GLOBAL MARKETS IN 2018 Equities, Bonds, Cryptocurrencies, and Gold - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

GLOBAL MARKETS IN 2018

Equities, Bonds, Cryptocurrencies, and Gold Monty Guild, Founder and Chief Investment Officer

BOOTH 225

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GRADING THE GLOBAL BACKDROP

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Economics: Real global growth 4%, real U.S. growth 3% A Corporate profits: U.S., growing 20%+ this year (7% due to tax cut, 13% due to profit growth) Global, growing 10–15% this year A Trade: Negotiations & tensions; probability of a large trade war, 15%. B Probability of short-term periodic fears gripping stock markets is high. Buy the dips. Interest rates: Rising slowly but steadily, in the U.S. and globally C

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Inflation: Rising modestly, within expectations B Political risk in the U.S.: Controversy, polarization, political gridlock C Global political risk B AVERAGE GRADE FOR THE GLOBAL BACKDROP B

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GRADING YOUR INVESTMENT OPTIONS

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Stocks: Much depends on the U.S. dollar Weak U.S. dollar Good for U.S., European, and Asian Stocks A- Strong U.S. dollar Bad for exporters, commodities, and foreign stocks. (Can buy foreign exporters if you hedge the currency.) C+ Cryptos: Crowded field; no clean trend; trading range C

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Bonds: Higher interest rates are bad for bonds D Gold: Building a base for the beginning of stronger demand. Trends affecting gold: (1) Inflation gradually trending up (positive); (2) Increased budget deficits world wide (positive); (3) Strong U.S. dollar will be negative; weak U.S. dollar will be positive. B

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CHOICES: How To Invest For the Rest of 2018

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European stocks: On the dips, buy exporters (Germany, U.K., France) Asian stocks: Vietnam, Chinese internet companies, India, Thailand, Japan U.S. stocks: Growth companies at market P/E ratios or lower (not at high P/E ratios) With a strong dollar: U.S. importers With a weak dollar: U.S. exporters; commodities; U.S. growth stocks; tech; banks; Asian stocks. If there are trade-dispute settlements: U.S. stocks in general; exporters and industrial stocks in particular.

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For a copy of this presentation, visit www.guildinvestment.com/ moneyshowmarkets/ Come visit us at Booth 225 to get your free copy of our Recession Watcher’s Guide

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To learn how Guild Investment Management can help you reach your financial goals, contact us today to schedule a complimentary, no-obligation portfolio review. guild@guildinvestment.com 310-826-8600 www.guildinvestment.com