FY-2016 Results Operating performance and progression of Fit to Win in line with plan, confirming our ambition to become the most agile global credit insurer in the industry Presentation to financial analysts February 8 th , 2017
Today’s agenda 1 Key business highlights for FY-2016 2 FY-2016 results 3 Capital management 4 Fit to Win update 5 Key take-aways & outlook / Financial analysts presentation FY-2016 Results - February 8th 2017 2
1 Key business highlights for FY-2016
‘16 operating results in line with guidance FY-2016 financial highlights (1/2) • Operating trends evolving in line with guidance Turnover in line with previous trends, at €1,411m down (3.6)% vs. ‘15 (ex. FX) Net loss ratio in target range at 65.5% Net cost ratio: 31.9% ; keeping tight control on expenses • Net income (group share) FY ‘16 at € 41.5m Includes € 36.5m French State guarantees and Fit to Win one-offs 1 • State export guarantees management transfer finalized € 75m one-off gain before tax Teams (~250 FTEs) and IT systems transferred as from Jan. 2 nd ‘17 • Fit to Win launched and progressing in line with expectations Launched risk and cost actions as per schedule Work councils consultations well underway First benefits materializing Took first step of capital optimization, with quota-share cession increased to 26% ( vs. 20% in ‘16) 1 € 75.0m gain on French State export guarantees management transfer, € 38.6m restructuring expenses, € 14.1m of social benefits reserves releases and € 5.1m linked to actuarial rates change, totalling € 55.6m before tax (see Note 30 of the FY 2016 financial statements); After tax (tax rate of 34.43% applied), contribution of these elements to FY-2016 net income (group share) is € 36.5m / Financial analysts presentation FY-2016 Results - February 8th 2017 4
‘16 operating results in line with guidance FY-2016 financial highlights (2/2) • Solvency ratio in target range at c.150% 1 • Proposed dividend: € 0.13 per share 2 € 0.07 normal, 62% of adjusted EPS 3 € 0.06 special in line with pre-announcement 1 Estimated coverage ratio calculated according to Coface’s interpretation of Solvency II standard formula. Non audited 2 The distribution of € 0.07 normal dividend and € 0.06 special dividend are subject to the approval of the General Assembly that takes place on May 17th 2017 3 To calculate adjusted earnings, the following elements have been excluded: € 75.0m gain on State export guarantees management transfer and € 38.6m restructuring expenses, totaling 36.3m € before tax (see Note 30 of the FY 2016 financial statements); After tax (tax rate of 34.43% applied), the contribution of these elements to FY-2016 net income (group share) amounts € 23.8m / Financial analysts presentation FY-2016 Results - February 8th 2017 5
2 FY-2016 Results
Turnover driven by soft conditions and risk actions (5.3)% (3.6)% In € m 1,490 1,411 Continuous trends all through ‘16 ► Premiums impacted by weaker client activity and persisting Gross Earned Premiums 1,186 soft conditions in mature markets 1,115 (GEP) ► Effect of risk measures in emerging markets Insurance related fees 136 135 Other revenues 168 161 ► Other revenues impacted by lower State export guarantees FY-15 FY-16 management fees ► Fees/GEP ratio up by 0.6pt 12.1% 11.4% Fees / GEP ratio FY-15 FY-16 V% V% ex. FX / Financial analysts presentation FY-2016 Results - February 8th 2017 7
Contrasted regional performances Western Europe Northern Europe Central Europe Mediterranean & Africa (10.0)% (8.4)% (5.3)% (5.3)% (3.2)% (1.1)% (2.5)% (1.3)% 363 327 325 340 332 307 125 121 FY-15 FY16 FY-15 FY16 FY-15 FY16 FY-15 FY16 Good commercial momentum in Italy Price continues to be under pressure Services revenues down (debt coll. fees), reflecting benign loss activity and competition driven by low claims level Premium refunds in Spain driving revenues down North America Asia Pacific Latin America 3.7% 4.0% (9.5)% (10.9)% (6.9)% 9.0% 131 136 121 110 83 78 FY-15 FY16 FY-15 FY16 FY-15 FY16 Revenues impacted by portfolio Growth driven by some global clients Some positive re-pricing adjustments Revenues by region, in € m V% V% ex. FX Note: For comparison purposes, published 2015 data has been restated to take into account the following / changes in scope: Spain and Portugal moved to Mediterranean and Africa (vs. Western Europe) Financial analysts presentation FY-2016 Results - February 8th 2017 8 and Russia moved to Central Europe (vs. Northern Europe)
Commercial performance reflects continued market trend New production 1 156 141 143 139 Stable new production outside of Asia FY-2013 FY-2014 FY-2015 FY-2016 88.9% 88.5% 87.6% 87.7% Retention rate 1 Overall retention rate remains close to record levels, improves slightly vs. ‘15 FY-2013 FY-2014 FY-2015 FY-2016 0.3% Price effect 1 Price erosion slowing down vs. ‘15, (1.1)% driven by re-pricing actions in LatAm (1.7)% (2.5)% FY-2013 FY-2014 FY-2015 FY-2016 3.2% Volume effect 1 Slower growth of client activity, 2.5% 2.0% with strong decrease in some sectors (metals, commodities …). 0.8% Some improvement towards the end of the year FY-2013 FY-2014 FY-2015 FY-2016 1 Portfolio as of 31 December 2016; and at constant FX and perimeter / Financial analysts presentation FY-2016 Results - February 8th 2017 9
Risk actions plans impact materializing Loss ratio before reinsurance and including claims handling expenses, in % Loss ratio before reinsurance and including claims handling expenses, in % Effects of risk reduction measures taken throughout 2015-2016 appear gradually 70.1 67.6 61.8 54.0 63.3 51.4 ► FY-16 loss ratio impacted by higher claims 51.0 in emerging markets ► Q4-16 loss ratio decreasing but still at elevated level Q4-2015 Q1-2016 Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 FY-2015 FY-2016 Loss ratio before reinsurance and excluding claims handling expense, in % (9.0) (28.2) (24.1) (21.4) (27.2) ► Lower run-off from prior underwriting year (uwy) 77.4 linked to loss development in emerging markets 72.6 72.5 70.2 70.0 61.0 49.2 48.8 (uwy ‘14 and ’15) 48.4 45.3 Current underwriting year All underwriting years Prior underwriting years / Financial analysts presentation FY-2016 Results - February 8th 2017 10
Loss ratio: Asia remains at very high levels, LatAm shows signs of improvement Loss ratio before reinsurance, including claims handling expenses – in % 10%* 8%* 5%* North America Group Asia Pacific Latin America 146.8 113.4 100.6 105.2 85.0 63.3 56.3 51.1 51.0 60.2 59.9 47.6 51.4 24.1 26.0 19.3 FY-2013 FY-2014 FY-2015 FY-2016 FY-2013 FY-2014 FY-2015 FY-2016 FY-2013 FY-2014 FY-2015 FY-2016 FY-2013 FY-2014 FY-2015 FY-2016 22%* 23%* 23%* 9%* Mediterranean & Africa Central Europe Western Europe Northern Europe 65.0 64.5 60.5 58.5 57.4 54.5 54.7 50.3 49.7 49.8 39.8 38.9 38.5 33.2 32.6 31.9 FY-2013 FY-2014 FY-2015 FY-2016 FY-2013 FY-2014 FY-2015 FY-2016 FY-2013 FY-2014 FY-2015 FY-2016 FY-2013 FY-2014 FY-2015 FY-2016 * % of Total turnover by region / Financial analysts presentation FY-2016 Results - February 8th 2017 11 Note: For comparison purposes, published 2015 data has been restated to take into account the following changes in scope: Spain and Portugal moved to Mediterranean and Africa (vs. Western Europe) and Russia moved to Central Europe (vs. Northern Europe)
Costs under control, Fit to Win launched Year-on-year evolution percentages mentioned below exclude FX effects Continuous control of expenses In € m (2.0)% (0.6)% 713 699 ► Year-to-date total expenses down (0.6)% External acquisition 162 (3.8)% 153 costs (commissions) External acquisition costs down (3.8)% ► Keeping tight control on expenses outside of the Fit to Win 551 Internal costs 545 investments areas ( € 2.1m set-up costs in Q4) FY-2015 FY-2016 ► Year-to-date cost ratio before reinsurance up 1.6pts, driven by lower revenues (0.8)% 0.2% In € m 178 178 176 172 172 External acquisition 39 43 36 39 39 33.2 +1.6 costs (commissions) (0.6) 31.5 Of which +0.6 € 2.1 Fit to Win Internal costs 139 136 137 135 133 set-up up costs in Q4 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Expenses State GEP and FY-2015 FY-2016 decrease Guarantees other Cost ratio 34.1 32.1 32.5 33.5 34.6 revenues revenues before reinsurance, decrease decrease in % Cost ratio before reinsurance, in % V% V% ex. FX / Financial analysts presentation FY-2016 Results - February 8th 2017 12
Reinsurance absorbs part of the loss ratio volatility FY-2015 FY-2016 In € m Gross earned premiums 1,185.9 1,115.1 Net earned premiums 920.2 857.6 23.1% 22.4% ► Increased ceded premiums driven by additional Premium cession rate 22.4% 23.1% non proportional cover purchased in ‘ 16 1 2 Gross claims expenses - 605.3 - 705.7 Net claims expenses - 483.5 - 561.5 20.1% 20.4% Claims cession rate 20.1% 20.4% 1 2 FY-2015 FY-2016 V% In € m Underwriting income before reinsurance (84)% 194.8 30.4 Reinsurance result - 51.4 - 17.6 (66)% (17.6) (51.4) Underwriting income after reinsurance (91)% 143.4 12.8 / Financial analysts presentation FY-2016 Results - February 8th 2017 13
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