Germanys Experiences Headline with the Energiewende Nedbank and EE - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Headline Germany‘s Experiences with the „Energiewende“

Nedbank and EE Publishers’ seminar “#EnergyTransition4.0 - A seminar on unlocking a just energy transition in South Africa “ Sandton, 7 May 2019 Rüdiger Lotz, Deputy Head of Mission, German Embassy Pretoria

The Energiewende combines security of supply, cost-effectiveness and environmental protection

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Source: BMWi

Environmentally sound Affordable and cost-effective Secure and reliable

The energy transition triad combines efficiency, direct use of renewables and sector coupling

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Source: BMWi 2017

Efficiency first Direct use of renewables Sector coupling

Germany is in a unique position to drive forward the transformation of the energy system in Europe

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Source: BMWi 2015, AGEB 2017, Statista 2017

Electrical neighbours

Germany at a glance

• Population: 82 million
• Largest economy in Europe,

4th largest in the world

• Gross electricity production

2016: 648.4 TWh

• Primary energy consumption

2016: 13,383 PJ

The Energiewende is Germany’s long-term energy and climate strategy

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Source: Ecofys 2018 based on BMWi 2016, UBA 2018, AGEB 2018

2020 2030 2040 2050 2025 2035 2045 .

Energy Efficiency

% greenhouse gas reduction (vs. 1990)

% gross electricity consumption

Final energy productivity (vs. 2008) Primary energy demand in buildings (vs. 2008) Primary energy consumption (vs. 2008) % gross final energy consumption Final energy consumption in transport (vs. 2005)

Climate Renewable Energy

• 40
• 55
• 70
• 80 to -95

+2.1% p.a. (2008-2050) 35 40 to 45 50 65 80 55 to 60 18 30 45 60

• 20
• 50
• 10
• 40
• 15 to -20
• 80

27.6% (2016) 36% 14.8% (2016)

• 6%

1.1% p.a. (2016)

• 15.9%

(2015) +1.3% (2015)

Achieved 2017 4,380 PJ (2008) .

Energy Efficiency

% greenhouse gas reduction (vs. 1990)

% gross electricity consumption

Final energy productivity (vs. 2008) Primary energy demand in buildings (vs. 2008) Primary energy consumption (vs. 2008) % gross final energy consumption Final energy consumption in transport (vs. 2005)

Climate Renewable Energy

40 55 70 80 to 95 +2.1% p.a. (2008-2050) 35 40 to 45 65 80 18 30 45 60

• 20
• 50
• 10
• 40
• 15 to -20
• 80

27.7% 36.2% 14.8% (2016)

• 6.0%

1.1% p.a. (2016)

• 18.3%

(2016) +4.2% (2016)

Germany plans to complete its nuclear phase-out by 2022 and have a low-carbon economy by 2050

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Source: Energiekonzept (2010) and Beschlüsse des Bundeskabinetts 2011

The energy transition involves all levels of government, the business community and society

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Source: BMWi 2017

Monitoring report

“Energy of the Future”

Federal and state coordination

Chancellor / Minister-Presidents of the Länder

In charge of the Energiewende

Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy

Stakeholder Dialogue

Energy Efficiency Platform Electricity Market Platform Buildings Platform Research and Innovation Platform Energy Grids Platform

4 8 12 16 Tonnes of CO2 per capita

Percentage of global population Global average: 4.9 t CO2 per capita

Per capita carbon emissions of some western economies are still twice as high as those of China

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Source: Ecofys 2017, data from EDGAR (2016) and World Bank (2016)

Germany USA & Canada Australia & South Pacific EU28 (excl. Germany) Rest of Europe** Russia China Middle East Former Soviet Republics* Latin America + Caribbean Asia Northern Africa Brazil India Sub-Saharan Africa

4.9% 18.8% 16.6% 17.9% 12.9% 2.8% 3.0% 5.9% 2.0% 4.7% 2.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 6.1%

*excluding Russia and EU members **Rest of Europa includes IS, NO, CH and the Balkans

Additional climate protection measures needed to close mitigation gap in 2020 and 2030

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Source: Navigant (2019) based on BMU (2018), BMWi (2018) and BMWi and BMU (2010).

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1990 2015 2016 2017* 2020 2020 2025 2030 2030 2035 [million tons of CO2 equivalent] targets energy industry agriculture industry commerce/trade/services transportation households waste & wastewater

Development of greenhouse gas emissions 1990 to 2035: Actual emissions by 2017 and projected emissions

806 (-36%) 751 (-40%) 682 (-46%) 563.4 (-55%)

*preliminary values

2020: projection vs. target 2030: projection vs. target

The Energiewende enjoys wide support within the German population

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Source: Ecofys based on IASS 2017 Social Sustainability Barometer, KfW Energiewendebarometer 2018

10 8 8 4 2 2 1 4 5 3 3 16 4 2

solar thermal solar PV heat pump financial participation in RE installation electric vehicle battery (storage) CHP installation planned stock

Participation of German households in Energiewende technologies (in %)

89% 8% 3%

Do you support the Energiewende?

75% - The Energiewende is a joint task to which everyone in society must contribute 14% - I think that the Energiewende is a good thing, but I cannot

• r do not want to contribute much to it

Yes I don’t know No

In June 2018, the German government mandated the Commission „Growth, Structural change and Employment“ to solve the ongoing political conflict around the future role of coal

The German Commission on „Growth, Structural Change and Employment“

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Source: Agora Energiewende 2019

The commission was staffed with 31 members rather representing social, economic and environmental interests than scientific expertise

The German Commission on „Growth, Structural Change and Employment“

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Source: Agora Energiewende 2019

Expert commission appointed by the German government recommended coal phase-out by 2038

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Source: Navigant 2019 based on Kommission WSB 2019 and DIW/Wuppertal Institut/Ecologic 2018

2000 2020 2040 Coal power plants in Germany 2030

2038

Coal phase

• ut

Security reserve

9.1 GW 2.9 GW 5.9 GW

Hard coal Lignite By 2020: decommissioning / transition to security reserve

Coal capacity reduced to 17 GW

2030 2016

GW 40 20 60 Expected development of coal generation capacity

2022

Coal capacity reduced to 30 GW

Decarbonising our energy systems leads to an increased electrification of all sectors

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Source: BMWi

1.

Germany is very active in sharing its experiences with other countries to learn from the good but also still improvable experiences with the Energiewende.

2.

The German „Energiewende” shows that it is possible for an industrialized country to transform its entire power and also energy sector sustainably.

3.

Even with 38% share of renewables in the power sector, the lights in Germany did not go out and – for the last years – electricity costs remain stable and affordable.

4.

The Energiewende has positive effects on job creation, innovation and other macroeconomic aspects.

5.

Germany has made progress but more action is needed to achieve German climate mitigation targets.

6.

Germany now ventures into a “just” coal exit by 2038 taking all stakeholders and groups of society with it.

Summary and Outlook

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Headline

Thank you for your attention

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Implementation of the Energiewende follows a defined strategy

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Source: BMWi 2018

The Energiewende forms part of an integrated European energy and climate strategy

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Source: BMWI. Ecofys and Edelman.ergo 2017

Renewables reduce dependence on energy imports

Source: Ecofys 2017 based on AGEB 2012, AGEB 2014

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

• 10

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 % of total final energy consumption (RES target) % of total primary energy supply renewables (RES) lignite hard coal gas

• il
• ther
• il imports

gas imports hard coal imports nuclear

RES target (final energy, right axis)

Dependence on imports domestic production 60% RES target (final energy)

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The EU’s “winter package” aims at deepening European integration in the field of energy

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Source: Ecoys based on European Commission 2018, BMWi 2016, BMWi 2017

Governance Regulation Revision of the Renewable Energy Directive Revision of the Energy Efficiency Directive Electricity market design

Each Member State is required to present a national energy and climate action plan for 2021-2030 Binding EU-wide target

• f 30% renewables in

final energy consumption, min. 14% renewables in transport by 2030 Binding EU-wide target

• f 32.5% increase in

energy efficiency by 2030, commitment to put energy efficiency first Set the course for free price formation throughout Europe to generate investment and create greater flexibility

EU reduced the need for fossil fuels by +10% in 2005- 2015 through renewable energy deployment Ensuring security of supply for gas and electricity

The Energy Union project aims at creating a common electricity and gas market in the EU

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Source: Ecofys based on European Commission 2017, BMWi 2016, BMWi 2017

Key dimensions

• f the Energy Union

Status

• f the Energy Union

Establishing an internal energy market By 2017, 30 out of 42 EU borders participated in day- ahead market coupling (electricity) Raising energy efficiency Collective efforts in 2015 were above linear trajectory to achieve energy efficiency target in primary energy consumption (20% increase by 2020). GHG emission reduction (20% decrease) target for 2020 already met (23% reduction achieved by 2016) 35% of global patents in renewables come from the EU Decarbonizing the economy Conducting energy research

The EU and Germany have set themselves mid- and long-term climate and energy targets

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Source: BMUB, European Commission

Germany EU Targets 2020 2030 2050 2020 2030 2050 GHG emissions Greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 levels (in all sectors)

• 40%
• 55%
• 80 to -95%
• 20%
• 40%
• 80 to -95%

Increase of the renewable energy share in energy consumption % gross final energy consumption 18% 30% 60% 20% 32% Reduction of energy consumption and increase in energy efficiency Primary energy consumption

• 20%

(vs. 2008)

• 50%

(vs. 2008) 20% (increase in energy efficiency

• vs. BAU)

32.5% (increase in energy efficiency

• vs. BAU)

The international energy transition is embedded in a multilateral framework

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Source: BMWi 2016

IREC: International Renewable Energy Conferences

The Energiewende forms part of an integrated European energy and climate strategy

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Source: BMWI. Ecofys and Edelman.ergo 2017

The monitoring process has been set up to track the energy transition on a continuous basis

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Source: BMWi 2017

Monitoring Report

Annual review of the status of implementation of the energy transition reforms Reviewed by an independent commission

• f experts

Progress Report

• n the energy transition

Published every three years Provides recommendations for future implementation

The Commission’s proposal is a framework, aiming to both allow for Germany meeting its climate targets as well as allow for a Just Transition

Expert commission recommended accompanying measures

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Source: Agora Energiewende 2019