How Will Climate Change Affect Brewing? Steve Bertman Professor of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

How Will Climate Change Affect Brewing?

Steve Bertman

Professor of the Environment and Sustainability Western Michigan University, Kalamazoo

Brewing is inherently resource intensive.

Many breweries know that conserving resources and minimizing consumption can make good business sense.

Climate change will affect ALL aspects of brewing resource management.

• Supply chain
• Brewhouse
• Tap room/restaurant
• Distribution

Climate change is the symptom, trapped heat is the cause.

https://climate.nasa.gov

Temperature Change (relative to 1951-1980 average) Global temperature increased ~1.8°F since 1900

The last time Earth’s temperature was lower than the 20th century average was in 1976.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201913

Global Land and Ocean January-December Temperature Anomalies

1880 2019 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

• 0.60°C

1.00°C

• 0.40°C
• 0.20°C

0.00°C 0.20°C 0.40°C 0.60°C 0.80°C

• 1.08°F

1.80°F

• 0.72°F
• 0.36°F

0.00°F 0.36°F 0.72°F 1.08°F 1.44°F

Weather is daily description

• f environmental

conditions. Climate is a 30-year average of weather data for a specific region. Temperature and precipitation are the most important components of climate.

What is climate?

Humid subtropical Humid continental Temperate continental

Climate movement can be quantified.

1925 1940 1980 2010

http://www.cbs.umn.edu/climatetracker/ Courtesy of Kevin Smith, U. Minnesota

• Eastward in dust bowl years
• Northward in recent years;

5 miles per year since 1980

• Likely movement will be faster

in the future

Climate in brewing-important areas is predicted to shift.

Present Future

Beck, et al,. Sci Data 2018, 5 (1), 215–12.

Humid subtropical climate shifts northward into Great Lakes Continental Mediterranean climate in PCNW shifts to warm Mediterranean

Current warming is faster than any time in the last 800,000 years. Virtually all modern global warming is due to humans increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.

• Fossil fuel combustion ~80%
• Deforestation ~20%

CO2 is the most important greenhouse gas, responsible for 64% of global warming.

I graduate HS My daughter graduates HS

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/full.html

• 15% increase in
• ne generation

Global Carbon Project - https://www.globalcarbonproject.org

Half of all human-caused CO2 has been emitted in the last 20 years!

35x10

3

30 25 20 15 10 5

CO2 Emissions (millions of metric tons)

2000 1950 1900 1850 1800 1750 1700

Year

7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000

World Population (millions of people)

Population Pre-21

st Century CO2

21

st Century CO2

Crops pull CO2 out of the atmosphere through photosynthesis and emit other heat-trapping gases, such as nitrous oxide (N2O).

Poore & Nemecek, Science, 360, 987, (2018)

CO2 N2O

Not all gases trap the same amount of heat.

GHG 20 year GWP Factor Typical sources CO2 1 Energy combustion, chemical/biochemical reactions CH4 86 Animal agriculture, decomposition, fracking N2O 268 Fertilizers, car emissions, manufacturing PFC 7,390 – 12,200 Aluminum smelting; semiconductors HFC 124 – 14,800 Refrigerants, industrial gases

IPCC AR5, WG1 Chap. 8

Global Warming Potential (GWP)

1 kg CO2 + 1 kg N2O

Think of CO2 as “global warming currency” ($$)

= 1 eq + 268 eq = 269 kg CO2 equivalents (CO2e)

Although N2O is present in lower levels than CO2, it still contributes to warming.

IPCC 5th Assessment Report

Emissions (GtCO2e/yr)

Agriculture is the major contributor of N2O.

The Northwest is most important for brewing.

Pacific NW grows > 95% of hops in the US. 75% of American barley grown in four states Barley growth is shifting north

• Changes in temperature

more extreme heat warmer, drier summers

• Changes in precipitation

reduced snowpack more drought more floods

• Shifts in growing season
• Elevated CO2
• Increased pests and pathogens

Some impacts will influence brewing by affecting yields and quality of supply chain (hops & barley).

Temperature has risen in almost all parts

• f the US since the middle of the 20th century.

https://science2017.globalchange.gov/

Temperature difference [AVE(1986–2016) - AVE(1901–1960)]

Frequency and duration of high temperatures and drought are on the rise.

https://science2017.globalchange.gov/ Fig. 6.5

Extreme temperatures in the contiguous US projected to increase even more than averages

Recent advances in computing power have enabled more regional predictions.

Salathé et al., Climatic Change (2010) 102:51–75

• Washington predicted to have

increased heat wave frequency

• Greater in the Yakima valley

than other parts of the state

Growing season length has already increased.

https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/10/ (Fig 10.3)

Little change in precipitation in PCNW during Fall, Winter, Spring, but significantly less in Summer.

https://science2017.globalchange.gov/; https://www.drought.gov/

• More rain, less snow
• Smaller snowpack
• Drier summers - drought
• Estimated crop losses of

10’s of billions $$

More precipitation is coming in extreme events.

https://www.globalchange.gov/browse/indicators/heavy-precipitation

• Changes differ by

region

• Flooding
• Erosion
• Crop selection

This is predicted to become more common.

4th National Climate Assessment - https://nca2018.globalchange.gov; https://science2017.globalchange.gov/

Protein content in barley is predicted to decrease 13-18% under elevated CO2.

Taub et al., Global Change Biology (2008) 14, 565–575

Percent change in protein concentration under elevated [CO2] −20 −15 −10 −5 5 Potato Soybean Wheat Rice Barley (20) (14) (120) (56) (18)

Climate modeling predicts decreases in barley yield by the end of the century.

Xie et al., Nature Plants, 4, 964-973 (2018)

d

–40% –20% +10% Global yield change –10% –30% –3% –90% –50% –10% +90% +50% +10% RCP2.6 150° E 120° E 90° E 60° E 30° E 0° 30° W 60° W 90° W 120° W 150° W 180° 80° N 60° N 40° N 20° N 0° 20° S 40° S Mean yield change

We are not used to dealing with change

• ccurring as fast as is happening.

By accepting the challenges and thinking ahead, the brewing industry can adjust.

Barley is susceptible to the combination of heat and drought

Physiologia Plantarum 165: 131–133 & 277-289. (2019)

Seed yield decreased by 95% when subjected to heat and drought during the heading stage Sugar and protein content are highly variable Not all strains responded identically

Renee Eriksen, unpublished results

Hops cone yield decreases significantly under drought conditions.

Renee Eriksen, USDA, unpublished results

Alpha and beta acid levels in hops drop significantly after drought.

Some varieties are more susceptible than others

% reduction of acid levels

Hops varieties show different levels of heat tolerance.

Eriksen et al., HortScience 55, 403–409 (2020)

Southern Brewer Cascade Willamette

What should be done?

• Be prepared to be experimental, to be innovative, to be able to work with

different feedstocks, perhaps new tastes.

• Corporate breweries are working with growers to adjust farming methods and

develop strains that can better tolerate future conditions. AB Inbev: “Climate change is the most pressing issue confronting our planet with far-reaching consequences on our supply chain, operations and communities.” - 2018 annual report

• Collectively, and through the efforts of the BA, smaller brewers are also working

to chart a course for the future to ensure supply, quality, and variety.

Takeaway lessons and recommendations

• Climate will become warmer and less predictable.
• Hard to say exactly how historical brewing practices will be

challenged, but they will be.

• Variability of traits appears to offer opportunities for selective

breeding of varieties with properties that can withstand the threats of climate change.

• Work already started! Need to continue and ramp up . . . soon!
• Collaboration will be key for the craft industry.
• Make friends with Canadians!

Extensive observations and predictions are available.

IPCC unprecedented international scientific collaboration Scope: global US National Climate Assessment NOAA lead agency Scope: national

Questions?

Acknowledgements Renee Eriksen Kevin Smith Dave Karowe Chris Swersey Walker Modic