How to use soft OA methods to explore future IED threat and their - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶

Nov 27, 2022 50 likes •211 views

How to use soft OA methods to explore future IED threat and their countermeasures 27 ISMOR 2010 Introduction Cause Current threat around IEDs is continuously changing Little known about possible future threat Goal List

SLIDE 1

27 ISMOR 2010

How to use ‘soft’ OA methods to explore future IED threat and their countermeasures

SLIDE 2

27 ISMOR 2010 2

Introduction

Cause

Current threat around IED’s is continuously changing
Little known about possible future threat

Goal

List the expected IED threat development
Explore possible countermeasures

These countermeasures will support the Dutch military to do their jobs, as safe as possible, despite the changing threat.

SLIDE 3

27 ISMOR 2010 3

Approach

Interactive sessions

Workshops intern TNO (researchers)
Workshop with military
Working sessions intern TNO
Interactive game (DTAG)

Techniques used

Morphological analysis
Brainstorming
Creative methods, like tinker
Scenario analysis
DTAG

SLIDE 4

27 ISMOR 2010 4

Find possible new IEDs threats

Interactive workshop

Create morphological box

SLIDE 5

27 ISMOR 2010 5

Morphological Analysis

Steps

Specify your challenge
Select the corresponding parameters
List variations
Research all the possible solutions to the problem
Try different combinations (randomly)

Shocks Wheel Tires Colour

Parameters Car

Associati es Variations Example:

SLIDE 6

27 ISMOR 2010 6

Possible new IEDs threats

Interactive workshop

Create morphological box
Put morphological box away and think

creative

“Out of the box”
Sketch/tinker an IED
Try different combinations from the

morphological box Afterwards

Combine the ideas into scenarios
Use them as input for the next workshop

SLIDE 7

27 ISMOR 2010 7

Explore possible countermeasures

Play cards Morphological box Scenarios

SLIDE 8

27 ISMOR 2010 8

IoS cards

Goal of the workshops To create ‘Ideas of System’ Cards as an input for the DTAG

Each card represents an example of possible

IED threat or a specific countermeasure

An IoS card contains for example:
Description and assumptions
Critical performances of the IoS
Technologies
Affordability
Acceptability
Training requirements
Studies and references

SLIDE 9

27 ISMOR 2010 9

Disruptive Technology Assessment Game

Definition

Tabletop ‘war game’ to assess the potential added value of new

technologies and systems Why

Create a bridge between the military and the

researchers

Both parties bring in their expertise
Put on a trial (threat and countermeasures) on
usefulness and feasibility
Create a basis for the findings

It is likely that the setting of a DTAG will lead to even more ideas about future IED threat and countermeasures.

SLIDE 10

27 ISMOR 2010 10

White team

1-2 senior military experts, 1-2 lead scientists, lead analyst

Red Team

2/5 military operational experts, 1-2 scientists, analyst

Moderator(s)

Game setting DTAG

Blue Team

2/5 military operational experts, 1-2 scientists, analyst

SLIDE 11

27 ISMOR 2010 11

Game process (1)

SLIDE 12

27 ISMOR 2010 12

Game process DTAG (2)

Moderator(s)

Scenario is used as high

level operational context 1.1.Present military order 1.2. COA Planning 1.3 Military lead confrontation analysis 2.1 Present (same) military

rder

2.1 IoS-cards 2.2. COA Planning (IoS cards can be used) 2.3 Technology lead confrontation analysis

After all vignettes are played an
verall technology assessment is

made

Within these scenario’s a number of
perational/tactical vignettes is played
Per vignette two rounds are played:
1. Baseline Round with conventional

setting to define reference level

2. Round with Ideas of System (IoS-

Cards) to assess ’s 1.2. COA Planning 2.2. COA Planning (IoS cards can be used)

White team Red Team Blue Team

SLIDE 13

27 ISMOR 2010 13

Analysis tool for DTAG: TARTAN

SLIDE 14

27 ISMOR 2010 14

Wrap up

Morphological analysis, brainstorming and creative methods

helped to explore new ideas for possible future IED threat and countermeasures.

Starting with separate workshops for researchers and military

helps to let them think in their own way.

The DTAG will help to:
create a bridge between researchers and military;
put on a trial on usefulness and feasibility of the findings.

SLIDE 15

27 ISMOR 2010 15

The insights in the possible future IED threat and their countermeasures support the Dutch military to do their jobs, as safe as possible, despite the changing threat.

SLIDE 16

27 ISMOR 2010 16

TNO Defence, Security and Safety

Drs. Sanne Heesmans

Oude Waalsdorperweg 63 PO Box 96864 2509 JG The Hague The Netherlands T +31 70 374 05 25 F +31 70 374 06 42 E Sanne.Heesmans@tno.nl