Growth in a Changing Economy Jan. 9, 2017 3 Key Economic - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Growth in a Changing Economy

• Jan. 9, 2017

3 Key Economic Trends/Myths

• Shift from making stuff to coming up

with ideas

• What is a strong economy?
• The rise of the “winner take all”

economy

U.S. Employment Share by Sector

Production, 39.5% Trade, 26.1% Services, 34.4%

1960

Production, 16.1% Trade, 19.4% Services, 64.5%

2015

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

• 3%
• 2%
• 1%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000's 2010's

U.S. GDP growth rates have slowed.

Annual Growth Rate 10 Year Moving Avg.

Employment and GDP are no longer attached.

90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Growth Index (2000=100

GDP and Employment Growth Trends

Employment GDP

The Rise of the “Winner Take All” Economy – Traditional Economy

The Rise of the “Winner Take All” Economy – Digital Economy

So, where does Kansas City fit in?

Kansas City Economy

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Kansas City MSA Employment 2016

840 7,077 7,191 17,549 20,176 21,748 31,985 47,654 47,696 48,346 54,239 54,640 58,918 71,897 76,123 76,340 89,401 90,043 113,930 147,895

• 20,000

40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000

Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Utilities Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Information Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Management of Companies and Enterprises Public Administration Wholesale Trade Other Services (except Public Administration) Transportation and Warehousing Construction Finance and Insurance Administrative and Support Educational Services Manufacturing Accommodation and Food Services Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Retail Trade Health Care and Social Assistance

Employment 2016

Kansas City Specializations

0.18 0.45 0.86 0.86 0.91 0.93 0.93 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.98 1.01 1.04 1.11 1.21 1.22 1.29 1.39 1.66 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Manufacturing Educational Services Public Administration Construction Accommodation and Food Services Information Health Care and Social Assistance Retail Trade Administrative and Support Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Other Services (except Public Administration) Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Wholesale Trade Utilities Transportation and Warehousing Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Finance and Insurance Management of Companies and Enterprises

KC MSA Location Quotients

KC Economy Specializations

20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000

Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Health Care and Social Assistance Information Finance and Insurance Transportation and Warehousing Prof., Scientific, and Technical Svcs.

KC Employment by Industry 2001-2015

Source: Jobs EQ

Some strengths lift, others pull down

(7,434) (3,195) (1,552) (857) (678) 86 977 1,151 1,665 2,802 2,823 3,029 3,466 3,819 8,385 15,246 (10,000) (5,000)

• 5,000

10,000 15,000 20,000 Wired Telecommunications Carriers Other Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing Depository Credit Intermediation Printing and Related Support Activities Insurance Carriers Rail Transportation Wholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and Brokers General Freight Trucking Freight Transportation Arrangement Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component… Agencies, Brokerages, and Other Insurance Related… Architectural, Engineering, and Related Services Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting… Motor Vehicle Manufacturing Computer Systems Design and Related Services Management of Companies and Enterprises

Employment Change in Last 5 Years

What KC Does for the world

Population Growth

1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000 10,000,000

Chicago Dallas Houston Washington Philadelphia Miami Atlanta Boston San Francisco Phoenix Riverside Detroit Seattle Minneapolis San Diego Tampa Denver

• St. Louis

Baltimore Charlotte Portland Orlando San Antonio Pittsburgh Sacramento Cincinnati Las Vegas Kansas City Cleveland Columbus Austin Indianapolis San Jose Nashville Virginia Beach Providence Milwaukee Jacksonville Oklahoma City Memphis Louisville Raleigh Richmond New Orleans Hartford Salt Lake City Birmingham Buffalo Rochester Grand Rapids Tucson

2015 Population

Population Growth

73,768

(100,000)

• 100,000

200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000

Houston Dallas New York Los Angeles Washington Miami Atlanta Phoenix San Francisco Seattle Austin Denver Orlando Riverside San Antonio Boston Charlotte San Diego Tampa Minneapolis Las Vegas Portland Nashville Raleigh San Jose Sacramento Columbus Oklahoma City Jacksonville Philadelphia Indianapolis Baltimore Chicago Salt Lake City Kansas City New Orleans Richmond Grand Rapids Virginia Beach Louisville Cincinnati Tucson

• St. Louis

Milwaukee Memphis Birmingham Detroit Providence Rochester Buffalo Hartford Pittsburgh Cleveland

Numeric Population Growth 2010-15

Components of Population Change

Natural Growth, 11,071 Domestic Migration, 779

• Intl. Migration, 4,280

Components of Population Change 2014-15

Net Domestic Migration 2014-15

< -9,000

• 9,000 to -4,454
• 4,453 to 2,429

2,430 to 24,901 > 24,901

Source: ACS 2015 1-year

43.5% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% Las Vegas Memphis San Antonio Oklahoma City Louisville Cleveland Tampa Jacksonville Providence Virginia Beach Nashville Indianapolis Cincinnati

• St. Louis

Orlando Sacramento Milwaukee Charlotte Richmond Columbus Pittsburgh Kansas City San Diego Baltimore Portland Austin Denver Seattle Minneapolis-St. Paul Raleigh San Jose

Kansas City ranks towards the top in overall edcuational attainment relative to its peers.

Educational Attainment

Educational Attainment 2015

Percent of Adult Population with at least and Associate’s Degree

<38.2% 38.2% to 40.5% 40.6% to 42.5% 42.6% to 46.5% >46.5%

Brain Drain or Brain Gain?

• 1,000

2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Kansas City Net In-Flow Population 25+ with at least a Bachelor's degree

Brain Drain or Brain Gain?

3,129

(6,000) (4,000) (2,000)

• 2,000

4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000

Net Inflow of the Population with at Least a Bachelor's Degree -2015

Household Income

$60,502

$- $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000

San Jose Washington San Francisco Boston Seattle Baltimore Hartford Minneapolis Denver New York San Diego Austin Salt Lake City Raleigh Philadelphia Portland Chicago Sacramento Los Angeles Dallas Houston Richmond Kansas City Atlanta Virginia Beach Providence Columbus Nashville Cincinnati

• St. Louis

Milwaukee Riverside Phoenix Grand Rapids San Antonio Charlotte Indianapolis Pittsburgh Rochester Detroit Jacksonville Louisville Oklahoma City Buffalo Las Vegas Birmingham Orlando Cleveland Miami Tampa Memphis New Orleans Tucson

Kansas City sits towards the middle of the pack in terms of median household income

Household Income

• 6.0%
• 4.0%
• 2.0%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% $53,000 $54,000 $55,000 $56,000 $57,000 $58,000 $59,000 $60,000 $61,000 $62,000 $63,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Kansas City MSA Median Household Income

Real Median Household Income (Left Axis) Annual Rate of Change (Right Axis)

Household Income

6.0%

• 2.0%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%

Nashville Birmingham Atlanta San Francisco Kansas City Portland Memphis Orlando Milwaukee San Jose Seattle Austin Providence Raleigh Hartford Denver Rochester Salt Lake City Philadelphia Sacramento San Antonio Tampa Boston Jacksonville Miami Phoenix Indianapolis Louisville/Jefferson County Dallas Pittsburgh Buffalo Los Angeles New Orleans Columbus Riverside Minneapolis Tucson Chicago New York Charlotte Cleveland Houston Washington Detroit Virginia Beach Grand Rapids Cincinnati

• St. Louis

San Diego Baltimore Las Vegas Richmond Oklahoma City

Kansas City saw one of the greatest increases in median household incomebetween 2014 and 2015.

Lee’s Summit’s Role

Lee’s Summit is a high income community.

$75,020 $48,212 $41,255 $80,242 $81,144 $42,229 $50,259 $60,502

$- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000

Lee's Summit Jackson County Kansas City Olathe Overland Park Independence Kansas City MO Kansas City, MSA

Median Household Income 2010-15

2010 2015

Median home values have topped $200,00

$200,300 $130,800 $87,600 $207,700 $249,000 $100,200 $138,400 $164,700

$- $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000

Lee's Summit Jackson County Kansas City Olathe Overland Park Independence Kansas City Kansas City, MSA

Median Home Value 2015

Lee’s Summit has a high, and growing level of educational attainment.

47% 30% 47% 62% 19% 33% 16% 36%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Lee's Summit Jackson County Olathe Overland Park Independence Kansas City MO Kansas City, KS KCMSA

Educational Attainment

Percent of Adult Population with at least a Bachelor's Degree

2005 2010 2015

Lee’s Summit is getting younger.

36.8 36.5 33.4 33 38.2 38.6 35.9 37.1 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 Lee's Summit Jackson County Kansas City, Kansas Olathe Overland Park Independence Kansas City MO KCMSA

Median Age 2010-15

2010 2015

Population growth is fairly balanced by age group.

• 1,000

2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 U5 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Lee's Summit Populationby Age Cohort

2010 2015

Employment Change by Industry (1 of 2)

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000

Information Management of Companies and Enterprises Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Public Administration Transportation and Warehousing Wholesale Trade Construction Finance and Insurance

Lee's Summit Employment Change by Industry 2005-2015

Health Care leads the way in Lee’s Summit employment growth.

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

• 1,000

2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Administrative and Support Services Manufacturing Other Services Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Educational Services Accommodation and Food Services Retail Trade Health Care and Social Assistance

Lee's Summit Employment Change by Industry 2005-2015

21,351 30,284 31,993 37,420 9,983 10,018

• 5,000

10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 2005 2010 2014

Lee's Summit Commuting Trends

In Out Live and Work

Lee’s Summit Employment

Lee’s Summit Employment: Where Lee’s Summit Workers Live.

Lee’s Summit Employment: Where Lee’s Residents Workers Work.

Lee’s Summit Employment by Industry

• 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000

Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Utilities Management of Companies and Enterprises Information Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Public Administration Transportation and Warehousing Wholesale Trade Construction Finance and Insurance Manufacturing Other Services (except Public Administration) Administrative and Support and Waste… Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Educational Services Accommodation and Food Services Retail Trade Health Care and Social Assistance

Lee's Summit Employment by Industry

Lee’s Summit Employment Specializations

0.01 0.08 0.58 0.65 0.73 0.80 0.83 0.84 0.85 0.87 0.99 1.03 1.03 1.09 1.10 1.16 1.19 1.22 1.32 1.33 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Public Administration Manufacturing Information Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Management of Companies and Enterprises Transportation and Warehousing Administrative and Support Construction Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Utilities Educational Services Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Wholesale Trade Health Care and Social Assistance Accommodation and Food Services Other Services (except Public Administration) Retail Trade Finance and Insurance

Lee's Summit Specialization

Lee's Summit

Lee’s Summit Employment Specialization Comparison

0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Public Administration Manufacturing Information Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Management of Companies and Enterprises Transportation and Warehousing Administrative and Support Construction Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Utilities Educational Services Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Wholesale Trade Health Care and Social Assistance Accommodation and Food Services Other Services (except Public Administration) Retail Trade Finance and Insurance

Lee's Summit Specialization

KC MSA Lee's Summit

Conclusion

• Economy is changing
• Kansas City is has a strong base, opportunity for

more

• Lee’s Summit is continuing to establish itself as a

growing, attractive community

• Lee’s Summit has the opportunity to transition

from local economy to a traded economy.