ILO training 8 December Introduction to Climate Change, UNFCCC, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

ILO training 8 December Introduction to Climate Change, UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol and the Climate Change negotiations

Ivo Besselink UNDP Asia-Pacific Resource Centre Bangkok Ivo.besselink@undp.org

• Contents

Green jobs in the context of climate change:

• Introduction in Climate Change
• Introduction to UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol and CDM
• Introduction to the ongoing climate change

negotiations

• Contents

Green jobs in the context of climate change:

• Introduction in Climate Change
• Introduction to UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol and CDM
• Introduction to the ongoing climate change negotiations

• Emission of Greenhouse Gases

Greenhouse Gases (GHG):

• CO2 (carbon dioxide)
• CH4 (methane)
• N2O (Nitrous oxide)
• Etc.

CO2 CH4 CO2 CO2

• CO2 concentration scenarios

• The Greenhouse Effect

N2O CH4 CO2

• Global Warming

Rise in temperature

• Global average temperatures already increased by 0,7°

C

• Predictions that the global temperature will rise by about 1.4 to 5.8°

C by the year 2100

• Climate Change and some of its effects

Droughts

Storms

Decline of winter

• Reading the Signs

.

Global mean temperature has increased 0.74 oC during 1906- 2005 and projected to be 1.8 to 5.4 oC by 2100; Sea level has risen at the rate 1.8 mm/year since 1961 and 3.1 mm/year since 1993. Likely to rise one metre by next century but with 5 or 10 times that in the following centuries; Glacier in tropical and temperate is retreating fast – Gangotri has retreated more than 76 metres from 1996 to 1999

• Pictures of the Netherlands nowadays

Land and houses lower than sea level, protected by dikes

• Picture of the Netherlands in the future?

• Projected changes (%) in run-off, 21st century.

White areas are where less than two-thirds of models agree, hatched are where 90% of models agree (IPCC SYR)

Key impacts stem from reduced water availability.

• Contents

Green jobs in the context of climate change:

• Introduction in Climate Change
• Introduction to UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol and CDM
• Introduction to the ongoing climate change negotiations

• A bit of History

Rio Earth Summit (1992) Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

Parties to the biodiversity treaty undertake to conserve species, transfer technology, and share in a fair way the benefits arising from the commercial use of genetic resources Parties to the desertification agreement carry out national, sub-regional, and regional action programmes and seek to address causes of land degradation ranging from international trade patterns to unsustainable land management. The Convention has the goal of preventing "dangerous" human interference with the climate system.

Join Liaison Group (JLG) (2001) ‘Synergies’

Secretariat (Montreal) Secretariat (Bonn) Secretariat (Bonn) Montreal Protocol under Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer?

• Convention objective:

Achieve stabilization

• f greenhouse gas

concentrations in the atmosphere at a low enough level to prevent “dangerous anthropogenic Interference” with the climate system

• Allow ecosystems to

adapt naturally to climate change;

• Ensure food production

is not threatened; and

• Enable economic

development to proceed sustainably

within timeframe sufficient to

No hard, binding targets: “encouragement of industrialized countries to reduce GHG emissions” UNFCCC ratified by 194 Parties: including Thailand, USA, etc. UNFCCC (1992)

• “Common, but differentiated responsibilities”

Industrialised countries & Economies in Transition (EITs)

• Adopt policies

and measures with aim of reducing GHG emissions to 1990 levels

• EITs have “flexibility”

in commitments

Annex I Industrialised countries

• Provide financial

resources to enable developing countries to meet the costs of implementing measures

• Promote technology

transfer to EITs and non-Annex I Parties

Annex II Developing countries

• No quantitative
• bligations
• Least Developed

Countries given special consideration

Non-Annex I E.g. countries in EU, Japan, USA, etc. EIT: Romania, Latvia, etc. E.g. countries in EU, Japan, USA, etc. E.g. India, China, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, etc.

Three groups under Convention/KP

• UNFCCC bodies

United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (1992) Conference of the Parties (COP)

• prime authority of the Convention
• association of all member countries (“Parties")
• meets annually for a period of two weeks
• evaluates the status of climate change and

the effectiveness of the treaty

• examines the activities of member countries

(national communications and emissions inventories)

• considers new scientific findings
• tries to capitalize on experience as efforts to

address climate change

• prime authority of the Convention

Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI)

• counsels the COP
• n matters of

climate, environment, technology, and method.

• Meets twice a year
• helps review how

Convention is being applied, e.g. analyzing the national communications.

• deals with financial and

administrative matters (also GEF).

• meets twice a year.

Consultative Group

• f Experts on

National Communications from “non-Annex I Parties” (CGE)

• helps developing countries

prepare national reports on climate change issues Least Developed Country Expert Group (LEG) Expert Group on Technology Transfer (EGTT)

• Advises LDCs on

establishing programmes for adapting to cc

• seeks to spur the sharing
• f technology with less-

advanced nations

Sec. Sec. Sec. Sec. Sec. Sec.

Bureau of the COP

• process

management

• Other Stakeholders
• UNFCCC Secretariat (Sec.) staffed by international civil servants supports the

Convention and its supporting bodies. It makes practical arrangements for meetings, compiles and distributes statistics and information, and assists member countries in meeting their commitments under the Convention. Partner agencies:

• Global Environment Facility (GEF): which has existed since 1991 to fund

projects in developing countries that will have global environmental benefits. The job of channeling grants and loans to poor countries to help them address climate change, as called for by the Convention, has been delegated to the GEF because

• f its established expertise.
• Observers: groups and agencies allowed to attend and even speak at

international meetings, but not to participate in decision-making. E.g. intergovernmental agencies (UNDP, ILO, OPEC) (>50), non-government agencies (business interests, academic and research institutes, WWF, Oxfam, etc.) (>600) .

• IPCC

the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): provides services to the Convention, although it is not part of it, through publishing comprehensive reviews every five years of the status of climate change and climate-change science, along with special reports and technical papers on request. Established by World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in 1988 The leading scientific body for assessment of climate change

• UNFCCC bodies

United Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (1992) Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP)

• prime authority of the Protocol

Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI)

Sec. Sec. Sec.

Kyoto Protocol (1997)

And….. 3 more!

• CDM Executive Board
• Joint Implementation

Supervisory Committee (JISC)

• Compliance

Committee (CC)

Sec.

KP ratified by 192 Parties: including Thailand, but not USA (!) Bureau

• f the

CMP

First ‘baby’ of UNFCCC

• 1990, 1992: FAR

0.3 oC ↑

1995: SAR 2001: TAR

1.4-5.8oC ↑

2007: AR4

1.1-6.4oC ↑

2014: AR5 1992: Framework Convention on CC negotiated 1994: Convention enters into force 1997: Kyoto Protocol negotiated 2001: Marrakesh Accords * Kyoto Protocol “rules” * Adaptation on table 2005: Kyoto Protocol enters into force KP Working Group established 2007: Bali Road Map 2009: COP-15 Copenhagen 2010 today: COP -16 in Cancun

Science (IPCC)

Politics (UNFCCC Conference of Parties)

• 23

Greenhouse gas emissions Climate change impacts

Global Climate Change

Mitigation: reduce emissions, reduce magnitude

• f CC

(e.g.less CO2) Adaptation reduce vulnerability to CC impacts; reduce losses

What are we talking about?

Mitigation: Carbon sinks: forests and land use changes (CO2 sequestration)

linkages

• GHG Emissions or “BUSINESS

AS USUAL”

• !"#$

Year

Kyoto Protocol Binding GHG emission targets for Annex I Parties (37 industrialized countries & economies in transition) for 6 gases

Countries which accepted commitments, expressed as allowed emissions or assigned amount units (AAUs) Trading of units: ‘carbon markets’ First Commitment period

• Commitments

Why? commitment to limit GHG emission commitment to limit GHG emission Who? GHG? How much?

37 Industrialised countries and economies in transition (Annex I countries) 37 Industrialised countries and economies in transition (Annex I countries)

6 Gases: CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC, PFC, SF6 6 Gases: CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC, PFC, SF6 5.2% below 1990 level of emission 5.2% below 1990 level of emission When? 2008-2012 2008-2012 Energy, industrial processes, solvent and other product use, agriculture, and waste Energy, industrial processes, solvent and other product use, agriculture, and waste Sectors?

• Kyoto Protocol
• Under the KP, Annex I countries must meet their targets

primarily through national measures.

– EU at least 80% national measures – Japan no limit

Energy saving Etc. CH4 Methane capture Carbon sequestration

• 3 market based mechanisms
• To assist in reaching the objectives of KP, three market

based mechanisms created, Parties can use:

• Emission Trading (ET) => trading of allowances (AAUs) between

developed countries

• Joint Implementation (JI) => project based, developed c. invests in

project in another developed c. and receives credits (ERUs)

• Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) => project based, CDM credits

generated from emission reduction projects or from afforestation/ reforestation projects in developing country. Acquisition by developed c. (Certified Emission Reduction, CERs)

• Taking advantage of difference in marginal abatement costs across

different emission sources

• “Emissions don’t need a visa to travel”

• Why Clean Development Mechanism?
• Most cost effective measures for the abatement of GHG

emissions: cheapest place to do so

• E.g. With $ 1.000 you can reduce

10 ton CO2 in UK

• But with $ 1.000 you can reduce

100 ton CO2 in Nepal

CO2 CO2

• Flexible mechanisms KP

• 95

AAU 2008 - 2012 140 ET JI CDM 100 t C2 1990

Emission Reduction Accounting

• CDM Flows

Developed country (Annex I) Developing country (Non-Annex I) Flow $$ and clean technologies Flow of emission reductions Projects reducing GHG emissions CH4 Accounting of ER => approved methodologies To validate projects => accredited audit companies (DOEs) To verify emission reductions => accredited DOEs To approve projects => check by experts (RIT) To approve issuance => check by experts (RIT) Designated National Authority

• Adaptation
• Financial support for adaptation:

– Bilaterals – Adaptation fund (AF) – Special Climate Change Fund (GEF) – Least Developed Countries Fund (GEF)

• Various projects underway to reduce vulnerabilities and

adapt to climate change

• Contents

Green jobs in the context of climate change:

• Introduction in Climate Change
• Introduction to UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol and CDM
• Introduction to the ongoing climate change

negotiations

• UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon:
• We have read the science. Global warming is real and we are

a prime cause. We have heard the warnings. Unless we act now, we face serious consequences.

• Largely lost in the debate is the good news. We can do

something – more easily and at far less cost than most of us imagine (if wait too long, costs 20% of GDP)

• Climate change will have a more immediate effect on many of

the poorest people in the world, including those least able to recover from climate stresses like droughts, floods and changing conditions for crops and livestock

• Climate change will exacerbate existing economic, political

and humanitarian stresses

• Reductions
• To stabilize GHG concentrations in atmosphere and prevent

catastrophic climate change (UNDP HD report 2007/2008):

• 50% reductions in GHG emissions by 2050 based on 1990

levels

• Developed countries, 80% reductions in 2050
• Developing countries, 20% reduction in 2050
• Those most at risk from climate change live in countries that

have contributed the least to the atmospheric build-up of CO2 and other GHG. But these most affected are also the least able to cope.

• Both climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts are

essential to help solve this problem.

• The Road to Copenhagen/Cancun/………

Convention “track” Kyoto Protocol “track”

COP CMP

• Status of the negotiations?

Progress in 2010

• Parties continue on draft texts from 2009
• Elements of the Copenhagen Accord have been incorporated, but text

remains heavily bracketed

• Overarching political disagreement on mitigation pledges continues
• Recognition that Cancun will not produce a comprehensive, complete deal
• Negotiations increasingly seen as an iterative process, with an evolving

institutional framework Focus for Cancun

• Deliver a package of COP decisions (not legally-binding) to capture

progress and begin process of setting up new mechanisms

• Finance, technology, REDD+ and adaptation all focus areas for progress.
• Fast Start Finance, GF, and Interim REDD+ Partnership all feed in

• From Tianjin to Cancun

General consensus on

• New Fund
• Technology Mechanism
• Adaptation Framework
• REDD+ Interim Partnership

Disagreement on

• Developing countries mitigation

actions, and the measuring, reporting and verification (MRV)

• f them
• Developed country targets and

Kyoto Protocol second commitment period Disagreement on MRV threatens US, Japan, Russia, Australia blocking of the package What’s in the package of decisions?

• Finance

• Finance (existing)

• Finance (new)?

• Keystone Issues for Finance

Major Points to Note:

• Funding will be less and less project-based
• Transition to national planning and strategies as guiding documents for

programmatic fund disbursement (e.g. NAMAs)

• Direct Access a major feature
• Multilateral system increasingly asked to provide facilities, mechanisms,

and technical assistance, rather than project implementation

• Donors agree that the majority future funding will flow via the new fund,

but that it will not be a silver bullet

• National coordination therefore becomes essential for governments to

access, coordinate, sequence and combine climate finance