Prospects and Drivers of Future European Resource Requirements Selected Findings of a Multi-National Macroeconomic Simulation Study Mark Meyer, Martin Distelkamp and Bernd Meyer gw gws Paper prepared for the final WIOD Conference Groningen, April 2012 This paper summarises selected findings of recent work on behalf of DG Environment at the European Commission. The authors acknowledge financial support from the project „Macroeconomic modelling of sustainable development and the links between the economy and the environment“ (MACMOD, ENV.F.1/ETU/2010/0033) in this regard. Nevertheless, all views expressed in this paper are the sole responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as representing those of the European Commission. Interested readers find the full project report at: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/enveco/studies_modelling/pdf/report_macroeconomic.pdf
gw gws Outlook 1. Introductory annotations – Material Flow Analysis 2. Multi-country ex ante simulation studies – a condensed view on the GINFORS approach 3. Selected findings of a GINFORS projection: Prospects of European Resource Requirements 4. Supplementary notes and outlook on future research Mark Meyer: Prospects and Drivers of Future European Resource Requirements 2 (Paper prepared for the final WIOD conference, Groningen, April 2012)
1. Introductory annotations 3
gws gw Introductory annotations – basic intention • Political agenda • European Commission: Roadmap for a resource-efficient Europe • Germany: Resource efficiency program “ProgRess” • … • Related research projects • MOSUS (http://www.mosus.net) • pETRE (http://www.petre.org.uk/) • PolRess (http://www.ressourcenpolitik.de/) • MaRess (http://ressourcen.wupperinst.org/) Needs for (further) developments of ex ante simulation models of prospective resource efficiency trajectories Mark Meyer: Prospects and Drivers of Future European Resource Requirements 4 (Paper prepared for the final WIOD conference, Groningen, April 2012)
gws gw Introductory annotations – scope of the paper Thematic Focus Mark Meyer: Prospects and Drivers of Future European Resource Requirements 5 (Paper prepared for the final WIOD conference, Groningen, April 2012)
gw gws Introductory annotations – related research Methodological Overviews • Wiedmann et al. (2011) • Suh (2009) • Wiedmann et al. (2007) Prominent Global Historical Analyses • Krausmann et al. (2009) • Behrens et al. (2007) • Bringezu et al. (20049 Mark Meyer: Prospects and Drivers of Future European Resource Requirements 6 (Paper prepared for the final WIOD conference, Groningen, April 2012)
gw gws Introductory annotations – ex post analyses Krausmann et al. (2009) Mark Meyer: Prospects and Drivers of Future European Resource Requirements 7 (Paper prepared for the final WIOD conference, Groningen, April 2012)
gw gws Introductory annotations – ex post analyses Krausmann et al. (2009) • Over the last century global resource use increased 8-fold • Shift from the dominance of renewable biomass towards minerals • Highly industrialised countries contributed most to global resource consumption • No evidence that growth of global resource use is slowing down or might eventually decline • Key drivers: • Population • Metabolic Rates (resources use per capita): Income, Population Density Mark Meyer: Prospects and Drivers of Future European Resource Requirements 8 (Paper prepared for the final WIOD conference, Groningen, April 2012)
gw gws Introductory annotations – ex ante analyses Prominent Global/Multi-National Projections • virtually non-existent • Krausmann et al. (2011): • Scenario Analysis: Fischer-Kowalski et al. (2010), UNEP (2011) • GINFORS model: Lutz and Giljum (2009) • EEA (2005) Mark Meyer: Prospects and Drivers of Future European Resource Requirements 9 (Paper prepared for the final WIOD conference, Groningen, April 2012)
gw gws Introductory annotations – ex ante analyses Scenarios for future materials use (UNEP 2011) • Normative approach • Focus: global implications of different convergence projections for national metabolic rates until 2050 • Scenario 1: business as usual (developing countries converge to Western countries metabolic rate of about 16t/cap) • Scenario 2: moderate contraction and convergence (metabolic rates in Western countries reduce from 16t/cap to 8t/cap) • Scenario 3: tough contraction and convergence (metabolic rates converge at around 6t/cap) Mark Meyer: Prospects and Drivers of Future European Resource Requirements 10 (Paper prepared for the final WIOD conference, Groningen, April 2012)
gw gws Introductory annotations – ex ante analyses Scenarios for future materials use (UNEP 2011) Mark Meyer: Prospects and Drivers of Future European Resource Requirements 11 (Paper prepared for the final WIOD conference, Groningen, April 2012)
gw gws Introductory annotations – ex ante analyses Most recent positive approaches • Barker et al. (2011) • E3ME model • GINFORS model Mark Meyer: Prospects and Drivers of Future European Resource Requirements 12 (Paper prepared for the final WIOD conference, Groningen, April 2012)
2. A condensed view on the GINFORS approach 13
gw gws GINFORS – model architecture Stylised economic core IO Model IO Model Economy I Economy I Bilateral IO Model IO Model … Trade Economy II Economy II IO Model IO Model Economy IIl Economy IIl Mark Meyer: Prospects and Drivers of Future European Resource Requirements 14 (Paper prepared for the final WIOD conference, Groningen, April 2012)
gw gws GINFORS – model architecture Data Source: OECD Input-Output Database Mark Meyer: Prospects and Drivers of Future European Resource Requirements 15 (Paper prepared for the final WIOD conference, Groningen, April 2012)
gw gws GINFORS – model architecture Main Characteristics • Global multisector/multicountry ex ante simulation model projecting pressures from economic activities on the environment • Agents decide on imperfect markets under conditions of bounded rationality • Econometric estimation of model parameters • Bilateral trade for 26 product groups between 53 countries • # integrated Input-Output models: 27 (>80% of World GDP) Detailed technical documentations • Barker et al. (2011) • Lutz et al. (2010) • Lutz and Meyer (2009) Mark Meyer: Prospects and Drivers of Future European Resource Requirements 16 (Paper prepared for the final WIOD conference, Groningen, April 2012)
3. Selected Findings 17
gw gws Exemplary results (all [materials] countries) Aggregated findings Mark Meyer: Prospects and Drivers of Future European Resource Requirements 18 (Paper prepared for the final WIOD conference, Groningen, April 2012)
gw gws Exemplary results (sums of national figures) Sustained shifts from domestic to imported material flows 2010 2030 54,4% 14,9% 19,7% 19,7% 45,5% 45,5% 19,0% 23,7% 23,7% 11,7% 11,1% 11,1% Domestic extraction used Domestic extraction used Domestic extraction used Imports Imports Imports Unused domestic extraction Unused domestic extraction Unused domestic extraction Hidden flows associated to imports Hidden flows associated to imports Hidden flows associated to imports Mark Meyer: Prospects and Drivers of Future European Resource Requirements 19 (Paper prepared for the final WIOD conference, Groningen, April 2012)
gw gws Exemplary results (sums of national figures) Relevance of metal ores and biomass increases 2010 2030 Biomass: Biomass: Metal ores: Metal ores: Non-metallic minerals: Non-metallic minerals: Fossil energy Fossil energy Agriculture Agriculture Iron Iron Construction minerals Construction minerals materials/carriers materials/carriers Wood Wood Non-ferrous metals Non-ferrous metals Industrial minerals Industrial minerals Others Others Other Other Other metals and Other metals and Excavation and dredging Excavation and dredging products mainly products mainly Erosion Erosion Other products mainly Other products mainly from metals from metals non-metallic mineral products non-metallic mineral products Mark Meyer: Prospects and Drivers of Future European Resource Requirements 20 (Paper prepared for the final WIOD conference, Groningen, April 2012)
gw gws Key results Summarised findings • Despite European Climate Policy and rising raw material prices slight rise in summarised EU countries’ national material requirements by an average of 0.5% per year • Differences among countries • No absolute decoupling in sight without further resource policies • Import share of summarised EU countries’ national material requirements rises from 57% to 66% Mark Meyer: Prospects and Drivers of Future European Resource Requirements 21 (Paper prepared for the final WIOD conference, Groningen, April 2012)
4. Supplementary notes and outlook 22
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