Implementation of National Transfer Accounts (NTA) in Cambodia by - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
NINTH MEETING OF THE WORKING GROUP ON MACROECONOMIC ASPECTS OF INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSFERS, 3-8 JUNE 2013 IN BARCELONA, SPAIN Implementation of National Transfer Accounts (NTA) in Cambodia by Mr. NOR VANNDY Deputy Director Department
NINTH MEETING OF THE WORKING GROUP ON MACROECONOMIC ASPECTS OF INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSFERS, 3-8 JUNE 2013 IN BARCELONA, SPAIN
by
Deputy Director Department NIS/MOP, Cambodia
NIS/MOP Cambodia
Introduction to NTA of Cambodia Cambodian Population Structure Change,1950-2050 Finding Results: Major NTA indicators Conclusion Policy Response
2
NIS/MOP Cambodia
National Institute of Statistics (NIS) of Cambodia constructed a framework of NTA compilation since 2011. NIS has compiled the NTA of Cambodia as of 2009 in collaboration with the Nihon University Population Research Institute (NUPRI) to Cambodia joined
3
NIS/MOP Cambodia
NTA of Cambodia is compiled in consistency with the National Accounts System of Cambodia to explore the major indicators such: labor income, consumption by population age structure. The first demographic dividends, economic life cycle and support ratio by age is also estimated at this round. NTA of Cambodia in 2009 is recently updated for experimental estimates of per Capita labor income and consumption by age, urban and rural.
4
NIS/MOP Cambodia
5
NIS/MOP Cambodia
6
1950
250 200 150 100 50 50 100 150 200 250 Male Female
NIS/MOP Cambodia
7
1960
250 200 150 100 50 50 100 150 200 250 Male Female
NIS/MOP Cambodia
8
1970
250 200 150 100 50 50 100 150 200 250 Male Female
NIS/MOP Cambodia
9
1980
250 200 150 100 50 50 100 150 200 250 Male Female
NIS/MOP Cambodia
10
1990
250 200 150 100 50 50 100 150 200 250 Male Female
NIS/MOP Cambodia
11
2010
250 200 150 100 50 50 100 150 200 250 Male Female
NIS/MOP Cambodia
12
2020
250 200 150 100 50 50 100 150 200 250 Male Female
NIS/MOP Cambodia
13
2030
250 200 150 100 50 50 100 150 200 250 Male Female
NIS/MOP Cambodia
14
2040
250 200 150 100 50 50 100 150 200 250 Male Female
NIS/MOP Cambodia
15
2050
250 200 150 100 50 50 100 150 200 250 Male Female
NIS/MOP Cambodia
16
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 20 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 25 28 29 80 80 80 79 79 78 78 77 75 72 71
Urban Rural
NIS/MOP Cambodia
17
NIS/MOP Cambodia
18 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 TotCons'000KHR LaborInc '000KHR
NIS/MOP Cambodia
Per Capita labor incomes and consumptions by age, urban and rural in 2009, value in riels (Experimental Estimates)
19
NIS/MOP Cambodia
20
0.72 0.72 0.75 0.73 0.71 0.78 0.82 0.82 0.81 0.78 0.77
0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
NIS/MOP Cambodia
21
1.57
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
NIS/MOP Cambodia
22
The support ratio and the first demographic dividend are low which may indicate that productivity in term of labor income is very low because the number of effective consumers are larger than the number of effective producers, which affects economic growth. However, starting 2020, Cambodia will have the potential to increase the number of effective producers and labor income (productivity) because of the age structural changes in the population.
NIS/MOP Cambodia
23
Since the proportion of the working age group is
demographic dividend to increase its economic growth. To create jobs for Cambodian young working group and also make balance population in the country through the promotion of foreign direct investment (FDI) and local investments such small and medium enterprises. Productivity (labor income) in Cambodia is still low, especially in urban and rural area. Thus, investment in human capital development (education, health etc.) and utilization are very important.
NIS/MOP Cambodia
24
Encourage capital accumulation during working ages to support retirement consumption during older ages. Cambodia will begin to experience rapid ageing in the not too distant future (will increase from 3.4% in 2009 to 4.5% in 2020 and to 9.6% in 2050) and the current family support system will undergo change. Thus, it is necessary to put in place policies to meet the social security needs of the elderly.
NIS/MOP Cambodia
25
Social security system, welfare services and other services for elderly should be strengthened and expanded. The aging population in rural areas in Cambodia is rapidly increasing due to the out-migration of younger aged adults. Therefore, special programs should be implemented to support older adults in rural areas.
NIS/MOP Cambodia
26