in a Growth Network Keynote Speech Manila, September 12, 2017 ASEAN - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

ASEAN at 50: Building Partnerships in a Growth Network

Keynote Speech

Manila, September 12, 2017

Keynote Speech by Dr. Thierry Apoteker

• 1. Globalization (as you new it) is dead, Long Live

“Globalnection” (a fully inter-connected world changing most of the production and distribution rules… hence economic measures and trajectories)

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• 2. Regionalization as the optimal compromise ahead:

checking ASEAN metrics gives a half-empty, half-full glass with growing lead-role of China

• 3. Conclusions for business leaders and policy makers:

Revisiting the Rodrick Triangle

ASEAN at 50: Building Partnerships in a Growth Network Keynote Speech

Keynote Speech by Dr. Apoteker

• 1. Globalization is dead,

Long Live “Globalnection”

Keynote Speech by Dr. Thierry Apoteker

Changing patterns of globalization

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• 1. Global trade in goods will not register the same drivers

as in 1990-2010, though services take part of the slack

• 2. FDI and corporate integration challenged by relocation

and technological innovations

• 3. Exchange of data is exploding, as the ability of people to

get huge amount of information (fake and true) instantaneously

• 4. Empowerment of individuals: from Walras dream of

perfectly fluid market price mechanisms to individuals as contributors to much larger number of steps in global value / service chains

Keynote Speech by Dr. Thierry Apoteker

Changing patterns of globalization

Long cycles for trade in goods

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Source: Economic Globalization since 1795: structures and cycles in the modern world-system, Christopher Chase-Dunn, Yukio Kawano & Benjamin Brewer

Average Openness Trade Globalization (Weighted and Unweighted) 5 year moving average

Keynote Speech by Dr. Thierry Apoteker

Changing patterns of globalization

Changing regime and structure for trade

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World volume of Exports of goods & services growth Average yearly growth by period Structural changes in different types of value- added creation activities at the global level between 2011 and 2015 Share in 2015 minus in 2011 (percentage points) Number of interventions recorded by Global Trade Alert

Source: IMF/WEO

Keynote Speech by Dr. Thierry Apoteker

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Changing patterns of globalization

Growing role of services

Decomposition of services value added in world gross exports by manufacturing industry, 2011

Keynote Speech by Dr. Thierry Apoteker

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Global cross border capital flows M&A versus Greenfield FDI

Changing patterns of globalization

Major shifts in capital flows

Keynote Speech by Dr. Thierry Apoteker

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Changing patterns of globalization

Goods and capital replaced by data?

Global flows of data have outplaced traditional trade and financial flows

Keynote Speech by Dr. Thierry Apoteker

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Changing patterns of globalization

Global trends affecting ASEAN process

The 10 trends have important implications for the ASEAN Connectivity agenda

Keynote Speech by Dr. Apoteker

• 2. Regionalization as the
• ptimal compromise

ahead

Keynote Speech by Dr. Thierry Apoteker

ASEAN regional integration process: reality check

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• 1. Traditional trade and investment metrics: still a long way

to go, particularly on services and TBT

• 2. Other angles: communication and transport, corporate

behavior and networks show stronger signs of regional integration

• 3. Other angles: geographic versus institutional integration

highlights the global Asian dynamics in which ASEAN

• perates

Keynote Speech by Dr. Thierry Apoteker

ASEAN integration process

Progress on ASEAN economic integration by sector

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Keynote Speech by Dr. Thierry Apoteker

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ASEAN integration process

Stronger signs of integration improvement for logistics

Logistics, cost and efficiency

Keynote Speech by Dr. Thierry Apoteker

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ASEAN integration process

Large differences in connectedness

Member States vary in their technology “readiness” and usage Selected indicators from the Networked Readiness Index 2016

Keynote Speech by Dr. Thierry Apoteker

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ASEAN integration process

Clusters of business systems

Dendrogram of Clusters of Asian Business Systems, China and India Split into Private and State-Owned Business Systems XXP=Private, XXS=State Owned

Keynote Speech by Dr. Thierry Apoteker

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Intermediate Goods Final Goods

Share of intra-regional trade at broad regional dimensions (% of total)

ASEAN integration process

Enlarging geography

Keynote Speech by Dr. Apoteker

• 3. Conclusions for

business leaders and policy makers

Keynote Speech by Dr. Thierry Apoteker

Revisiting the Rodrick Triangle

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• 1. Dani Rodrik is Professor of International Political

Economy at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School

• f Government. He is the author of The Globalization Paradox: Democracy

and the Future of the World Economy and Economics Rules: The Rights and Wrongs

• f the Dismal Science. His newest book Straight Talk on Trade: Ideas for a Sane

World Economy will be published in Fall 2017.

• 2. If “deep integration” provides the best macro efficiency, it

comes with significant political and policy consequences.

• 3. In particular, he insisted on the need for a “compromise”

associating the best integration process with sovereign state “policy independence” and the political wills / expressions of local populations

Keynote Speech by Dr. Thierry Apoteker

Revisiting the Rodrick Triangle

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Deep Economic Integration Nation State and sovereignty

Golden Straight Jacket Global Federalism Bretton Woods

• r EU

Compromises Independent Isolationism

Domestic Politics & Democracy

Keynote Speech by Dr. Thierry Apoteker

Revisiting the Rodrick Triangle

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Deep Economic Integration Nation State and sovereignty

Consistent policy / business actions? Delegation of powers / specific issues, political representation at regional level? What for ASEAN? More efforts for fairer distribution of integration benefits?

Domestic Politics & Democracy

Keynote Speech by Dr. Apoteker

THANK YOU FOR YOUR VERY PATIENT AND KIND ATTENTION

TAC ECONOMICS is an independent research and advisory group based in Europe and focusing on top-down approaches to macroeconomic risks and

• pportunities

Please feel free to contact us Thierry Da (Senior Advisor), thierry.da@taceconomics.com Morgane Lohézic, Head of Development and Communication morgane.lohezic@taceconomics.com Tel: +33 2 99 39 31 40 – www.taceconomics.com