July 20 Table of Contents Market Outlook What is definition of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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July 20 Table of Contents Market Outlook What is definition of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

July 20 Table of Contents Market Outlook What is definition of Value for HDFC Capital Builder Value Fund? Why invest in HDFC Capital Builder Value Fund Investment Approach Stock Selection Sector Allocation


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SLIDE 1

July 20

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SLIDE 2

Table of Contents

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  • Market Outlook
  • What is definition of Value for HDFC Capital Builder Value Fund?
  • Why invest in HDFC Capital Builder Value Fund
  • Investment Approach
  • Stock Selection
  • Sector Allocation
  • Large/Mid/Small-Cap break-up
  • Portfolio Characteristics
  • Portfolio Statistics
  • Top 10 Holdings
  • Fund Suitability
  • Scheme Facts
  • Scheme Performance
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SLIDE 3

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Market Outlook

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Equity Markets Update – Valuation near previous lows

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  • Markets were down by 23% in March 20 (one of the sharpest monthly falls) led by highest ever monthly FPI outflows
  • FY21 P/E is less relevant due to significant dislocation of profits expected in several sectors. NIFTY 50 (30-June-20)

is trading at FY22 P/E of 16.8 times (Source: Kotak Insti Equities)

  • Price / Book Value, Marketcap / GDP are better measures in current situation. Prevailing Price / Book Value ,

Marketcap / GDP are comparable with market bottoms in earlier crises (refer chart above)

Source: Kotak Insti Equities, CY20 & CY21 ratio based on current Market cap and GDP estimates of CY20 & CY21 India market cap to GDP ratio, calendar year-ends, 2000-21E (%)

Refer Disclaimer on Slide 23

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SLIDE 5

Low Market Cap to GDP – What does history tell us ?

5 End of Calendar Year Marketcap to GDP % Next 1 year NIFTY returns Next 3 year NIFTY returns 2003 48 11% 111% 2004 55 36% 195% 2008 56 76% 113% 2011 61 28% 79% 2013 65 31% 30% June 2020 ~64 ? ?

  • Marketcap to GDP is close to 60% and reflects good value. In the past , similar valuations

were followed by good returns over next 3 years

  • Significant correction in Indian equities led by global selloff in equities and FPI outflows from India. March 20

saw highest ever monthly FPI outflow of US$ 8.4bn

  • In the past, periods of heavy FPI outflows were followed by periods of sizeable inflows
  • Historically, sharp corrections in Indian markets triggered by global events were followed by good returns over

medium to long term Past performance may or may not sustain in future. Returns are neither assured nor guaranteed.

Source: Kotak Insti Equities, Bloomberg

Refer Disclaimer on Slide 23

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FPIs selling, will the trend reverse?

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Source – Edelweiss; Maximum outflow on a 90 days rolling period

FPI Flows Rs crs Year 90 days period ending Outflows * next 360 days FPI outflows as % of India total Market Cap % NIFTY Return next 360 days 2006 11-Aug-06

  • 4,758

95,307

  • 0.2%

33% 2008 29-Oct-08

  • 30,428

1,11,664

  • 1.1%

85% 2011 13-Dec-11

  • 12,680

2,00,042

  • 0.2%

23% 2013 01-Oct-13

  • 6,938

1,71,914

  • 0.1%

38% 2015 18-Dec-15

  • 30,179

73,552

  • 0.3%

5% 2016 29-Feb-16

  • 26,497

93,963

  • 0.3%

28% 2017 08-Feb-17

  • 30,414

44,457

  • 0.3%

23% 2018 09-Nov-18

  • 38,872

68,564

  • 0.3%

13% 2020 05-May-20

  • 50,000

??

  • 0.4%

29.3 (0.5) 24.5 20.0 16.2 3.3 2.9 8.0 (4.6) 14.2 (4.3) (10.0) (5.0)

  • 5.0

10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 CY10CY11CY12CY13CY14CY15CY16CY17CY18CY19CY20 upto May

FPI flows USD bn

  • During the current COVID crisis, FPIs have sold more than Rs.50,000 crs as on 5-May-2020 on a 90 day rolling basis.
  • In the past, periods of major FPI selling, were followed by periods of sizeable FPI inflows

Refer Disclaimer on Slide 23

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SLIDE 7

Equity Markets Summary : Opportunity in adversity

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  • Significant impact on corporate profits in FY21 likely; however,

minimal impact expected on intrinsic values of most businesses.

  • Indian equity markets in aggregate are trading at attractive valuations;
  • Marketcap to GDP is

~64% and reflects good value. In the past , such levels were followed by good returns over next 3 years

  • The current Price to Book Value of the markets is comparable to earlier crisis such as GFC, IT Bubble and Asian

Crisis.

  • Historically, sharp corrections in Indian markets triggered by global events were followed by good returns over medium to

long term.

  • 10 year NIFTY returns are at 5% CAGR currently, this has happened after 15 years. Historically NIFTY returns below 5%

CAGR for a 10 year period have been followed by good returns over next 3, 5 and 10 years

  • Significant increase in Covid-19 cases in India & across the world, sharp rise in oil prices, sharp escalation in border dispute

with China, etc. are key risks in near term

Life is a cycle, always in motion, if good times have moved on so will times of trouble

Past performance may or may not sustain in future. Returns are neither assured nor guaranteed. Refer Disclaimer on Slide 23

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HDFC Capital Builder Value Fund

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Investment strategy of this fund would be to focus on :

  • Companies trading below intrinsic value, as measured by potential earnings or asset

values, and/or future cash flow growth

  • Companies in turnaround phase – Good businesses that have gone through a temporary

difficult period and de-rated but are poised for turnaround in profitability

  • Companies trading below their historical average multiples

Provided that the fund shall invest at least 50% of the portfolio in companies which are trading at multiples lower than Median P/E (Price/Earnings) or Median P/B (Price/Book Value)

  • f NIFTY 500 Index.

What is definition of Value for this Fund ?

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  • Diversified multi-cap strategy with a value bias
  • Fund is managed true-to-mandate and invests at least 50% of the portfolio in companies

which are trading at multiples lower than Median P/E (Price/Earnings) or Median P/B (Price/Book Value) of NIFTY 500 Index.

  • Emphasis on investing in undervalued stocks with a reasonable margin of safety
  • Investors with long term horizon can benefit not only from earnings growth but also re-

rating of multiples

  • Actively managed diversified equity portfolio which invests across sectors without a

market cap bias.

Why Invest in HDFC Capital Builder Value Fund ?

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HDFC Mutual Fund/AMC is not guaranteeing returns on investments made in this scheme. The current investment strategy is subject to change depending on the market conditions.

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SLIDE 11

Investment Approach

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HDFC Mutual Fund/AMC is not guaranteeing returns on investments made in this scheme. The current investment strategy is subject to change depending on the market conditions.

  • Emphasis on undervalued stocks
  • Preference for companies
  • (a) trading below intrinsic value
  • (b) In turnaround phase
  • (c) trading below historical average multiples

Stock Selection

  • Active Overweight/Underweight vs benchmark

based on top down investment calls

Sector Allocation

  • Investments across Market Capitalization range

No Capitalization Bias

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SLIDE 12

Stock selection

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  • At the time of stock selection there is a preference for companies trading below intrinsic

value, companies trading blow historical average multiples and companies in turnaround phase.

  • As of June’20, 79% of the portfolio is in preferred category as follows :

Particulars % of Net Assets (Jun’20) Average TTM P/E Average TTM P/B Average EPS Growth (Estimated) FY20-22E CAGR % Average ROE (FY20) % Description of some companies in

  • ur portfolio

Companies trading below intrinsic value (Absolute Value) 31% 13.7 2.4 2% 18.3% Largest Utility Co. in India, Largest Tobacco Co. in India, Large Tech Co.in India Companies below historical average multiples (Relative Value) 29% 21.8 3.2 16% 14.9% Largest Private sector bank in India, Large Corporate Focused private sector bank, Largest Auto Co. in India Companies in Turnaround phase 19% 52.1 5.5 43% 12.2% Second Largest Telecom Co. in India, Large Corporate focused Private Bank, Largest Healthcare player in India. Source – Bloomberg, Ratios /Growth estimates as of 6th July 2020, TTM – Trailing 12 months, P/E-Price/Earnings, P/B –Price/Book Value, EPS – Earnings per share ROE – Return on Equity computed for Fiscal Year ended 31st March 20. The above is purely as per our internal analysis. The current investment strategy is subject to change depending on the market conditions. Refer disclaimers on Slide 23. Stocks/Sectors referred herein are illustrative and not recommended by HDFC Mutual Fund / AMC. The Fund may or may not have any present or future positions in these stocks/ sectors. The data/statistics are given on the basis of information which is already available in publicly accessible media. The same should not be construed as any research report/research recommendation to buy or sell any security covered under the respective sector/s. HDFC Mutual Fund/AMC is not guaranteeing returns on any investments.

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Sector Allocation

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  • The Scheme also uses sector allocation and takes top down investment calls.
  • The Scheme is positioned to benefit from sectors which are beneficiaries of accelerated adoption of

technology (IT and Telecom) ; higher healthcare spends (Healthcare), government capex on infra and Defence (Industrials) and lower interest rate cycle (Utilities)

  • The fund is underweight Financials due to asset quality concerns and consumer staples due to

expensive valuations

  • Key overweight/(underweights) –OW /(UW) are as under

Sectors Scheme Weight % Benchmark Weight % OW/ (UW) % Jun’20 P/E Jun’20 P/B

Industrials 9.6 5.9 3.7 21.5 2.4 Communication Services 6.5 3.5 3.0 NA 3.3 Health Care 7.7 6.3 1.4 37.4 3.3 Information Technology 12.1 10.9 1.2 18 4.3 Utilities 3.6 3.2 0.4 10.6 1.2 Energy 11.6 11.2 0.4 18.7 1.9 Real Estate

  • 0.6

(0.6) 36.8 1.6 Materials 7.8 8.6 0.8) 17 1.7 Financials 27.7 30.5 (2.7) 20.6 1.9 Consumer Discretionary 4.5 8.2 (3.7) 46.5 2.6 Consumer Staples 6.8 11.2 (4.4) 36.7 7.6

As of 30th June 20. Source: Bloomberg, Stocks/sectors referred above are illustrative and are not recommended by HDFC Mutual Fund/AMC. The Fund may or may not have any present or future positions in these stocks/sectors. The above statements / analysis should not be construed as an investment advice or a research report or a recommendation to buy or sell any security covered under the respective sector/s .The same has been prepared on the basis of information which is already available in publicly accessible media.

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Large/Mid/Small Cap break-up

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As of 30th June 2020, Source :MFI Explorer

  • The Scheme invests across market capitalization
  • At present, the scheme has a large cap bias (~75% of Net Assets)
  • Market Cap Bias is an outcome of valuations and bottom up stock selection

75 9 14 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Large Cap Mid Cap Small Cap

% of Net Assets

Market Cap Break-up

Large Cap Mid Cap Small Cap

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SLIDE 15

Portfolio Characteristics

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Source :Bloomberg $ As of 7th July 2020

Characteristics Scheme NIFTY 500 Return on Equity (ROE) FY20 12.7% 9.4% Trailing 12 Month - Price to Earnings Ratio (P/E) $ 27.6 27.2 Trailing 12 Month - Price to Book Value Ratio (P/B) $ 2.1 2.4

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Portfolio Statistics (As of June 30, 2020)

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** Risk Free Rate 3.89% (Source FIMMDA, MIBOR) For complete portfolio details please visit www.hdfcfund.com

Particulars % To Net Assets Top 10 Equity And Equity Related Holdings 51.58% Total Equity & Equity Related Holdings 97.95% Cash, Cash Equivalents And Net Current Assets 2.05% Assets Under Management (Rs. In Crore) 3,595 Standard Deviation** 6.573% Beta** 1.036

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Top 10 Holdings (As of June 30, 2020)

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Particulars GICS Sector % To Net Assets HDFC Bank Ltd. Financials 9.27 Reliance Industries Ltd. Energy 8.36 ICICI Bank Ltd. Financials 7.12 Infosys Limited Information Technology 6.18 ITC Ltd. Consumer Staples 5.32 Bharti Airtel Ltd. Communication Services 4.25 Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited Financials 3.11 Axis Bank Ltd. Financials 2.83 Aurobindo Pharma Ltd. Health Care 2.82 NTPC Limited Utilities 2.32

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Fund Suitability

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The scheme is suitable for investors who

  • Intend to invest in undervalued companies.
  • Would like to invest in a diversified portfolio with a long term horizon.
  • Want twin benefit of earnings growth as well as re-rating of valuation multiples
  • Are looking for a sound and disciplined approach to investing in volatile times.
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Scheme Facts

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Type of Scheme An open ended equity scheme following a value investment strategy Inception Date (Date of allotment) February 01, 1994 Investment Objective To achieve capital appreciation/ income in the long term by primarily investing in undervalued stocks Fund Manager $ Mr Amit Ganatra Plans Direct Plan Regular Plan Sub-Options Under Each Plan: Growth & Dividend. The Dividend Option offers Dividend Payout and Reinvestment facility. Minimum Application Amount (Under Each Plan/Option) Purchase: Rs. 5,000 and any amount thereafter Additional Purchase: Rs. 1,000 and any amount thereafter Load Structure Entry Load:

  • Not Applicable. Upfront commission shall be paid directly by the investor to the ARN Holder (AMFI

registered Distributor) based on the investors’ assessment of various factors including the service rendered by the ARN Holder. Exit Load:

  • In respect of each purchase / switch-in of Units, an Exit Load of 1.00% is payable if Units are

redeemed / switched-out within 1 year from the date of allotment.

  • No Exit Load is payable if Units are redeemed / switched-out after 1 year from the date of

allotment. In respect of Systematic Transactions such as SIP, Flex SIP, GSIP, STP, Flex STP, Swing STP, Flex index, etc

  • Exit Load, if any, prevailing on the date of registration / enrolment shall be levied. For further details on

load structure, please refer to the Scheme Information Document/Key information memorandum of the Scheme. Benchmark Index NIFTY 500

For further details, refer Scheme Information Document and Key Information Memorandum and addenda thereto available on www.hdfcfund.com and at Investor Service Centres of HDFC Mutual Fund. $ Dedicated fund manager for overseas investments Mr. Chirag Dagli

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Asset Allocation Pattern

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For further details, refer Scheme Information Document and Key Information Memorandum and addenda thereto available on www.hdfcfund.com and at Investor Service Centres of HDFC Mutual Fund. $ Dedicated fund manager for overseas investments Mr. Chirag Dagli

Under normal circumstances, the asset allocation (% of net assets) of the Scheme’s portfolio will be as follows. Types of Instruments Normal Allocation (%) Risk Profile Equity and Equity related instruments 65-100 High Debt Securities (including securitised debt) and money market instruments 0-35 Low to Medium Units issued by REITs and InvITs 0-10 Medium to High Non-convertible preference shares 0-10 Low to Medium The Scheme may invest in the schemes of Mutual Funds in accordance with the applicable extant SEBI (Mutual Funds) Regulations as amended from time to time. The Scheme may invest up to 35% of its net assets in foreign securities. The Scheme may invest up to 100% of its net assets in Derivatives.

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Scheme Performance Summary – HDFC Capital Builder Value Fund

Value of Rs 10,000 invested Scheme Returns (%) Benchmark Returns (%) Additional Benchmark Returns (%) Scheme Benchmark (Rs) Additional Benchmark (Rs) Last 1 Year

  • 18.49
  • 11.13
  • 11.51

8,151 8,887 8,849 Last 3 Years

  • 2.14

1.76 3.95 9,371 10,536 11,233 Last 5 Years 3.57 5.45 5.55 11,920 13,041 13,104 Since Inception 12.73 NA 9.56 237,092 NA 111,657 The above scheme has been managed by Amit Ganatra, the fund manager since May 21, 2020 The performance of the Scheme is benchmarked to the Total Return Index (TRI) Variant of the Indices. Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future. The above returns are of Regular Plan – Growth Option. Returns greater than 1 year period are compounded annualized (CAGR). Load is not taken into consideration for computation of performance. Different Plans

  • viz. Regular Plan and Direct Plan have a different expense structure. The expenses of the Direct Plan under the Scheme will be lower to the

extent of the distribution expenses / commission charged in the Regular Plan. Returns as on 30th June 2020. 21

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Performance Summary of other Scheme(s) managed by the Fund Manager

Scheme Managing scheme since Returns (%) 1 year 3 year 5 year CAGR (in %) CAGR (in %) Amit Ganatra manages total 3 schemes HDFC DYNAMIC PE RATIO FUND OF FUNDS # 20-May-20

  • 4.84

2.00 5.79 NIFTY 50 Hybrid Composite Debt 65:35 Index

  • 2.04

6.23 7.30 HDFC Multi Asset Fund ## 12-Jun-20

  • 0.63

2.87 5.32 90% NIFTY 50 Hybrid Composite Debt 65:35 Index + 10% Domestic Price of Gold 1.85 7.64 7.99

Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future. The performance of the Scheme is benchmarked to the Total Return Index (TRI) Variant of the Indices. The above returns are of Regular Plan - Growth Option. Load is not taken into consideration for computation of performance. # The scheme is co managed by Amit Ganatra (Equities) and Anil Bamboli (Debt). ## The Scheme is co managed by Amit Ganatra (Equities), Anil Bamboli (Debt) and Krishan Daga (Gold related assets). Returns as on 30th June 2020. Different Plans viz. Regular Plan and Direct Plan have a different expense structure. The expenses of the Direct Plan under the Scheme will be lower to the extent of the distribution expenses/ commission charged in the Regular Plan. On account of difference in the type of the Scheme, asset allocation, investment strategy, inception dates, the performance of these schemes is strictly not comparable. 22

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Disclaimer

The presentation dated 22nd July 2020 has been prepared by HDFC Asset Management Company Limited (HDFC AMC) based on internal data, publicly available information and other sources believed to be reliable. Any calculations made are approximations, meant as guidelines only, which you must confirm before relying

  • n them. The information given is for general purposes only. Past performance may or may not be sustained

in future. The statements are given in summary form and do not purport to be complete. The views / information provided do not have regard to specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this information. The information/ data herein are not investment advice and alone are not sufficient and should not be used for the development or implementation of an investment strategy. The statements contained herein are based on our current views and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. Stocks/Sectors referred herein are illustrative and not recommended by HDFC Mutual Fund / AMC. The Fund may or may not have any present or future positions in these sectors. HDFC Mutual Fund/AMC is not guaranteeing returns on any

  • investments. The data/statistics are given on the basis of information which is already available in publicly

accessible media to explain general market trends in the securities market. The same should not be construed as any research report/research recommendation to buy or sell any security covered under the respective sector/s. Neither the AMC and HDFC Mutual Fund nor any person connected with them, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipient(s) before acting on any information herein should make his/her/their own investigation and seek appropriate professional advice and shall alone be fully responsible / liable for any decision taken on the basis of information contained herein.

Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.

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Thank You

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