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Identifying how the strategies used to evaluate flood damage can affect the results of the evaluation Julian ELEUTERIO (1)(2) Anne ROZAN ( 1 ) , Robert MOSE (2) (1) UMR Cemagref/ENGEES Management of Public Utilities, France (2) UMR CNRS/UdS/ ENGEES

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SLIDE 1

Identifying how the strategies used to evaluate flood damage can affect the results of the evaluation

Julian ELEUTERIO(1)(2) Anne ROZAN(1), Robert MOSE(2)

(1) UMR Cemagref/ENGEES Management of Public Utilities, France (2) UMR CNRS/UdS/ ENGEES Mechanical Institute of Fluids and Solids – UTR Urban Hydraulics, Strasbourg, France

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SLIDE 2

Summary

  • Context
  • Objetives
  • Methodolody
  • Results and Perspectives

Context 2 Identifying how the strategies used to evaluate flood damages can affect the results of the evaluation

  • J. ELEUTERIO et al. E-mail: JULIAN.ELEUTERIO@ENGEES.UNISTRA.FR

Objectives Methodology Results & Perspectives

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SLIDE 3

Context

Context 3 Identifying how the strategies used to evaluate flood damages can affect the results of the evaluation

  • J. ELEUTERIO et al. E-mail: JULIAN.ELEUTERIO@ENGEES.UNISTRA.FR

Objectives Methodology Results & Perspectives

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SLIDE 4

Context 4 Identifying how the strategies used to evaluate flood damages can affect the results of the evaluation

  • J. ELEUTERIO et al. E-mail: JULIAN.ELEUTERIO@ENGEES.UNISTRA.FR

Objectives Methodology Results & Perspectives

  • Generalities on flood risk

– Flood risk management (reduction of overall losses) – Decision-making process: cost/benefit and multi-criteria analysis...

  • Flood damages in France

– 1/3 of municipalities concerned. – flood losses represent 80 % of damages associated to natural hazards (250 M€ per year in average) – Absence of national standard methods to evaluate damages of future floods (forecasting)

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SLIDE 5

Context 5 Identifying how the strategies used to evaluate flood damages can affect the results of the evaluation

  • J. ELEUTERIO et al. E-mail: JULIAN.ELEUTERIO@ENGEES.UNISTRA.FR

Objectives Methodology Results & Perspectives

  • Evaluation of future flood damages in practice

– Great majority of studies consider only part of total damages caused by floods (ex. buildings and contents) – Methods, models are generally determined in function of budget restriction and data availability. – Uncertainty rarely discussed and studied

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SLIDE 6

Objectives

Context 6 Identifying how the strategies used to evaluate flood damages can affect the results of the evaluation

  • J. ELEUTERIO et al. E-mail: JULIAN.ELEUTERIO@ENGEES.UNISTRA.FR

Objectives Methodology Results & Perspectives

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SLIDE 7

Context 7 Identifying how the strategies used to evaluate flood damages can affect the results of the evaluation

  • J. ELEUTERIO et al. E-mail: JULIAN.ELEUTERIO@ENGEES.UNISTRA.FR

Objectives Methodology Results & Perspectives

  • Scientific:

– Develop a research framework to analyze the impact of different strategies used to evaluate flood damages on the feasibility of the evaluation and on the accuracy of its results

  • Practical:

– Support the application of future flood damage assessment methods

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SLIDE 8

Methodology

Context 8 Identifying how the strategies used to evaluate flood damages can affect the results of the evaluation

  • J. ELEUTERIO et al. E-mail: JULIAN.ELEUTERIO@ENGEES.UNISTRA.FR

Objectives Methodology Results & Perspectives

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SLIDE 9
  • Evaluating future floods damage potential

Context 9 Identifying how the strategies used to evaluate flood damages can affect the results of the evaluation

  • J. ELEUTERIO et al. E-mail: JULIAN.ELEUTERIO@ENGEES.UNISTRA.FR

Objectives Methodology Results & Perspectives

Pre-study Future Flood damage EVALUATION PROCESS

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SLIDE 10
  • Evaluating future floods damage potential

Context 10 Identifying how the strategies used to evaluate flood damages can affect the results of the evaluation

  • J. ELEUTERIO et al. E-mail: JULIAN.ELEUTERIO@ENGEES.UNISTRA.FR

Objectives Methodology Results & Perspectives

Pre-study Future Flood damage EVALUATION PROCESS

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SLIDE 11
  • Pre-study

Context 11 Identifying how the strategies used to evaluate flood damages can affect the results of the evaluation

  • J. ELEUTERIO et al. E-mail: JULIAN.ELEUTERIO@ENGEES.UNISTRA.FR

Objectives Methodology Results & Perspectives

Land-use and vulnerability data Past damages data and damage functions Flooding phenomenon data

Definition

  • f
  • bjective

2 3 4 1

Flood damage Urban system Flood system

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SLIDE 12
  • Pre-study

Context 12 Identifying how the strategies used to evaluate flood damages can affect the results of the evaluation

  • J. ELEUTERIO et al. E-mail: JULIAN.ELEUTERIO@ENGEES.UNISTRA.FR

Objectives Methodology Results & Perspectives

Definition

  • f
  • bjectives

Estimate the area for direct damage evaluation Determine types of damage and the area for indirect damage evaluation Determine damage-functions for each asset type

2 3 4 5 6 7 1

Flood damages Urban system Flood system

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SLIDE 13
  • Pre-study

Context 13 Identifying how the strategies used to evaluate flood damages can affect the results of the evaluation

  • J. ELEUTERIO et al. E-mail: JULIAN.ELEUTERIO@ENGEES.UNISTRA.FR

Objectives Methodology Results & Perspectives

Determine strategies to model flood hazard Determine strategies to assess assets vulnerability to floods

Definition

  • f
  • bjectives

Determine data storage and processing software

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1

Flood damage Urban system Flood system

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SLIDE 14
  • Pre-study (3C method)

Context 14 Identifying how the strategies used to evaluate flood damages can affect the results of the evaluation

  • J. ELEUTERIO et al. E-mail: JULIAN.ELEUTERIO@ENGEES.UNISTRA.FR

Objectives Methodology Perspectives

Land-use and vulnerability data Past damages data and damage functions Flooding phenomenon data Determine strategies to model flood hazard Determine strategies to assess assets vulnerability to floods

Definition

  • f
  • bjectives

Estimate the area for direct damage evaluation Determine types of damage and the area for indirect damage evaluation Determine damage-functions for each asset type Determine data storage and processing software

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1

Flood damage Urban system Flood system

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SLIDE 15
  • Evaluating future floods damage potential

Context 15 Identifying how the strategies used to evaluate flood damages can affect the results of the evaluation

  • J. ELEUTERIO et al. E-mail: JULIAN.ELEUTERIO@ENGEES.UNISTRA.FR

Objectives Methodology Perspectives

Pre-study Future Flood damage EVALUATION PROCESS

  • Based on the evaluation objectives & data availability:
  • Typology of damage
  • Scale of evaluation
  • Required data assessment methods
  • Models and methods to be used

Uncertainties

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SLIDE 16
  • Evaluating future floods damage potential

Context 16 Identifying how the strategies used to evaluate flood damages can affect the results of the evaluation

  • J. ELEUTERIO et al. E-mail: JULIAN.ELEUTERIO@ENGEES.UNISTRA.FR

Objectives Methodology Results & Perspectives

Pre-study Future Flood damage EVALUATION PROCESS

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SLIDE 17
  • Evaluation process

Context 17 Identifying how the strategies used to evaluate flood damages can affect the results of the evaluation

  • J. ELEUTERIO et al. E-mail: JULIAN.ELEUTERIO@ENGEES.UNISTRA.FR

Objectives Methodology Results & Perspectives

  • 1st STEP
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SLIDE 18
  • Evaluation process

Context 18 Identifying how the strategies used to evaluate flood damages can affect the results of the evaluation

  • J. ELEUTERIO et al. E-mail: JULIAN.ELEUTERIO@ENGEES.UNISTRA.FR

Objectives Methodology Results & Perspectives

  • 2nd STEP
  • 1st STEP
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SLIDE 19
  • Evaluation process

Context 19 Identifying how the strategies used to evaluate flood damages can affect the results of the evaluation

  • J. ELEUTERIO et al. E-mail: JULIAN.ELEUTERIO@ENGEES.UNISTRA.FR

Objectives Methodology Results & Perspectives

  • 2nd STEP

3rd STEP

  • 1st STEP
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SLIDE 20
  • Evaluation process

Context 20 Identifying how the strategies used to evaluate flood damages can affect the results of the evaluation

  • J. ELEUTERIO et al. E-mail: JULIAN.ELEUTERIO@ENGEES.UNISTRA.FR

Objectives Methodology Results & Perspectives

  • 2nd STEP

3rd STEP

  • 1st STEP

PRE-STUDY Accuracy of DATA

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SLIDE 21
  • Evaluation methodology

Context 21 Identifying how the strategies used to evaluate flood damages can affect the results of the evaluation

  • J. ELEUTERIO et al. E-mail: JULIAN.ELEUTERIO@ENGEES.UNISTRA.FR

Objectives Methodology Results & Perspectives

Flood system HAZARD Urban system VULNERABILITY GIS-based analysis Flood damage Hydrologic Hydraulic Geospatial Buildings and contents vulnerability Networks vulnerability

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SLIDE 22
  • Correlating feasibility with uncertainty potential

Context 22 Identifying how the strategies used to evaluate flood damages can affect the results of the evaluation

  • J. ELEUTERIO et al. E-mail: JULIAN.ELEUTERIO@ENGEES.UNISTRA.FR

Objectives Methodology Results & Perspectives

Flood system HAZARD Urban system VULNERABILITY GIS-based analysis Flood damage Hydrologic Hydraulic Geospatial Buildings and contents vulnerability Networks vulnerability

Change strategies

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SLIDE 23
  • Correlating feasibility with uncertainty potential

Context 23 Identifying how the strategies used to evaluate flood damages can affect the results of the evaluation

  • J. ELEUTERIO et al. E-mail: JULIAN.ELEUTERIO@ENGEES.UNISTRA.FR

Objectives Methodology Results & Perspectives

Flood system HAZARD Urban system VULNERABILITY GIS-based analysis Flood damage Hydrologic Hydraulic Geospatial Buildings and contents vulnerability Networks vulnerability Change strategies

Measure variability Measure variability

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SLIDE 24

Results and Perspectives

Context 24 Identifying how the strategies used to evaluate flood damages can affect the results of the evaluation

  • J. ELEUTERIO et al. E-mail: JULIAN.ELEUTERIO@ENGEES.UNISTRA.FR

Objectives Methodology Results & Perspectives

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SLIDE 25

Methodological & Operational

Context 25 Identifying how the strategies used to evaluate flood damages can affect the results of the evaluation

  • J. ELEUTERIO et al. E-mail: JULIAN.ELEUTERIO@ENGEES.UNISTRA.FR

Objectives Methodology Results & Perspectives

Pre-study Future Flood damage EVALUATION PROCESS

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SLIDE 26
  • F.R.A. GIS extension v.1

Context 26 Identifying how the strategies used to evaluate flood damages can affect the results of the evaluation

  • J. ELEUTERIO et al. E-mail: JULIAN.ELEUTERIO@ENGEES.UNISTRA.FR

Objectives Methodology Results & Perspectives

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SLIDE 27

Results variability

  • Based on case studies
  • Construction of

hydrodynamic scenarios

  • Assessment of buildings

and networks vulnerability

Alsace

Urban Community of Strasbourg Fislis Context 27 Identifying how the strategies used to evaluate flood damages can affect the results of the evaluation

  • J. ELEUTERIO et al. E-mail: JULIAN.ELEUTERIO@ENGEES.UNISTRA.FR

Objectives Methodology Results & Perspectives

FRANCE

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SLIDE 28

Identifying how the strategies used to evaluate flood damages can affect the results of the evaluation JULIAN.ELEUTERIO@ENGEES.UNISTRA.FR

Julian ELEUTERIO(1)(2) Anne ROZAN(1), Robert MOSE(2)

(1) UMR Cemagref/ENGEES Management of Public Utilities, France (2) UMR CNRS/UdS/ ENGEES Mechanical Institute of Fluids and Solids – UTR Urban Hydraulics, Strasbourg, France

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SLIDE 29

ANNEXES

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SLIDE 30

EAERE 2009 presentation

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SLIDE 31

Damages

  • For floods with different return periods:
  • Dresidential = damages to residential buildings
  • Dactivities =

damages to commercial, industrial and

  • ther buildings

( ) ( )

5 , 1 × Σ + Σ =

activities l residentia

D D D

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SLIDE 32

Results: Potential damages (€)

10 years 30 years 100 years

32

GREAT UNCERTAINTY

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SLIDE 33

Damages

  • Annual Average Costs (AAC)
  • D(q) = total damage caused by a flood (q) with

frequency (F)

  • F(q) = frequency of the flood (q)

q d q F q D AAC ∫

∞

× = ) ( ) (

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SLIDE 34

Results: Average Annual Cost (€/year)

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Dependent on expert opinion

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SLIDE 35

Average Annual Costs

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SLIDE 36

Damage-functions