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GSMA Seminar Theatre 2015 Mobile Wi-Fi Is there room for both - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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GSMA Seminar Theatre 2015 Mobile Wi-Fi Is there room for both licensed and unlicensed networks? Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Forecast Mobile Data Traffic Update, 2014 2019 GSMA Seminar: Mobile, WiFi Continuum Dr. Robert Pepper

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GSMA Seminar Theatre 2015

Mobile – Wi-Fi Is there room for both licensed and unlicensed networks?

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Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Forecast

Mobile Data Traffic Update, 2014–2019

GSMA Seminar: Mobile, WiFi Continuum

3 March 2015

  • Dr. Robert Pepper

Vice President - Global Technology Policy

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Home 45%* Work 29%* Hotspot 16%* On the go 9%*

Day in a Connected life

*consumption of data by 2019 Source- Cisco VNI

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Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line

Global Mobile Data Traffic will Increase 10-Fold from 2014─2019

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

57% CAGR 2014–2019 5 10 15 20 25 30

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

10.8 EB 2.5 EB 10.7 EB 6.8 EB 4.2 EB 16.1 EB 24.3 EB

Exabytes per Month

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Global Mobile Data Traffic Drivers

More Mobile Connections More Mobile Users Faster Mobile 4G Speeds More Mobile Video

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

By 2019:

Mobile Momentum Metrics

2014 2019

7.4 Billion 11.5 Billion

2014 2019

9.8 Mbps 14.1 Mbps

2014 2019

4.3 Billion 5.2 Billion

2014 2019

55% of Traffic 72% of Traffic

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Global Mobile Device Growth by Type

By 2019, Smartphones Will Attain Largest Share to Reach Nearly 40%

2 4 6 8 10 12

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Other Portable Devices (0.2%,0.2%) Tablets (1%,3%) Laptops (3%,2%) M2M (7%,28%) Smartphones (29%,40%) Non-Smartphones (61%,27%)

9% CAGR 2014–2019

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

Billions of Devices

* Figures (n) refer to 2014 and 2019 device shares

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VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2014–2019

Top Mobile Networking Trends

4G Takes Off WiFi and off-loading becoming more essential Video driving consumption Wild Cards: VoWiFi and Low Power M2M WANs

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Billions of Devices or Connections

4G 3G 2G

Global Connections by Network Type

2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

59% 68% 29% 3% 26% 15%

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018

LAST YEAR

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0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

2G 3G 4G

Global Connections by Network Type

2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

48.2% 62% 32% 6% 28.5% 23.3% Billions of Devices or Connections

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

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50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Millions of Devices or Connections

4G 3G 2G

North America Connections by Network Type

2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

51% 62% 13% 25% 42% 7%

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018

LAST YEAR

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100 200 300 400 500 600

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

2G 3G 4G

North America Connections by Network Type

2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

63% 46% 39% 15% 30% 8% Millions of Devices or Connections

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

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100 200 300 400 500 600 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Millions of Devices or Connections

4G 3G 2G

Western Europe Connections by Network Type

2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

60% 66% 32% 2% 24% 16%

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018

LAST YEAR

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50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

2G 3G 4G

  • W. Europe Connections by Network Type

2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

45% 34% 56% 10% 37% 18% Millions of Devices or Connections

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

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100 200 300 400 500 600 700

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Millions of Devices or Connections 4G 3G 2G

Latin America Connections by Network Type

2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

64% 74% 25% 0.1% 27% 9%

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018

LAST YEAR

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100 200 300 400 500 600

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

2G 3G 4G

Latin America Connections by Network Type

2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

55% 66% 33% 1% 23% 21% Millions of Devices or Connections

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

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1 1 2 2 3 3 4

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Billions of Devices or Connections

4G 3G 2G

Asia Pacific Connections by Network Type

2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

58% 74% 2% 24% 29% 13%

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018

LAST YEAR

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500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

2G 3G 4G

Asia Pacific Connections by Network Type

2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

48% 66% 28% 5% 27% 25% Millions of Devices or Connections

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

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200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Millions of Devices or Connections 4G 3G 2G

MEA Connections by Network Type

2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

58% 86% 13% 0.3% 37% 5%

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018

LAST YEAR

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200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

2G 3G 4G

MEA Connections by Network Type

2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

54% 80% 19% 1% 32% 14% Millions of Devices or Connections

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

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10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Millions of Devices or Connections

4G 3G 2G

Spain Connections by Network Type

2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Shares

66% 74% 1% 24% 17% 17%

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018

LAST YEAR

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5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

2G 3G 4G

Spain Connections by Network Type

2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

45% 22% 67% 11% 42% 14% Millions of Devices or Connections

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

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5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

2G 3G 4G

Australia Connections by Network Type

2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

54% 34% 56% 11% 39% 7% Millions of Devices or Connections

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

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VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2014–2019

Top Mobile Networking Trends

4G Takes Off WiFi and off-loading becoming more essential Video driving consumption Wild Cards: VoWiFi and Low Power M2M WANs

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5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices

Global Mobile Data Traffic Offload*

54% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded by 2019 46% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2014

46% 54%

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

Exabytes per Month

*Offload includes traffic from dual-mode devices (i.e., supports cell & Wi-Fi, excl. laptops) over Wi-Fi/small cell networks

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2 4 6 8 10 12

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices

NA Mobile Data Traffic Offload*

66% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded by 2019 57% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2014

34% 66%

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

Exabytes per Month

*Offload includes traffic from dual-mode devices (i.e., supports cell & Wi-Fi, excl. laptops) over Wi-Fi/small cell networks

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices

WE Mobile Data Traffic Offload*

61% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded by 2019 45% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2014

39% 61%

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

Exabytes per Month

*Offload includes traffic from dual-mode devices (i.e., supports cell & Wi-Fi, excl. laptops) over Wi-Fi/small cell networks

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1 2 3 4

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices

LATAM Mobile Data Traffic Offload*

46% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded by 2019 35% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2014

54% 46%

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

Exabytes per Month

*Offload includes traffic from dual-mode devices (i.e., supports cell & Wi-Fi, excl. laptops) over Wi-Fi/small cell networks

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5 10 15 20

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices

APAC Mobile Data Traffic Offload*

50% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded by 2019 44% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2014

50% 50%

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

Exabytes per Month

*Offload includes traffic from dual-mode devices (i.e., supports cell & Wi-Fi, excl. laptops) over Wi-Fi/small cell networks

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1 2 3 4 5 6

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices

MEA Mobile Data Traffic Offload*

38% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded by 2019 29% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2014

62% 38%

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

Exabytes per Month

*Offload includes traffic from dual-mode devices (i.e., supports cell & Wi-Fi, excl. laptops) over Wi-Fi/small cell networks

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100 200 300 400

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices

Australia Mobile Data Traffic Offload*

45% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded by 2019 37% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2014

55% 45%

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

Petabytes per Month

*Offload includes traffic from dual-mode devices (i.e., supports cell & Wi-Fi, excl. laptops) over Wi-Fi/small cell networks

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Global Internet Traffic by Local Access Technology

76% Internet Traffic Access is Wireless

Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018

Petabytes per Month 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mobile Data (61% CAGR) Fixed/Wired (10% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (71% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi Only Devices (19% CAGR)

24% 44% 15%

23% CAGR 2013–2018

17%

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Australia Traffic by Local Access Technology

77% Internet Traffic Access is Wireless

Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018

Petabytes per Month 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mobile Data (63% CAGR) Fixed/Wired (7% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (77% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi Only Devices (19% CAGR)

23% 56% 13%

22% CAGR 2013–2018

8%

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VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2014–2019

Top Mobile Networking Trends

4G Takes Off WiFi and off-loading becoming more essential Video driving consumption Wild Cards: VoWiFi and Low Power M2M WANs

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5 10 15 20 25 30

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Mobile File Sharing (1%,2%) Mobile Audio (8%,7%) Mobile Web/Data/VoIP (36%,19%) Mobile Video (55%,72%)

Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Apps

Video to Exceed 72 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2019

57% CAGR 2014–2019

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

Exabytes per Month

* Figures (n) refer to 2014 and 2019 mobile data traffic shares

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500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Mobile File Sharing (1%,2%) Mobile Audio (7%,6%) Mobile Web/Data/VoIP (32%,17%) Mobile Video (60%,75%)

NA Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Apps

Video to Account for 75 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2019

47% CAGR 2014–2019

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

Exabytes per Month

* Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 mobile data traffic share

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500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Mobile File Sharing (1%,2%) Mobile Audio (7%,6%) Mobile Web/Data/VoIP (35%,18%) Mobile Video (56%,74%)

WE Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Apps

Video to Account for 74 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2019

48% CAGR 2014–2019

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

Petabytes per Month

* Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 mobile data traffic share

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500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Mobile File Sharing (2%,3%) Mobile Audio (8%,7%) Mobile Web/Data/VoIP (40%,20%) Mobile Video (50%,70%)

CEE Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Apps

Video to Account for 70 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2019

71% CAGR 2014–2019

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

Exabytes per Month

* Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 mobile data traffic share

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500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Mobile File Sharing (1%,2%) Mobile Audio (8%,7%) Mobile Web/Data/VoIP (38%,19%) Mobile Video (53%,72%)

LATAM Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Apps

Video to Account for 72 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2019

59% CAGR 2014–2019

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

Exabytes per Month

* Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 mobile data traffic share

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1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Mobile File Sharing (1%,2%) Mobile Audio (8%,7%) Mobile Web/Data/VoIP (37%,20%) Mobile Video (54%,71%)

APAC Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Apps

Video to Account for 71 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2019

58% CAGR 2014–2019

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

Exabytes per Month

* Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 mobile data traffic share

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500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Mobile File Sharing (2%,3%) Mobile Audio (8%,7%) Mobile Web/Data/VoIP (40%,22%) Mobile Video (50%,68%)

MEA Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Apps

Video to Account for 68 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2019

72% CAGR 2014–2019

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

Exabytes per Month

* Figures (n) refer to 2014, 2019 mobile data traffic share

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20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Average Hour Traffic Busy Hour Traffic

Busy Hour Mobile Data Traffic

Busy Hour Is 64% Higher than Average Hour in 2014, 84% in 2019

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

Tbps

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VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2014–2019

Top Mobile Networking Trends

4G Takes Off WiFi and off-loading becoming more essential Video driving consumption Wild Cards: VoWiFi and Low Power M2M WANs

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

VoWiFi VoLTE VoIP

71%

Wild Card: VoWiFi MoU Exceeds VoLTE by 2018

VoWiFi Accounts for 53% of Mobile IP Voice by 2019

53% 41% Minutes of Use (Billions) per Year

Source: ACG, Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

6% 29%

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0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

2G 3G 4G LP M2M

Wild Card: Global M2M Connections By Network Type

35% 67% 32% 1% 29% 23% 42% 38% 7% Billions of Devices or Connections

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014–2019

13% 13%

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Key Takeaways

  • 4G taking off…3G dominate…2G past peak
  • WiFi essential as complement to mobile macro cell networks
  • Video driving mobile data
  • Need more investment in networks to meet demand
  • Need more spectrum—licensed and unlicensed
  • Wild cards: new business models
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Cisco VNI Mobile Forecast; 2014–2019

Get more info—see Tools and Resources www.cisco.com/go/vni traffic-inquiries@cisco.com

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spectrum4all@gsma.com