Good Morning. American Association Im not Walter Kemmsies. of Port - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Good Morning. American Association Im not Walter Kemmsies. of Port - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jul 05, 2023 256 likes •485 views

Good Morning. American Association Im not Walter Kemmsies. of Port Authorities Commissioners Seminar Jock OConnell San Francisco International Trade Advisor, Beacon Economics June 18, 2019 Senior Economic Consultant, Pacific Merchant

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SLIDE 1

American Association

  • f Port Authorities

Commissioners Seminar

San Francisco June 18, 2019

Good Morning. I’m not Walter Kemmsies.

Jock O’Connell

International Trade Advisor, Beacon Economics Senior Economic Consultant, Pacific Merchant Shipping Association

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SLIDE 2

U.S. Foreign Trade is Concentrated

TOP 5 TRADING PARTNERS = 52.9%

2010

Canada China Mexico Japan Germany Others

TOP 5 TRADING PARTNERS = 54.5%

2018

China Canada Mexico Japan Germany Others

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SLIDE 3

But U.S. Maritime Trade is Less Concentrated

TOP 5 TRADING PARTNERS = 32.8%

2010

China Mexico Canada Japan Brazil Others

TOP 5 TRADING PARTNERS = 34.4%

2018

China Mexico Canada Japan Brazil Others

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SLIDE 4

Top U.S. Maritime Trade Partners by Tonnage

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

China Mexico Canada Japan Brazil

Millions of Metric Tons

2018 2017 2016

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SLIDE 5

What Comes Next?

This is the part of the presentation where the speaker says he doesn’t want your job. Really, he doesn’t.

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SLIDE 6

Longer- Term Frets and The Perils of Prophecy

This is the part of the presentation where the speaker disparages expresses reservations about the value of most cargo forecasting.

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SLIDE 7

The 2007 San Pedro Bay Forecast vs. The Great Recession

  • 2,000,000

4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 16,000,000 18,000,000 20,000,000 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

In TEUs

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SLIDE 8

Polishing the Old Crystal Ball

Here the speaker urges you to look back before looking forward, especially when making decisions affecting your ports’ long- term competitiveness.

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SLIDE 9

Fact- Finding in Panama, November 2014

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SLIDE 10

Principal Clusters of Challenges For Forecasting Maritime Trade

Trade Policy Regulatory Issues Technological Developments Demographics Climate Change

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SLIDE 11

Trade Policy

Ever since Brittan Woods in 1944, the U.S. has nurtured a global consensus biased toward free trade.

That consensus was shattered in January 2016 when President Trump:

  • Pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)
  • Halted negotiations for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment

Partnership

  • Threatened to withdraw from the North America Free Trade Agreement
  • Questioned the value of the World Trade Organization
  • And subsequently embarked on erecting tariffs against imports from

most every U.S. trading partner

The business of world trade is now befogged with uncertainly and no clear sign of resolution.

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SLIDE 12

Regulatory Issues

Heightened pressure to slash CO2 and PM emissions from ships More strident demands to replace diesel with electric modes of onshore conveyance Impact of clean water initiatives Save the Whales

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SLIDE 13

Technologies

Difficult to predict what the next new things or the next transformative technologies will be.

  • Amazon, which has harvested a host of innovative

technologies, increases imports but is being forced to maintain more inventory in more locations.

  • Potential role of Additive Manufacturing in disrupting

global supply chains. If we can make it here, we can make it anywhere.

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SLIDE 14

Demographics: Not necessary destiny, but close

Some nations will soar in population while other decline

  • China’s population should peak in 2025 and will continue to

decline thereafter

  • Japan, Germany, South Korea, and Taiwan will also shrink
  • India is projected to overtake China as most populous

nation in 2025

  • Half of the world’s net population gain by mid-century will

come from Africa; Nigeria

Populations will also be older, putting added pressure on social services and pointing toward reduced consumption

  • f tradable goods
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SLIDE 15

Shares of World Population: 2015-2050

0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00%

S-S. Africa N.E. Asia

  • So. Asia

Europe Latin America NAFTA Other Regions

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

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SLIDE 16

Populations of Major Nations: 2015/2050/2100

United Nations Forecast

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 China India Japan Russia Germany USA Nigeria 2015 2050 2100

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SLIDE 17

Climate Change

Rising sea levels will put coastal communities and businesses at risk. Higher temperatures/changing rain patterns will threaten existing agricultural regions. More violent storms. Higher temperatures will also induce massive migration of populations out

  • f hot-zones.
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SLIDE 18

Summing up the Long-Term Outlook

Climate Change 2050: Most popular name for male child: Noah 2050: Most popular name for female child: Pandora Rising Sea Levels Agricultural Impacts Mass Migration

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SLIDE 19

Leaving on a More Positive Note Qu Qua a nav ave nih nihil il ad admir irab abili ilius us vi visum in in mar ari certum tum est…Lo Longitud ngitudo spa patiu tium

  • b
  • btin

tinuit it mag agna na ex pa parte te Os Ostie tiensi nsis portu tus la late tere la laevo.

– Pli

liny y th the E Eld lder, , Na Natu tural alis is His isto toria ia

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SLIDE 20

Latin in Translation It is certain that nothing more wonderful than this ship has ever been seen on the sea…its length took up a large part of the left side of the harbor of Ostia.

– Pliny the Elder, Naturalis Historia

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SLIDE 21

Thank you.

@JOCKO KOCONNELL JOCK@JOCKO KOCONNELL.COM