Globalization, Networks, and the Interconnectedness of Europe and Central Asia (ECA) What’s at Stake for Inclusive Growth?
David Gould The World Bank 25 January 2018 GICA Conference Paris
Globalization, Networks, and the Interconnectedness of Europe and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Globalization, Networks, and the Interconnectedness of Europe and Central Asia (ECA) Whats at Stake for Inclusive Growth? David Gould The World Bank 25 January 2018 GICA Conference Paris Why this report? Connectivityor
David Gould The World Bank 25 January 2018 GICA Conference Paris
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FDI Network Trade Network N-Network MDC Network
Individual Network Layers Multidimensional Network (collapsed)
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2000 2014
Blue nodes are Europe and emerging ECA countries
The size of each country-node reflects the total volume of trade. Each node has two outgoing links, which point to the two top export partners of the country.
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The size of each country-node represents the estimated total number of air passengers. Each country node has two outgoing links that point the two largest destination countries
2000 2012
Blue nodes are Europe and emerging ECA countries
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Each country node represents the combined value of the estimated incoming and outgoing ICT communication. Two outgoing links point to the two main outgoing partner countries
2002 2010
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The size of the node represents the multidimensional connectivity index of each country. The two outgoing links point to the strongest two connections
2000 2014
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Multidimensional Connectivity The dependent variable in the model is annual GDP growth (%). The PageRank multidimensional connectivity coefficient is standardized to represent the effect of a change of one standard deviation. Overall Growth Multidimensional Connectivity Impact on Growth 0.67*** Efficiency Exponents/Weights of Connectivity Channels Trade Channel Efficiency 0.53 FDI Channel Efficiency 0.37 Migration Channel Efficiency 0.10 ICT Channel Efficiency Airline Channel Efficiency Portfolio Flows Adj-R2 0.61
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Country-node represents the number of foreign born individuals in the country and number
destinations of each country
2000 2010
Blue nodes are Europe and emerging ECA countries
1 1
2003 2012
Blue nodes are Europe and emerging ECA countries
The size of the country-node reflects the total FDI stocks (incoming and outgoing) of the
for each country
1 2
Shock originating in Germany (10 Percent fall in all types of connectivity) Blue nodes are Europe and emerging ECA countries
1 3
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
Initial level of per capita connectivity Change in level of connectivity
Shock originating in USA
(10 Percent fall in all types of connectivity) Blue nodes are Europe and emerging ECA countries
1 4
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
Initial level of per capita connectivity Change in level of connectivity
Shock originating in Russia
(10 Percent fall in all types of connectivity)
Blue nodes are Europe and emerging ECA countries
1 5
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
Initial level of per capita connectivity Change in level of connectivity
Note: sample excludes firms owned by tax havens. Each cell shows the first five (or more, if there is a tie) most common countries of ownership, among the top 10 countries of ownership for each country. For the Russian Federation and Ukraine, the cells show the 5 countries with the biggest ownership shares. 16
Source: Own calculations based on WEF and Orbis data 17
Source: Based on regression analysis. Growth period 2010-2013. All of the underlying coefficients are statistically significant. 18
Regional Spillover Effects Sectoral Spillover Effects
Note: Based on regression analysis. Small firms are those with 49 employees or less; young firms are those aged 4 years or less. Each bar is the effect of increasing 1 point the average management scores of foreign firms. The bars in each panel are the baseline effect, the baseline effect plus the interaction term associated with size, and the baseline effect plus the interaction terms associated with size and age simultaneously.
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