GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06GMO
North America | Europe | Asia-Pacific
Fresno County Employees’ Retirement Association
September 6, 2006
Wendy Malaspina Tina Vandersteel
Presentation
GMO North America | Europe | Asia-Pacific Fresno County Employees - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
GMO North America | Europe | Asia-Pacific Fresno County Employees Retirement Association September 6, 2006 Wendy Malaspina Presentation Tina Vandersteel GMO 0 WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06 Presenters Wendy Malaspina Ms. Malaspina is
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06North America | Europe | Asia-Pacific
Fresno County Employees’ Retirement Association
September 6, 2006
Wendy Malaspina Tina Vandersteel
Presentation
1
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06Presenters
Tina Vandersteel Ms. Vandersteel is a member of the global fixed income group, focusing on product management and research. Prior to joining GMO in 2004, she worked at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. in fixed income research, developing quantitative arbitrage strategies for emerging markets and high yield bonds. Ms. Vandersteel earned her B.A. from Washington & Lee University. She is a CFA charterholder. Wendy Malaspina Ms. Malaspina is engaged in client relations. Prior to joining GMO in 2003, she worked at Montgomery Asset Management / Wells Capital Management, most recently as a director in institutional client service and marketing. Previously, she worked as a director of client service, marketing and investor relations at Draper Advisers. Ms. Malaspina received her B.A. in International Trade from Clemson University.
2
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06GMO Overview
* As of 6/30/2006 ** Asset allocation and absolute return assets are accounted for within underlying strategies and should not be double-counted.GMO has successfully managed money since our founding in 1977. Experience
86 investment professionals More than 300 employees worldwide
People
We apply a blend of proven
traditional judgments and innovative quantitative methods to find undervalued securities.
Our success is based on a
disciplined, value-oriented, risk- controlled investment philosophy and a commitment to investment research. Distinctive Approach
$106 billion in global equities
($78 billion non-U.S.)
$15 billion in fixed income $36 billion in asset allocation** $7 billion in absolute return
strategies** Assets of $121 Billion* Motivation We are a private partnership Focus Investment management is our only business Discipline We carefully manage risk, seeking long-term capital appreciation Stability We have exceptionally low turnover of investment professionals Defining Characteristics San San Francisco Francisco Boston Boston London London Sydney Sydney Zurich Zurich Singapore Singapore Rotorua Rotorua
3
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06GMO Investment Strategies
* Strategy is currently closed to new clients and additional cash flows
1 Strategy currently capacity constrained 2 Privately offered and available only to qualified purchasers. Call GMO for further information. 3 New clients and additional cash flows through Emerging Country Debt Investment Fund only. 4 New clients and additional cash flows through World Opportunities Equity Allocation Fund only.Note: Does not include all GMO products.
North America Offices
Currency Hedged International Equity Foreign (Int’l Active Strategy)1 International Intrinsic Value International Small Companies1 Emerging Markets* Emerging Countries* Emerging Markets Quality1 International Disciplined Equity International Growth Foreign Small Companies (Int’l Active Strategy)* Global EquitySydney Office
Australian Equities1 Australian Core Equities Australian Market Neutral Trust* Australian Long/Short Equity* Australian Small Companies*London Office
UK Equities World ex-UK Equities U.S. Value U.S. Core Intrinsic Value Growth Small/Mid Cap Value Small/Mid Cap Growth Tobacco-Free Core Real Estate Investment Trusts U.S. QualityFixed Income Absolute Return Long/Short
International Bond Emerging Country Debt1, 3 Currency Hedged International Bond Strategic Fixed Income Domestic Bond Core Plus Bond Inflation Indexed Plus Bond Short-Duration Investment Global BondGlobal Equities
Tax-Managed International Equities Tax-Managed U.S. Equities Tax-Managed Small/Mid Cap Real Return Global Balanced Asset AllocationAsset Allocation
Tax-Managed Global Balanced2 Global Growth Europe ex-UKU.S. Equities International Equities
Alternative Assets
Forestry* Alternative Asset Opportunity1 Global (Int’l Active Strategy)1 Emerging Currency Hedge2 Mean Reversion* 2 Emerging Country Debt Long/Short* 2 Market Neutral2 U.S. Aggressive2 Earnings Outlook2 Global Tactical2 Tax-Managed Absolute Return2 Multi-Strategy1,2 (combination of strategies above) Pan-European Long/Short1,2 Currency Hedge2 U.S. Tactical Opportunities1,2 Fixed Income Hedge2 International Equity Allocation1 U.S. Broad Market Short Term Market Opportunities1,2 Inflation Indexed Bond* Alpha Only4
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06Fresno County Employees’ Retirement Association
Periods ending July 31, 2006
Performance Gross of Management, Operating, Incentive Fees ($U.S.) Performance Net of Fees and Expenses ($U.S.)
Month YTD Year Year Year Inception * (000) 1 3 5 Since Market Value Annualized
Global Bond (3/12/99)
0.60 4.37 3.57 8.18 9.64 6.68 70,512
JPMorgan Global Gov't. Bond
0.80 3.41 1.30 5.52 8.03 5.22
Value Added
0.96 2.27 2.66 1.61 1.46 Month YTD Year Year Year Inception * (000) 1 3 5 Since Market Value Annualized
Global Bond (3/12/99)
0.57 4.13 3.15 7.79 9.25 6.31 70,512
JPMorgan Global Gov't. Bond
0.80 3.41 1.30 5.52 8.03 5.22
Value Added
0.72 1.85 2.27 1.22 1.09
* Periods of less than a year are not annualized
Fixed Income at GMO
6
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06GMO Fixed Income Strategies (with Benchmarks)
Assets as of August 1, 2006 totaled $14,803 million
Developed Market Fixed Income
$8,494 million J.P. Morgan: EMBI Global EMBI Global Diversified
Emerging Country Debt
$3,754 million
Absolute Return and Alternative Assets*
$2,218million
Global Fixed Income
$2,042 million J.P. Morgan: Global Government Bond Index Non-U.S. Government Bond Index Non-U.S. Government Bond Index (Hedged)—ex Japan Lehman Brothers Global Aggregate Bond Index
Core U.S. Fixed Income
$1,852 million JPMorgan U.S. 3-Month Lehman Brothers Government Cash Index ($544 Million) Bond Index ($492 million)
*We trade, on behalf of GMO Sydney, the Global Tactical Strategy (assets $518 million).
Global Fixed IncomePortable Alpha
$4,599 million TIPS Plus: Lehman Treasury Inflation Notes Index ($792 million) Short Duration Plus: Lehman U.S. Treasury 1-3 Year Index ($591 million) U.S. Core Plus: Lehman Brothers U.S. Aggregate Index ($3,216 million) Lehman Brothers Treasury Inflation Notes Index ($816 million) Emerging Country Debt Alternative Asset Opportunity (Commodities) Emerging Currency Hedge Currency Hedge Fixed Income Hedge
Core Strategies
7
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06GMO Fixed Income
Team of 16 has years of collective investment management industry experience 224
At GMO Industry Portfolio Management Bill Nemerever, Partner, Group Co-Manager 13 32 Tom Cooper, Partner, Group Co-Manager 13 26 Steve Edelstein, Partner 11 24 Allan Berliant 3 21 Justin Klosek 4 9 Research/Product Management/Technology Tina Vandersteel 3 16 Mark Mueller, Partner 10 14 George Estes, Partner 10 10 Kim Sullivan 6 8 Max Golts 1 2 Andy Gossard 1 1 Trading/Support Madelyn Tucker 9 16 Tracey Keenan 4 16 Bill O'Connell 7 8 Kyle Ciano 2 3 Investment Control Mark Puorro 13 18
Commodities and Alternatives
Investment Strategy Focus Years
Bonds and Currencies Emerging Country Debt Asset-Backed Securities and Corporate Credit
8
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06GMO Core Beliefs and Competitive Advantages
Relative value is best exploited from the top down
Global Fixed IncomeCheap implementation maximizes alpha, including when replicating the benchmark
GMO implements using instruments with low transactions costs both for benchmark replication and active management, which allows the portfolios to respond quickly to changing markets but precludes investments in illiquid securities, like corporate bonds.
Global bond markets are less efficient
There are five times as many managers benchmarked to aggregate-style domestic indices than benchmarked to global government bond indices.
Systematic methods effectively deal with complex issues
GMO’s disciplined approach is a consistent, thorough, adaptable way of capturing our investment ideas. Our approach avoids the pitfalls caused by emotion. GMO evaluates currencies and bonds separately, generating independent sources of alpha. Liking a country’s bonds does not mean we like the currency.
Currencies and bonds should be evaluated separately Currency markets are particularly inefficient
Currency markets have relatively few dedicated currency managers. Major market participants – hedgers and Central Banks – are not primarily motivated by currency profits.
9
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06Investment Process Overview
First we replicate the benchmark, then we combine a variety of strategies to add value
Value-Added Strategies Benchmark Replication
+
Invest in bonds, currencies, short-term high-quality debt & derivatives to generate benchmark- like returns
+ +
Emerging Country Debt
Opportunity Set: Emerging Country Debt J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index Global and related sovereign, hard currency emerging country debt exposures Asset-backed Securities AAA, floating-rate ABS with various collateral types
Currencies
Opportunity Set: Australian dollars Canadian dollar Euro Yen New Zealand dollar Norwegian krone Swedish krona Swiss franc U.K. pound U.S. dollar
Relative Value Momentum-Plus Security Selection Bonds Yield Curve Market Selection Rate Anticipation Volatility Asset-Backed Securities Issue Selection Issue Selection
Opportunity Set: Australian interest rates Canadian interest rates Euro-area interest rates Yen interest rates Swedish interest rates Swiss interest rates U.K. interest rates U.S. dollar interest rates
Performance Review: Global Bonds
11
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-061-Year Performance Attribution: Total
Data as of 7/31/2006
Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06
Total
Global Bond Fund 1.64% -1.15% -1.05% -0.59% 0.24% 0.83% -0.23% -1.06% 3.20% 1.72% -0.90% 0.57% 3.15% J.P. Morgan Global Government Bond Index 1.83%
1.04% 1.28%
2.19% 1.79%
0.80% 1.30% Alpha
0.78% 0.76% 0.55% -0.81% -0.46% 0.23% 0.16% 1.01% -0.06% 0.07% -0.23% 1.85% Bond Market
24 6
22 22 33 10
66 Overlays 3 6
3
10 1 2
Currency
79 58 45
16 6 19 Emerging Markets 14
4 3 8 11
3
5 37 LIBOR Plus 1
4 1 5 5
4
10 Trading Costs
Issue selection/other 5
3 1
5
7 107
167 Total alpha
78 76 55
23 16 101
7
185
12
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-061-Year Performance Attribution: Bond Markets
Global bond yields began rising in the second half of 2005, accelerating throughout the first half of 2006 before falling slightly in July. Major, sustained positions included overweight Sweden and underweight U.S. and U.K. We had been underweight briefly in the Euro-area in 2005 but otherwise overweight. U.S., Australian, Swiss and U.K. positions were the largest positive contributors over the past 12 months. The Swedish and Japanese overweights detracted from performance.
Data as of 7/31/2006
JPMorgan Global Government Bond Index Yield
2.7% 2.9% 3.1% 3.3% 3.5% 3.7% 3.9% Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06
Total of 66 bps Local Currency Total Bond Returns
2.1% 1.9%
4.4%
3.1% 0.8% Australia Canada Denmark Euro-area Japan New Zealand Norway Sweden Switzerland U.K. U.S.
Bond Active Weights at Quarter Ends and Current
16% 0%
0% 0% 20%
8% Australia Canada Denmark Euro-area Japan New Zealand Norway Sweden Switzerland U.K. U.S.
Contribution to Performance, bps
30 3 1 8
25 17 37 Australia Canada Denmark Euro-area Japan New Zealand Norway Sweden Switzerland U.K. U.S.
13
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-061-Year Performance Attribution: Currency Markets
The U.S. dollar’s 2005 strength has evaporated in 2006, despite its continued yield advantage versus many of the major currencies. Due to the recent decrease in our U.S. dollar position, currency alpha reversed, and now is positive for the trailing 12 months. While overweights in Scandinavian countries hurt performance, underweight positions in Japanese yen and euros as well as a British sterling underweight provided gains.
Data as of 7/31/2006
Total of 19 bps
Weighted U.S. dollar performance
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06
Currency Returns
0.8% 8.5% 5.0% 5.1%
5.0% 7.5% 4.4% 6.0% Australia Canada Denmark Euro-area Japan New Zealand Norway Sweden Switzerland U.K.
Currency Active Weights at Quarter Ends and Current
6% 2%
2% 6% 3% 1% 4% 7% Australia Canada Denmark Euro-area Japan New Zealand Norway Sweden Switzerland U.K. U.S.
Contribution to Performance, bps
23
35 80
58
Australia Canada Denmark Euro-area Japan New Zealand Norway Sweden Switzerland U.K.
14
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06Performance Attribution
Performance attribution is run daily, providing immediate feedback about the portfolios
Total15
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06Global Bond Performance: Frank Russell Universe
Performance data quoted represents past performance. The investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor's shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Yield will fluctuate. There are risks associated with investing in a fund of this type that invests in securities of foreign countries, such as erratic market conditions, economic and political instability, and fluctuations in currency exchange rates. Performance shown is gross. Composite Inception Date: 12/31/95.8.59
GMO Global Bond Composite Universe of Global Fixed Income Composites – Unhedged Periods Ending June 30, 2006
GMO Global Bond Composite (U.S. $) JPMorgan Global Gov’t. Bond (U.S. $) Rate of Return (%) Periods
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 10 Years 9 Years 8 Years 7 Years 6 Years 5 Years 4 Years 3 Years 2 Years 1 Year Current Quarter Min/Max GMO
6.11 5.69 5.35 6.67 10.72
GMO
5.98 5.69 5.37 6.30 9.56
GMO
5.82 5.66 5.47 6.29 9.01
GMO
6.07 5.89 5.41 6.89 9.93
GMO
7.15 6.62 6.35 7.68 11.79
GMO
8.34 9.34 10.02 14.19
GMO
7.88 7.25 6.95 8.24 12.06
GMO
4.97 4.49 4.14 5.43 7.83
GMO
4.22 3.50 3.42 5.27 6.71
GMO
0.23
1.90 2.90
GMO
2.89 2.56 2.29 3.52 4.25
16
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06GMO Sources of Value Added
A diverse set of strategies adds breadth to our process
Bond Market Selection
Emerging Debt Exposure (5%)
Currency Market Selection (51%) Global Bond Market Strategies (44%)
Rate Anticipation Yield curve Volatility Relative Value Momentum Plus
Portfolio Positioning
18
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06Current Portfolio: Global Bond Fund
Data as of 7/31/2006
0% 2% 1% 37% 29% 0% 0% 1% 0% 6% 23% 0% 18% 0% 0% 45% 11% 0% 0% 21%
9% 4% Australia Canada Denmark Euro-area Japan New Zealand Norway Sweden Switzerland U.K. U.S.A. Emerging JPMorgan Global Government Bond Index GMO Global Bond Fund
0% 2% 1% 37% 29% 0% 0% 1% 0% 6% 23% 0% 9% 3% 0% 24% 11% 2% 6% 4%
12% 31% 0% Australia Canada Denmark Euro-area Japan New Zealand Norway Sweden Switzerland U.K. U.S.A. Emerging
JPMorgan Global Government Bond Index GMO Global Bond Fund
Currencies Bond Markets
Investment Process
20
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06Benchmark Replication
Benchmark exposures are replicated in the least expensive way to minimize tracking error
We can add value to any benchmark that can be replicated The return of the benchmark forms the base of our portfolio’s return We use bond futures, currency forwards, swaps, options and other instruments
to replicate the returns of the benchmark with limited risk. When they are inexpensive, we will use index total return swaps or synthetic indices to generate benchmark exposures
Because our replication of the benchmark requires only small amounts
management pool, the GMO Short-Duration Collateral Fund
21
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06Benchmark Replication
It’s not the number of instruments in the benchmark, but rather the number of unique risks
Benchmark type Examples Replication instruments Domestic or global government and government-related bond
Government bond and Agency bond futures, interest-rate swaps Inflation-protected government bond
Bonds, inflation swaps, index total return swaps Aggregate-style (by subcomponent)
Grade Indices Index total return swaps (rarely available at the aggregate level) Securitized
Mortgage TBAs, bonds, index total return swaps Bonds Investment-grade corporate credit
Index total-return swaps, synthetic CDX indices, single- name CDS Specialized Liability-driven Nominal pension liabilities Interest-rate swaps Broad Narrow
22
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06Currency Management
We believe that the fact that there are relatively few long-term investors in
global currency markets allows us to exploit continuing inefficiencies
We have developed models that enable us to add value consistently by buying
currencies we find undervalued and selling their overvalued counterparts
Currencies outside our clients’ benchmark universes can be sources of value-
added (e.g., U.S. dollar is traded in our non-U.S. portfolios)
Approximately half of our added-value comes from this strategy
23
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06What Makes a Currency Attractive?
High short-term yields…when risk aversion is low Strong current account …when risk aversion is high Positive price momentum Positive bond market momentum
Relative Value Momentum-Plus
24
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06Current Account/Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
17.8% 7.0% 3.8% 2.7%
13.5% Norway Switzerland Sweden Japan Canada Euro land U.K. Australia U.S.A. New Zealand Safest Riskiest
Risk Aversion Index
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Jul 05 Oct 05 Jan 06 Apr 06 Jul 06
Three-Month Libor
7.4% 5.5% 4.8% 4.3% 3.2% 3.1% 2.6% 1.6% 0.4% 6.1% New Zealand Australia U.S.A. U.K. Canada Euro land Norway Sweden Switzerland Japan
Risk Aversion Index Current Account Balance (Riskiness)
Currency Relative Value Model
We prefer high-yielding currencies especially when risk aversion is low, but we move to safe currencies when risk aversion is high
Relative Short-term Interest Rate
Risk averse: Reduce weight in risky currencies Risk Seeking: rank by yield Data as of 7/31/2006
With risk aversion low, we pay less attention to a currency’s riskiness and go for yield
25
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06Currency Valuation: Risk Aversion Example
Currency active weights are modulated by changes in the risk aversion weight
Source: GMO, updated through 12/31/2003Risk Aversion and Currency Active Weights
0% 10% 20% Jul-03 Aug-03 Sep-03 Oct-03 Nov-03 Dec-03 Jan-04 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00
Australian dollar weight (left) Swiss franc weight (left) Risk Aversion Index (right)
26
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06Yield Momentum in 10-Year Bonds
2.2% 1.5% 1.5% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1%
1.9% Switzerland Japan Euro land Australia U.S.A. U.K. Sweden New Zealand Canada Norway
Currency Momentum: Range of Short-to-Long Moving Averages
0% 2% 4% Australia U.K. Sweden Euro land New Zealand Norway Switzerland Canada Japan
Yield Curve Slope: 10-Year Swap versus 3-Month LIBOR
Basis Points
165 151 124 100 100 3 (18) (29) (48) (158) Norway Japan Sweden Switzerland Euro land Canada U.K. Australia U.S.A. New Zealand
Currency Momentum-Plus Models
Currency momentum alone tells only part of the story
Relative Bond Yield Momentum Relative Yield Curve Slope Relative Currency Momentum
Data as of 7/31/2006
27
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06Global Bond Management
Our valuation models rank daily eight global bond markets We over and underweight markets in the same fashion as absolute return
managers
Our bond markets universe includes more countries than are in the various
benchmarks we use
We rigorously manage risk and invest primarily using low-cost derivatives such
as bond futures, interest rate and total return swaps
28
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06What Makes a Bond Market Attractive?
High real yields Steep yield curve slopes Recent underperformance
Market Selection
29
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06Yield Curve Slope: 10-Year Swap versus 3-Month LIBOR
Basis Points
151 124 100 100 3 (18) (29) (48)
Japan Sweden Switzerland Euro land Canada U.K. Australia U.S.A.
6-Month Change in 10-Year Yield
Basis Points
50 48 47 42 39 38 16 49 Euro land U.S.A. Switzerland Australia U.K. Japan Sweden Canada
Real 10-Year Yields
3.0% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 1.8% 1.3% 1.3% 2.4% Australia Canada U.K. Sweden U.S.A. Euro land Japan Switzerland
Relative Recent Bond Market Performance Relative Yield Curve Slope Relative Real Yield
Bond Market Selection Models
We like high real yields, steep slopes, and recently lagging bond markets
Data as of 7/31/2006
30
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06Bond Market Selection Example
When all factors line up, the over/underweights are unambiguous
Source: GMO, updated through 4/30/2003Yield curve slopes: 10-year less 3 months
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3/12/2003 3/26/2003 4/9/2003 4/23/2003 Canada U.K. UniverseReal yields
1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0% 2.2% 2.4% 2.6% 2.8% 3.0% 3/12/2003 3/26/2003 4/9/2003 4/23/2003 Universe Average Canada U.K.Yield trend
Active weights
Canada U.K Universe Average
31
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06Downward yield momentum Steep slopes U.S. dollar strength Equity markets weakness
Rate Anticipation
What Makes Global Bonds Attractive?
32
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06Bond Rate Anticipation Model
We like bonds in general when yields have positive downward momentum, when slopes are high, when the U.S. dollar is strong, and when equity markets are weak
Moving Average Change in Global Yields
0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% Jul 05 Oct 05 Jan 06 Apr 06 Jul 06
Data as of 7/31/2006
Sources: J.P. Morgan, Morgan StanleyAverage Slope of Yield Curves in Euroland, U.K. and U.S.A.
0 b.p. 40 b.p. 80 b.p. 120 b.p. Jul 05 Oct 05 Jan 06 Apr 06 Jul 06
1-Year Change in USD and MSCI World Equity
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Jul 05 Oct 05 Jan 06 Apr 06 Jul 06
USD Real Effective Exchange Rate MSCI World Equity Index
Equity Weakness U.S. Dollar Strength Yield Curve Slope Yield Momentum
Flat yield curves are negative for bonds Global yields are no longer moving upward, which is less negative for bonds Currently equity weakness is neutral for bonds, while USD weakness is negative
33
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06Other Ways We Make Money in Bonds
Global yield curve slopes Opportunistic butterfly positions
Yield Curve Volatility
Mean reversion in interest-rate
volatility
34
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06Three-Month Change in 3-month, 3-month Forward Rates Basis Points
43 35 30 28 20 19 14 9 Sweden Australia Euro land Japan Switzerland U.S. U.K. Canada
Other Bond Models: Example
An additional risk budget is given to a series of bond strategies designed to add relatively uncorrelated sources of value to the portfolios: slope model example
Relative Swap Slopes
Data as of 7/31/2006
Forward Markets
Inclined to flatten Inclined to steepen
Static Return
Static Carry Including Rolldown (Duration Neutral Hedge Ratio)
1.3% 0.6%
U.S. (4.1) Canada (4.2) Australia (3.9) U.K. (4.2) Japan (4.5) Euro land (4.2) Switzerland (4.4) Sweden (4.2)
Yield Curve Slope: 10-Year Swap versus 2-Year Swap Basis Points
118 75 71 45 38 14
Japan Switzerland Sweden Euro land Canada U.S. Australia U.K.
35
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06Portfolio Allocation
We have built a customized risk management system to model the active risks
in our portfolios
We budget our portfolio risks in a structured fashion, targeting specific tracking
errors for each strategy
Each trading day new market information is incorporated in our portfolios to
accommodate changing economic and market conditions
On a daily basis we attribute performance to our various strategies, gaining
valuable information to control and allocate risk
While allocations are performed based on the underlying strategies, an added
layer of risk control exists to limit exposures by bond market, by currency, and by the deviation of the portfolio duration from the benchmark
36
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06Risk Model
Risk model transforms alpha forecasts into bond and currency active weights
Data as of 7/31/2006 18%
7%
0%
8% 1%
2% 6% 3% 0% 6% 7% 20% 0%
5% 15% 25%
Australia Canada Euro land Japan New Zealand Norway Sweden Switzerland U.K. U.S.A.
Covariance Matrix
* 1.5%-2.5% for global bond portfolios, 15% for Currency Hedge Fund and Fixed Income Hedge FundCurrency Market Forecasts Bond Market Forecasts Risk Model
Maximizes expected return subject to tracking error* constraint
Active Weights
Trading Costs
37
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06Exposure Risk Statistics
Current & Range Tracking error 1.5% ▐ 2.5% Duration difference
+2yr Bond weights
▐ +25% Currency weights
▐ +25%
Portfolio Risk Exposures and Implementation
Tracking error is the primary risk measure, while credit rating distribution qualifies the cash collateral backing derivatives exposures
38
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06Active Management is Key to Capturing Value
Portfolio positions adjust to pick up relative opportunities on a daily basis
Data as of 7/31/2006 Daily Active Weight: Switzerland Bond Market
0% 2% 4% 6% 7/3 7/4 7/5 7/6 7/7 7/10 7/11 7/12 7/13 7/14 7/17 7/18 7/19 7/20 7/21 7/24 7/25 7/26 7/27 7/28 7/31 Daily Active Weight: Australian dollar
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 7/3 7/4 7/5 7/6 7/7 7/10 7/11 7/12 7/13 7/14 7/17 7/18 7/19 7/20 7/21 7/24 7/25 7/26 7/27 7/28 7/31
39
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06Implementing global bond and currency allocations:
markets using derivatives such as forwards, futures, swaps and options
adding well-priced convexity when available to limit downside risks
Investing underlying cash collateral:
positioning, we select complementary AAA-rated issues that carry a liquidity or complexity yield premium
Earning a credit spread:
We use a small (0-5%), relatively stable allocation to our Emerging Country Debt fund to earn the asset class’ yield spread and take advantage of the Fund’s alpha, generated almost exclusively through security selection
Security Selection
Some of our value-added comes from diverse security selection choices
40
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06Short-Duration Collateral Fund (SDCF): Quality and Diversification
Quality Distribution
Interest Rate Duration Percent Floating Rate Spread to LIBOR 0.1% Market Value $5.9 billion 92%
Portfolio Breakdown
0.25 years Spread Duration 0.1 years
Please see Appendix for SDCF guidelines Data as of July 31, 2006
Cash 1.1% AAA Non- Insured 87.8% US Agency 1.2% U.S. Treasury 0.0% Non-AAA 0.5% AAA Insured 9.4%
All Triple-A Rated 99.5%
UK Residential Business Loans 6% CDO 10% CMBS 6% MBS Residential 2% Other 5% Student Loans 7% ABS Residential 23% 6% Treasury 0% Agency 1% Auto 12% Australian Residential 4% Insurance Financing 1% Credit Cards 17%
41
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06Summary
Global currency and bond markets offer fixed income managers dramatically
more opportunities to add value than domestic bond markets
Opportunities in currency and bond markets can be exploited independently Our valuation models and implementation techniques give us the ability to
The value we add using our valuation models can be enhanced through
thoughtful security selection
Our team of experienced investment professionals focuses on investment
strategies where we have a significant competitive advantage
The value we add complements and diversifies that of other managers
Appendix
43
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06GMO Fixed Income Performance
Through July 2006
Performance data quoted represents past performance. The investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Yield will fluctuate. Performance shown is net of fees and expenses after reimbursement from the manager. The Fund may have a transaction fee at purchase and/or redemption which is paid to the Fund to cover trading costs. Average Annual Total Return figures reflect these fees; Total Return figures net of fees do not. There are risks associated with investing in a fund that invests in securities of foreign countries, such as erratic market conditions, economic and political instability, and fluctuations in currency exchange
Global thereafter. As of 7/ 31/ 2006 Total Return Net of Fees Average Annual Total Returns (Net Trans. Costs)
Fixed Income Fund/
Inception Month YTD YTD Value One Five Ten Since
Benchmark
Date 2006 2006 Added Year Year Year Inception Domestic Bond Fund 8/ 18/ 1994 1.12 0.53 0.24 1.47 5.02 6.53 6.74
Lehman Brothers U.S. Government
1.19 0.29 1.24 4.48 6.14 6.42 Core Plus Bond Fund 4/ 30/ 1997 1.17 0.48
2.63 6.22 N/ A 6.81
Lehman Brothers U.S. Aggregate
1.35 0.62 1.46 4.79 N/A 6.24 International Bond Fund 12/ 22/ 1993 0.51 4.21
2.16 10.79 6.19 7.86
JPMorgan Non-U.S. Gov't. Bond
0.67 4.57 1.46 9.21 4.81 5.85 Currency Hedged Int'l. Bond Fund 9/ 30/ 1994 1.35
1.82 5.84 8.22 9.99
JPMorgan Non-U.S. Gov't ex-JPN Hdg Bond +
1.34
1.27 4.70 7.02 7.97 Global Bond Fund 12/ 28/ 1995 0.57 4.13 0.72 3.15 9.25 6.69 6.68
JPMorgan Global Gov't. Bond
0.80 3.41 1.30 8.03 5.45 5.20 Emerging Country Debt Fund 4/ 19/ 1994 3.37 5.59 3.02 11.90 20.55 17.95 19.83
JPMorgan EMBI Global +
3.27 2.56 8.31 12.75 11.66 13.12 Inflation Indexed Plus Bond Fund 5/ 31/ 2006 1.28 1.40
N/ A N/ A N/ A 1.40
Lehman Brothers U.S. Treasury Inflation Notes
1.63 1.92 N/A N/A N/A 1.92 Strategic Fixed Income Fund 5/ 31/ 2006 0.52 0.60
N/ A N/ A N/ A 0.60
Lehman Brothers U.S. Treasury 1-3 Year
0.75 0.93 N/A N/A N/A 0.93
44
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06GMO Short-Duration Collateral Fund: Guidelines
Effective 9/2/2004
Pre NPF Current I. Issue/Issuer Limits Asset-Backed Securities Single Issue None 3% Corporate Securities Single Issuer 5% 3% Total per Issuer None 5% All Single Issues > 2% None 25% II. Servicer limit* None 5%
Total (Including Insured) Credit Card 25% 25% 40% Auto Financing 25% 25% 40% US Residential Home Equity None 25% 40% US Residential Prime Mortgages None 25% 40% CMBS None 25% 40% CDO None 25% 40% Other 25% 15% 25% Pre NPF Current IV. Sector Limits CBO: Emerging Collateral 25% 10% CBO: High-Yield Collateral 25% 10% USAid None 20% Gov’t Sponsored Enterprises None 15% each Government Repo None 15% V. Credit Limits Issues Rated Below AA- ** 2% per issuer All Issues Rated Below AA- None 10% All Issues Rated Below A- 5% 5% VI. Insurance Wrap Limits Per Insurer*** None 25%
* No Issues will be purchased whose servicer does not meet the standards set forth in the Fund’s investment guidelines. ** ALF represented that it primarily owned investment -grade securities. *** Wrapped issues are not coun ted in issuer, servicer , industry or sector limits above. However, within wrapped issues the limits above apply. Note: All limits apply at time of purchase.45
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06Capsule Biographies: Fixed Income
William Nemerever
global fixed income effort. Previously, he was in charge of several Fidelity Investments fixed income groups, head of the fixed income department at State Street Bank & Trust Co., a portfolio manager at Wells Fargo, and a portfolio manager, equity analyst and actuary at John Hancock. Mr. Nemerever earned his B.S. in Mathematics at the University of Washington and his M.S. in Actuarial Science from Northeastern University. He is a CFA charterholder. Thomas Cooper
a managing director at Boston International Advisors. Prior to joining Boston International, he worked at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Western Asset Management and State Street Bank & Trust Co. Mr. Cooper received his M.B.A. from the University of California (Berkeley) and earned a B.A. from Oberlin College. He is a CFA charterholder. Steve Edelstein
he was a vice president and fixed income options and futures strategist with Morgan Stanley. Mr. Edelstein has also worked with First Boston in the fixed income proprietary trading, government trading and risk management groups, and as a financial model builder and programmer with Lehman Brothers’ Kuhn Loeb. He holds his M.S. in Economic and Social Statistics from Cornell University and earned a B.S. from the State University of New York at Oneonta. George Estes
1996, he was director for Latin America and Canada for the Burger King Corporation. Mr. Estes holds a B.A. in German from the University of Virginia and an M.B.A. in Finance from the University of California at Berkeley. Mark Mueller
fixed income group. Since joining GMO in 1997, he has also served as the director of research for the fixed income
at Morgan Stanley as a quantitative analyst in equity derivatives. Dr. Mueller holds a B.S. in Physics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a Ph.D. in Physics from Stanford University.
46
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-06Capsule Biographies: Fixed Income
Allan Berliant
Investment Management Company as director of asset-backed securities. Previously, he was a vice president within Structured Asset Research at Zurich Scudder Investments. Mr. Berliant earned his B.S. from The Johns Hopkins University and his M.B.A. from University of Chicago. Max Golts
in 2005, he worked on fixed income analytics and strategies for State Street Global Markets. Previously, he did volatility research at Fort Hill Capital Management. Dr. Golts earned his undergraduate degree from Kiev University and his Ph.D. in Mathematics from Yale University. Tracey Keenan
she held various positions at Standish Mellon, most recently as assistant vice president of fixed income trading. She earned her B.A. in political science from Stonehill College and her M.B.A. in Finance from Suffolk University. Justin Klosek
income teams of both Morgan Stanley Asset Management and Long-Term Capital Management. Mr. Klosek earned his B.S.E. in Civil Engineering and Operations Research from Princeton University and his M.S. in Civil Engineering from Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He is a CFA charterholder. Madelyn Tucker
Investments where she traded asset backed corporate and mortgage securities, and monitored benchmarks for trust
M.B.A. from the Simmons School of Management. Tina Vandersteel
GMO in 2004, she worked at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. in fixed income research, developing quantitative arbitrage strategies for emerging markets and high yield bonds. Ms. Vandersteel earned her B.A. from Washington & Lee
47
GMO
WM_Fresno County ERA_9-0640 Rowes Wharf Boston, Massachusetts 02110 (617) 330-7500 | www.gmo.com
North America | Europe | Asia-Pacific