Germany‘s Experiences Headline with the „Energiewende“ Nedbank and EE Publishers’ seminar “#EnergyTransition4.0 - A seminar on unlocking a just energy transition in South Africa “ Sandton, 7 May 2019 Rüdiger Lotz, Deputy Head of Mission, German Embassy Pretoria
The Energiewende combines security of supply, cost-effectiveness and environmental protection Environmentally sound Affordable and cost-effective Secure and reliable Source: BMWi 5/10/2019 | 2
The energy transition triad combines efficiency, direct use of renewables and sector coupling Direct use of Efficiency first Sector coupling renewables Source: BMWi 2017 5/10/2019 | 3
Germany is in a unique position to drive forward the transformation of the energy system in Europe Germany at a glance Electrical neighbours • Population: 82 million • Largest economy in Europe, 4th largest in the world • Gross electricity production Source: BMWi 2015, AGEB 2017, Statista 2017 2016: 648.4 TWh • Primary energy consumption 2016: 13,383 PJ 5/10/2019 | 4
The Energiewende is Germany’s long -term energy and climate strategy Achieved 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2017 55 -55 % greenhouse gas % greenhouse gas 27.6% -70 -80 to -95 80 to 95 70 Climate Climate 27.7% 40 -40 reduction (vs. 1990) reduction (vs. 1990) (2016) % gross electricity % gross electricity Source: Ecofys 2018 based on BMWi 2016, UBA 2018, AGEB 2018 80 80 36.2% 36% 65 50 55 to 60 65 consumption consumption 40 to 45 40 to 45 Renewable Renewable 35 35 Energy Energy % gross final energy % gross final energy 14.8% 14.8% 60 60 18 45 45 consumption consumption (2016) (2016) 30 18 30 Primary energy Primary energy -50 -20 -6.0% -6% -20 consumption (vs. 2008) consumption (vs. 2008) -50 Final energy productivity Final energy productivity 1.1% p.a. 1.1% p.a. +2.1% p.a. (2008-2050) +2.1% p.a. (2008-2050) (vs. 2008) (vs. 2008) (2016) (2016) . . Energy Energy Efficiency Efficiency Primary energy demand in Primary energy demand in -18.3% -15.9% -80 4,380 PJ -80 buildings (vs. 2008) buildings (vs. 2008) (2015) (2016) (2008) -15 to -20 Final energy consumption in Final energy consumption in +1.3% +4.2% -10 -40 -40 -15 to -20 transport (vs. 2005) transport (vs. 2005) (2016) (2015) -10 5/10/2019 | 5
Germany plans to complete its nuclear phase-out by 2022 and have a low-carbon economy by 2050 Source: Energiekonzept (2010) and Beschlüsse des Bundeskabinetts 2011 5/10/2019 | 6
The energy transition involves all levels of government, the business community and society Federal and state coordination Chancellor / Minister-Presidents of the Länder In charge of the Energiewende Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy Stakeholder Dialogue Energy Grids Electricity Market Energy Efficiency Buildings Research and Platform Platform Platform Platform Innovation Platform Source: BMWi 2017 Monitoring report “Energy of the Future” 5/10/2019 | 7
Tonnes of CO 2 per capita economies are still twice as high as those of China Per capita carbon emissions of some western 12 16 0 4 8 **Rest of Europa includes IS, NO, CH and the Balkans USA & Canada 4.9% Australia & South Pacific 0.4% Germany 1.1% EU28 (excl. Germany) 6.1% *excluding Russia and EU members Rest of Europe** 0.4% Russia 2.0% China 18.8% Middle East 4.7% Former Soviet Republics* 2.0% Latin America + Caribbean 5.9% Asia 16.6% Global average: 4.9 t CO 2 per capita Northern Africa 3.0% Brazil 2.8% Percentage of global population 5/10/2019 | 8 India 17.9% Sub-Saharan Africa 12.9% Source: Ecofys 2017, data from EDGAR (2016) and World Bank (2016)
Additional climate protection measures needed to close mitigation gap in 2020 and 2030 Source: Navigant (2019) based on BMU (2018), BMWi (2018) and BMWi and BMU (2010). Development of greenhouse gas emissions 1990 to 2035: Actual emissions by 2017 and projected emissions 1400 [million tons of CO2 equivalent] 1200 2020: projection vs. target 2030: projection vs. target 1000 806 751 (-36%) 682 (-40%) 800 (-46%) 563.4 (-55%) 600 400 200 0 1990 2015 2016 2017* 2020 2020 2025 2030 2030 2035 targets energy industry agriculture industry commerce/trade/services transportation households waste & wastewater *preliminary values 5/10/2019 | 9
The Energiewende enjoys wide support within the German population 3% Yes Do you support the 8% 75% - The Energiewende is a joint task to which everyone in Energiewende? society must contribute Source: Ecofys based on IASS 2017 Social Sustainability Barometer, KfW 14% - I think that the Energiewende is a good thing, but I cannot or do not want to contribute much to it No 89% I don’t know Participation of German households in Energiewende technologies (in %) planned 4 Energiewendebarometer 2018 stock 5 16 3 3 10 8 8 4 4 2 2 2 1 solar thermal solar PV heat pump financial electric battery CHP participation vehicle (storage) installation in RE installation 5/10/2019 | 10
The German Commission on „Growth, Structural Change and Employment“ In June 2018, the German government mandated the Commission „Growth, Structural change and Employment“ to solve the ongoing political conflict around the future role of coal Source: Agora Energiewende 2019 5/10/2019 | Speaker | 11
The German Commission on „Growth, Structural Change and Employment“ The commission was staffed with 31 members rather representing social, economic and environmental interests than scientific expertise Source: Agora Energiewende 2019 5/10/2019 | Speaker | 12
Expert commission appointed by the German government recommended coal phase-out by 2038 Coal power plants in Germany Expected development of coal generation capacity Source: Navigant 2019 based on Kommission WSB 2019 and DIW/Wuppertal GW 2022 2016 2030 2038 60 Coal Coal Security Coal capacity capacity reserve phase reduced to reduced to out 30 GW 17 GW 40 2.9 GW 5.9 GW 9.1 GW 20 Institut/Ecologic 2018 2000 2020 2030 2040 Hard coal Lignite By 2020: decommissioning / transition to security reserve 5/10/2019 | 13
Decarbonising our energy systems leads to an increased electrification of all sectors Source: BMWi 5/10/2019 | 14
Summary and Outlook Germany is very active in sharing its experiences with other countries to learn 1. from the good but also still improvable experiences with the Energiewende. The German „Energiewende” shows that it is possible for an industrialized 2. country to transform its entire power and also energy sector sustainably. Even with 38% share of renewables in the power sector, the lights in Germany 3. did not go out and – for the last years – electricity costs remain stable and affordable. The Energiewende has positive effects on job creation, innovation and other 4. macroeconomic aspects. Germany has made progress but more action is needed to achieve German 5. climate mitigation targets. Germany now ventures into a “just” coal exit by 2038 taking all stakeholders 6. and groups of society with it. 5/10/2019 | Speaker | 15
Headline Thank you for your attention 5/10/2019 | Speaker | 16
Implementation of the Energiewende follows a defined strategy Source: BMWi 2018 5/10/2019 | 17
The Energiewende forms part of an integrated European energy and climate strategy Source: BMWI. Ecofys and Edelman.ergo 2017 5/10/2019 | 18
Renewables reduce dependence on energy imports renewables (RES) 100 100 % of total final energy consumption (RES target) lignite 90 90 domestic production hard coal 80 80 % of total primary energy supply gas 70 70 oil 60 60 other Source: Ecofys 2017 based on AGEB 2012, AGEB 2014 50 50 oil imports Dependence on imports 40 40 gas imports 30 30 hard coal imports 60% RES target 20 20 (final energy) nuclear 10 10 RES target - 0 (final energy, 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 right axis) 5/10/2019 | 19
The EU’s “winter package” aims at deepening European integration in the field of energy Source: Ecoys based on European Commission 2018, BMWi 2016, BMWi 2017 Governance Revision of the Revision of the Electricity market Regulation Renewable Energy Energy Efficiency design Directive Directive Each Member State is Binding EU-wide target Binding EU-wide target Set the course for free required to present a of 30% renewables in of 32.5% increase in price formation national energy and final energy energy efficiency by throughout Europe to climate action plan for consumption, min. 2030, commitment generate investment 2021-2030 14% renewables in to put energy and create greater transport by 2030 efficiency first flexibility 5/10/2019 | 20
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