SLIDE 15 Why invest in Large & Mid Cap Strategy
15
10 13 14 15 16 17 18 Earnings growth (TTM) Broad Market Nifty
- Data suggests that over long periods, category average returns
for large caps and mid / small cap are comparable globally as well as in India. However, there are periods when mid / small cap outperform largecaps and vice versa (Table 1).
- Outperformance during CY14-17 in Midcap / Smallcap indices
vs Largecap indices was driven mainly by P/E rerating and less by higher profit growth. This probably led to an over valuation
- f mid / small caps. (Chart 1 & 2)
- Subsequently, with the correction in mid / small cap stocks in
2018 & 2019, 10 year returns and valuations for Large caps and mid / small caps have converged. Hence, in our judgment, the returns of large cap and mid / small cap should not diverge materially over the medium to long term.
- Also, the rally in NIFTY50 was a narrow rally. Top 5 stocks
contributed to 152% & 81% of NIFTY 50 returns in CY18 & CY19
- respectively. In our judgment, such conditions will be short
lived and we expect markets to be more broad based.
Historical indicators are no guarantee of future results, Source: Morgan Stanley, MSCI data, Bloomberg, Broad Market as defined by Morgan Stanley stands for listed Indian companies with quarterly data for 8 or more quarters which comes to about 1200 companies.
Table 1 Chart 1 Chart 2 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 050607080910111213141516171819 NIFTY Midcap premium to NIFTY 50 Average in % CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17 CY18 CY19 YTD upto 27th Dec 5 Years CAGR 10 Years CAGR 15 Years CAGR Nifty 50 31.4
3.0 28.6 3.2 12.7 8.1 8.9 12.5 NIFTY 500 37.8
3.8 35.9
5.7 7.4 8.4 11.9 NIFTY MidCap 55.9 6.5 7.1 47.3
6.2 8.6 8.6 NIFTY SmallCap 55.0 7.2 2.3 57.3
1.2 4.8 9.9 Midcap O/p 24.5 10.5 4.1 18.6
MSCI World Small Cap 0.4
10.9 20.9
20.1 6.8 8.9 6.3 MSCI World 2.9
5.3 20.1
21.7 6.7 7.3 4.8 MSCI US Small Cap 11.1
9.2 19.5
25.6 9.4 11.3 6.9 MSCI US 6.0
17.8 15.6
22.3 7.5 11.3 7.3 MSCI EM Small Cap
0.3 31.2
3.0 0.7 0.7 5.1 MSCI EM
8.6 34.3
7.7 3.2 1.2 4.9
Refer disclaimers at the end of the presentation
Hence, to achieve better portfolio diversification across cycles, a blended portfolio with minimum 1/3rd allocation each to Largecap & Mid Cap stocks can offer better risk adjusted returns
- Large Cap composition will offer stability to the portfolio
- Mid Caps will target for superior return through stock selection