A PPLIED V OCATIONAL P SYCHOLOGY AND P OLICY R ESEARCH U NIT Heuristic Theory of Decision-Making: Evidence and Implications for Career Guidance AIOSP/IAEVG International Conference Buenos Aires, Argentina, September 18-20, 2008 Jean-Jacques Ruppert and Bernd-Joachim Ertelt Thursday, 14 October 2010
A PPLIED V OCATIONAL P SYCHOLOGY AND P OLICY R ESEARCH U NIT Stages and Steps in Decision-Making (Problem Solving) Stages Resolution & Pre-Decision Commitment Post-Decision 1 2 3 4 5 Steps: information activities 1 individual acknowledges existence of a problem and necessity to deal with it 2 search for alternatives followed by weighing of alternatives by criteria 3 ranking of alternatives Emotions: no existing problem-solving programme in long-term memory time constraints personal importance success not guaranteed (incompleteness of available information) 2 Thursday, 14 October 2010
A PPLIED V OCATIONAL P SYCHOLOGY AND P OLICY R ESEARCH U NIT Stages and Steps in Decision-Making (Problem Solving) Stages Resolution & Pre-Decision Commitment Post-Decision 1 2 3 4 5 Step: information activity 4 resolution and commitment followed by implementation of decision, realisation Emotion: reactance: a response of resistance aroused in a person who feels his or her freedom of choice is threatened or impeded (OED) 3 Thursday, 14 October 2010
A PPLIED V OCATIONAL P SYCHOLOGY AND P OLICY R ESEARCH U NIT Stages and Steps in Decision-Making (Problem Solving) Stages Resolution & Pre-Decision Commitment Post-Decision 1 2 3 4 5 Step: information activity 5 comparison of expected and of observed present situation, and evaluation of present situation Emotions: coping strategies: reducing ‘cognitive dissonance’ a) manipulation of information b) adaptation of personal standards c) switching alternatives or escaping/resigning 4 Thursday, 14 October 2010
A PPLIED V OCATIONAL P SYCHOLOGY AND P OLICY R ESEARCH U NIT DECISION-MAKING MODELS I. prescriptive models: rational normative II. descriptive models: heuristics 5 Thursday, 14 October 2010
A PPLIED V OCATIONAL P SYCHOLOGY AND P OLICY R ESEARCH U NIT I. prescriptive models: rational normative some characteristics - decision-maker knows all available alternatives - evaluation of each alternative using exhaustive criteria - decision-maker will opt for a specific alternative only as a function of its subjective expected utility (SEU) 6 Thursday, 14 October 2010
A PPLIED V OCATIONAL P SYCHOLOGY AND P OLICY R ESEARCH U NIT II. descriptive models: heuristics some characteristics - decision-maker uses an incremental approach - decision-maker considers only a limited number of alternatives - consequences are evaluated on a limited number of criteria only - problem solving task is not completed in order to remain adaptable to new information - decision-maker tries to solve problem in the short-term 7 Thursday, 14 October 2010
A PPLIED V OCATIONAL P SYCHOLOGY AND P OLICY R ESEARCH U NIT 8 Thursday, 14 October 2010
A PPLIED V OCATIONAL P SYCHOLOGY AND P OLICY R ESEARCH U NIT STAGES IN DECISION-MAKING all 7th final 4th year 3rd year year (secondary) (technical) (secondary) I have not thought all that much about it 5.2% 3.5% 7.2% 4.8% I have been thinking about the pros and cons but am still undecided 63.3% 63.3% 47.4% 47.4% 80.8% 80.8% 60.5% 60.5% I know more or less what I will do but still need further information I know exactly what I will do and do not need any further information 39.5% 39.5% 49.1% 49.1% 12.0% 12.0% 34.7% 34.7% I have already decided what I will do but still need further information to realize it 100.00 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% % J-J Ruppert & B-J Ertelt, 2008 9 Thursday, 14 October 2010
A PPLIED V OCATIONAL P SYCHOLOGY AND P OLICY R ESEARCH U NIT SOURCES OF INFORMATION all 7th final year 4th year 3rd year “organisms” (secondary) (secondary) (technical) internet 44.3% 49.0% 46.6% 38.1% written information material 14.7% 9.8% 21.1% 14.4% “school” 11.1% 6.7% 14.9% 12.4% higher & further education (1.1%) 29.9% - - information centre (CEDIES) educational psychology and guidance (8.26%) (1.03%) (6.83%) 16.3% service within the school (SPOS) J-J Ruppert & B-J Ertelt, 2008 10 Thursday, 14 October 2010
A PPLIED V OCATIONAL P SYCHOLOGY AND P OLICY R ESEARCH U NIT SOURCES OF INFORMATION all 7th final year 4th year 3rd year people (secondary) (secondary) (technical) parents / siblings / “family” 40.8% 32.5% 48.8% 39.4% teachers 20.1% 15.3% 20.3% 20.2% friends 20.3% 30.1% 18.8% 14.9% people with professional experience (7.20%) (14.1%) (6.8%) (2.39%) in target profession staff at various guidance services / (7.0%) 2.3% 1.9% 14.9% centres: CEDIES, SPOS, BIZ, ALJ J-J Ruppert & B-J Ertelt, 2008 11 Thursday, 14 October 2010
A PPLIED V OCATIONAL P SYCHOLOGY AND P OLICY R ESEARCH U NIT SATISFACTION WITH INFORMATION all 7th final year 4th year 3rd year (secondary) (secondary) (technical) very satisfied 57.4% 57.4% 56.6% 56.6% 49.6% 49.6% 64.8% 64.8% satisfied neither ... nor ... 35.3% 36.3% 40.8% 29.7% not satisfied 7.3% 7.3% 7.1% 7.1% 9.6% 9.6% 5.5% 5.5% not satisfied at all 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% J-J Ruppert & B-J Ertelt, 2008 12 Thursday, 14 October 2010
A PPLIED V OCATIONAL P SYCHOLOGY AND P OLICY R ESEARCH U NIT SATISFACTION WITH INFORMATION statistically significant differences - the male students considered themselves better informed than the female students (p= 0.0287) - the satisfaction with the information received varied significantly as a function of the class students were in: (p=0.0039) with above all the 3rd year technical students considering themselves significantly better informed than the 4th year secondary school students J-J Ruppert & B-J Ertelt, 2008 13 Thursday, 14 October 2010
A PPLIED V OCATIONAL P SYCHOLOGY AND P OLICY R ESEARCH U NIT PERCEIVED IMPORTANCE OF DECISION (involvement) all 7th final year 4th year 3rd year (secondary) (secondary) (technical) very important 91.2% 91.2% 97.4% 97.4% 86.4% 86.4% 90.5% 90.5% important neither ... nor ... 8.3% 2.6% 12.8% 8.8% not important 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% not important at all 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% J-J Ruppert & B-J Ertelt, 2008 14 Thursday, 14 October 2010
A PPLIED V OCATIONAL P SYCHOLOGY AND P OLICY R ESEARCH U NIT PERCEIVED IMPORTANCE OF DECISION (involvement) statistically significant differences - the perceived importance of decision varied significantly as a function of the class the students were in (p< 0.0001), the final year secondary students and the 3rd year technical students regarding the decision significantly more important than the 4th year secondary school students J-J Ruppert & B-J Ertelt, 2008 15 Thursday, 14 October 2010
A PPLIED V OCATIONAL P SYCHOLOGY AND P OLICY R ESEARCH U NIT PERCEIVED DIFFICULTY OF DECISION all 7th final year 4th year 3rd year (secondary) (secondary) (technical) very difficult 16.6% 16.6% 22.8% 22.8% 14.4% 14.4% 13.6% 13.6% difficult neither ... nor ... 41.7% 43.9% 36.8% 44.2% not difficult 41.7% 41.7% 33.3% 33.3% 48.8% 48.8% 42.2% 42.2% not difficult at all 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% J-J Ruppert & B-J Ertelt, 2008 16 Thursday, 14 October 2010
A PPLIED V OCATIONAL P SYCHOLOGY AND P OLICY R ESEARCH U NIT PERCEIVED DIFFICULTY OF DECISION statistically significant differences - the perceived difficulty of decision varied significantly as a function of the class the students were in (p= 0.0055), the final year secondary students considering the decision significantly more difficult than the 4th year secondary school students and the 3rd year technical students J-J Ruppert & B-J Ertelt, 2008 17 Thursday, 14 October 2010
A PPLIED V OCATIONAL P SYCHOLOGY AND P OLICY R ESEARCH U NIT PROFESSED DECISION-MAKING STRATEGIES USED scale: 1= very much applies - 2= applies - 3=neither ... nor ... 4= does not apply - 5 = does not apply at all only points 1 + 2 I decide in favour of the alternative which appeals most 88.6% strongly to me. I decide in favour of the alternative which I first realise to 54.7% be“good/correct” (which meets my first expectations). I guide myself upon the advice of people who are important to 47.6% me (e.g. my parents). I avoid any risks and decide in favour of the alternative which 41.3% I know already quite well: I can always improve on it later . I know the alternatives so well that I can make a clear decision. 40.3% I decide in favour of the alternative which differs positively 35.1% from another even if it does so on one criterion only . J-J Ruppert & B-J Ertelt, 2008 18 Thursday, 14 October 2010
A PPLIED V OCATIONAL P SYCHOLOGY AND P OLICY R ESEARCH U NIT PROFESSED DECISION-MAKING STRATEGIES USED scale: 1= very much applies - 2= applies - 3=neither ... nor ... 4= does not apply - 5 = does not apply at all only points 1 + 2 “take the best” heuristic 88.6% “take the first” heuristic 54.7% “social rationality” heuristic (personal control) 47.6% “incremental” heuristic 41.3% “optimizing” 40.3% “minimalist” heuristic 35.1% J-J Ruppert & B-J Ertelt, 2008 19 Thursday, 14 October 2010
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