SKT) EC capital ital inves estme tment R174m Curren ent t va valuation tion: R186m (1.07x TMB) L6M Ret eturn
- R8m
Primedia EBITDA decreased, multiple slightly down
L6M change in NAV:
- R8m
% of Ethos Capital TA:
10% 10%
P o r t f o l i o c o m p a n y o v e r v i e w
5
Forecast growth in Africa’s data consumption
+42 %
Mar arket et oppo portu tunity ity
$9.9bn
bn
The B2B service market is growing faster than any other segment of ICT in SSA
Growth th in FTTX TTX conn nnec ecti tion
- ns
x3 x3
SSA severely underserved outside SA; FTTX connections projected to grow three-fold to 2020 KEY EY HIGHLIG IGHTS
Ongoing delays to obtaining regulatory approvals to complete acquisition of remaining countries (Zimbabwe, Tanzania and Ghana) ✓ Majority of Gondwana acquisition concluded in October 2019, extending Echo’s footprint into Kenya, Uganda, Mauritius and Zambia ✓ Business successfully delivered its 1st B-BBEE rating under the ICT Codes and obtained a level 4 rating ✓ Investment in sales force - strong momentum in delivering against sales targets (147% of full year target achieved in 9 months) ✓ Strategic review and operational model assessment project underway ✓ Strong pipeline of acquisition targets
SSA A presen esence
Countries (more to follow soon) CAGR to 2021
11
Echo update
Date ate of inves estmen ent February 2018 % o
- f EC Inves
ested ted Capita ital: 10% Tota
- tal
l Ethos
- s ow
- wner
ersh ship ip 63.6% % o
- f EC Tota
- tal
l Assets ts: 9% EC Inves ested ed Capital ital R159m Curren ent t va valuation tion: R170m (1.07x TMB) L6M Ret eturn +R9.5m (6%) Increase in gross revenues drove increased valuation
L6M change in NAV:
+R10m 0m
% of Ethos Capital TA:
9% 9%
CARDIO- VASCULAR ORTHO SURGERY WOUND CARE NEUROLOGY BLOOD DISEASE DIAGNOSTIC SOLUTIONS
P o r t f o l i o c o m p a n y o v e r v i e w
KEY EY HIGHLIG IGHTS
Lower GP margins in certain specialist verticals; plans in place to address this ✓ Robust like-for-like growth, driven by increased market share and new products ✓ Three value accretive acquisitions completed in Q4 2019 ✓ Pursuit of additional opportunities ongoing; near term focus is integration of recent acquisitions ✓ Appointed new CEO with strong technology background ✓ Significant investment in IT systems to facilitate platform roll out ✓ Strong Ai potential both in terms of new business growth and product utilisation ✓ Potential for ex-South Africa growth is significant
12
Vertice update
Date ate of inves estmen ent May 2018 % o
- f EC Inves
ested ted Capita ital: 9% Tota
- tal
l Ethos
- s ow
- wner
ersh ship ip 86% % o
- f EC Tota
- tal
l Assets ts: 8% EC Inves ested ed Capital ital R116m Curren ent t va valuation tion: R147m (1.27x TMB) L6M Ret eturn +R28.7m (+24%) Strong EBITDA growth drove valuation Established uniquely skilled distribution Biotech Infotech convergence Technology platform and scale AI and Data Science
L6M change in NAV:
+R29m 9m
% of Ethos Capital TA:
8% 8%
P o r t f o l i o c o m p a n y o v e r v i e w
Synerlytic Lab footprint Agent labs
13
13 13
SSA & MEI I prese sence
Countries
Signif ific ican ant barr rrie iers s to entry ry
Holds globally applicable accreditations
South Africa Namibia Pakistan DRC Ghana Mozambique Angola Botswana Zimbabwe Zambia Ivory Coast India UAE
Synerlytic update
Date ate of inves estmen ent April 2019 % o
- f EC Inves
ested ted Capita ital: 7% Tota
- tal
l Ethos
- s ow
- wner
ersh ship ip 94% % o
- f EC Tota
- tal
l Assets ts: 6% EC Inves ested ed Capital ital R91m Curren ent t va valuation tion: R121m (1.34x TMB) L6M Ret eturn +R17.7m (17%) Multiple unchanged, EBITDA growth
L6M change in NAV:
R18m
% of Ethos Capital TA:
6% 6%
KEY EY HIGHLIG IGHTS
Decline in sampling volumes from South African customer base ✓ Wearcheck performing in line with budget ✓ AFS outperforming as a result of strong revenue growth, efficient utilisation levels and cross selling ✓ Positive momentum in AMIS from international sales efforts; EBITDA well ahead of prior year ✓ Pursuit of organic growth through partnerships and extending footprint to select new countries ✓ Assessing M&A opportunities to facilitate further geographic expansion
C O N T E N T S
Introduction Portfolio overview Valuation overview Liquidity analysis
14
Outlook
15
Portfolio composition Key valuation metrics
* Share price as at 31 December, 2019
P o r t f o l i o C o m p o s i t i o n
Portfolio composition and valuation metrics
15
6.7x 1.6x 34% 46%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 50.0%
- 1.0x
2.0x 3.0x 4.0x 5.0x 6.0x 7.0x 8.0x
EV / EBITDA Net debt / EBITDA Discount to NAV Discount to peer group 0.81 10.67 7.53 86% 34% 31 Dec 19 Share price Cash equivalents Invested Capital Share price % of TAPS Actual NAV discount NAV
11.48
7.53 0.81 6.72 3.1x 1.6x 4.7x
NAV Cash Invested NAV Valuation
SHARE BASED VALUATION 11.48 0.81 10.67 5.1x 1.6x 6.7x
NAV Cash Invested NAV Valuation
NAV BASED VALUATION Portfolio valued at a 46% discount to the peer group... .....market “look-through” values portfolio at 4.7x EV / EBITDA
V a l u a t i o n o v e r v i e w
Market implied valuation analysis
16
* Share price as at 31 December, 2019
100 54 35
46% 34%
- 20
40 60 80 100 120 Peer group company valuations Ethos portfolio company valuations Implied market company valuations
LTM EBITDA growth by company LTM Sales growth by company Net debt / EBITDA by company
P o r t f o l i o c o m p a n y p e r f o r m a n c e
Growth rates and market implied EV / LTM EBITDA multiples of the portfolio
Market implied EV / EBITDA by company
17
396 227 339 616 5 3 5 3 <= 0% > 0% - <= 5% > 5% - <= 15% > 15%
Value - R'm Number
259 260 467 591 4 3 4 5 <= -10% > -10% - <= 0% > 0% - <= 15% > 15%
Value - R'm Number
497 317 240 320 205 3 2 4 5 2 <= 0x > 0x - <= 1.5x > 1.5x - <= 2.5x > 2.5x - <= 3x > 3x
Value - R'm Number
211 499 570 299 4 3 6 3 <= 4x > 4x - <= 5x > 5x - <= 6x > 6x
Value - R'm Number
5.0x 5.4x 6.3x 2.9x 6.1x 5.6x 5.2x 7.2x 3.8x 4.7x 5.3x 2.1x 5.9x 4.8x 5.7x 2.7x
6.8x 8.4x 10.1x 7.0x 8.6x 9.5x 10.6x 13.1x 5.8x 9.7x 12.7x 5.6x 11.5x 10.7x 11.3x 8.5x
4.7x
Channel Vas Kevro Primedia Ster Kinekor Gammatek Synerlytic Twinsaver Autozone Vertice Eazi Echotel MTN Bevco Waco RTT Neopak Fund VI / VII Ai Fund Mid Market Fund Implied
- - - - EV / EBIAT
Implied = 8.1x
Portfolio company - market implied valuations
M a r k e t i m p l i e d v a l u a t i o n s
Period-end market price implies the following EV / EBITDA multiples and EV / EBIAT multiples
18
C O N T E N T S
Introduction Portfolio overview Valuation overview Liquidity analysis Brait transaction
19
* Available liquidity = Cash plus Debt Facility less Net Investment outflows / Realisation inflows
A v a i l a b l e l i q u i d i t y a n d o u t l o o k
Liquidity profile analysis based on current commitments (post Brait)
20
3,800 3,503 290 297 1,638 277 733 500 65 (770) (538) (306) (303) (229) 25 153 346 649 2,823
765 380 420 766 3,360
(1,750) (750) 250 1,250 2,250 3,250 4,250 (1,750) (750) 250 1,250 2,250 3,250 4,250
Total commitments Fees / undrawn adj Net commitments Invested capital Current cash Rights issue Base facility Treasury shares Commitment gap H2 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 Realisations Existing outflows Available liquidity 42% 27% 12% 12% 7%
% outflows by year
H2 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
C O N T E N T S
Introduction Portfolio overview Valuation overview Liquidity analysis
21
Brait transaction
E t h o s k e y d e l i v e r a b l e s
Ethos’ key deliverables pre and post transaction completion
Man anagem gement t Compa pany
- Finalise
e the operating ng model and integrati ration
- n of the Brait team
- Provide stability and clarity to underlying portfo
folio company ny boards and managem emen ent
Brait it
- Structural
ral considera erations
- ns
✓ Create alignmen ent betwee een shareholders, Board and the Advisor ✓ Cost optimisat ation
- n plan
✓ Redomicil ciliat ation of Brait Malta and reconstitu stitution
- n of Brait Mauritius
us Board
- Debt struct
cture ure ✓ Finalise the debt agreem ement ents ✓ Focus on de de-gear aring ng the BML facility as a key priority ✓ Balance cash flow and liquidity managem ement ent plan with the overall game plan for Brait
Brait it Portfol folio io Compa panie ies
- Stakehol
holder er alignment nt around nd revised d value realisation
- n strateg
egy
- Executive and shareholder alignment on strateg
egic game plans
- Execut
ution
- n of value realisat
ation n plans over 3-5 years
22
Stuart rt MacK cKenzie nzie Investment Team Board
(alt. Peter Hayward-Butt)
Rolf Hartm rtmann Investment Team Board Joao Rodrigues Investment Team
R e s o u r c e a l l o c a t i o n
Resource Allocation
Ethos will appoint Senior Ethos Executives to key positions, alongside the Brait Executives Ethos
- s Value
lue Add dd and d Analy alytica tical l Supp pport t
New Look, DGB & Consol
23
Anthonie ie de Beer Investment Team Board Bruce ce Baisle sley Investment Team Board James s Newman Investment Team Board Pete ter r Hayward rd-Butt Butt Board
(alt. Stuart MacKenzie)
Jonatha than Matt tthe hews Investment Team Board Rolf Hartm rtmann Investment Team Board Glynn n Potgie iete ter Investment Team Pete ter r Hayward rd-Butt Butt Board
(alt. Stuart MacKenzie)
Stuart t MacKe cKenzie zie Investment Team Bruce ce Baisle ley Investment Team Pete ter r Hayward rd-Butt Butt James s Newman Investment team Investment team
R38.00 R17.16 R6.60 R7.99
Ethos NAV / Share (pre rights issue) Ethos NAV / Share (post rights issue) Rights Offer In-price
10,547 6,905 1,728 10,591 4,758 375
NAV Net debt Other investments Virgin Premier Iceland
Effective entry multiples for Ethos Capital
Brait valuation overview
Discounts*
8.0x 6.9x 6.0x
EV/EBITDA multiples
Brait Sept NAV and transaction pricing
(37%) (45%) (86%)
Other investments
E t h o s C a p i t a l e n t r y v a l u a t i o n
24
* Discounts to latest Brait NAV published as at September 2019
V a l u e c r e a t i o n a p p r o a c h
Strategic Game Plan – Value creation approach
An analysis of each business by financial performance / outlook, competitive landscape, strategy implementation, valuation outlook and exit readiness will determine the Brait game plan
What at is the e outlo look
- k fo
for va valuation tions s and exit opt ptio ions in the mediu ium te term? Valu luation tion outlook look – Baseline the current Net Realisable Value of each asset – Assess the outlook for key valuation drivers (profitability, cashflow yield and multiple) – Ascertain where the business is in terms of the sector cycle Exit opt ption
- ns
– Critical assessment of the likely exit alternatives – SOTP valuation versus the whole – Capacity of the buyer universe to execute – What is required to deliver an optimal exit over a 3-5 year timeframe Valu luation tion and d exit consi sider eratio ations How
- w are each
ch of the portf tfol
- lio
io compan anies ies positio itioned d in te terms s of: Finan ancia cial l perfo forman ance ce – Historic key value driver performance and outlook for these – Assessing the tangible growth opportunities and investment / timeframe required – Balance sheet optimisation plan Competitiv petitive e positio itionin ing / market t outlo tlook
- k
– Is the outlook for the business (competitive landscape, tail / headwinds) positive or negative – Assessment of the company’s sustainable “right to win” Strategic tegic implem lemen enta tation tion – Is the strategy appropriate for the company’s financial performance and market conditions – Does the strategy align with Brait’s new medium-term focus – Are the strategies monetizable in the timeframe to exit Managem gemen ent t and d Board – Ensure that we have management incentivised and aligned to deliver the agreed strategy – Capacitate the boards with the right skills / capabilities to support the business Operatio ational, al, strategi ategic c and manage agemen ent t consi sider eratio ations
25
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