@hpatrinos In Introduction Glo lobal Since 1980s returns to - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
hpatrinos in introduction glo lobal
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

@hpatrinos In Introduction Glo lobal Since 1980s returns to - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jul 05, 2023 159 likes •656 views

Harry arry Anth thony Patri trinos 4 Sep eptember r 2019 2019 @hpatrinos In Introduction Glo lobal Since 1980s returns to schooling increased Returns to education were highest for primary Recent evidence suggests

slide-1
SLIDE 1

Harry arry Anth thony Patri trinos 4 Sep eptember r 2019 2019

@hpatrinos

slide-2
SLIDE 2

In Introduction – Glo lobal

  • Since 1980s returns to schooling

increased

  • Returns to education were highest for

primary

  • Recent evidence suggests pattern

changed

  • Returns to tertiary education increased

most

slide-3
SLIDE 3

1.5 2.5 8 10

1900 1950 2000 2050

The Global Education Revolution

Years of schooling

slide-4
SLIDE 4

An Education System Empowering All ll to Reach Their Full Potential

ECA Education Vision

slide-5
SLIDE 5

Tertiary ry Education

slide-6
SLIDE 6

Tertiary ry Education

“A highly-skilled workforce, with a solid post-secondary education, is a prerequisite for innovation and growth: well- educated people are more employable, earn higher wages, and cope with economic shocks better”

slide-7
SLIDE 7

Expenditure on Tertiary ry Education

(% of government expenditure on education)

12 18 21 21 21 22

SA EAP LAC SSA World ECA

slide-8
SLIDE 8

Tertiary Education In Increasing

slide-9
SLIDE 9

Global Enrollment in Tertiary ry Education is In Increasing

(millions of students)

50 100 150 200 250

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

slide-10
SLIDE 10

Tertiary ry Enrollment Rates by Country ry In Income Group

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

World High income countries Upper middle income countries Lower middle income countries Low income countries

Source: UIS database

slide-11
SLIDE 11

Tertiary ry Education Enrollment Rate by Region

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

ECA LAC MENA EAP SA SSA

slide-12
SLIDE 12

ECA, 53% LAC, 124% MENA, 101% EAP, 199% SA, 184% SSA, 107%

2000 2017

Tertiary ry Enrollment Growth by Region

2000 to 2017

slide-13
SLIDE 13

20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Uzbekistan Luxembourg Azerbaijan Tajikistan Moldova North Macedonia Kyrgyz Republic Kazakhstan Slovak Republic Romania Hungary Malta Armenia Georgia Montenegro Switzerland United Kingdom Cyprus Albania Serbia Portugal Italy Sweden Czech Republic France Poland Croatia Germany Lithuania Bulgaria Estonia Iceland Belgium Ireland Slovenia Netherlands Norway Latvia Denmark Russian Federation Austria Finland Belarus Spain Turkey Greece

Tertiary ry Enrollment Rates by ECA Country ry

2016 (or latest available)

slide-14
SLIDE 14

Returns

slide-15
SLIDE 15

Are There Returns to Schooling?

Private:

  • Cost-benefit analysis
  • Value of lifetime earnings to net present

value of costs

  • Costs: student’s foregone earnings while

studying & fees

  • Benefits: extra earnings compared with

someone with less education

  • -

+++++ +-

$

More educated

Age

Less educated

slide-16
SLIDE 16

Private Rates of Return to Education

Risi ising Retu turns 1970-2013

10 6 17 Primary Secondary Tertiary

Retu turns to Sc Schooli ling by y Le Level l (L (Latest)

slide-17
SLIDE 17

Returns Higher for Women – Global

10 10 7 15 12 11 8 17 Overall Primary Secondary University Men Women

slide-18
SLIDE 18

0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1980 1990 2000 2014

Men

Primary Secondary Higher 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1980 1990 2000 2014

Women

Primary Secondary Higher

Global Changes in Returns to Education since 1980

slide-19
SLIDE 19

2 4 6 8 10 10 12 12 14 14 16 16 18 18 20 20

Returns to Schooling in ECA

slide-20
SLIDE 20

Returns to Schooling in ECA

2 4 6 8 10

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

slide-21
SLIDE 21

Returns to Schooling & Growth in ECA

  • 6
  • 2

2 6 10

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Returns Growth

slide-22
SLIDE 22

Enter Technology

slide-23
SLIDE 23

Type of f Skills Demanded Changing

40 45 50 55 60 65 70 1960 1970 1980 1990 2002

Nonroutine Manual Routine Manual Routine cognitive Nonroutine analytic Non routine interactive

slide-24
SLIDE 24

Automation is Coming

slide-25
SLIDE 25

Robots are Coming

slide-26
SLIDE 26

Estimates of f Jo Jobs At Ris isk fr from Automation Vary ry

slide-27
SLIDE 27

In Industrial Jo Jobs are Falling in West & Rising in East

slide-28
SLIDE 28

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Higher education (%) Returns to university

The Race Between Education & Technology in ECA

slide-29
SLIDE 29

Im Implications

  • Efficiency
  • Inequality

➢Education reform ➢Financing reform

slide-30
SLIDE 30

Private and Social Rates of f Return to Tertiary ry

Country Private Social Poland 26.6 13.9 Czech Republic 19.9 15.3 Turkey 19.3 9.2 Ireland 17.0 15.4 Spain 9.8 6.5 France 9.5 6.9 Italy 9.5 8.6 Finland 8.4 6.1 Denmark 7.9 3.9 Netherlands 7.5 6.8 Average 12.8 9.5

slide-31
SLIDE 31

Private Share of f Tertiary ry Education Financing

100% 0%

United States Australia, Japan United Kingdom, Spain Most of continental Europe

.

slide-32
SLIDE 32

Country Index Germany 2.1 Spain 1.5 France 2.0 Ireland 1.1 Italy 1.8 Netherlands 1.6 Portugal 5.4 Finland 1.8

Over-representation of f University Students whose Father is a University Graduate

slide-33
SLIDE 33

How to Finance University

Use Future Earnings

  • Income Contingent Loans
  • Human Capital Contracts

Innovative Student Finance

slide-34
SLIDE 34

Graduate payments Graduate income

Human Capital Contracts: How They Differ

slide-35
SLIDE 35

Graduate payments Graduate income

Human Capital Contracts: How They Differ

slide-36
SLIDE 36

Better In Information

slide-37
SLIDE 37

Messages

  • Finance
  • Quality
  • Measure/Inform
slide-38
SLIDE 38

Europe and Central Asia

slide-39
SLIDE 39

Human Capital In Index

Most ECA countries perform above average for income level

LUX IRL NOR CHE NLD SWE DNK ISL AUT DEU BEL FIN GBR FRA ITA ESP CZE CYP SVN SVK LTU EST PRT POL HUN TUR LVA RUS GRC KAZ ROU HRV BGR MNE AZE SRB MKD ALB BIH XKX GEO ARM UKR MDA KGZ TJK

0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Productivity Relative to Benchmark ln [GDP Per Capita in 2017 or latest PPP( constant 2011 international USD), World Bank]

slide-40
SLIDE 40

Top HLO (H (Harmonized Learning Outcomes)

537 538 538 542 545 548 562 563 563 581

Kazakhstan Russian Federation Ireland Estonia Macao SAR, China Finland Hong Kong SAR, China Korea, Rep. Japan Singapore

slide-41
SLIDE 41

Number of f top 500 universities among international university rankings

Country QS Shanghai US News Times

United States 94 137 133 123 China 22 57 130 14 United Kingdom 51 39 42 58 Germany 30 36 36 44 Japan 17 14 67 13 Korea 15 11 45 10 Italy 12 15 27 25 France 17 19 19 21 Netherlands 13 11 13 13 Spain 13 10 14 8

slide-42
SLIDE 42

Top 10 PIA IAAC (a (among those of f university age)

633 628 626 622 620 615 615 606 605 603

Finland Netherlands Austria Sweden Belgium Germany Japan Norway Estonia Denmark

slide-43
SLIDE 43

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 LAC North America EAP MENA ECA Equivalent USD converted using PPPs for GDP

Tuition Fees

(average annual BA level fees charged by public institutions by region

slide-44
SLIDE 44

ECA: Lending and Strategy

slide-45
SLIDE 45

Tertiary ry Education Portfolio In Increasing

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Share of Tertiary Education Lending in Total ECA Education Portfolio (5 years moving average)

slide-46
SLIDE 46

World Bank Support for Tertia iary ry Education in in ECA

  • Support for tertiary education

reforms & innovation since 1972

  • Collaboration with governments,

tertiary institutions, partners, others

  • Portfolio between 2000-2018:
  • 36 projects (USD 514 million)
  • Numerous analytical and advisory tasks
  • 4 projects in pipeline for 2019-2020

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

EMIS Knowledge economy Competitiveness Quality Assurance Research Market relevance Teaching/Learning Governance/Financial Man Access/equity

Number of tertiary investment projects by main objective area

slide-47
SLIDE 47

Selected Examples

Lending:

  • Uzbekistan MHEP: $42 million. Focus on HE management; learning

environment; relevance of HE; HEMIS

  • Montenegro HERIC: $16 million. Reform, innovation, finance, quality

assurance, R&D

  • Belarus HEMP (under preparation): $100 million. Focus on Bologna

implementation (joined 2015) – especially QA, curriculum reform; improved environment for teaching, learning, research Analytical and advisory work:

  • Latvia HE RAS (different phases 2013-18). Focus on HE financing and

governance (system and institutional level), academic careers.

  • Romania HE RAS (different phases): Included work on quality assurance,

transition from secondary to tertiary, early warning prevention dropouts Technical assistance:

  • Regional HE dialogue for Poland and the Baltics (FY16-18): Incl. regional

roundtables on HE topics of join interest (financing, internationalization, etc.); knowledge sharing; publication on Performance Contracts

slide-48
SLIDE 48

Going Forward

Towards an ECA Tertiary Education Approach Quality + Modernization + Funding + Autonomy/Accountability Flagship with strategic directions at the regional level

slide-49
SLIDE 49

@hpatrinos

Harry ry Anthony Patrinos

World Bank