Geo-Science and Engineering Needs in the Energy Sector J. Carlos - - PDF document

4/10/2017 1

Geo-Science and Engineering Needs in the Energy Sector

• J. Carlos Santamarina

KAUST

Munib and Angela Masri Institute of Energy and Natural Resources American University of Beirut – April 2017

Social Media (2017)

BP - Biofuels

American Petroleum Institute – Super Bowl

Exxonmobil – Biofuels Committed to better energy Shell – ECO-marathon

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Explosion: 4/20/10 (@10 pm) Deepwater Horizon Sinks: 4/22/10 (~10 am) Oil slick: 5/6/10

News Energy = Tera-Problem Energy Geo-Science & Engineering Contents

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Usage

TOTAL: 97.5 Quads Read numbers as ~ % LLNL: flowcharts.llnl.gov 2015

Usage

86% Fossil fuels

TOTAL: 97.5 Quads Read numbers as ~ % LLNL: flowcharts.llnl.gov 2015

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Usage

TOTAL: 97.5 Quads Read numbers as ~ % LLNL: flowcharts.llnl.gov 2015

Transition from C-economy to renewables: will be C-fueled !

Usage

TOTAL: 97.5 Quads Read numbers as ~ % LLNL: flowcharts.llnl.gov 2015

Phase-out nuclear? Not yet… But: Waste? Onshore reserves? Risks?

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Usage

TOTAL: 97.5 Quads Read numbers as ~ % LLNL: flowcharts.llnl.gov 2015

Transportation: Oil-based, and most inefficient!

Usage

TOTAL: 97.5 Quads Read numbers as ~ % LLNL: flowcharts.llnl.gov 2015

Efficiency AND conservation

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Sources: Trends

EIA 2015 Note: ~ BP ~ MIT ~ OPEC Renewables: biomass, hydro, solar, wind

Fossil fuels - Projection: decreased % of total … but, increased consumption

Consumption - Worldwide

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0.01 0.1 1 10 100

• Cum. Power Consumption

Power consumption [kW/pers]

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Consumption - Worldwide

Pronounced differences worldwide

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0.01 0.1 1 10 100

• Cum. Power Consumption

Power consumption [kW/pers]

2000 cal 1000 times

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0.01 0.1 1 10 100

• Cum. Power Consumption

Power consumption [kW/pers]

India China Germany Japan Rusia USA Canada

Consumption - Worldwide

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0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0.01 0.1 1 10 100

• Cum. Power Consumption

Power consumption [kW/pers]

KSA Kuwait UAE Bahrain Qatar Oman

Consumption - Worldwide

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0.01 0.1 1 10 100

• Cum. Power Consumption

Power consumption [kW/pers] 16% Population 56% Energy

Consumption - Worldwide

5 84% Population 44% Energy

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“>5 spenders”: Efficiency + Conservation … But will we do with savings ?!

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0.01 0.1 1 10 100

• Cum. Power Consumption

Power consumption [kW/pers] 5

Savings= 1.8 T$ (2016) 2.5 T$ (2040)

Consumption - Worldwide Consumption - Worldwide

Sustainable energy system

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0.01 0.1 1 10 100

• Cum. Power Consumption

Power consumption [kW/pers]

2000 cal

sustainable energy system

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Population Growth: 20,000,000 per year

• 2
• 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000

Power [W / Person] Population Growth [%/yr]

countries > 4,000,000

Data: CIA, UN

Reproductive choices  future energy demands & individual’s C-footprint

Population Growth

Match: Solar! Distributed – Correlated with growing needs – Grid-independent ±

Human Development Index Migration Insolation

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Oil Reserves Big consumers … low producers

Mismatch: Conflicts and migration – 14 M refugees – 1.8 T$/yr military expenditure

Strategies: 2040 Horizon

Conservation = reduce overspending Leapfrog-Tech Good governance

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12M people 12,000 km2 1000 p/km2 6M people 22,000 km2 250 p/km2

Modern Cities & Infrastructure = Cheap Fossil Fuels

Paris Atlanta

Revolution in transportation … the technology is available 2013 Volkswagen 100 km/l 2017 Chevrolet Bolt 50 km/l 2016 Chevrolet Volt (2nd generation) 45 km/l 2015 BMW i3 51 km/l

Transportation Revolution

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Hydroelectric H=100m 0.001 Coal 23 Oil ~ gasoline 45 Hydrogen 140 Uranium (effective) 900,000

Energy Density

[MJ/kg] Fossil fuels: very compact engineering NOTE: 1.0 lt of gasoline = 10 m2 of solar panels for 1 day Energy Plant Type Lifetime Cost ¢ / kWh Offshore Wind 20.0 Coal & CCS 14.4 PV Solar 12.5 Gas & CCS 10.0 Nuclear 9.5 Coal 9.5 Hydro-electric 8.4 Gas 7.5 Land Based Wind 7.4

Real-cost Pricing

Real-cost pricing  proper techno-economical optimization

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Summary: TERA-problem

Tera-dollars 100’s T$ infrastructure (optimized for cheap oil) 77 T$ global GDP 2014 >1 T$ for CCS 2.5 T$ savings “>5 spenders” 1.8 T$ military expenditure 6.6 T$ cost to Miami due to climate change Tera-watt 17 TW power consumption 8 TW increased demand 2040 Tera-kg 20 Tkg CO2 emitted

1012

Global: Reduce differences in Pcons & QL Governments QL and Pcons  Real-cost pricing  techno-$ optimization Developed Efficiency + Conservation (start with transport) Nations: Save > 1.8 T$/year with today’s technology How would affluent societies use savings? Developing Increase quality of life Nations: Leapfrog technology Most benefit from solar Energy Complex … Difficult choices … Urgency transition: Fueled by fossil fuels !

Summary: Sustainable Energy System

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Energy = Tera-Problem Energy Geo-Science & Engineering Contents

1 By 4.5 B 2 By 3 By 4 By 2000 yr

• 2000 yr
• 4000 yr
• 6000 yr

Time Scales

Fossil Fuels = >400My solar energy … consumed in <400yr

magnification: 2x106 3.5 BYA: bacteria 2.5 BYA: O2 atmosph 1.5 BYA: plants 230-65 MYA: dinosaurs coal & petrol

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earth radius: 6371 km atmosphere: 80% within 10 km

Length Scales

google_earth

FOSSIL FUELS (C-based) RENEWABLE

Oil Gas Coal GeoT Hydro Wind Solar BioF

Nuclear Site Characterization Properties of Geomaterials Reservoir Monitoring & Management Infrastructure Design

Build, Retrofit, Decommission

Geo-Storage

Energy & Waste

Geo-Environmental Remediation Efficiency and Conservation

Energy Geo-Science and Engineering

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COAL

26% energy worldwide

Origen

Sedimentary rock made of carbon ‐ Forms seams or beds Recovery: shaft & underground mines or open pit

Reserves

World: 1012 ton (China, USA, Pakistan, Russia, India, Australia)

Consumption

Electric power generation World: 8x109 ton/yr (China, USA, India)

Energetics

Energy density: 24 MJ/kg (Most efficient plant: 49%) Emitted CO2= 0.96 kg/kW.h

Geo‐Science & Engineering

Characterization: Stratigraphy. Faulting. Properties. Gas Mine design and operation: roof stability Optimal extraction strategies & material handling Coal combustion products: Fly ash (USA: 130106 tons/year) Abandonment: Re‐use. Reclamation. Backfill Environmental impact: acid mine drainage, methane release Monitoring active and abandoned mines

Coal Ash Contamination

Contaminated Site Spill Contaminated & Spill

http://earthjustice.org

>130106 ton/yr >1,000 operating ash landfills 100s "retired" disposal sites

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TVA Kingston Plant (22 December 2008)

34 ha, up to 22 m high ash disposal cell  ~2.106 m3 released

OIL

34% energy worldwide

Origin

Accumulation of organic matter in sedimentary basins Maturation (P&T in “oil window”) Migration: source to reservoir (geoplumbing and traps)

Reserves

World: 1.5x1012 barrels Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait

Consumption

World: 3.2x1010 barrels/yr  Primarely: transportation USA, EU, China, Japan, India

Energetics

Energy density: 46 MJ/kg (effective: ~15 MJ/kg) Emitted CO2 at power plants: 0.88 kg/kW.h

New reservoirs & challenges

Locations: Deep (HT&HP). Arctic regions Formations: weak, fractured, compressible, beneath salt Very viscous or immobile oils (oil sands and oil shales)

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OIL

34% energy worldwide Geo‐Science & Engineering Characterization: Geo‐pluming, subsalt, u, ’, T Physical properties: permeability … and all others Drilling, completion, leaks, zonal isolation Production: inherently mixed fluid flow (water, oil, gas) Fines migration and clogging … asphaltenes Reservoir stimulation: HF, acid, steam, “smart water” Subsidence, fault reactivation, casing buckling/shear Monitoring: deformations, microseismicity, fluid pressure. Infrastructure (onshore and offshore) Waste reinjection (fluids and grains)

Foraminifera – Globigerinoides (Globigerinina) www.slb.com

Carbonates: 60% of Worldwide Reserves

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GAS 21% energy worldwide

Location

In traps, shale gas, coal beds, gas hydrate Thermogenic: P&T above the “oil window” Biogenic: methanogens (high purity CH4 in hydrate)

Reserves

World recoverable: >2001012 m3 + Gas hydrates …? Russia, Iran, Qatar, Turkmenistan, USA

Consumption

World: 3.31012 m3/yr USA, Russia, EU

Energetics

Energy density: 45 MJ/kg of gas Hydrates: 5.9 MJ/kg of hydrate Emitted CO2: 0.5 kg/kW.h

GAS 21% energy worldwide

Geo‐Science & Engineering

Common Characterization: stratigraphy, geo‐plumbing, properties Well drilling (horizontal) and completion Monitoring: Deformations, microseismicity, u, T Integration of monitoring data into reservoir management Infrastructure Waste management (HF fluids, cuttings, produced fines) Shale gas Fracking: water demand (>107 liters of water per well) Evolution of fractures in pre‐structured shales Early drop in production CH4 leakage (may reach 8% of the produced gas) Hydrates Hydrate nucleation and growth in sediments Production: P T CO2CH4 surface mining Subsidence, casing‐sediment interaction Environmental hazard: seafloor stability and gas release

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Shales – Hydraulic Fracture

Don Duggan-Haas

Marcellus shale outcrop

Robert M. Reed (Bureau of Economic Geology)

Stimulation: HF Pre-structured Media

Roshankhah 2015 0.7

• 0.7

p/zo C L

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uni-mki.gwdg.de

Gas in Hydrates

Nankai Trough - March 2013

CO2 GEOSTORAGE

Situation

Anthropogenic CO2 emissions: 33 1012 t/yr Current CO2 atmosphere ~400 ppm. Increase: 2ppm/yr Severe consequences 550 ppm (IPCC, 2000) No low cost & scalable technology to capture CO2 More than 50 CO2 geostorage pilot projects worldwide CO2 injection: common practice in petroleum production

Geostorage

Supercritical: saline aquifers, oil & gas reservoirs, coal seams Liquid CO2: pools in deep ocean (> 3000 m) CO2 Hydrate: deep ocean, CO2CH4 Chemically: carbonation, natural (trees, algae), coal/ shale

Geo‐Science & Engineering

Identification and characterization: formations & seal Porosity & dpore (injectability‐trapping tradeoff) Long‐term response ~10,000 yr (formation, grouts, plugs) Engineered injection: fingering, storativity, leakage Coupled HCM: mixed fluids, acidification, dissolution Monitoring: plume tracking, leak detection, deformation, P&T Sealing strategies

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C Geo-storage: HQM Coupling

diffusion

Q

capillarity pH  dissolution contraction ko  shear

CO2 Brine

buoyancy advection convection capillarity

HR

tensile fracture ‐fingering

HCO2 Caprock

Costly CO2 capture … uncertain long-term geo-storage

200ms 2.5km

Geo-Plumbing: Leak

Norway (Lawrence, 2010)

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NUCLEAR 6% energy worldwide

Uranium

In minerals (mined when >1000 ppm. In seawater (3 ppb)

235U half‐life: 7 108 years

Energetics

Energy density: 83 106 MJ/kg (effective: 0.9 105 MJ /kg)

Reserves

In minerals: 5 106 tons. In seawater: 4 109 tons Annual production: 5.5 104 tons Kazakhstan, Canada, Australia, Namibia, Niger, Russia

Context

Nuclear power plants in operation: 437 No nuclear waste repository in operation Critical time for waste fuel storage: ~100 years Design horizon: 10,000 yr to 1,000,000 yr

Commercial accidents

Three Mile Island 1979, Chernobyl 1986, Fukushima 2011. Minor: more common (e.g., leaks from spent fuel pools)

NUCLEAR 6% energy worldwide

Geo‐Science & Engineering

Common Characterization, baseline conditions, properties Monitoring: Thermal field, leaks, long‐term monitoring Monitoring integration into optimization/reliability strategy Mining Excavation Handling of tailings Infrastructure Static, seismic, natural hazards Heat absorption/release (new generation reactors) Design for life‐cycle and for decommissioning Flooding protection and mitigation Regional and local subsidence Remediation Waste storage Salt, hard rock, or clay Self‐healing, HTCBM constraints, stability, retention HTCBM: understanding, properties, and modeling Design for retrievability

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GEOTHERMAL

0.2‐to‐0.3% of all energy consumed

Types

Shallow (<0.1 km): subsurface thermal capacitance Hydrothermal (inter depth): Volcanic / tectonic regions Deep geothermal (~3‐5 km, 150C<T< 350C): steam

Resource

98% of the earth: T> 1000C Average heat flux: ~0.08W/m2 Potential: 4 TW of electricity 4 TW for heating Installed: 12 GW of electricity 30 GW for heating

Geo‐Science & Engineering

Shallow GSHP Characterization: T, kT, c, groundwater Coupled HTCM processes (e.g., repetitive TM ratcheting) Engineering: backfill for heat storage and exchange Optimal operation Deep ‐ EGS Characterization: fractures & geoplumbing Rock properties @ HT (400C) & HP (100 MPa) Drilling, casing stability Reservoir engineering: HF, spacing Coupled HTCM processes – Dissolution/precipitation Monitoring & management

BIO FUELS 9.8% energy worldwide; >90% of heat from renewables

Sources

Combustible renewables: sugar beet, corn, wood, biogen gas Collateral: land & water use, effect on food supply Waste is not necessarily carbon neutral

Energetics

Various bio‐mass sources Municipal solid waste eV 155 MJ/kg Paper, cardboard Plastic eV= 3010 MJ/kg

Geo‐Science & Engineering

Landfills: Spatial & time‐varying physical properties Liners (clays, geotextiles). Coupled THCBM processes. Volume change during decomposition, subsidence Monitoring: deformations, P&T, gas, leachate Agriculture: Unsaturated, coupled THCBM processes Root‐soil interaction Erosion control. Desertification. Geomechanical tool optimization, tire‐soil interaction Monitoring (local, remote)

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HYDROELECTRIC 2.2% energy (14% of global electricity)

Resources Dams (current and planned): all producible capacity Installed: 400 GW (China, Canada, Brazil, USA) Hydroelectric power plants: some exceed 10 GW Geo‐Science & Engineering Dams Site: fractures, relic channels, abutment stability Classical: piping, dispersion, toe instability, filters, frozen ground,

• vertopping, differential settlement, uplift, seepage, intelligent

compaction, dissolution, dynamic response

Reservoir sedimentation and capacity loss Maintenance & retrofit: sedimentation, erosion, leaks Tidal Site: stratigraphy, erodability and mass transport Underwater turbines, floating and fixed systems: Anchoring in soft marine clays High drag, cavitation, scour Repetitive dynamic loads Both Monitoring: deformations, fluid pressure, leaks Integration of monitoring into resource management

WIND

<1% % energy worldwide (~2.5% of electricity)

Production

Wind turbines: < 150m diameter, < 8MW Wind farms: some exceed 1GW

Extractable

Worldwide: > total energy consumption (~17 TW)

In place

Worldwide: installed 450 GW (produced 50 GW) USA: installed 66 GW (produced 13 GW)

Energetics

Wind power P Area A Air mass density  Wind speed v

Geo‐Science & Engineering

Onshore and offshore foundations (design, installation) Characterization, material properties Response to repetitive loads (ratcheting, terminal densities) Constitutive models Numerical simulators Monitoring short and long term performance Energy storage

3

2 1 v A P  

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SOLAR

<1% % energy worldwide *

Solar power

Insolation: 150‐to‐300 W/m2 (primarily between the tropics) Total earth insolation: 6500 total energy consumption

Harnessing

Heating Bio‐photosynthesis Photovoltaics (power stations can exceed 200 MW) Concentrated solar power plants (10 MW units)

Geo‐Science & Engineering

Solar panels (1‐to‐3m above ground) Loads: low ‐ consider uplift Key: low cost & high installation rate (fin or helical piles) Concentrated solar power (Towers  large moments) Geo‐storage Hybrid solar‐thermal (HTM coupling) Sub‐surface & solar ponds (pools of saltwater)

ENERGY STORAGE

Need Satisfy peaks Optimize plant/system operation Accommodate intermittent renewable sources Methods (scales) National/commercial: chemical (caverns, aquifers, reservoirs) Urban: pumped hydro, CAES, molten salt Residential: distributed thermal energy storage Volume Given: energy density eV [J/m3] stored energy E [J] or delivered power P [W] and duration t [s] Chemical Hydrogen (at 20 MPa) Methane (at 20 MPa) Gasoline H2: CH4: gasoline: eV= 1,600 MJ/m3 eV= 7,600 MJ/m3 eV=40,000 MJ/m3 Pumped Hydro Fluid unit weight γ [kN/m3] at elevation ΔH [m]

water @ΔH=100m

eV = 1 MJ/m3 Compressed Air Cycle’s min&max press. Pmin and Pmax [kPa].

Pmin=4 MPa & Pmax=7 MPa

eV = 4 MJ/m3

V V

e t P e E V    H eV    

        

min max max V

P P ln P e

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ENERGY STORAGE

Thermal Sensible heat: density ρ [kg/m3] heat cap. Cp [kJ/(kg.°C)]

water ΔT=10°C

eV = 42 MJ/m3 Latent heat: L [kJ/kg] mass density ρ [kg/m3]

icewater

eV = 305 MJ/m3 Geo‐Science & Engineering Characterization: Stratigraphy, geo‐pluming Material response to PT‐RH‐’ cycles Proofing existent volumes for storage Design for coupled HTCM processes. Monitoring ‐ Integration into reservoir management Leak monitoring and repair

T C e

p V

    

   L eV

CONSERVATION AND EFFICIENCY

General Conservation: developed nations with overconsumption Efficiency complements conservation Embodied energy parallels embodied CO2 Portland cement  embodied CO2 in infrastructure High inefficiency: Crushing (2‐to‐5%) Biomimetics Biological processes: optimal development Soils excavation: machine >> hand >> ants Roots: self‐adaptive, self‐sensing, self‐healing Geo‐Science & Engineering Efficient use of natural resources (e.g., aggregates) Reduced volume extraction Avoid materials with high embodied energy (concrete & steel) Energy efficiency construction practices Energy return on investment EROI (considers all invested energy) Waste recycling/reutilization: engineering waste reuse for long‐ term performance Observational approach: monitoring as an integral component of energy efficient design and construction practice

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Efficiency

Nature: adaptation towards energy optimization

Efficiency: Rock Crushing

Grain-grain interaction Elasto-thermal within particles

Ein

13 % 1 % 2 % 37% 47 %

Embodied Energy

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Geotech: Back to Basics…

Fluid-Mineral: HTCM Flow-controlling fraction Load-carrying fraction

• e

e k k           

              

' e e e e

u ’ e k 100 200 300 Effective stress [kPa]

N=104

Repetitive THCM loads Physics-inspired models

• 1. Energy = Tera-Problem

Difficult decisions Urgency

• 2. Energy Geo-Science and Engineering

Central role Back to basics: Physics-inspired

Closing

4/10/2017 31

Thank you

Current & past team members Special thanks:

Rached Rached

• Dr. Nesreene Ghaddar

Munib and Angela Masri Institute of Energy and Natural Resources

References

Terzaghi Lecture: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQGdw_-mOyc Papers: https://egel.kaust.edu.sa/Pages/Publications.aspx World situation: https://egel.kaust.edu.sa/Documents/Papers/Pasten_2012a.pdf https://egel.kaust.edu.sa/Documents/Papers/Santamarina_2006www.pdf