Impact of Climate Change and Mediterranean Sea Level Rise on Egypt - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Impact of Climate Change and Mediterranean Sea Level Rise on Egypt and the National Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation Presented by

Khaled Kheireldin, Ph.D., PE Director of Climate Change Research Institute Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation Egypt

Definition of: Climate Change

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limate te change is is a long long-term change in in th the stat tatistical dis istribution of

• f weather patterns ov
• ver periods of
• f tim

time th that t ra range fro from decades to to mil illions of

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It may ay be a a ch change in in the the av average weather con conditions or

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a change in in th the dis istribution of

• f weather events wit

ith re respect t to to an n average, for for example, gr greater or

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fewer extr treme weather

• events. Cli

limate te change may be lim limited to to a specifi fic re regi gion, or

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may oc

• ccur across th

the whole Eart rth.

Global Warming of Climate

• Warming of the climate

is definitely occurring and can be observed by the:

– Increases in global sea and air temperatures – Widespread melting of snow and ice – Rising global sea level

The land-ocean temperature index combines data on air temperatures over land with data

• n sea surface temperatures. (“Mean” is the midpoint between the highest and lowest.) The

black line shows the annual changes; the red line tracks 5-year periods. Source: NASA Goddard institute for Space Studies. (January 11, 2008)

Precipitation form, timing and quantity Sea level rise Air temperature

Impacts of Climate Change

• City of Alexandria from 1957 to 2011

ينورتكللبا عقوملا تانايبلا ردصم http://www.tutiempo.net

y = -0.1405x + 317.87 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Days Year

No of Rainfall Days

y = 0.0098x + 1.108 19 19.5 20 20.5 21 21.5 22 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Temprature C Year

Avergae Temprature

Evidence of Climate Change in Egypt

Port Said City at the Entrance of Suez Canal

ينورتكللبا عقوملا تانايبلا ردصم http://www.tutiempo.net

y = -0.0907x + 196.46 5 10 15 20 25 30 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 No of Days Year

No of Rainy Days

y = 0.0076x + 6.4716 20.5 21 21.5 22 22.5 23 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Temprature C) Year

Average Temprature

Land Sunsidence Global Warming Causes Snow Melting SLR Land Subsidence SLR Soil Consolidation due to Gas and Oil Extraction

Vulnerable Areas (Delta, Shore Line, Islands)

Vulnerabilities Sectors and Zones

1- Most vulnerable sectors to climate change are: 1)Coastal Zones 2) Water Resources 3) Agriculture (14% of GDP) 2- Most Vulnerable Areas:

• Delta Area: Most Populated Area
• 40 Million are living in Nile Delta
• Coastal Zones (Mediterranean and
• Red Sea Coasts)
• Upper Nile Plateau

Population Density in Northern Delta Governorates

Population Density in Northern Delta Governorates

Population Density in Northern Delta Governorates

Population Density in Northern Delta Governorates

Population Density in Northern Delta Governorates

Approach for Studying the Impact of Climate Change on Egypt

Impact of Climate Change on the Different Sectors in Egypt

Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources Sector Inflow to High Aswan Dam

يبسيسملا افلاجيرج وكونيرا نوزاما وكسيسنارف وياس رجينلااتلوف لاغنسلا ةيولموبس نيارلا لينلا برعلا طش سودنا انشرك يرافادوج يداناهام ناجج ماكاحام جنوكيم ايارف وياش ديرجنايجوز جنايج جناش

ٍSignificant Impact High Level Impact Moderate Impact

Impact of Climate Change on Coastal Resources Sector

Impact of Climate Change on Coastal Resources Sector

Impact of Climate Change on Coastal Resources Sector (cont’d)

Impacts of SLR and the vulnerability of coastal communities, economic sectors and natural systems in the areas of Ras El Bar, New Damietta City and Gamasa

land affected by high levels of groundwater until 2100 Cultivated land affected by high levels of groundwater until 2100

Adaptation

• The UNFCCC defines it as actions taken to

help communities and ecosystems cope with changing climate condition

• The IPCC describes it as adjustment in natural
• r human systems in response to actual or

expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial

• pportunities

Elements of adaptation

• Observation
• Assessment
• Planning
• Implementation
• Monitoring and Evaluation

Observation & Assessment

Certain & Un-Certain Future Challenges Facing WR in Egypt

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• 2015

2025 2050 2075 2100 Estimated Rise in mean air Temperature (oC)

• 1.0

1.7 2.5 3.5

Estimated % change in mean ETo & Water Requirements

• 4 %

8 % 13 % 18 %

Estimated Population (million)

• 104

145 191 237

Estimated % change in Nile Flows Drying Scenario

• 6 %
• 15 %
• 20 %
• 31 %

Estimated % change in Nile Flows Wetting Scenario

• +10%

+21% +24%

+27% Rough Estimate of Reduction (Bil m3/yr)

3 5 8 10.5 13

Sea Level Rise

0.1-.22 .24-.5 0.4-.8 .5-.95

• Since we do not know what climate scenario would prevail in future, there will be

UNERTAINTY in the developed adaptation strategy.

• To Reduce this UnCertainty, we will considerd two average Scenarios:

1- An average range for the Wetting Nile flow scenarios ( + 27% for 2100) , and 2- An average one for the Drying Nile flow scenarios ( - 31% for 2100)

• Therefore Two Sets of estimated Future Water Budget Trends ( 2025, 2050, 2075 & 2100)

are developed (one for the Drying scenario and one for the Wetting Scenario)

MhmdNour: – Mainstreaming CC Adaptation Strategy

Assessment

• Future Population are based on those of the Water Holding Company
• Do not expect Increase in Nile Flows in the near future, situation my improve in future
• Transbounday are based on very little information
• Deep GW is non-renewable and has limitations
• Rainfall Harvesting has relatively little contribution
• Desalination will have a significant role w.r.t .drinking water
• Shallow GW in the Delta is renewable & related to Nile flow and irrigation efficiency
• Agricultural Drainage Re-Use is related to Irrigation efficiency and Nile Flows
• Treated Waste Water will have increased contribution with increased municipal allocation
• Drainage Water disposal to Sea is related to water availability but a must for salt balance
• Sea Water Agriculture is still in research stage and is promising should have more attention
• Water Quality: It is assumed that all possible measures will be taken to protect water bodies

Main Simplifying Assumptions used in developing these trends

20 40 60 80 100 Billion m^3/year 2050 Dry (-15%) 2050 Wet (21%) 20 40 60 80 100 Drinking (Fresh Water Only) Industry Agriculture (Adjusted) Drainage to Sea

• Evap. Losses
• Env. Balance

Total Water Usage or Allocation Billion m^3/year 2050 Dry (-15%) 2050 Wet (21%)

Planning

Risks to Egypt Water Security

• R1: Drought and Water Scarcity
• R2: Floods
• R3: High Water Consumption
• R4: Sea Level Rise
• Each of these Risks has its Consequences
• Adaptation Measures are Defined & Classified

for these Consequences

Adaptation Measures are Defined for the Consequences & Classified according to :

• Category : (Infra-structure, Managerial, or Technical)
• Scale and Size: (Regional, National , or Local)
• Technical Feasibility: (Low, Moderate, or High)
• Adaptive Capacity: (Low, Moderate, or High)
• Potential Cost: (Low, Moderate, or High)
• Time Span: (Short, Medium, or Long)
• Response: (Proactive, or Reactive) , and
• Regret: (Low regret, No regret, or Regrettable)

• Developing Implementation Plans

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• Information needs

Impact assessment Vulnerability assessment Financial arrangements

Evaluate Policy, legal and institutional framework Understand the vulnerability Development of measures

Information needs Impact assessment Vulnerability assessment Financial arrangements

Evaluate Policy, legal and institutional framework Understand the vulnerability Development of measures

The Dynamic nature of climate change adaptation strategies

Next Step

Budget Details for different risks

(Personal Assessment)

Budget Details for different risks

(Personal Assessment)

• Total Budget , CC Adaptation Strategy , (Personal Assessment)

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0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

Estimated Climate Change Adaptation Budget till 2050

for the 4 Defined Rrisks (Billion LE)

Now we are standing Here

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Where we are Standing NOW,

We still at the very Beginning; BUT on the Road, and we have to start Acting

ROAD MAP for Implementing CC Aaptation Strategy

• The Road Map is a set of forward looking strategies within a

time frame,

• A road map must be: S M A R T

[ Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic, Time‐bound]

• The Road Map Should Involve all stakeholders like:
• Policy makers and planners
• Research and Educational Institutions
• Community Organizations
• Development Institutions
• Private Companies
• 4 Steps to formulate the Road Map …..

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Guidelines for Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation in the Water Sector

• 4 Main Steps
• Flow Diagram of Mainstreaming CC Adaptation

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Institutinal Analysis National Plans Stakeholders Identifiction Capacity Needs Building on Existing Systems Governance Budgeting Capacity Building

Stakeholders Involvement

STEP 1: SITUATION ANALYSIS STEP 2: ENABLING ENVIRONMENT

STEP 3: PLANNIING &

POLICY STRUCTURE

STEP 4: INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURE Public Awareness Mainstreaming Team Identify Entry points for Mainstreaming Capacity Needs Climate - Proofed National Plans Stakeholders Identification

The Way Forward

• Create informed consensus on climate change risks, objectives and

policies.

• Define the roles and responsibilities of all stakeholders (sectoral

agencies, different ministries and different levels implementing and evaluating bodies).

• Strengthen the networks in Knowledge creation and dissemination
• Network among capacity building agencies and institutions
• Implementing suitable support system
• Feedback to national policies, state policies and international

negotiations

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Adaptation Process Example: Coastal Zone

• Sand Dunes systems should be treated as the first defensive line

for the Nile Delta.

• Coastal Lakes are appropriate adaptive measure against sea level

rise.

• International Coastal Road may be considered as the second

protection measure and studies to support it are urgently required.

• Coastal Protection work needs regular maintenance and should

be considered in any coastal zone management plans.

• The Northwest Coast extended from Alexandria to the Egyptian-

Libyan borders is not vulnerable as it has elevation more than 10 m above average sea water level.

1- Utilizing Dredged Bed Material from Damietta Port Approaching Channel in Beach Nourishment

Proposed nourished areas

2- Coastal Sand Dunes Stabilizing

International coastal road Sand Dunes At the West Side of Rosseta Region

Manzala Lake management

According to DO According to NH3 Sampling locations Coastal Lakes are appropriate adaptive measure against sea level rise.

3- Coastal Lakes as an Appropriate Adaptive Measure against Sea Level Rise

Ras-El-Bar City shore before Shore protection Ras-El-Bar City shore After Shore protection

4- Managed Alignment

Thank you