How Energy Efficiency cuts costs for a two-degree future Dr. Jakob - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
How Energy Efficiency cuts costs for a two-degree future Dr. Jakob Wachsmuth (Fraunhofer ISI) ECEEE policy seminar After COP21: Potentials and policies for energy efficient decarbonisation Brussels, 8 February 2016 1 Contents How
1
Contents
2
3
Energy Efficiency: A Cheaper path to a two-degree future
INTRODUCTION
4
consumed
sector from economic growth but total consumption is still increasing
0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 1990 2000 2005 2009 2013 k
/ $ 5 p
Energy intensity of industry
World EU USA Brazil Mexico China India 0.000 0.010 0.020 0.030 0.040 0.050 0.060 0.070 1990 2000 2005 2009 2013 koe/$05p
Energy intensity of transport
World EU USA Brazil Mexico China India Source: own representation based on the Enerdata database
INTRODUCTION
5
Aggressive efficiency policies in buildings, transport, industry key to achieving 2 degree target; cheapest carbon abatement in most nations.
Cumulative savings of
$ 2.5 – 2.8 Trillion
to 2030 Annual savings of
$ 440 – 480 Billion
in 2030 Cumulative savings of
$ 750 Billion
to 2030 from historical policies*
* Policies passed since 1990 in 3 Regions: China, European Union, United States
Energy efficient pathway vs. Energy intensive pathway
INTRODUCTION
6
Go Goal: Assess the impact of energy efficiency (EE) on the cost of de deca carbo boni nization ba based d on n existing ng estimates of EE and nd alterna native de deca carbo boni nization me measures
METHODOLOGY
METHODOLOGY
1. Assessment of existing EE policies in the focus regions 2. Review of 2°C scenarios and the role of energy efficiency 3. Projection of cost reductions by EE policies until 2030 4. Conclusions reviewed by local experts
7
A A global team of energy efficiency experts
Project team
Matthias Reuter, Fraunhofer ISI
Hagemann, Niklas Höhne, NewClimate Institute
the greenwerk Steering Committee
Enviromental
University
consultant
Ecole de Management
METHODOLOGY
8
A A global team of energy efficiency experts
Local experts
and Reinaldo C Souza
Ignacio Navarrette Barbosa
METHODOLOGY
$Benefit $Cost emissions reduction
energy efficient pathway energy intensive pathway
Generation Buildings and Industry Transport Intervention Type
A focus on energy efficiency turns abatement costs into abatement benefits.
Even the energy intensive pathway requires lowering annual energy demand in end use sectors by 7 % in 2030 High efficiency in end-use sectors grants significant flexibility in choosing
An energy efficient pathway saves $440–480 Billion globally in comparison to an energy intensive pathway, and yet both mitigate 15’400 Mt of emissions annually in 2030.
Potential Interventions
9
IMPACT
10
Highly efficient buildings come with large abatement potentials, but varying cost-effectiveness. Abatement potentials of RE and nuclear power are by far the largest, but costs of fully exploiting them will be high. Until 2030, use of Carbon Capture & Storage both for power generation and industrial processes is mainly avoidable by energy efficiency & RE. Efficiency gains in industry show huge saving potentials, in particular in heavy industries. Increasing fuel economy of vehicles highly cost-effective with much larger abatement potential than biofuels.
sa saves s $440–480 480 Billio illion globally in comparison to an energy intensive pathway
Power Industry
10 30
Total annual abatement [GtCO2e/y]
50 100
20
Annual specific costs of GHG abatement [USD/tCO2e] Transport Buildings
$Benefit $Cost emissions reduction
IMPACT
11
More than 85% of those savings occur in China, the European Union, and the United States
Results for the Energy Efficiency Pathway for six-regions include $220-250 Billion in annual savings and reductions of 11,000 Mt CO2 equivalent in 2030. Not only is this a significant amount of savings for these regions but it is a large share of the emissions reduction needed reach a two-degree pathway.
IMPACT
12
Energy Efficient vs. Energy Intensive Pathway:
until 2030. The Efficient Pathway achieves additional savings of 4.7 - 6.0 EJ.
billion USD (saving of 10 – 12 USD/tCO2e). Current policies:
have already decreased the net costs by 52 – 64 billion USD per annum.
the iron & steel sector, as well as in petroleum processing and coking.
in HDVs, but also a modal shift in public and freight transport.
REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS
13
Energy Efficient vs. Energy Intensive Pathway:
until 2030. The Efficient Pathway achieves additional savings of 0.7 – 0.8 EJ.
USD (savings of 54 – 55 USD/tCO2e). Current policies:
PROCEL, but retrofits of HVACs and air-conditioning call for additional measures.
seem to be necessary additions to the existing labeling of cars.
IMPACT
14
Energy Efficient vs. Energy Intensive Pathway:
EJ until 2030. The Efficient Pathway doubles the savings (8 – 9 EJ).
billion USD in 2030 (saving of 72 – 75 USD/tCO2e). Current policies:
Ecodesign directive plays a relevant role for heating and electrical appliances .
and lack of EU-wide standards for buildings retrofits leave room for improvements.
IMPACT
15
A lot of levers with abatement benefits are not realized due to market barriersyet. A mix
India
public transport
cooling systems
Brazil & Mexico
MDVs and modal shift
industry
EU
USA
China
waste heat recovery for chemicals)
CONCLUSION
A Cheaper path to a two-degree future
Competence Center Energy Policy and Energy Markets Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI Breslauer Straße 48 | 76139 Karlsruhe | Germany Phone +49 721 6809-632 jakob.wachsmuth@isi.fraunhofer.de http://www.isi.fraunhofer.de
Contact Information
16
17
Energy Efficient vs. Energy Intensive Pathway:
until 2030. The Efficient Pathway achieves additional savings of 6.0 – 6.3 EJ.
billion USD (savings of 29 – 33 USD/tCO2e). Current policies:
induced by CAFE standards for LDVs, appliance standards & building energy codes.
boost energy efficiency throughout all sectors.
IMPACT
18
Energy Efficient vs. Energy Intensive Pathway:
until 2030. The Efficient Pathway achieves additional savings of 1.1 – 1.3 EJ.
billion USD (savings of 6 – 9 USD/tCO2e). Current policies:
potential for reduced fuel consumption (mainly HDVs).
potentials in the buildings sector.
IMPACT
19
Energy Efficient vs. Energy Intensive Pathway:
until 2030. The Efficient Pathway achieves additional savings of 0.1 – 0.2 EJ.
billion USD (saving of 13 - 17 USD/tCO2e). Current policies:
potentials in industry and transport sector addressed only to a minor extent.
potential to target numerous EE options in heavy industry and transport.
IMPACT
2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 20052010202020302040205020602070208020902100
Energy investments [billion USD (2005)/a]
GEA_geala_450_atr_full GEA_geala_450_atr_limbe GEA_geala_450_atr_limbe_limir GEA_geala_450_atr_limir GEA_geala_450_atr_nbecs GEA_geala_450_atr_nbecs_nsink_limbe GEA_geala_450_atr_noccs GEA_geala_450_atr_noccs_nonuc GEA_geala_450_atr_nonuc GEA_geala_450_atr_nsink
20
efficiency when using the same model
Investments (CAPEX & OPEX) in scenarios with high (left) and low efficiency (right):
Source: Enerdata database, which is based on official national statistics
2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 20052010202020302040205020602070208020902100
Energy investments [billion USD (2005)/a]
GEA_geaha_450_atr_full GEA_geaha_450_atr_limbe GEA_geaha_450_atr_limir GEA_geaha_450_atr_nbecs GEA_geaha_450_atr_nonuc GEA_geaha_450_atr_nsink GEA_geaha_450_btr_full
Source: representation by NewClimateInstitute based on the GEA scenario database 20