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How Do We Judge Fracking? Gary Sernovitz Northwest Gas Association - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
How Do We Judge Fracking? Gary Sernovitz Northwest Gas Association - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
How Do We Judge Fracking? Gary Sernovitz Northwest Gas Association June 7, 2017 6/19/17 1 What kind of question is that? 6/19/17 2 Well, in Oregon 6/19/17 3 6/19/17 4 6/19/17 5 6/19/17 6 How Do We Judge Fracking? Industrial
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Well, in Oregon…
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How Do We Judge Fracking?
Industrial Local Financial Global National
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The Industrial Perspective
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The Oil Business: 1858-1998
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The Shale Revolution: 1998
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What took you so long? Shale reservoirs are
~1 Billion Times
worse than conventional reservoirs in terms of permeability and porosity But that’s the secret to why they hold so many hydrocabrons.
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What Was Old What Was New
- 1. High oil and gas prices
- 2. Trial and error
Fracking since ~1946 Directional drilling since 1930s…
- 3. One stubborn rich guy…
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The Local Perspective
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From our assessment, we conclude there are above and below ground mechanisms by which hydraulic fracturing activities have the potential to impact drinking water resources…. We did not find evidence that these mechanisms have led to widespread, systemic impacts
- n drinking water resources in
the United States.
?
EPA Report June 2015
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There are nuisances and accidents near homes
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Is oil and gas unique?
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Pl Play Ho Horizontal We Wells Re Restaurant U. U.S. Lo Locations Eagleford Shale 17,541 Subway 27,205 Barnett Shale 15,608 McDonald's 14,350 Bakken Shale 13,238 Starbucks 12,107 Marcellus Shale 9,458 Dunkin' Donuts 8,082 Fayetteville Shale 5,891 Pizza Hut 7,863 Wolfcamp Midland 4,909 Burger King 7,142 Mississippian 4,856 Taco Bell 5,921 Anadarko Pennsylvanian 4,182 Wendy's 5,780 Wattenberg 4,006 Domino's 5,067 Haynesville Shale 3,926 Dairy Queen 4,512 Bone Spring 3,356 KFC 4,370 Austin Chalk 2,673 Wolfcamp Delaware 2,334 Utica Shale 1,694 Woodford - Arkoma 1,687 Anadarko Wash Plays 1,606 Niobrara Fracture Play 1,525 Cotton Valley 1,171 Woodbine 974 Scoop 480 Anadarko Morrow 313
Tot Total 101, 101,428 428 Tot Total 102, 102,399 399
Source: cumulative horizontal shale wells by basin as of July 2016; IHS Source: QSR 50 as of 2016
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The Financial Perspective
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3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
U.S. Oil Production (MB/D) WTI Oil Price ($/B)
Source: Energy Information Administration
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400,000 new jobs $600 billion in increased U.S.
- il and gas revenue to date
$2 trillion in increased wealth 2 million landowning families , splitting $50 billion in “bonuses” and earning additional $30 billion per year
My careful estimates in early 2015
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And today?
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But ASPEN HOME Issue one: life, liberty, and the pursuit of…
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Issue two: the Internet of oil?
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The Global Perspective
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We don’t agree on much, but peak oil.
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Annual Global Oil Demand Growth
But Something Happened On the Way to the Apocalypse
WTI Oil Price ($/B)
Source: Energy Information Administration Source: International Energy Agency
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Current Current Share 2040 Current Policies: Total Change 2040 Current Policies: Share 2040 New Policies: Total Change 2040 New Policies: Share 2040 450 PPM Scenario: Total Change 2040 450 PPM Scenario: Share Coal 28.8 29% 43% 29% 12% 25%
- 36%
16%
Oil
30.9 31% 27% 27% 12% 26%
- 21%
22%
Gas 21.3 21% 59% 23% 46% 24% 15% 22% Nuclear 4.7 5% 60% 5% 86% 7% 152% 11% Hydro 2.4 2% 56% 3% 63% 3% 80% 4% Bioenergy 10.1 10% 33% 9% 36% 10% 69% 15% Other Renewable 1.2 1% 330% 4% 482% 5% 813% 10% Total 99.4 45% 32% 12%
Oil consumption won’t be driven by oil scarcity….
Source: International Energy Agency
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Coal-Fired: Down by a Third Gas-Fired: Almost Tripled % of U.S. Electricity Generation
Source: Energy Information Administration
Total Carbon Emissions Reduction, 2007—2014 (Million Metric Tons per Year)
U.S .S.A .A (590.8 .8) Spain (118.1) Italy (109.6) United Kingdom (66.4) Canada (57.3) Australia (35.9) France (31.6) Ukraine (25.6) Romania (25.4) Germany (24.8)
Source: Global Carbon Atlas
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How much does methane matter?
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No simple answer to climate change impact…
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The National Perspective
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There is shale oil and gas in a lot of places…
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It has transformed only the United States. Why?
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U.S. Net Imports of Oil and Petroleum Products (MB/D)
How important is this?
Source: Energy Information Administration
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How Do We Judge Fracking?
Industrial Financial Global National Local
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An optimistic national moment…
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