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gw gws Paper prepared for the final WIOD Conference Groningen, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jul 31, 2023 307 likes •569 views

Prospects and Drivers of Future European Resource Requirements Selected Findings of a Multi-National Macroeconomic Simulation Study Mark Meyer, Martin Distelkamp and Bernd Meyer gw gws Paper prepared for the final WIOD Conference Groningen,

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Prospects and Drivers of Future European Resource Requirements

Selected Findings of a Multi-National Macroeconomic Simulation Study Mark Meyer, Martin Distelkamp and Bernd Meyer Paper prepared for the final WIOD Conference Groningen, April 2012

This paper summarises selected findings of recent work on behalf of DG Environment at the European Commission. The authors acknowledge financial support from the project „Macroeconomic modelling of sustainable development and the links between the economy and the environment“ (MACMOD, ENV.F.1/ETU/2010/0033) in this regard. Nevertheless, all views expressed in this paper are the sole responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as representing those of the European Commission. Interested readers find the full project report at: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/enveco/studies_modelling/pdf/report_macroeconomic.pdf

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Mark Meyer: Prospects and Drivers of Future European Resource Requirements (Paper prepared for the final WIOD conference, Groningen, April 2012) 2

  • 1. Introductory annotations – Material Flow Analysis
  • 2. Multi-country ex ante simulation studies –

a condensed view on the GINFORS approach

  • 3. Selected findings of a GINFORS projection:

Prospects of European Resource Requirements

  • 4. Supplementary notes and outlook on future

research

Outlook

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3

  • 1. Introductory annotations
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Mark Meyer: Prospects and Drivers of Future European Resource Requirements (Paper prepared for the final WIOD conference, Groningen, April 2012) 4

Introductory annotations – basic intention

  • Political agenda
  • European Commission: Roadmap for a resource-efficient Europe
  • Germany: Resource efficiency program “ProgRess”
  • …
  • Related research projects
  • MOSUS (http://www.mosus.net)
  • pETRE (http://www.petre.org.uk/)
  • PolRess (http://www.ressourcenpolitik.de/)
  • MaRess (http://ressourcen.wupperinst.org/)

Needs for (further) developments of ex ante simulation models of prospective resource efficiency trajectories

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Mark Meyer: Prospects and Drivers of Future European Resource Requirements (Paper prepared for the final WIOD conference, Groningen, April 2012) 5

Introductory annotations – scope of the paper

Thematic Focus

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Mark Meyer: Prospects and Drivers of Future European Resource Requirements (Paper prepared for the final WIOD conference, Groningen, April 2012) 6

Introductory annotations – related research

Methodological Overviews

  • Wiedmann et al. (2011)
  • Suh (2009)
  • Wiedmann et al. (2007)

Prominent Global Historical Analyses

  • Krausmann et al. (2009)
  • Behrens et al. (2007)
  • Bringezu et al. (20049
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Mark Meyer: Prospects and Drivers of Future European Resource Requirements (Paper prepared for the final WIOD conference, Groningen, April 2012) 7

Introductory annotations – ex post analyses

Krausmann et al. (2009)

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Mark Meyer: Prospects and Drivers of Future European Resource Requirements (Paper prepared for the final WIOD conference, Groningen, April 2012) 8

Introductory annotations – ex post analyses

Krausmann et al. (2009)

  • Over the last century global resource use increased 8-fold
  • Shift from the dominance of renewable biomass towards minerals
  • Highly industrialised countries contributed most to global resource

consumption

  • No evidence that growth of global resource use is slowing down or might

eventually decline

  • Key drivers:
  • Population
  • Metabolic Rates (resources use per capita): Income, Population Density
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Mark Meyer: Prospects and Drivers of Future European Resource Requirements (Paper prepared for the final WIOD conference, Groningen, April 2012) 9

Introductory annotations – ex ante analyses

Prominent Global/Multi-National Projections

  • virtually non-existent
  • Krausmann et al. (2011):
  • Scenario Analysis: Fischer-Kowalski et al. (2010), UNEP (2011)
  • GINFORS model: Lutz and Giljum (2009)
  • EEA (2005)
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Mark Meyer: Prospects and Drivers of Future European Resource Requirements (Paper prepared for the final WIOD conference, Groningen, April 2012) 10

Introductory annotations – ex ante analyses

Scenarios for future materials use (UNEP 2011)

  • Normative approach
  • Focus: global implications of different convergence projections for

national metabolic rates until 2050

  • Scenario 1: business as usual (developing countries converge to Western

countries metabolic rate of about 16t/cap)

  • Scenario 2: moderate contraction and convergence (metabolic rates in

Western countries reduce from 16t/cap to 8t/cap)

  • Scenario 3: tough contraction and convergence (metabolic rates converge at

around 6t/cap)

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Mark Meyer: Prospects and Drivers of Future European Resource Requirements (Paper prepared for the final WIOD conference, Groningen, April 2012) 11

Introductory annotations – ex ante analyses

Scenarios for future materials use (UNEP 2011)

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Mark Meyer: Prospects and Drivers of Future European Resource Requirements (Paper prepared for the final WIOD conference, Groningen, April 2012) 12

Introductory annotations – ex ante analyses

Most recent positive approaches

  • Barker et al. (2011)
  • E3ME model
  • GINFORS model
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  • 2. A condensed view on the GINFORS approach
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Mark Meyer: Prospects and Drivers of Future European Resource Requirements (Paper prepared for the final WIOD conference, Groningen, April 2012) 14

GINFORS – model architecture

Stylised economic core

Bilateral Trade IO Model Economy IIl IO Model Economy IIl … IO Model Economy II IO Model Economy II IO Model Economy I IO Model Economy I

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Mark Meyer: Prospects and Drivers of Future European Resource Requirements (Paper prepared for the final WIOD conference, Groningen, April 2012) 15

GINFORS – model architecture

Data Source: OECD Input-Output Database

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Mark Meyer: Prospects and Drivers of Future European Resource Requirements (Paper prepared for the final WIOD conference, Groningen, April 2012) 16

GINFORS – model architecture

Main Characteristics

  • Global multisector/multicountry ex ante simulation model projecting

pressures from economic activities on the environment

  • Agents decide on imperfect markets under conditions of bounded

rationality

  • Econometric estimation of model parameters
  • Bilateral trade for 26 product groups between 53 countries
  • # integrated Input-Output models: 27 (>80% of World GDP)

Detailed technical documentations

  • Barker et al. (2011)
  • Lutz et al. (2010)
  • Lutz and Meyer (2009)
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  • 3. Selected Findings
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Mark Meyer: Prospects and Drivers of Future European Resource Requirements (Paper prepared for the final WIOD conference, Groningen, April 2012) 18

Exemplary results (all [materials] countries)

Aggregated findings

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Mark Meyer: Prospects and Drivers of Future European Resource Requirements (Paper prepared for the final WIOD conference, Groningen, April 2012) 19

Exemplary results (sums of national figures)

Sustained shifts from domestic to imported material flows

Domestic extraction used Imports Unused domestic extraction Hidden flows associated to imports

19,7% 11,1% 45,5% 23,7%

Domestic extraction used Imports Unused domestic extraction Hidden flows associated to imports Domestic extraction used Imports Unused domestic extraction Hidden flows associated to imports

19,7% 11,1% 45,5% 23,7% 14,9% 11,7% 19,0% 54,4%

2010 2030

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Mark Meyer: Prospects and Drivers of Future European Resource Requirements (Paper prepared for the final WIOD conference, Groningen, April 2012) 20

Exemplary results (sums of national figures)

Relevance of metal ores and biomass increases

2010 2030

Agriculture Fossil energy materials/carriers Wood Other Erosion Non-ferrous metals Iron Other metals and products mainly from metals Construction minerals Industrial minerals Excavation and dredging Other products mainly non-metallic mineral products Others Biomass: Metal ores: Non-metallic minerals: Agriculture Fossil energy materials/carriers Wood Other Erosion Non-ferrous metals Iron Other metals and products mainly from metals Construction minerals Industrial minerals Excavation and dredging Other products mainly non-metallic mineral products Others Biomass: Metal ores: Non-metallic minerals:

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Mark Meyer: Prospects and Drivers of Future European Resource Requirements (Paper prepared for the final WIOD conference, Groningen, April 2012) 21

Key results

Summarised findings

  • Despite European Climate Policy and rising raw material prices slight rise

in summarised EU countries’ national material requirements by an average of 0.5% per year

  • Differences among countries
  • No absolute decoupling in sight without further resource policies
  • Import share of summarised EU countries’ national material requirements

rises from 57% to 66%

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  • 4. Supplementary notes and outlook
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Mark Meyer: Prospects and Drivers of Future European Resource Requirements (Paper prepared for the final WIOD conference, Groningen, April 2012) 23

Supplementary notes and outlook

Most recent model refinements

  • Endogenisation of hidden flows / rucksacks into the GINFORS materials

projections

Needs for (further) developments

  • Methodological issues:
  • Needs for comprehensive input output databases (only 19 Member States are

currently represented by national input output submodels within GINFORS)

  • Pending model improvements with regards to material flows:
  • EU27 aggregates (accounting for intra-European trade)
  • Further country endogenisations (global material requirements)
  • Endogenisation of material intensity developments
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Prospects and Drivers of Future European Resource Requirements Selected Findings of a Multi-National Macroeconomic Simulation Study Thanks for your attention.

Gesellschaft für Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung mbH Heinrichstraße 30 Mark Meyer D - 49080 Osnabrück m.meyer [at] gws-os.de