INSIGHT DRIVEN HEALTH INSIGHT DRIVEN HEALTH How digital technology will make care more productive and more personalized KAVEH SAFAVI, M.D., J.D. SENIOR MANAGING DIRECTOR – ACCENTURE GLOBAL HEALTH PRACTICE
“If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.” -Herbert Stein Former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, Presidents Nixon and Ford
OECD HEALTHCARE SPEND GROWING AT GDP + 1.2% OVER PAST DECADE Rate of OECD Expenditure Growth GDP Growth 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 -2% -4% Source: OECD.org & Accenture Analysis
AUSTRALIA'S HEALTHCARE SPENDING EXCEEDS GDP GROWING AT GDP + 1% TO 3%, FOR A CUMULATIVE IMPACT OF GDP +25% OVER PAST DECADE Rate of NHE Inflation GDP Growth 14% 100% Cumulative NHE Impact Cumulative GDP Growth 12% 80% Cumulative Impact Annual Change 10% 60% 8% 6% 40% 4% 20% 2% 0% 0% 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Source: OECD.org & Accenture Analysis
LABOR COSTS UNSUSTAINABLE WITHOUT INNOVATION EXPERT LABOR COSTS GROWING FASTER THAN GDP Conceptual Rate of Cost Increases: Low vs. High Innovation Productivity ≠ Efficiency Personal service labor cost Annual Cost Growth Consumption Productivity without labor High Innovation Sector Years Without innovation, cost of unit care growing faster than GDP due to its reliance on expert labor. Source: Baumol WJ, The Cost Disease, Yale Univ. Press 2012
HEALTHCARE HAS BEEN LOSING PRODUCTIVITY SERVICE SECTOR PRODUCTIVITY DECLINING SINCE 1980S, ESPECIALLY IN HEALTHCARE 3X Gap between most & least productive companies — Average annual rate of change 1987-2014 — Source: Brookings Institution; WSJ, While the Services Sector Booms, Productivity Remains Elusive, November 2016
VALUE IS NEITHER COST NOR OUTCOME FOR PATIENTS Neither Cost or Outcome Not Sure Patients Cost Outcome Cost & Outcome 10 20 30 40 Cost Neither Cost or Outcome Physicians Cost & Outcome Outcome Not Sure “In your own words, how would you define “value” in healthcare? Please be specific.” (unaided response) Source: Quintiles, The New Health Report 2011
COST AND TRUST DOMINATE PATIENT PREFERENCE TOP PATIENT PREFERENCES FOR SELECTING HEALTH SYSTEM Out of Pocket Cost Trust and Respect Multidisciplinary care Shared Decision-making Attention to Personal situation Experience of care provider Care transitions Waiting time for appointments Travel time to provider 0 2 4 6 8 10 Relative Importance 3,900 Respondents asked to rate 21 attributes for 3 scenario (current health, new lung cancer diagnosis, diabetes) Source: Muhlbacher, A., Schulman, K., et al Health Service Research, April 2016
CARE AND COMPASSION QUALITIES OF SERVICES THAT EMPOWER PEOPLE TODAY , DRIVE EXPECTATIONS & INFORM TOMORROW’S SERVICES Simple Easy to navigate and use Seamless Coordinated Consistent experiences Connect and synch at every touch point healthcare info Personalized Transparent Intelligent, tailored health Open and timely access to healthcare info experiences Secure Health data is private and protected Source: FJORD Era of Living Services 2015
COMPETITION AND EXPECTATIONS COMING FROM EVERYWHERE DIRECT COMPETITORS EXPERIENTIAL COMPETITORS PERCEPTUAL COMPETITORS Products or services that directly Companies that sell experiences Companies that change compete with yours that replace yours customer expectations LIQUID CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS
NEW HEALTHCARE PARADIGM PERSONALIZED See Labs Take Vitals VIRTUAL Pay bill Scheduling SELF-SERVICE LOCATION AGNOSTIC
HEALTHCARE WILL BECOME MORE VIRTUAL BENEFITS THE ALREADY SERVED, NOT JUST THE UNDERSERVED Matching supply to demand One to many Asynchronous Augmented experience Digital Therapy Source: Silvercloud
VIRTUAL HEALTH TOOLS UNLOCK PRODUCTIVITY THREE USES AMONG PRIMARY CARE PHYSICIANS Ongoing Patient Self-Management Typical Office Visit Management Allowing more clinical care to get done without expanding the workforce Source: Accenture, “Virtual Health: Untapped Opportunity to get the most out of Healthcare,” 2015
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Automation of routine vs. judgement tasks • Intelligent automation U.S. employment by type of work • Humans + machines • Social + character skills matter Source: Economist, March of the Machines, 2016
WILL THESE PROFESSIONS BECOME AUTOMATED? PROBABILITY OF AUTOMATION OF SELECT PROFESSIONS < 1% > 98% Audiologist Brokerage clerk Choreographer Insurance underwriter Dentist Legal secretary Elementary teacher Loan officer Physical therapists Procurement clerks Physician, surgeon Referees, sports officials Psychologist Tax preparers Public relations Telemarketer Social worker Watch repairer 47% of U.S. employment at risk for automation Source: Economist, March of the Machines, 2016 Frey, C. Osborne, M. The Future of Employment www.oxfordmartin.ox.au.uk 2013
PACE OF ADOPTION THE SHARK FIN ADOPTION CURVE IS GRADUALLY THEN SUDDENLY • High volume of seemingly random market experiments in market Everybody Else • Often from innovators Trial Users outside of industry • Operating on the regulated edges • Failed experiments signal the change about to arrive Old Curve of Market Innovation Innovators Early Adopters Early Majority Late Majority Laggards Source: Big Bang Disruption: Strategy in the Age of Devastating Innovation
SERVICES INNOVATION REQUIRES EXPERIMENTATION Known Unknowns Known Knows Sense Sense Analyze Categorize Respond Respond Unknowable Unknown Unknowns Act Probe Sense Sense Respond Source: Source: Snowden D, Boone M. A Leaders Framework for Decision Making; Harvard Bus. Rev. Nov. 2007
“That it will ever come into general use, Laennec Stethoscope notwithstanding its value, is extremely doubtful because its beneficial application requires much time and gives a good bit of trouble, both to the patient and to the practitioner because its hue and character are foreign and opposed to all our habits and associations.” - The London Times 1834
Kaveh Safavi, MD JD +1 312 693 1541 kaveh.t.safavi@accenture.com @drkavehsafavi kavehsafavi @AccentureHealth
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