Heuristic Theory of Decision-Making: Evidence and Implications for - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

APPLIED VOCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY AND POLICY RESEARCH UNIT

Heuristic Theory of Decision-Making: Evidence and Implications for Career Guidance

AIOSP/IAEVG International Conference Buenos Aires, Argentina, September 18-20, 2008 Jean-Jacques Ruppert and Bernd-Joachim Ertelt

Thursday, 14 October 2010

APPLIED VOCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY AND POLICY RESEARCH UNIT

Stages and Steps in Decision-Making (Problem Solving)

Stages Steps: information activities

1 individual acknowledges existence of a problem and necessity to deal with it 2 search for alternatives followed by weighing of alternatives by criteria 3 ranking of alternatives

Pre-Decision Resolution & Commitment Post-Decision

3 2 5 4 1 Emotions: no existing problem-solving programme in long-term memory

time constraints personal importance success not guaranteed (incompleteness of available information)

2

Thursday, 14 October 2010

APPLIED VOCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY AND POLICY RESEARCH UNIT

Stages and Steps in Decision-Making (Problem Solving)

Stages Step: information activity

4 resolution and commitment followed by implementation of decision, realisation

Pre-Decision Resolution & Commitment Post-Decision

3 2 5 4 1 Emotion: reactance: a response of resistance aroused in a person who feels

his or her freedom of choice is threatened or impeded (OED)

3

Thursday, 14 October 2010

APPLIED VOCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY AND POLICY RESEARCH UNIT

Stages and Steps in Decision-Making (Problem Solving)

Stages Step: information activity

5 comparison of expected and of observed present situation, and evaluation of present situation

Pre-Decision Resolution & Commitment Post-Decision

3 2 5 4 1 Emotions: coping strategies: reducing ‘cognitive dissonance’

a) manipulation of information b) adaptation of personal standards c) switching alternatives or escaping/resigning

4

Thursday, 14 October 2010

DECISION-MAKING MODELS

APPLIED VOCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY AND POLICY RESEARCH UNIT

• I. prescriptive models: rational normative
• II. descriptive models: heuristics

5

Thursday, 14 October 2010

APPLIED VOCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY AND POLICY RESEARCH UNIT

• I. prescriptive models: rational normative

some characteristics

• decision-maker knows all available alternatives
• evaluation of each alternative using exhaustive criteria
• decision-maker will opt for a specific alternative
• nly as a function of its subjective expected utility (SEU)

6

Thursday, 14 October 2010

APPLIED VOCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY AND POLICY RESEARCH UNIT

• II. descriptive models: heuristics

some characteristics

• decision-maker uses an incremental approach
• decision-maker considers only a limited number of alternatives
• consequences are evaluated on a limited number of criteria only
• problem solving task is not completed in order to remain

adaptable to new information

• decision-maker tries to solve problem in the short-term

7

Thursday, 14 October 2010

APPLIED VOCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY AND POLICY RESEARCH UNIT 8

Thursday, 14 October 2010

APPLIED VOCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY AND POLICY RESEARCH UNIT

STAGES IN DECISION-MAKING

all 7th final year (secondary) 4th year (secondary) 3rd year (technical) I have not thought all that much about it 5.2% 3.5% 7.2% 4.8% I have been thinking about the pros and cons but am still undecided 63.3% 47.4% 80.8% 60.5% I know more or less what I will do but still need further information 63.3% 47.4% 80.8% 60.5% I know exactly what I will do and do not need any further information 39.5% 49.1% 12.0% 34.7% I have already decided what I will do but still need further information to realize it 39.5% 49.1% 12.0% 34.7%

100.00 % 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

J-J Ruppert & B-J Ertelt, 2008

9

Thursday, 14 October 2010

APPLIED VOCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY AND POLICY RESEARCH UNIT

“organisms”

all 7th final year (secondary) 4th year (secondary) 3rd year (technical)

internet 44.3% 49.0% 46.6% 38.1% written information material 14.7% 9.8% 21.1% 14.4% “school” 11.1% 6.7% 14.9% 12.4% higher & further education information centre (CEDIES) (1.1%) 29.9%

• educational psychology and guidance

service within the school (SPOS) (8.26%) (1.03%) (6.83%) 16.3%

SOURCES OF INFORMATION

J-J Ruppert & B-J Ertelt, 2008

10

Thursday, 14 October 2010

APPLIED VOCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY AND POLICY RESEARCH UNIT

people

all 7th final year (secondary) 4th year (secondary) 3rd year (technical)

parents / siblings / “family” 40.8% 32.5% 48.8% 39.4% teachers 20.1% 15.3% 20.3% 20.2% friends 20.3% 30.1% 18.8% 14.9% people with professional experience in target profession (7.20%) (14.1%) (6.8%) (2.39%) staff at various guidance services / centres: CEDIES, SPOS, BIZ, ALJ (7.0%) 2.3% 1.9% 14.9%

SOURCES OF INFORMATION

J-J Ruppert & B-J Ertelt, 2008

11

Thursday, 14 October 2010

APPLIED VOCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY AND POLICY RESEARCH UNIT

all 7th final year (secondary) 4th year (secondary) 3rd year (technical)

very satisfied 57.4% 56.6% 49.6% 64.8% satisfied 57.4% 56.6% 49.6% 64.8% neither ... nor ... 35.3% 36.3% 40.8% 29.7% not satisfied 7.3% 7.1% 9.6% 5.5% not satisfied at all 7.3% 7.1% 9.6% 5.5% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

SATISFACTION WITH INFORMATION

J-J Ruppert & B-J Ertelt, 2008

12

Thursday, 14 October 2010

APPLIED VOCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY AND POLICY RESEARCH UNIT

SATISFACTION WITH INFORMATION

J-J Ruppert & B-J Ertelt, 2008

• the male students considered themselves better informed

than the female students (p= 0.0287)

• the satisfaction with the information received varied

significantly as a function of the class students were in: (p=0.0039) with above all the 3rd year technical students considering themselves significantly better informed than the 4th year secondary school students

statistically significant differences

13

Thursday, 14 October 2010

APPLIED VOCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY AND POLICY RESEARCH UNIT

PERCEIVED IMPORTANCE OF DECISION

(involvement)

all 7th final year (secondary) 4th year (secondary) 3rd year (technical)

very important 91.2% 97.4% 86.4% 90.5% important 91.2% 97.4% 86.4% 90.5% neither ... nor ... 8.3% 2.6% 12.8% 8.8% not important 0.5% 0.0% 0.8% 0.7% not important at all 0.5% 0.0% 0.8% 0.7% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

J-J Ruppert & B-J Ertelt, 2008

14

Thursday, 14 October 2010

APPLIED VOCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY AND POLICY RESEARCH UNIT

J-J Ruppert & B-J Ertelt, 2008

• the perceived importance of decision varied significantly as

a function of the class the students were in (p< 0.0001), the final year secondary students and the 3rd year technical students regarding the decision significantly more important than the 4th year secondary school students

statistically significant differences

PERCEIVED IMPORTANCE OF DECISION

(involvement)

15

Thursday, 14 October 2010

APPLIED VOCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY AND POLICY RESEARCH UNIT

PERCEIVED DIFFICULTY OF DECISION

all 7th final year (secondary) 4th year (secondary) 3rd year (technical)

very difficult 16.6% 22.8% 14.4% 13.6% difficult 16.6% 22.8% 14.4% 13.6% neither ... nor ... 41.7% 43.9% 36.8% 44.2% not difficult 41.7% 33.3% 48.8% 42.2% not difficult at all 41.7% 33.3% 48.8% 42.2% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

J-J Ruppert & B-J Ertelt, 2008

16

Thursday, 14 October 2010

APPLIED VOCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY AND POLICY RESEARCH UNIT

J-J Ruppert & B-J Ertelt, 2008

• the perceived difficulty of decision varied significantly as a

function of the class the students were in (p= 0.0055), the final year secondary students considering the decision significantly more difficult than the 4th year secondary school students and the 3rd year technical students

statistically significant differences

PERCEIVED DIFFICULTY OF DECISION

17

Thursday, 14 October 2010

APPLIED VOCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY AND POLICY RESEARCH UNIT

PROFESSED DECISION-MAKING STRATEGIES USED

• nly points 1 + 2

I decide in favour of the alternative which appeals most strongly to me. 88.6% I decide in favour of the alternative which I first realise to be“good/correct” (which meets my first expectations). 54.7% I guide myself upon the advice of people who are important to me (e.g. my parents). 47.6% I avoid any risks and decide in favour of the alternative which I know already quite well: I can always improve on it later. 41.3% I know the alternatives so well that I can make a clear decision. 40.3% I decide in favour of the alternative which differs positively from another even if it does so on one criterion only. 35.1%

scale: 1= very much applies - 2= applies - 3=neither ... nor ... 4= does not apply - 5 = does not apply at all

J-J Ruppert & B-J Ertelt, 2008

18

Thursday, 14 October 2010

APPLIED VOCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY AND POLICY RESEARCH UNIT

• nly points 1 + 2

“take the best” heuristic

88.6%

“take the first” heuristic

54.7%

“social rationality” heuristic (personal control)

47.6%

“incremental” heuristic

41.3%

“optimizing”

40.3%

“minimalist” heuristic

35.1%

J-J Ruppert & B-J Ertelt, 2008

PROFESSED DECISION-MAKING STRATEGIES USED

scale: 1= very much applies - 2= applies - 3=neither ... nor ... 4= does not apply - 5 = does not apply at all

19

Thursday, 14 October 2010

APPLIED VOCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY AND POLICY RESEARCH UNIT

statistically significant differences

J-J Ruppert & B-J Ertelt, 2008

“ I guide myself upon the advice of people who are important to me (e.g. my parents).”

• as a function of the class they were in the students

reacted highly significantly differently to this statement (p= 0.0011) with the 3rd year technical students agreeing significantly more with the statement than the final year and the 4th secondary school students (“social rationality” heuristic (personal control))

PROFESSED DECISION-MAKING STRATEGIES USED

20

Thursday, 14 October 2010

APPLIED VOCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY AND POLICY RESEARCH UNIT

statistically significant differences

J-J Ruppert & B-J Ertelt, 2008

“I avoid any risks and decide in favour of the alternative which I know already quite well: I can always improve on it later.”

• as a function of the class they were in the students

reacted highly significantly differently to this statement (p= 0.0040) with the 3rd year technical students agreeing significantly less with the statement than the final year and the 4th secondary school students (incremental heuristic)

PROFESSED DECISION-MAKING STRATEGIES USED

21

Thursday, 14 October 2010

APPLIED VOCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY AND POLICY RESEARCH UNIT

statistically significant differences

J-J Ruppert & B-J Ertelt, 2008

“I know the alternatives so well that I can make a clear decision.”

• the male students expressed greater agreement with this

statement than the female students (p= 0.0248) (optimizing)

PROFESSED DECISION-MAKING STRATEGIES USED

22

Thursday, 14 October 2010

APPLIED VOCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY AND POLICY RESEARCH UNIT

STUDENTS’ REQUESTS FOR INFORMATION

J-J Ruppert & B-J Ertelt, 2008

students were asked to rank their selected questions in order of personal importance

What is the profile (e.g. study contents) of a specific educational stream/vocational training scheme ? How can I find out whether I am suited for a specific educational stream/vocational training scheme ? How can I find out whether I am suited for a specific profession ? What are my possibilities after having reached my educational/vocational training goal ? What are my possibilities if I fail to reach my educational/vocational training goal ? What are the prospects on the labour market ? How can I get information on educational streams/vocational training schemes respectively on professions ? How, from whom and from where can I get help ? possibility for students to enter a question of their own

23

Thursday, 14 October 2010

APPLIED VOCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY AND POLICY RESEARCH UNIT

all 7th final year (secondary) 4th year (secondary) 3rd year (technical)

possibilities after qualifying (reaching educ./training goal) most important most important most important 2nd suitability for specific profession 2nd 2nd 3rd most important suitability for specific training/education 3rd 4th 2nd 5th prospects on the labour market 4th 3rd 4th 4th possibilities after failing to attain educ./training goal 5th 5th (6th) 3rd

J-J Ruppert & B-J Ertelt, 2008

STUDENTS’ REQUESTS FOR INFORMATION

the table below ranks the level of personal importance attached to the selected questions

24

Thursday, 14 October 2010

APPLIED VOCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY AND POLICY RESEARCH UNIT

CONCLUSIONS

• 1. invest more in post-decision stages i.e. in the

follow-up of counselees

• 2. “teach” students information management

above all regarding internet use in relation to career decision-making

general

J-J Ruppert & B-J Ertelt, 2008

25

Thursday, 14 October 2010

APPLIED VOCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY AND POLICY RESEARCH UNIT

• 3. “educate” parents and close relatives in order

to put them into a situation where they can (more) effectively accompany their children in their career choices

J-J Ruppert & B-J Ertelt, 2008

26

Thursday, 14 October 2010

APPLIED VOCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY AND POLICY RESEARCH UNIT

CONCLUSIONS

• 1. increase investment into improved initial and

continuous training for career guidance counsellors in order to enable them to deliver expert, objective and ethically sound advice

• 2. promote open-mindedness and ability to

question oneself in counsellors

regarding counsellors

J-J Ruppert & B-J Ertelt, 2008

27

Thursday, 14 October 2010

APPLIED VOCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY AND POLICY RESEARCH UNIT

• 3. train counsellors in “cognitive empathy” i.e.

enable them to better tune into the guiding heuristics of the counselees and to explore these with the counselees

J-J Ruppert & B-J Ertelt, 2008

28

Thursday, 14 October 2010

APPLIED VOCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY AND POLICY RESEARCH UNIT

Thank you for your attention.

Jean-Jacques Ruppert and Bernd-Joachim Ertelt

Thursday, 14 October 2010

APPLIED VOCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY AND POLICY RESEARCH UNIT

8, rue Joseph Wester L-4349 Esch-sur-Alzette e-mail: info@avopp.lu LUXEMBOURG website: www.avopp.lu

jean-jacques.ruppert@education.lu prof.ertelt@gmx.net

Thursday, 14 October 2010