Immigration after Brexit: law, policy, and economics Wednesday 27 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Immigration after Brexit:

law, policy, and economics

Wednesday 27 February 2019

@UKandEU UKandEU.ac.uk

British Academy, Carlton House Terrace

EU Citizens and UK citizens: Acquired rights after Brexit

Steve Peers February 2019

Withdrawal Agreement

• Agreed, November 2018
• Citizens’ rights, separation issues, transition

period, financial settlement, governance, Irish border backstop, dispute settlement, ‘separation’ issues

• Needs ratification by EP and UK Parliament
• Political declaration on future relationship

separate, but referred to

What if no withdrawal agreement?

• Option A: ring-fenced treaty between EU/UK on

citizens’ rights (and possibly other issues)

• Commission ruled out – July 2018 Brexit paper
• Option B: matching legislation on UK and EU side

to implement WA de facto

• No sign of EU-wide legislation, except social

security

• Would not address cross-border issues

No deal scenario

• Option C: uncoordinated action (or inaction?) by

UK and individual Member States (some ordinary EU law on non-EU migrants will apply)

• Unlikely to match WA as such
• Many Member States have tabled plans
• UK: Withdrawal Act retains current law;

Immigration Bill and proposed new secondary law

• Immigration Rules amended to give effect to WA

and side commitments (Singh cases)

Withdrawal Agreement

• CJEU jurisdiction re UK for 8 years after end of

transition period

• Independent body to assist EU27 citizens in

UK, similar powers to Commission

• References to EU law must be interpreted the

same way, consistently with CJEU case law

• Same legal effect as EU law; UK must adopt

Act of Parliament to give effect to it

Withdrawal Agreement

• Free movement applies to end of the

transition period

• end of 2020; but possible extension
• Applies to EU27/UK citizens who moved

before that point, and family members

• Condition for family: already resident, or

already a family member, or born/adopted by someone already a qualifying family member

Withdrawal Agreement

• Residence rights retained as under

Treaties/citizens Directive

• No discretion other than applying the

conditions in those rules

• Permanent residence the same rules: lost

after five years’ departure (rather than two)

• Change of status possible, ie worker/student
• “settled status” process; practical questions?

Withdrawal Agreement

• Criminal behaviour leading to expulsion:

assessed by EU standards if it applies before the end of the transition period, by national standards afterward

• Rights of appeal in EU legislation still apply
• Access to employment and equal treatment

rules still apply

Withdrawal Agreement

• Other provisions:
• Recognition of qualifications
• Social security coordination
• But not free movement within EU for UK

citizens – ie rights in one Member State only

• Nb possible to become long-term resident

under EU law, conferring limited free movement rights

Contact details

• Professor of Law, University of Essex
• Email: speers@essex.ac.uk
• Twitter: @StevePeers
• Blog: EU Law Analysis
• Facebook blog page:

https://www.facebook.com/eulawanalysis/

• LinkedIn: happy to connect

Immigration White Paper and the Future of Immigration Policy

Madeleine Sumption Director, Migration Observatory February 27, 2019

Temporary migration

EU migration – short term vs long term

14 50 100 150 200 250 300 YE June 2006 YE June 2007 YE June 2008 YE June 2009 YE June 2010 YE June 2011 YE June 2012 YE June 2013 YE June 2014 YE June 2015 YE June 2016 YE June 2017 YE June 2018 Short-term flows Long-term flows

Source: Migration Observatory analysis of International Passenger Survey.

EU migration: short term vs long term

15 50 100 150 200 250 300 YE June 2006 YE June 2007 YE June 2008 YE June 2009 YE June 2010 YE June 2011 YE June 2012 YE June 2013 YE June 2014 YE June 2015 YE June 2016 YE June 2017 YE June 2018 Short-term flows Long-term flows Short-term stocks, work+study

Source: Migration Observatory analysis of International Passenger Survey.

EU migration – short term vs long term

16 93,000 597,000 2,439,000 Short-term EU population (YE June 2016) Total employed EU born arrived in last 5 years (2017) Total employed EU born (2017)

Source: Annual Population Survey, 2017; International Passenger Survey, YE June 2016

Effects of temporary requirement

• Changes size and composition of population
• Varying effects on:
• Rights/entitlements
• Public finances
• Employers
• Communities

17

The role of employers

Effects of employer sponsorship

• Management tool for government
• Disincentive / bureaucratic impediment
• Increases employers’ control over workers

19

Politics

@jdportes UKandEU.ac.uk

Immigration policy and the UK economy Jonathan Portes King’s College London & UKandEU March 2019

Economic impacts – is there a consensus?

• Labour market: employment, wages and institutions
• Productivity and training
• Public finances/public services
• Subjective well-being

Net migration to UK by citizenship

White Paper: “Future skills-based system”

• End free movement:
• extend current “Tier 2” system for non-EEA nationals

to EU citizens: work permits with skills, salary (£30K??), qualification thresholds

• Remove cap.
• Sectoral/seasonal scheme for agricultural work, but

no or limited other schemes

• Temporary (one year) low skilled work visas

Segmenting working migrants..

Modelled impact of White Paper proposals

Macroeconomic impacts

White Paper: issues and implications

• Impact on skilled EU migration of removing free

movement

• Liberalisation/streamlining of Tier 2 route
• Salary threshold
• Medium and low skill immigration: sectoral issues
• Temporary visas: worst of all worlds

@jdportes UKandEU.ac.uk

Immigration policy and the UK economy Jonathan Portes King’s College London & UKandEU March 2019

Migration Advisory Committee 2019

Jennifer Bradley Head of Secretariat

Conclusion on Impacts

33

Hard to summarise but overall:

• Have been impacts, both positive and negative, but they are modest: EU

migration has been neither very bad nor very good.

• Need to put impacts in perspective – fall in the value of £ post-referendum

led to 1.7% rise in prices - probably bigger then impact on labour market of all EU migration post-2004.

• Nothing in report means potential gains from going it alone on migration

(ending freedom of movement) can necessarily offset substantial weakening

• f trade ties with the EU (though we don’t know what those are).

White Paper

34

• WP modelling did not look at non-EEA migration – a big unknown.
• Counter-factual is free movement – MAC EEA report set out how the UK

could do better than FOM by selecting with high-skilled bias.

• Future role of the MAC – expanding into policy evaluation; more regular

review of the SOL and possibly other areas of the system.

Salary Thresholds

35

• MAC recommendation (one of 13) to keep them the same as now. Not the

main focus of the EEA report (retain high-skilled focus and treat all migrants alike in the first instance of a global immigration system).

• White Paper focussed on £30,000; not the MAC – or where the MAC did then

as a short-hand for a rather complicated picture.

• Also reducing skill level to medium still retain salary threshold – to ensure not

under-cutting.

Salary Thresholds

36

• Appendix J - Public Sector pay scales lower, new entrants lower and some

‘experienced worker rates’ higher depending on the ‘Appropriate salary rate’.

Band or equivalent England Scotland Wales Northern Ireland Band 3 £16,968 £17,760 £16,764 £16,597 Band 4 £19,409 £20,302 £19,410 £19,217 Band 5 £22,128 £22,440 £22,129 £21,909 Band 6 £26,565 £26,830 £26,566 £26,301 Band 7 £31,696 £32,013 £31,697 £31,383 Band 8a £40,428 £40,833 £40,429 £40,028 Band 8b £47,092 £47,562 £47,092 £46,626 Band 8c £56,665 £57,232 £56,666 £56,103 Band 8d £67,247 £68,599 £67,920 £67,248 Band 9 £79,415 £81,011 £80,210 £79,415

February 27 @resfoundation 37

Immigration after Brexit

Immigration policy and the UK economy Torsten Bell Resolution Foundation

38

What are the economic impacts of migration?

@resfoundation

Labour market focus Countries can choose different migration regimes Pros and cons exist, but can be overstated Getting from A to B is worth paying attention to

39

Migration has been a big part of labour market change in UK…

Change in number of people in employment since Q4 2007

@resfoundation

Notes/Source: RF analysis of ONS, Labour Force Survey

40

…and London in particular

@resfoundation

Notes/Source: RF analysis of ONS, Labour Force Survey

Net change in workforce participation in London

41

Change is coming – even without a new regime

Annual percentage change in the number of people born in the EU in employment in the UK

@resfoundation

Notes/Source: RF analysis of ONS

EU referendum

• 5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

42

Change is coming – to migrant reliant sectors…

Top 15 sectors for migrants as a share of total employment

@resfoundation

Notes/ Source: RF analysis of ONS, Labour Force Survey

Industry EU14 EU8 EU2 RoW All migrants Manufacture of food products 4.0% 24.1% 1.8% 11.2% 41.1% Domestic personnel 5.7% 10.2% 6.3% 17.2% 39.3% Undifferentiated goods 4.2% 13.4% 4.2% 13.8% 35.6% Manufacture of wearing apparel 3.1% 6.7% 0.8% 21.0% 31.6% Accommodation 4.5% 11.4% 3.1% 11.6% 30.5% Food and beverage service activities 4.5% 5.4% 1.6% 18.5% 30.1% Extraterritorial organisations 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 25.3% 29.6% Security & investigation activities 1.5% 2.9% 0.7% 22.1% 27.2% Services to buildings and landscape 3.4% 7.4% 2.8% 11.9% 25.5% Computer programming and consultancy 5.1% 1.6% 0.6% 18.0% 25.4% Warehousing & support for transport 2.0% 10.9% 1.7% 10.3% 25.0% Scientific research and development 6.4% 1.8% 0.7% 15.8% 24.6% Land transport inc via pipelines 1.3% 3.4% 1.0% 18.2% 23.9% Residential care activities 1.9% 2.8% 1.3% 15.3% 21.2% Manufacture of textiles 1.9% 7.6% 0.5% 10.9% 20.8% Share of total employment (%)

43

…especially those with faster churn

Share of employees that moved jobs out of the sector per year (average, 2014 - 2016)

@resfoundation

Notes/ Source: RF analysis of ONS, Labour Force Survey

44

It’s not just sectors reliant on migration – think labour mobility

@resfoundation

Notes/Source: RF analysis of ONS, Labour Force Survey

Share of people moving region and changing jobs accounted for by migrants

45

Concluding thoughts

@resfoundation

Labour markets can adjust Firm level adjustment + industrial structure Interaction with NLW + auto-enrolment Implications for mobility and enforcement Brexit is about a lot more than migration…

46

Brexit is about more than just migration …

Mean household annual disposable labour income (inflation-adjusted)

@resfoundation

Notes/Source: OBR, ONS

Immigration after Brexit:

law, policy, and economics

Wednesday 27 February 2019

@UKandEU UKandEU.ac.uk

British Academy, Carlton House Terrace