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growing a city peter rupert professor department of economics, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
growing a city peter rupert professor department of economics, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
growing a city peter rupert professor department of economics, ucsb director, ucsb economic forecast project allan hancock college may 7, 2019 roadmap for today global and national outlook recent local trends where do we go from here?
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global outlook
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global outlook kinda sucks
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US
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US doesn’t suck
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strong US economy
income, profits, stocks...all up strongest labor market since? financially more robust
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Percent 1 2 3 4 5
3.3% 3.3% 1% 0.4% 1.5% 2.3% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 3% 2.8% 2.3% 2.2% 4.2% 3.4% 2.2% 3.2%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Economic Forecast Project Source: BEA
Real GDP
quarterly change at an annual rate year−over−year change
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1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8
Economic Forecast Project Source: BEA
Profits Fixed Investment
Non−residential Fixed Investment and Corporate Profits
Index, Q2 2009=1
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
Economic Forecast Project Source: BLS
S&P 500
Index
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1947 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2
Economic Forecast Project Source: Federal Reserve
Net Worth, Nonfinancial Corporate Business
Ratio to GDP
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1946 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4
Economic Forecast Project Source: Federal Reserve
Household Leverage
Liabilities to Disposable Income
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1947 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
Economic Forecast Project Source: Federal Reserve
Household Net Worth (Assets−Liabilities)
Ratio to GDP
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A M J J A S O N D J F M A
−100 100 200 300 400
- Economic Forecast Project
Source: BLS
Net Payroll Employment Change
Thousands, SA first estimate second estimate final
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A M J J A S O N D J F M A
−100 100 200 300 400
- Economic Forecast Project
Source: BLS
Net Payroll Employment Change
Thousands, SA first estimate second estimate final
what did the forecasters forecast?
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1948 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 4 6 8 10
Economic Forecast Project Source: BLS
Unemployment Rate Percent, SA
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vacancies and unemployment
2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Midwest
2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
South
2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Northeast
2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
West
Unemployed Persons (000's) Vacancies, (000's)
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018 1 2 3
AHE CPI
Inflation and Average Hourly Earnings
Percent change from a year ago
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growing a city
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growing a city
what is a city?
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growing a city
what is a city? people housing jobs schools stores parks and rec health safety
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growing a city
growing a city entails choices
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growing a city
growing a city entails choices agricultural land vs. residential manufacturing vs. services high density/low income housing
- il? cannabis? wine tasting?
start by examining the data
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growing a city population dynamics
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Population and Components of Change: Santa Barbara County
Population Population Births Deaths Natural Net Population July 1 Change Increase Migration Growth Rate 2005 411,683 493 6,301 2,936 3,365
- 2,872
0.12 2006 412,853 1,170 6,175 2,860 3,315
- 2,145
0.28 2007 416,648 3,795 6,252 2,708 3,544 251 0.92 2008 419,970 3,322 6,327 2,898 3,429
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0.80 2009 422,423 2,453 6,180 2,876 3,304
- 851
0.58 2010 423,567 1,144 5,970 2,879 3,091
- 1,223
0.27 2011 425,354 1,787 5,746 2,881 2,865
- 1,078
0.42 2012 430,318 4,964 5,638 2,888 2,750 2,214 1.17 2013 435,329 5,011 5,701 2,990 2,711 2,300 1.16 2014 440,090 4,761 5,758 2,999 2,759 2,002 1.09 2015 444,491 4,401 5,809 3,016 2,793 1,608 1.00 2016 447,309 2,818 5,590 3,140 2,450 368 0.63 2017 450,138 2,907 5,463 3,256 2,207 700 0.65 2018 453,288 3,150 5,544 3,363 2,181 969 0.68 Average per Year 3,071 5,845 2,959 2,887 227 0.73 Source: CA Department of Finance
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Population Distribution
1-year 5-year 2017 2018 Growth Rate Growth Rate Buellton 5,098 5,291 3.8% 8.7% Carpinteria 13,697 13,704 0.1% 4.5% Goleta 31,622 31,949 1.0% 6.5% Guadalupe 7,341 7,604 3.6% 7.0% Lompoc 43,881 43,599
- 0.6%
1.9% Santa Barbara 94,244 94,807 0.6% 5.6% Santa Maria 107,978 108,470 0.5% 8.0% Solvang 5,653 5,771 2.1% 8.9% Unincorp Area 140,511 142,262 1.2% 4.4% SB County 450,025 453,457 0.8% 5.5% Tri-Counties 1,585,145 1,592,631 0.5% 3.5% Source: CA Department of Finance
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Population and Housing: Santa Barbara County
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Population (Jan. 1) 428,194 433,073 438,512 442,987 447,073 450,025 453,457 % change 0.89 1.14 1.26 1.02 0.92 0.66 0.76 Total Housing Units 153,689 154,170 154,733 155,353 156,520 157,578 158,622 % change 0.28 0.31 0.37 0.40 0.75 0.68 0.66 Vacancy Rate 6.70 6.60 6.50 6.20 6.00 6.10 6.20 Source: CA Department of Finance *All values are January 1 estimates.
population is growing faster than housing
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growing a city employment, output and income
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how we work
where are the jobs? show me the money
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how we work
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Source: CA Employment Development Department, Current Employment Survey (CES)
Percentage of Total Employment, by Industry
Santa Barbara County
Dec '98 Dec '08 Dec '18
share of employment has been fairly constant
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how we work
$0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000
Employment Mean Annual Wage
Source: CA Employment Development Department, Occupational Employment Statistics (OES)
Occupations by Highest Employment
Santa Barbara County, 2018 Q1
largest employment in low wage jobs
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what we produce
Government Financial Activities
- Prof. & Bus. Services
Wholesale Trade
- Educ. & Health Services
Trans., Ware. & Util. Goods Producing Information Total Farm Leisure & Hospitality Retail Trade Other Services
15.8 13.7 11.4 9.3 8.7 7.7 7.3 7 6.1 6 4.9 2.2
10 20 25 50 75 100 Percent of Total Real GDP, 2017 2016−2017 Growth Rate (%)
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Industry Santa Barbara County
no gdp growth in our largest sectors
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understand tradeoffs!
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growing a city major issue i: land use
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agriculture and commercial have grown since 2014
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affordability
effects of high housing prices higher density? deter employment growth?
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20 40
Kern (Bakersfield) Kings County Tulare San Bernardino Merced Madera Fresno Stanislaus Placer County Solano Sacramento San Joaquin Riverside County Contra−Costa Ventura San Diego Los Angeles Napa San Luis Obispo Sonoma Monterey Orange County Alameda Marin Santa Barbara Santa Cruz Santa Clara San Mateo San Francisco
CA Average: 29% US Average: 56%
Affordability 2017Q4
2017...not so affordable
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2018...above the CA average!
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land use
how has land use changed?
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250000 500000 750000 2017 2012 2007 2002 1997 Year Acres
Type
Non−Cropland Acres Cropland, Not Harvested Cropland, Harvested
Santa Barbara County
Agricultural Land Usage
Source:USDA
33% of farms have a female principal operator 14% of principals under the age of 45
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growing a city major issue ii: competing uses
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3000 6000 9000 2017 2012 2007 2002 1997 Year Count
Santa Barbara County
Sheep Inventories
Source:USDA
where did the sheep go?
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major issue ii
growth in a new industry: cannabis issue: difficult to bank business permitting
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legislation
The Secure and Fair Enforcement (SAFE) Banking Act of 2019 would solve a key logistical and public safety problem in states that have legalized medicinal or recreational cannabis. Currently, cannabis businesses operating under state laws that have legalized medicinal or recreational cannabis have been mostly denied access to the banking system because banks that provide them services can be prosecuted under federal law. (Sens. Merkely D-OR, Gardner R-CO)
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comparative advantage
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large differences in salaries
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growing a city major issue iii: minimum wages
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minimum wages
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minimum wages
effect on low skill workers automation better alternative earned income tax credit
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growing a city major issue iv: opportunity zones
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- pportunity zones
if people want to give you money take it! sb county has 7
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growing a city major issue v: more tariffs
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tariffs
did this last year new threat: from 10% to 25%
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final thoughts
where do we go from here? understand tradeoffs make informed decisions let your local politicians know will the recovery end soon?
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