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Presented to Farm Foundation Forum 9 April 2013 By Gary Blumenthal, WPI
Geopolitical Uncertainty in Agriculture and Energy Markets - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Geopolitical Uncertainty in Agriculture and Energy Markets - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Geopolitical Uncertainty in Agriculture and Energy Markets Presented to Farm Foundation Forum 9 April 2013 By Gary Blumenthal, WPI FAO: COUNTRIES IN CRISIS REQUIRING EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE Somalia Conflict Eritrea Conflict Liberia
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FAO: COUNTRIES IN CRISIS REQUIRING EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE
Somalia Conflict Eritrea Conflict Liberia Conflict Sierra Leone Conflict Burundi Conflict Central African Republic Conflict Chad Conflict Congo, Democratic Republic of Conflict Côte d'I voire Conflict Sudan Conflict Uganda Conflict I raq Conflict Afghanistan Conflict Nepal Conflict Sri Lanka Conflict Russian Federation (Chechnya) Conflict Zimbabwe Governance Ethiopia Governance Congo, Republic of Governance Guinea Governance Guinea-Bissau Governance Korea, Dem. People's Rep. of Governance Timor-Leste Multiple Lesotho Social Swaziland Social Mauritania Weather Ghana Weather Bangladesh Weather I ndonesia Weather Pakistan Weather Dominica Weather Jamaica Weather
- St. Lucia
Weather Dominican Republic Weather Haiti Weather Nicaragua Weather Moldova Weather
60% are due in part or whole to conflict and/or governance issues.
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“The Ukraine is known as the breadbasket of Europe, so wheat prices in the region will be negatively impacted by any further deterioration in the geopolitical situation over there.” Hilary Walsh Finance and Trade Manager Euromonitor International
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Cry mea River
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2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000
1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 KMT
Sources: USDA/FAS, ERS, Various
Military Junta Peronism Falkland's War Military Junta Democracy Hyper-inflation Neoliberalism Recession Economic Crisis Kirchner Era
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1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 KMT
Source: USDA/FAS
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500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500
2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 KMT
Source: USDA/FAS
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500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
1980/1981 1981/1982 1982/1983 1983/1984 1984/1985 1985/1986 1986/1987 1987/1988 1988/1989 1989/1990 1990/1991 1991/1992 1992/1993 1993/1994 1994/1995 1995/1996 1996/1997 1997/1998 1998/1999 1999/2000 2000/2001 2001/2002 2002/2003 2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010
KMT
Sources: USDA/FAS; Various
Iran - Iraq War Operation Iraqi Freedom G u l f W a r D e s e r t F
- x
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5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 KMT
Source: USDA/FAS; Various
Orange Revolution
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“ADM’s Ukraine operations haven’t been affected by Russian annexation of Crimea.” Juan Luciano President and CEO ADM at FT Commodities Global Summit April 1, 2014
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500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Thousand Barrels/Day Source: EIA
Iraq Oil Production
Iran - Iraq War G u l f W a r D e s e r t F
- x
Operation Iraqi Freedom
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200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Thousand Barrels/Day Source: EIA
Libya Oil Production
I n t e r v e n t i
- n
Chadian Conflict
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500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Thousand Barrels/Day Source: EIA
Iran Oil Production
Iran - Iraq War S a n c t i
- n
s
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Rule of Four Countries at Risk
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