How is the hinterland unlocking? Findings from 2 nd round of survey A collaborative study by: The Aga Khan Rural Support Programme (India), Action for Social Advancement, Grameen Sahara, i-Saksham, PRADAN, SAATHI-UP, SeSTA, Seva Mandir and Transform Rural India Foundation With research support of: VikasAnvesh Foundation and Sambodhi
Sincere gratitude • To all the villagers we approached for the study, who in these extraordinary times gave their valuable time and input to complete the study. • To all the coordinators of data collection from our partner organizations, and field staff of the partner organizations for their extraordinary efforts to ensure data collection within an extremely tight timeline. • Special thanks, to Sridhar Anantha, for his support in logistics of the study.
Reconnecting with round-1 (1/2) • Households have depended on Kharif stock more than Rabi – but that stock is now dwindling. • Households are coping with the shock by eating less food and lesser number of times and with large dependence on PDS. • Need for food support through PDS and promotion for food crop cultivation in Kharif. • Preparedness for Kharif 2020 is low - need for public support in terms of seed provision and credit for Kharif 2020. • Large chunk of migrants yet to return – but already the increased workload enhances the drudgery faced by the women.
Reconnecting with round-1 (2/2) • Lockdown and rumors have indeed adversely affected income – dairy and poultry. • Coping mechanisms mostly clustered around change in food habits and reduction in expenditures. • Borrowing is taking place – indebtedness might increase if the effect of shock prevails. • Asset sales still low - but already reported by a small fraction of respondents. • Gives a snapshot – to understand how the hinterland is getting affected progressively – more rounds will be needed.
Objectives of the study (round 2) • An assessment of the effect of the COVID-19 induced lockdown on the rural households Compared to 1 st round in April 20 (lockdown), how the situation has • changed in a month of unlock Assessment in 2 nd round is focused on: • • Reverse migration • Food security • Kharif season practices • Drudgery faced by the women in the household • Borrowing and asset sales etc.
Geographical spread • 4835 Households, 11 States, 48 Districts • Data collection took place between 24th June and 8th July States Districts No. of households Assam 3 1132 1200 1053 Bihar 4 1000 Chhattisgarh 4 800 644 Gujarat 2 538 600 375 363 Jharkhand 10 285 400 181 101 84 200 79 Madhya Pradesh 10 0 Odisha 6 Rajasthan 3 Tripura 2 Uttar Pradesh 1 West Bengal 3
Reverse migration Returned Migrants as % of outmigrants % of returned migrants moved Households with outmigrants back to the town/city (n=882) as % of total households (n=4835) 29 25 74 Returned migrants moved back to Outmigrant town/city Migrants who have returned Outmigrants (n=1196)
What returned migrants who are still in villages doing? Activities of returned migrant members in village (n=641) • Returned migrants are engaged mainly in labor work - more than 80% of them 30 % of staying of working migrants 28 • Reflects absence of skilled employment in villages 20 19 • More than 1/4 th of them are still 14 searching for work 7 • 45% of those still in village think 3 they will move back to city • It varies according to their current MGNREGA Kharif work Agricultural Labor in Searching Still under other engagement labor nearby area for a job quarantine
Workload of female members of the household 60 56 52 50 49 50 47 47 • Marginal changes in drudgery 42 42 % of Households 40 • More or less similar situation as 30 round 1. • Changes likely to be induced by 20 season. 10 0 More trips in More time in More demand for More time to fetching water fetching water fuelwood collect fuelwood Round 1 Round 2
Female members of households with returned migrants are worst-off • Drudgery and Migration status • Same pattern has been observed 80 72 during 1 st round as well 71 70 62 57 % of Households 60 55 53 52 47 50 • More members in the households 43 43 39 39 40 where migrant has returned – 30 median household size is 6 vis-à-vis 20 5 in those households where there 10 are no migrants 0 More trips in More time in More More time to fetching fetching demand for collect water water fuelwood fuelwood Migrant Returned Migrant not returned No Migrant
Status of Kharif 2019 food stock 35 • In round 1, 14% households reported no Kharif surplus and 20% reported to 30 last it till May 20. 25 % of Households • If this would have been true 20 assessment, 34% of households should have been without Kharif 15 surplus. 10 5 • But reported % in round 2 is 22%, considerably lower, indicates that 0 household were conservative in their No Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 assessment or their perspective was surplus or influenced by food scarcity. surplus ends May 20 Round 1 (Kharif) (n=4385) Round 2 (Kharif) (n=4230)
Kharif 2020 situation: Less uncertain than what was thought Seed procurement Sources (n=4030) Crop Loan in last month - Sources (n=628) 70 35 32 58 60 30 28 % of Households 50 % of Households 25 20 40 36 17 16 15 13 30 10 20 8 8 5 10 5 0 0 MFI Extended Moneylenders SHG and Bank Carried Purchased Got free Borrowed Other family Other from last from seeds year market
Key livelihood activities Fall in Sales of Dairy, Poultry, Fish and Pigs 50 • Considerable reduction in 50 42 households reporting fall in sales 40 for dairy and poultry % of Households 30 • Possible explanation is increase in 21 18 20 urban economic activities during 15 11 Unlock phase 10 0 Dairy Poultry Fish (n=970) Pig (n=754) (n=1370) (n=1561) Round 1 Round 2
Coping: Immediate adjustments in Food consumption Food Consumption 85 • Considerable improvement 90 84 78 80 68 70 % of Households 56 55 60 • PDS access remains high and 50 50 43 similar 40 30 24 20 14 12 • Lower incidence of buying in 4 10 the market can be attributed to 0 sufficient grains from PDS Reduction Reduction Borrwed Borrowed PDS Bought in meals in meal grains in cooked (n=4402) grains in (n=4811) items the village food* the (n=4811) (n=4811) (n=4811) market* (n=4811) Round 1 Round 2
Coping: Changing the plans in near terms and long term - Improvement in perceptions • Postponing the plans • Possibility of children dropping out from school 35 40 35 29 30 35 32 28 % of Households 30 24 25 23 % of Households 25 20 17 20 13 15 15 10 5 10 0 Postponed a Reduced the guest Postponed 5 ceremony (n=1875) list without purchase of postponement Agricultural tool 0 (n=1205) (n=2548) Round 1 Round 2 (n=3795) Round 1 Round 2
Coping: Mortgaging, borrowing and selling livestock • Fall in the incidence of borrowing 25 22 22 as well as sell of livestock 20 % of Households (n=4835) 16 • But it is difficult to ascertain 15 14 15 whether it reflects improvement or further worsening across the rural 10 households. 10 7 6 5 • Seen together with improvement in food consumption and fewer 0 households reporting fall in sales Mortgaged Borrowed from Borrowed from Sold livestock of dairy and poultry, there is scope household items extended family money lender (n=3100) for optimistic interpretation. Round 2
Coping: Sale of productive assets 6 5 • Scope for cautious optimistic % of Households interpretation. 3 3 • More details, like seasonal patterns, 2 2 2 will be required to interpret this 1 evidence. Sold dry cattle Sold in milk- Mortgaged Sold land (n=2917) cattle land (n=3662) (n=3858) (n=2826) Round 1 Round 2
Uptake of key government schemes • 71% of households have LPG and 85% of those have it through Ujjwala Yojana. • 80% of Ujjwala beneficiaries have received free refill in last month. (June 2020) • 90% households are eligible for PM-KISAN and 38% of those have received the transfer of Rs. 2000.
To summarize (1/2) • Transient phenomenon of Reverse migration? Absence of skilled employment in the villages – reflected in the fact that nearly 2/3 rd of returned • migrants have either migrated again or wish to do so. • Female in household where migrant members have returned experiences more workload compared to other households. • Improved perceptions of how long the food stocks from past Kharif season will last. • Seed availability hints that Kharif situation has turned out to be better than what has been anticipated. • Sales of dairy and poultry seems to have steadied or improved – reflects the nascent buoyancy in economy.
To summarize (2/2) • Marked improvement in food intake – it is likely that grain availability through PDS has helped households to improve the consumption as well as reduced the need to buy from market. • Yet distress incidence still high – sobriety check – 1 in 4 household thinks that they have take the child out of the school. • Lower incidences of borrowing and asset sale – scope for optimistic interpretation though more needs to be known. • Ujjwala Yojana seems to have reached to considerable section of beneficiaries, moderate outcome for frontloaded PM-KISAN transfer
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