Growing Horizons Global Market Forecast 2017 - 2036 John Leahy - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

John Leahy Chief Operating Officer, Customers

Growing Horizons

Global Market Forecast

2017 - 2036

Global Market Forecast 2017: Highlights

Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) | Jet freight aircraft (>10 tonnes) Source: Airbus GMF 2017 2

World Fleet Forecast 2016 2036

RPK (trillions) 7.0 16.5 Passenger Aircraft Fleet 18,890 40,120 New passenger aircraft deliveries 34,166 Dedicated Freighters 1,610 2,410 New freighter aircraft deliveries 733 Total New Aircraft Deliveries

34,899

vs. GMF16

+3.1% +6.4% +1,741

% change 2016-2036

135% 112% 50% +88 +14.2% +1,829

20-year demand for almost 35,000 new passenger and freighter aircraft

Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) | Jet freight aircraft (>10 tonnes) Source: Airbus GMF 2017 3

34,899 new aircraft 24,807 single-aisle aircraft 8,686 twin-aisle aircraft 1,406 very large aircraft

5.3

$US trillion

+1,277 vs GMF 2016 +626

• 74

+1,829

Single-aisle represent 71% of units, and widebodies represent 54% of value

Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) | Jet freight aircraft (>10 tonnes), Rounded figures to the nearest 10 Source: Airbus GMF 2017 4

Number of aircraft

24,810 8,690 1,410

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Single-aisle Twin-aisle Very Large Aircraft

% units 71% 25% 4% % value 46% 44% 10%

Fleet in service evolution

Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) | Jet freight aircraft (>10 tonnes), Rounded figures to the nearest 10 Source: Airbus GMF 2017 5

Number of aircraft* 20,500 7,630 12,870 22,030 34,900

• 5,000

10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 Beginning 2017 2036 New Deliveries

20-year new deliveries Replacement Growth Stay

2016 was a good year

20 42 64 78

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 <0% [0% - 5%] [5% - 10%] >10%

Source: ICAO, OAG, IHS Economics, Airbus GMF 6

Number of countries % - ASK growth 2015-2016

142 countries

81% of world population 88% of world GDP

World load factors remain at record levels

Source: ICAO, OAG, IHS Economics, Airbus GMF 7

World passenger load factor - %

60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

80% 69%

Air transport growth is highest in expanding regions

Source: IHS Economics, Airbus GMF 2017 8

Yearly RPK growth 2016 - 2036

Emerging/Developing

China India Middle East Rest of Asia Africa CIS Latin America Central Europe

+5.8 %

Advanced

Western Europe Israel North America Japan Singapore South Korea Australia/New Zealand

+3.2 %

1

billion people in 2016

6.4

billion people in 2016

781 828 850 865 859 73 144 216 322 456 501 981 1,822 2,695 3,624 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 1996e** 2006 2016 2026 2036

Middle Class to almost double over the next 20 years

Rounded total to nearest 50 * Households with yearly income between $20,000 and $150,000 at PPP in constant 2016 prices ** Estimate for 1996 split by region Source: Oxford Economics, Airbus GMF 9

People in Middle Class* (million)

Emerging countries Developing countries Advanced countries

8,900 56%

World Population (M.) % of world population

8,200 47% 7,430 39% 6,600 30% 5,820 23%

Forecast

4,950 3,900 2,900 1,950 1,350

Almost 50% of world’s private consumption to come from emerging markets

Source: IHS Economics, Airbus GMF 10

World private consumption (trillion 2010 $US)

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036

Forecast

Advanced countries

54% 66% 77%

Emerging/Developing countries

34% 23%

46%

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

~60% of international tourists to be transported by air in 2036

Source: UNWTO, Sabre GDD, Airbus GMF 11

International tourist arrivals (million)

>1.2bn tourists

Forecast

48% Share of tourists travelling by air 51%

54%

57%

>2.4bn tourists

59% 61%

62%

Tourism by Air Tourism by surface (Road , Water, Rail)

Low Cost Carrier market penetration has increased significantly since 2006

Source: OAG – September of each year, Airbus GMF 12

North America Europe-CIS Asia-Pacific Middle East Africa Latin America

2006 2016 2006 2016 2006 2016 2006 2016 2006 2016 2006 2016

Low Cost Carrier seats offered on domestic and intra-regional flights (million)

38m >39m 25m 9m 4m 0.6m

x1.2 x2.6 x4.8 x3.9 x16.4 x5.7

~30% of the people from emerging countries took a flight in 2016…

Source: Sabre, IHS Economics, Airbus GMF 2017 13

2016 trips per capita

2016 real GDP per capita

(2010 $US thousands at Purchasing Power Parity)

Africa Asia/Pacific CIS Europe Latin America Middle East North America

0.01 0.1 1 10 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

India, 2016 0.1 trips per capita India, 2016 0.1 trips per capita China, 2016 0.4 trips per capita United States, 2016 1.8 trips per capita Bubble size proportional to population

… in 2036, it will be 83%

Sources: Sabre, IHS Economics, Airbus GMF 2017 14

Africa Asia/Pacific CIS Europe Latin America Middle East North America

0.01 0.1 1 10 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

2036 trips per capita

2036 real GDP per capita

(2010 $US thousands at Purchasing Power Parity)

India, 2036 0.4 trips per capita China, 2036 1.3 trips per capita United States, 2036 2.5 trips per capita Bubble size proportional to population

Air travel has proved to be resilient to external shocks

RPK = Revenue Passenger Kilometre Source: ICAO, Airbus GMF 15

World annual traffic (trillion RPKs)

Oil Crisis Gulf Crisis Oil Crisis Asian Crisis WTC Attack SARS Financial Crisis

x2

since 9/11

+60%

growth over the last 10 years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

Traffic doubles every 15 years

RPK = Revenue Passenger Kilometre Source: ICAO, Airbus GMF 2017 16

World annual traffic (trillion RPKs)

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

x2 x2 x2

Airbus GMF 2017: 4.4% growth p.a. ICAO total traffic

Asia-Pacific continues to grow in importance

Source: Airbus GMF 2017 17

Traffic by airline domicile (trillion RPKs)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Asia-Pacific Europe North America Middle East Latin America CIS Africa 20-year CAGR Share of 2036 RPKs 5.6% 38% 3.4% 21% 2.6% 16% 6.1% 13% 4.5% 5% 4.0% 4% 5.3% 3% 2016 traffic 2017-2036 traffic Share of 2016 RPKs 30% 26% 22% 10% 5% 4% 3%

Domestic Chinese traffic to become number one

RPK = Revenue Passenger Kilometre Source: ICAO, Airbus GMF 2017 18

Annual traffic per leg flow

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

South America - USA Intra-Middle East Domestic Brazil Asia Developped - PRC Asia Developped - Asia Emerging Western Europe - South America Central Europe - Western Europe Western Europe - PRC Asia Emerging - PRC Asia Emerging - Middle East PRC - USA Domestic India Indian Subcontinent - Middle East Middle East - USA Domestic Asia Emerging Western Europe - Middle East Intra-Western Europe Western Europe - USA Domestic USA Domestic PRC Trillions RPKs 2016 2036

x3.6 x1.5 x1.8 x1.6 x2.5 x3.7 x4.5 x3.4 x5.4 x3.6 x3.4 x3.8 x2.2 x2.6 x2.0 x2.5 x3.0 x2.6 x3.1 x2.3

Trend towards densification, especially for Low Cost Carriers

143 150 156

100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 2006 2011 2016

Note: Aircraft capacity above 100 seats and below 210 seats Source: OAG – September of each year, Airbus GMF 19

All Airlines average single-aisle aircraft capacity per flight LCCs average single-aisle aircraft capacity per flight

143 155 165

100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 2006 2011 2016

A320 Family cabin enablers can raise A320 Family seat counts by up to 10%

20

Slim-line seats Space-Flex

New rear galley configuration

Smart-Lav

New lavatory design

New doors rating

Increased exit limit

Airbus Cabin-Flex

A321neo new door configuration

A319 156  160 seats A320 180  189 seats A321 220  240 seats

21

Airlines are choosing cabin enablers to increase seat count beyond 180 seats

Source: Airbus

Densification trend

A320 deliveries above 180 seats (% total deliveries)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

13% 11% 8% 8% 7% 5% 1% 74% 73% 73% 71% 62% 57% 59% 13% 16% 18% 21% 31% 37% 41% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 A319 A320 A321

22

The single-aisle market continues to move towards higher capacity aircraft

Upsizing

A320 Family deliveries

Source: Airbus, End December 2016, includes NEO

23

65 65% of net orders 41 41% of deliveries

• f Airbus single

aisles in 2016 were

A32 A321s

A321 – growing in popularity

24

Up to 240 seats & 4,000nm range with unbeatable fuel efficiency

A321neo

Capacity Range Fuel per seat A321neo vs. 737 MAX 10 +10 seats +1,000nm 10% lower

25

… beats the 787

• n comfort, fuel

and economics at $2 $20m 0m to $2 $25m 5m lower capital cost

A330neo

26

25% lower

• operating cost
• fuel burn
• CO2 emissions

Compared to previous generation

A350 XWB

27

In 2016, 10% of all passengers at London Heathrow travelled on 54 daily A380 flights*

* Inbound and outbound

10% of all Heathrow passengers

28

Over 80 additional seats with same comfort level as current deliveries

* Project development study

A380 new revenue enablers

New rear stair Premium Economy Class at 9-abreast New forward stair* Combined crew rest compartment Economy class at 11-abreast Upper deck sidewall stowage removal Upper deck door 3 deactivation*

14 seats 8 seats 6 seats 20 seats 23 seats 3 seats 11 seats

X 2.5

Backlog development 2007 - 2016

Industry backlog 12,589 aircraft Industry backlog 4,988 aircraft

End 2016 2007

Data to end December 2016

Boeing 2,455 49% Airbus 2,533 51% Boeing 5,715 45% Airbus 6,874 55%

X 2.7 X 2.3

Net market share last 10 years

Boeing 8,978 47% Airbus 9,995 53%

Data to end December 2016

Summary

31

Drivers

Strong & resilient passenger traffic growth As air transport develops, new drivers become more significant Middle-class to almost double by 2036

Summary

32

Traffic forecast

Air traffic (RPK) doubles every 15 years Airbus traffic (RPK) forecast to grow 4.4% p.a.

Fleet forecast

34,900 new deliveries by 2036: ~34,170 passenger aircraft 730 freighters 40% of new deliveries for replacement, 60% for growth Single-aisle: 71% of units Wide-bodies: 54% of value

Summary

33

Summary

34

Airbus Family

A321 an ideal entry-point into medium to long-haul markets A330neo & A350XWB: the lowest total cost widebody family with superior comfort levels A380: The solution for future traffic growth