Global food crisis future Global food crisis, future prospects of - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Global food crisis future Global food crisis, future prospects of food supply and demand and the role of irrigated agriculture in LMB irrigated agriculture in LMB

Andrew Noble, IWMI Southeast Asia, Vientiane Lao PDR.

October 2009

Outline

• The food crisis.
• Growth in agricultural
• utput in the region.
• utput in the region.
• Role of irrigation in

meeting future food meeting future food demands.

• 1. The food crisis
• Factors contributing

240 260 Food Price Index

• Factors contributing

to the crisis:

– Conversion of cropland to Biofuels;

x

180 200 220 240 Food Price Index Meat Price Index Dairy Price Index Cereal Price Index Sugar Price Index

cropland to Biofuels; – Higher oil prices; – Low grain reserves; Market speculation;

Price Inde

120 140 160 180

– Market speculation; – Extreme weather events; – Population growth

60 80 100 120

– Population growth.

Year

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 60

FAOSTAT 2009

• 1. Changing in diets
• Great income changes diets

g and demand on water

• Between 2 000 and 5 000 liters per person per

Between 2,000 and 5,000 liters per person per day – depending on type and amount of food eaten and how it is produced

Developed Developing

• 1. Impact of the food crisis
• Restrictions on grain

g exports by key countries.

• Dramatic increases

Dramatic increases in food prices - lower access to food food.

• A further 110 million

people into poverty and 44 million into and 44 million into the category of malnourished.

• 1. The future: drivers, risks

,

Population growth and demographic

change

Global economic conditions

Decreased investment for 5-10 Decreased investment for 5 10

years

Return of urban workers to rural

areas areas

Slowing export growth Political instability

Climate change

Climate change Water resource development

• 2. Agriculture in the region.

g cu u e e eg o

Food production has more than kept pace with

population growth population growth

Diversification to meet changed demands Food poverty decreasing

Export growth

Export growth

Flexible production systems with rapid uptake of new

crops and technologies, responsive to market signals

Expansion of agricultural areas is slowing –

production gains from increased yields, intensification

Contribution to GDP Contribution to GDP

livelihood for poor growth in agriculture benefits poorest half of population

0.6

Rice production per capita

• 2. Increased

0.4 0.6 es/capita Cambodia Lao PDR M

food security

0.2 tonne Myanmar Thailand Vietnam 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

35

Global Hunger Index

Source: FAOSTAT

15 20 25 30 1990 5 10 15 2008 Cambodia China Lao PDR Myanmar Thailand VietNam

Source: FASTAT

• 2. Agriculture’s role in poverty

alleviation alleviation

Mekong corridor –

Incidence of poverty: Southern Lao PDR

e o g co do access to irrigation Bolovens Plateau –

Lao PDR

Bolovens Plateau – diverse cropping, commercial crops – coffee

Thailand

coffee

Socio-Economic Atlas of Lao PDR,

Cambodia

, 2008

• 3. Global irrigation expansion 1960-2008

?

• 3. Irrigation

Projects LMB

• Irrigation development in

Northeast Thailand dominated Northeast Thailand dominated by small systems. Littl if f

• Little if any room for

expansion in Northeast Thailand.

• Vietnam delta region fully

developed developed.

• Irrigation expansion possible

in Lao PDR and Cambodia in Lao PDR and Cambodia.

• 3. Irrigation in the Delta
• Deltas of the region are the

rice bowls of the region.

• 90% of Mekong delta rice

90% of Mekong delta rice destined for global markets.

• The deltas are under stress:

– Urbanization S – Seawater intrusion and sea level rise. – Ecosystem degradation – Over abstraction of groundwater. – Sediment deposition.

• There is a need to produce 8

to 10 million tons rice to 10 million tons rice annually over the next 20 years to meet increased demand.

• 3. Revitalizing irrigation

g g

• Modernize yesteryear’s schemes for tomorrow’s

y y needs.

– Redesign, operate and manage large schemes for a range of uses. g

• Support farmer initiatives.

– Local adapted irrigation technologies i.e. wastewater, groundwater and scavenging surface water groundwater and scavenging surface water.

• Look beyond conventional PIM/IMT recipes

– Create public/private partnerships in the delivery of t i water services.

• Expand capacity and knowledge

• 3. Key Messages on Irrigation

Water is the key to addressing food g security (FS). Diversification of production systems is essential to meeting g FS. Potential role of ‘new’ water for dry season irrigation in Lao PDR g and Cambodia.

• 4. Key Messages on Irrigation

Groundwater may be essential in meeting future FS – potential is unknown. On-farm storage or tube wells offer greater flexibility for farmers. Increase water use efficiency through multiple use systems.

THANK YOU