Hickory Flat Area Plan Cherokee County, Georgia Development Trends and Existing Conditions First Public Presentation January 2020
ABOUT BLEAKLY ADVISORY GROUP Market Bleakly Advisory Group, Inc. is an Atlanta, Georgia based real Analysis estate and economic development consulting firm. ▪ Founded in 2001 Public Financial ▪ Six-member professional team Finance Analysis Our practice covers six areas in both public and private sectors: Development Real Estate ▪ Market Analysis Advisory Economics ▪ Real Estate Economics ▪ Development Consulting Housing Analysis ▪ Financial Analysis ▪ Incentives & Public Finance ▪ Housing Analysis Ken Bleakly, Founder Geoff Koski, President 404.845.3350 www.bleaklyadvisory.com
HICKORY FLAT AREA PLAN MARKET STUDY Task 3 ▪ Development Strategy SCOPE OF WORK ▪ Which type and scale of development do the Task 1 various demand generators support? ▪ Assess Existing Conditions: Real ▪ Are “anchors” necessary, and how do they fit Estate Demand Drivers into the mix? ▪ Economic and demographic ▪ What is the importance of walkability and characteristics of the mixed-use development? immediate and larger market ▪ What is the importance of public gathering areas spaces/placemaking and other infrastructure? ▪ Stakeholder Interviews ▪ How can the public sector help provide the Task 2 right environment for retail to succeed? ▪ Analyze Current Real Estate ▪ How does this information influence future Supply and Future Demand transportation planning/needs for the area? Potential Task 4 ▪ Residential, retail & other ▪ Final Report and Public Roll-Out commercial/office 3 Hickory Flat Area Plan – Cherokee County, GA 3
PRESENTATION CONTENTS Market Study Scope and Process Existing Conditions and Trends ▪ Population & Demographics ▪ Housing Supply ▪ Commercial Development ▪ Land Use To this point we have documented existing conditions recent growth trends but have drawn no conclusions regarding demand forecasts or other recommendations that will be reported in later phases. 4
HICKORY FLAT STUDY AREA CONTEXT Hickory Flat contains roughly 1.3% of the 10 Miles County’s total land area. 5 Miles Hickory Flat Area Plan – Cherokee County, GA
THE STUDY AREA ▪ The Study Area contains approximately: ▪ 4,600 residents ▪ 2,500 tax parcels ▪ 3,575 acres ▪ 1,640 completed Library housing units ▪ 400,000 SF of commercial development ▪ $700 million taxable real estate value ▪ Roughly 2.6% of Cherokee County’s total tax base
INCORPORATED AND UNINCORPORATED PARCELS ▪ Roughly 465 acres (13%) of the Study Area’s is within the City of Holly Springs Source: Bleakly Advisory Group based on data from Cherokee County Dept. of Planning & Zoning Hickory Flat Area Plan – Cherokee County, GA 7
Demographics Hickory Flat Area Plan – Cherokee County, GA 8
TOTAL POPULATION Hickory Flat Share (%) of Cherokee Hickory Flat Cherokee County County Population 2.0% 2000 Census 1,878 141,915 2010 Census 3,399 214,346 1.5% 2020 Estimate 4,582 262,748 2025 Projection 5,013 283,563 1.0% Population Growth New Population 2000-2020 2,704 120,833 0.5% Avg. Annual Growth 2000-2010 6.1% 4.2% Avg. Annual Growth 2010-2020 3.0% 2.1% 0.0% Avg. Annual Growth 2020-2025 1.8% 1.5% 2000 2010 2020 2025 Census Census Estimate Projection Source: Bleakly Advisory Group, based on data from Claritas, Environics Analytics The estimated current study area population is just under 4,600 ▪ Less than 1.8% of the County’s total population ▪ Has increased by more than 140% since 2000 The rate of population growth locally and county-wide is projected to slow in the near term, but the study area is expected to continue to grow faster than the County through 2025 Hickory Flat Area Plan – Cherokee County, GA 9
Source: Bleakly Advisory Group, based on data from Claritas, Environics Analytics AGE DISTRIBUTION Hickory Flat Share (%) of Cherokee County Hickory Flat Cherokee County 2.5% 2020 Est. Population by Age & Generational Cohort Generation Z (Ages 8-23) 25.4% 24.2% 2.0% Millennials (Ages 24-39) 18.2% 21.4% Generation X (Ages 40-55) 25.1% 25.3% 1.5% Boomers (Ages 56-74) 25.5% 23.3% 1.0% Silent (Ages 75-92) 4.5% 4.5% Greatest (Ages 93+) 1.3% 1.2% 0.5% Children (Ages 0-17) 26.5% 26.3% Seniors (Ages 65+) 16.8% 16.2% 0.0% Median Age 41.4 39.5 Generation Millennials Generation Boomers Seniors Z (24-39) X (56-74) (65+) (8-23) (40-55) Hickory Flat has a slightly older population age distribution than the County as a whole Hickory Flat Area Plan – Cherokee County, GA 10
Source: Bleakly Advisory Group, based on data from Claritas, Environics Analytics INCOME DISTRIBUTION Households Hickory Flat Cherokee County Hickory Flat Share (%) of Cherokee County 2020 Est. Household Income >$100K Median Income $104,125 $84,200 Households earning <$15K 3.7% 5.7% $50K - $100K Households earning $15K - $35K 9.5% 11.0% Households earning $35K - $50K 6.3% 10.3% $35K - $50K Households earning $50K - $100K 28.3% 31.9% Households earning >$100K 52.2% 41.1% $15K - $35K <$15K 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% The income distribution of Hickory Flat households is consistent with the area’s housing composition ▪ Smaller percentage of low-income households and much higher percentage of households earning incomes above $100,000 compared to the County as a whole ▪ Median household income is nearly 24% higher than the County-wide median ▪ The income distribution is attractive to retail development Hickory Flat Area Plan – Cherokee County, GA 11
Source: Bleakly Advisory Group, based on data from OnTheMap (2017) US Census Bureau EMPLOYEE INFLOW/OUTFLOW Census data (from 2017) identified existing jobs (including school district employment) located inside the study area, area residents who are in the labor force, and commuting patterns into and out of the study area. ▪ 98% of the 1,651 employees who work in the study area live outside 1,621 – Employed in of it and commute in (inflow). Hickory Flat and Live outside study area ▪ 98% of the 1,519 employed residents who live in the study area work outside of it and commute out (outflow). ▪ Only 2% of residents in the study area also work in the study area. ▪ The School District accounts for about 20% of locally based jobs (320) 30 – Employed and Live in 2002 - 2017 study area Worker Flows (Total Jobs) Hickory Flat 2,000 300 1,500 0 1,489 – Live in Hickory Flat and Employed 1,000 outside study area -300 500 0 -600 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Inflow Outflow Net Job Inflow Hickory Flat Area Plan – Cherokee County, GA 12
Source: Bleakly Advisory Group, based on data from OnTheMap (2017) US Census Bureau COMMUTING PATTERNS - OUTFLOW ▪ This map estimates the number of working residents commuting Cherokee outside Hickory Flat based off their Forsyth employer’s physical Bartow address in each corresponding ZIP code tabulation area (ZCTA). ▪ Working residents in Hickory Flat are primarily Fulton employed throughout Cherokee County as well as a couple hundred in Cobb and Fulton Counties. Cobb Gwinnett De Kalb Hickory Flat Area Plan – Cherokee County, GA
COMMUTING PATTERNS - INFLOW ▪ The highest concentration of Hickory Flat workers is ▪ This map estimates the number of employees within central and southeastern Cherokee County in commuting into Hickory Flat based off their residence unincorporated areas as well as cities such as Canton in each corresponding ZIP code tabulation area (ZCTA). and Woodstock. ▪ Roughly 3,200 students are also transported daily to Hickory Flat’s 3 public schools Cherokee Forsyth Bartow Fulton Cobb Source: Bleakly Advisory Group, based on data from OnTheMap (2017) US Census Bureau Hickory Flat Area Plan – Cherokee County, GA
Housing Hickory Flat Area Plan – Cherokee County, GA 15
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS Hickory Flat Cherokee County Hickory Flat Share (%) of Cherokee 2020 Est. Housing Tenure, Value, & Age County Owner-occupied 1,434 74,595 Renter-occupied 141 19,416 2.5% Percent Owner-occupied 91.0% 79.0% 2.0% Median Home Value $345,766 $296,435 Median Age of Housing (Year Built) 14 17 1.5% 2020 Est. Housing Type 1.0% Single-family Homes 1,574 82,069 Townhomes 38 4,420 0.5% Multifamily 14 10,109 0.0% Mobile Homes/ Other 14 4,039 Single-family Townhome Multifamily Mobile Source: Bleakly Advisory Group, based on data from Claritas, Environics Analytics Homes 1,640 total housing units – 96% single family homes Hickory Flat has a higher concentration of single-family homes, higher median home values and fewer renter-occupied housing units than the County as a whole Median home value is almost 17% higher than the County-wide median Hickory Flat Area Plan – Cherokee County, GA 16
Recommend
More recommend
