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HALF YEAR RESULTS TO SEPT 2015
26th November 2015
HALF YEAR RESULTS TO SEPT 2015 26 th November 2015 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
HALF YEAR RESULTS TO SEPT 2015 26 th November 2015 www.londonmetric.com AGENDA Highlights Strategy & Market Financial Investment Property Outlook Questions 2 HIGHLIGHTS Andrew Jones Financial
26th November 2015
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Andrew Jones
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Key highlights 30 Sept 2015 6 month change EPRA NAV per share 147p +5.7%¹ Reported Profit £64.3m Valuation Movement £47.2m Income Statement 30 Sept 2015 12 month change EPRA Earnings £23.4m +12% EPRA Earnings per share 3.75p +12% Interim Dividend per share 3.50p
8.2%
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Portfolio Valuation
March 2015: £1,400m
Core portfolio
capital return
ERV Growth
like for like
Income Growth
like for like
EPRA NIY1
22 bps yield movement
Total Property Return2
IPD total return 6.8%
1. Topped up NIY 2. Commercial Portfolio
Distribution: +5.9% Retail: +3.2%
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Investment activity
in the period
Yield Arbitrage
+120bps including capital expenditure Delivered development²
adding £11.7m of rent pa
Occupancy
investment portfolio
WAULT
investment portfolio
1 Efficient Capital Allocation £120.0m disposals at NIY 5.3% £87.8m acquisitions at NIY 6.1% £59.3m development capex at 7.2% yield on cost¹ 2 Delivering Development 1.9m sq ft of development completed² 0.7m sq ft under development at 6.2% yield on cost 1.4m sq ft development pipeline at c.7.1% yield on cost 3 Growing Earnings with Future Growth Delivered £1.9m pa additional rent from 31 asset management deals Like for like income growth 2.1%; ERV growth of 2.7% Future income growth embedded in 48% of the portfolio
Andrew Jones
Evolution of consumer trends
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Online UK shoppers
double OECD average
Online sales growth
to 25% of all non food sales 2019
Next day delivery
growth year on year
Click & Collect
growing to £4.0bn by 2018
Sources: Verdict, IMRG
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Distribution the strongest sub sector of retail
Distribution take up
+25% against long term average
Distribution Availability
reflecting 8 months of take up
Retailer demand represents
Sources: Savills, Verdict
Focus on winning retailers
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Distribution Portfolio valuation: £675m Total return: +8.6% NIY: 5.0% Occupancy: 100%, WAULT: 13.9 yrs Retail Portfolio valuation: £470m Total return: +5.9% NIY: 5.9% Occupancy: 99.7%, WAULT: 12.4 yrs
Convenience Retail Retail Parks Development Distribution Residential Leisure
46% 8% 4% 28% 5% 5% 4%
£1,471m
Office
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Income
Strong and sustainable
Asset management
Grow, strengthen and lengthen income
Short-cycle development
Refurbish, redevelop and extend
Distribution Retail
Occupier led
Core Stretch1
Opportunistic Dagenham Aldi, Middlesboro Newark Odeon Wakefield Kings Lynn Kirkstall, Leeds
Martin McGann
75.8 79.7 79.7 84.3 86.8 5.3 1.9 3.3 4.6 9.1
60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 90.0 95.0 100.0
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(£m)
Development Activity
Mar 15 annualised passing rent Delivered Development Net Investment Activity Sept 15 annualised passing rent Committed Development & Pipeline Occupier transactions & New Space PPE Activity Run Rate
Pipeline Activity Delivered Activity
Warrington Bedford
Stoke Asset Mgmt
Wakefield
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30 Sept 2015 30 Sept 2014 Change Reported Profit £64.3m £69.7m Revaluation Surplus £47.2m £52.3m Net rental income £31.4m £28.3m Share of joint venture income £3.3m £5.6m Management fees £1.1m £1.0m Administrative costs
(EPRA cost ratio 17%)
£(6.6)m £(6.5)m Finance costs £(5.8)m £(7.5)m EPRA earnings £23.4m £20.9m +12% EPRA EPS 3.75p 3.35p +12% DPS 3.50p 3.50p
107% 96% +11bps
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30 Sept 2015 31 Mar 2015 Property portfolio £1,261.8m £1,164.1m Joint ventures £134.8m £148.4m Cash £21.9m £50.6m Bank debt (£551.2m) (£465.5m) Other net liabilities £33.8m (£27.4m) Net Assets £901.1m £870.2m EPRA Adjustments £13.8m £7.0m EPRA Net assets £914.9m £877.2m EPRA NAV per share 147p 141p
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NAV per share (p)
140.6 138.6 138.6 138.8 138.8 139.0 146.6 2.0 3.7 3.5 0.2 7.6
120.0 125.0 130.0 135.0 140.0 145.0 150.0 155.0 160.0
EPRA NAV Mar-15 Special Dividend Adjusted EPRA Earnings Revaluation EPRA NAV Sept-15 Dividend Other
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30 Sept 2015 31 Mar 2015 30 Sept 2014 Gross Debt £629m £563m £573m Undrawn facilities £56.3m¹ £83.4m £23.2m Loan to Value 37% 36% 38% Weighted average cost of finance 3.5% 3.7% 3.7% Weighted average maturity 6.1 years 4.2 years 3.6 years Hedging 95% 80% 71%
Valentine Beresford
¹ LM Share ² Includes PPE Activity: Two disposals at Cannock, & Enfield; One acquisition at Reading. Excludes conditional Omega South forward funding announced on 26 Nov 2015.
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H1 2015/16 incl PPE £m2 H1 2015/16 £m¹ NIY WAULT Acquisitions £116.6m £87.8m 6.1% 13.1 yrs Retail £15.8m £15.8m 5.9% 18.7 Distribution £100.8m £72.0m 6.3% 11.9 Disposals £136.3m £120.0m 5.3% 12.4 yrs Retail £65.0m £50.1m 5.7% 10.5 Distribution £62.2m £62.2m 5.4% 14.6 Non Core (Residential) £9.1m £7.7m 1.9%
£252.9m £207.8m + 80 bps +0.7 yrs
Dispose assets that have delivered to plan
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Harlow £37.2m 4.7% NIY Sold Apr 2015 Wellingborough Milton Keynes DFS, Enfield Southampton £29.2m 5.8% NIY Sold Aug 2015 £27.2m 5.7% NIY Sold Sept 2015 £24.5m 6.6% NIY Sold Oct 2015 (PPE) £16.2m 5.8% NIY Sold Aug 2015
Three disposals - £62.2m, NIY 5.4% Fully executed asset management plan IRR2 of 32% 1 further sale in legals Five disposals - £65.0m¹, NIY 5.9% Asset management plans completed 15 leasing initiatives undertaken IRR2 of 29% Four further sales in legals
Retail Sales Distribution Sales
¹ Including post period end 2 Geared IRR
£7.5m at Share £18.6m at Share
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Speculative funding agreed on 356,000 sq ft grade A development Omega South top 5 UK distribution location Supply / Demand favourable for speculative development
Attractive anticipated returns
Speculative Development
New distribution unit
Capital expenditure
Target rent
Attractive YOC
Aligning our portfolio to omni channel retailing
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Building best in class portfolio Leveraging our retail expertise and relationships - 75% let to retailers 99% of portfolio acquired since merger at NIY 6.4% £130m of capex on completed developments – 7.1% yield on cost £145m of committed development and pipeline capex £766 million1 across 23 assets
Mark Stirling
Delivered
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Delivered
94% distribution
Total Rent
per annum
Yield on Cost
blended
Warrington Islip
Omega South – 690,000 sq ft £3.8m pa rent 15 year lease BREEAM Very Good Islip – 1.1m sq ft £5.3m pa rent 25 year lease BREEAM Very Good
Leeds
Kirkstall – 120,000 sq ft £2.6m pa rent¹ 13.8 years average lease BREEAM Very Good
1. Rent based on income when fully let. Currently 85% let.
Under construction
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Wakefield
Wakefield – 524,000 sq ft distribution Yield on Cost 6.3% £2.5m pa rent with RPI uplifts, 15 yr lease £33m capital expenditure to complete Completion in Autumn 2016
Under construction
currently
Total Rent / uplift
per annum
Yield on Cost
blended
Capital Expenditure to complete
during 2016
Retail Activity
218,000 sq ft of retail development Yield on Cost 6.0% £2.8m pa rent £37m capital expenditure to complete Completion by Nov 2016
M62
Pipeline
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700,000 sq ft Rent: £4.4m Yield on cost c.7.3% Completion estimated 2017/18
Bedford Stoke
Pipeline
potential development
Total Rent
per annum subject to letting
Yield on Cost
blended
Capital Expenditure
300,000 sq ft Rent: £1.4m Yield on cost c.6.8% Completion estimated 2017
Warrington
356,000 sq ft Rent: £2.2m Yield on cost c.7.0% Completion estimated end 2016
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No. Area (000 Sq Ft) % above ERV LFL rental growth WAULT (Years) New Lettings 15 130 4.7% 1.9% 13.7 Rent Reviews 16 1,007 5.4% 0.2%
31 1,137 5.2% 2.1%
Rent reviews settled at 1.5% ahead of previous passing rent Asset management activity delivered 10.1% income return on capital expenditure¹ 119,000 sq ft leasing activity in legals
¹ £17.6m asset management capital expenditure
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Total Return Income Return Capital Return HY to Sept 15 LMP IPD LMP IPD LMP IPD Distribution 8.6 8.0 2.6 2.8 5.9 5.1 Retail 5.9 4.4 2.7 2.5 3.2 1.9 Core Portfolio 7.5
7.0 6.8 2.7 2.4 4.2 4.4
1.
LMP Commercial Property Portfolio
Andrew Jones
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1 Sector Focus
Sector focus reflects modern day shopping behaviour
2 Income
Focus on income growth
3 Capital
Leverage strong occupier knowledge & relationships
4 Total Returns
Deliver total shareholder returns
34 Revaluation Rent Fixed Area
100%
Valuation
LMP Share
surplus Occupancy NIY WAULT (years) roll uplifts Average rent (£ psf) As at 30-Sept-15 (m sq ft) (£m) (£m) (%) (%) (%) expiry break (£m) (%) Existing Retail – wholly owned 1.1 265.1 1.8 0.7 99.8 6.2 10.7 9.4 17.5 23.6 16.50 Retail - convenience 0.2 61.7 1.2 1.9 100.0 5.8 18.1 18.0 3.8 31.4 17.20 Retail - MIPP JV 0.9 103.7
99.1 6.0 12.7 12.3 6.6 20.9 14.30 Retail - DFS JV 0.3 39.6 0.4 0.9 100.0 7.5 14.5 14.5 3.1 0.0 32.70 Retail Subtotal 2.5 470.1 3.3 0.7 99.7 5.9 12.4 11.6 31.0 24.7 16.90 Distribution 6.9 675.0 28.3 5.3 100.0 5.0 13.9 13.1 36.0 60.0 5.40 Leisure 0.3 78.5 0.8 1.0 100.0 6.1 21.9 21.9 5.0 100.0 15.60 Office 0.2 77.4 1.9 2.6 100.0 6.1 7.8 7.8 4.9 60.9 21.30 Investment portfolio 9.9 1,301.0 34.3 3.0 99.9 5.5 13.4 12.7 76.9 48.4 8.50 Residential
n/a
Developments 1.7 108.7 13.1 6.4 n/a
Total 11.6 1,471.4 47.2 3.3 n/a
T enant Rent (£m pa) % of total Rent Market cap (£m)3 9.3 10.9 27,6006 6.2 7.3 5,310 4.7 5.5 710 4.7 5.5 8,520 4.6 5.4 N/A 4.1 4.7 8305 3.8 4.4 N/A 3.6 4.2 8,1404 3.3 3.8 4,820 3.1 3.6 N/A T
47.4 55.3% Other commercial 38.3 44.7% Residential 1.0 T
86.7
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(1) Investment portfolio as at 30 Sept 2015 (2) Gross rental income based on annualised rents (3) Market capitalisation as at 10 Nov 2015 (4) Market capitalisation of parent Kingfisher (5) Market capitalisation of parent Home Retail Group (6) Market capitalisation of parent Associated British Food
Income exposure to retailers
Income exposure to PLCs
Within next 5 years
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Name Principal occupiers Ownership interest (%) Annualised net rent (£m) Let by income (%) Weighted average unexpired lease term (years) Islip Distribution Primark 100% 5.3 100% 25.0 Newark Distribution Dixons Carphone 100% 3.9 100% 17.8 Thrapston Distribution Primark 100% 4.0 100% 17.0 Marlow Office Allergan, Dunn & Bradstreet 100% 4.9 100% 7.8 Bedford Distribution Argos 100% 3.8 100% 7.2 Dagenham Distribution Eddie Stobart 100% 3.1 100% 15.8 Daventry Distribution Royal Mail 100% 2.5 100% 7.9 Warrington Distribution The Hut Group 100% 3.8 100% 15.0 Sheffield Distribution Marks & Spencer 100% 2.6 100% 8.2 Kirkstall Bridge Shopping Park, Leeds M&S, JD Sports, HomeBargains 100% 2.61 85%2 13.8
1 Once fully let 2 Including deals currently in legals
Growing portfolio responding to retailer expansion requirements
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£70 million portfolio of 11 assets Nine assets totalling £61.7 million Plus two assets in development totalling £7.9 million (YOC 5.6%) WAULT of 18.1 years Expect to grow to at least £100 million portfolio across 14 assets £15m costs to complete on developments1 Advanced discussions on 3 further assets totalling c£20 million
1 Includes £8.3 million extension at Loughborough and £7.0 million in total for Ferndown and Liverpool
Consumer habits have changed supported by online and more frequent top up shops
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Share of online retail sales to grow to 15.7% by 2019 from 7.1% in 2009 Online sales grown consistently by c.£3bn p.a. since 2005 – forecast to grow at same rate Online growth is stable in absolute terms 26 million households received c. 1 billion parcels in 2014 Next day delivery is up 18% year on year
Internet Only Convenience
Convenience food market share grown from 14.6% to 17.8% in last 5 years Sector expected to grow 5% p.a., significantly ahead of all retail sales growth forecasts New entrants (Aldi, Lidl, B&M etc) are taking sizeable market share Aldi & Lidl account for c.10% of UK grocery market Marks & Spencer Simply Food to grow stores by 250
Omni Channel
Annual online growth for omni channel retailers
Internet sales make up c.30% of established omni channel retailers (eg Dixons Carphone = 29%; John Lewis = 25%; Argos = 44%) Established omni channel retailers seeing store sales fall with internet sales rising (eg John Lewis) The need for physical remains – click & collect and internal showrooming (eg 32% of all Argos sales & 54% of John Lewis
Other retailers re-positioning their portfolio (eg Mothercare total UK sales broadly static, but UK store space reduced 4.5% (32 stores) & online now 30%)
Sources: Javelin, IMRG, Verdict, Experian, Mintel, Company disclosures
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4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% Retail - good secondary RW - prime restricted solus RW - prime restricted RP RW - secondary Distribution - prime Industrial - good secondary
Peak yields Trough yields Mean yields Current yields 1 StdDev
Source: CBRE, Nov 2015 – yields assume rack rented 15 year leases let to strong covenants with open market rent reviews
Acquisitions
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Price LMP share NIY WAULT H1 Sector assets Date (£m) (£m) (%) to expiry to 1st break Basildon Distribution 1 Apr-15 3.5 3.5 6.5 4.6 4.6 Cowes Retail 1 Apr-15 3.0 3.0 5.6 20.0 20.0 Haslemere Retail 1 May-15 4.8 4.8 5.3 20.0 20.0 Penrith Retail 1 May-15 4.7 4.7 6.0 20.0 20.0 South Elmsall Distribution 1 Jun-15 29.0 29.0 6.3 8.6 8.6 Speke Retail 1 Jun-15 6.9 3.4 6.8 15.0 15.0 Wakefield Distribution 1 Jun-15 39.4 39.4 6.3 15.0 15.0 TOTAL 7 91.3 87.8 6.1 13.1 13.1
Disposals
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Disposals
Price LMP share NIY WAULT H1 Sector assets Date (£m) (£m) (%) to expiry to 1st break Lichfield Retail 1 Apr-15 13.3 6.6 5.5 11.5 11.0 Brackmills Distribution 1 Apr-15 14.4 14.4 5.5 8.9 8.9 Harlow Distribution 1 Apr-15 37.2 18.6 4.7 24.3 24.3 Wellingborough Distribution 1 Aug-15 29.2 29.2 5.8 12.3 12.3 Mountbatten, Southampton Retail 1 Aug-15 16.2 16.2 5.8 12.6 11 Westcroft, Milton Keynes Retail 1 Sep-15 27.2 27.2 5.7 8.9 8.9 Residential Residential 15 Various 17.0 7.8 1.9
21 154.5 120.0 5.3 12.4 12.1
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Post Period End
Price LMP share NIY WAULT Acquisitions Sector assets Date (£m) (£m) (%) to expiry to 1st break Reading Distribution 1 Nov-2015 28.8 28.8 5.8 10.0 10.0 Sub-T
1 28.8 28.8 5.8 10.0 10.0 Disposals Cannock Retail 1 Oct-2015 7.5 7.5 6.2 14.8 14.8 Enfield Retail 1 Oct-2015 24.5 7.5 6.6 15.0 15.0 Moore House Residential 2
1.3
4 35.4 16.3 6.4 14.9 14.9 T
5 64.2 45.1
43 Location Sector Sq ft % Pre Let Comment PC date Rent roll / uplift YOC1
Valu’n yield (£m) (%) (%) Committed Wakefield Distrib 524,000 100% Let to Poundworld for 15 years Oct-16 2.5 6.3 5.7 Kings Lynn Retail 72,000 100% Lettings signed with DFS, Tapi, B&M, Next & Poundland Oct-16 0.4 5.7 5.8 Liverpool Retail 29,000 100% Pre let to Aldi and Marks & Spencer Apr-16 0.5 5.8 5.1 Leicester Retail 29,000 100% Pre-let to Smyths Toys and Home Bargains Jul-16 0.4 7.4 5.8 Hove Retail 28,000 100% New lease to DSG on an enlarged store Oct-16 0.3 11.1 5.6 Tonbridge Retail 18,000 100% Re-size of Halfords, new lease to M&S Nov-16 0.1 3.8 5.3 Coventry Retail 18,000 100% New build unit for Aldi Jul-16 0.3 7.3 5.8 Loughborough Retail 13,000 100% Food store extension to 54,000 sq ft By Dec-16 0.5 5.1 4.6 Ferndown Retail 11,000 100% New 20 year lease to Marks & Spencer Apr-16 0.3 5.3 4.5 Total committed 742,000 100% 5.3 6.2 5.3 Conditional Bedford Distrib 700,000
Warrington Distrib 356,000
Stoke Distrib 300,000
(1) Yield on cost (2) Practical completion
44 6.9 5.0 18.1 9.9 17.6 5.9 5.6 7.3 25.8 9.2 20.0 8.6 3.0 4.6 13.4 9.3 16.6 6.8
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 FY 2013 HY 2014 FY 2014 HY 2015 FY 2015 HY 2016 LMP Retail LMP Distribution IPD
Significant outperformance of core IPD:
Distribution: 1.51x Retail: 1.22x
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Asset Management 26% Development 10% Distribution market yield movement 59% Retail market yield movement 5% £47.2m Valuation uplift
30 September 2015 31 March 2015 (£m) Group JV T
T
Property portfolio 1,261.8 209.6 1,471.4 1,400.4 Cash 21.9 7.6 29.5 63.6 Bank debt (551.2) (77.8) (629.0) (563.0) Other net liabilities 33.8 (4.6) 29.2 (30.8) Net assets 766.3 134.8 901.1 870.2 EPRA adjustments 13.8 7.0 EPRA net assets 914.9 877.2 EPRA NAV per share (p) 146.6p 140.6p
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30 September 2015 30 September 2014 (£m) Group JV T
T
Reported profit 61.1 3.2 64.3 69.7 Net rental income 31.4 5.5 36.9 35.9 Management fees 1.1 (0.5) 0.6 0.6 Administrative costs (6.6) (0.1) (6.7) (6.6) Net finance costs (5.8) (1.6) (7.4) (9.0) EPRA Earnings 20.1 3.3 23.4 20.9 Valuation Movement 47.0 0.2 47.2 52.3 Exceptional items1 (6.0) (0.3) (6.3) (3.5)
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(1) Includes derivative movements, profit/(loss) on sales, early closure costs of debt and hedging and deferred tax
Facility Drawn Maturity Asset(s) Sector Lender (£m) (£m) (years) Expiry Wholly-owned portfolio Distribution term loan Distribution Helaba 196.2 196.2 6.2 28-Nov-21 Unsecured1 All Syndicate 443.8 355.0 6.5 1-Apr-22 T
640.0 551.2 6.4 JV portfolio (LondonMetric at share) Moore House (40%) Residential RBS 10.9 10.9 0.9 28-Aug-16 DFS JV (30.5%) Retail M&G 21.9 21.9 3.8 23-Jul-19 MIPP JV (50%) Retail Deutsche Pfandbriefbank 56.3 45.0 4.3 22-Jan-20 T
89.1 77.8 3.7 T
729.1 629.0 6.1
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(1) Includes £43.8m accordion facility agreed post period end