You better be prepared for the future Willem van Deursen Carthago Consultancy Deltares 11 March 2016 Climate Change Research Institute seminar Victoria University of Wellington
Outline • Interview Dirk Kuyt • Lessons of Dirk Kuyt • Adaptation Policy Circle • Sustainable Delta Game • Pathways generator • Integrated Assessment Models
You better be prepared
You better be prepared
Dirk Kuyt: • Thats the good thing about this manager. He anticipated everything. • He has explored what can happen in this match. • This scenario , too, has been discussed. • It’s a great thing to be able to quickly switch between so many actions . • We went from 5-4-2 to 4-4-3 to an all or nothing plan B. • If you find that you can not proceed as planned and you know what possible next steps are, that gives you confidence . • … predicting is not the right word . It is preparing for . The players know what they can expect.
Key concepts • Objective: what do we want to enhance in our system; what is the problem we want to solve? • Scenarios: which are the potential (external) conditions under which the objective has to be reached? • Actions or measures: what can we do to reach our objectives? • Tipping points: under what conditions do the actions perform unsatisfactory? • Pathways: what combinations of actions bring us to our objective?
Water management strategies when dealing with uncertain futures Type 1: Select Most Probable future and design a strategy for that future Type 2: List all possible futures and find robust strategies
Why scenarios • Storytelling about the future • By definition: the future is uncertain • That leaves us with a problem: We have to make decisions now, while we do not know the future • Scenarios help us to envision uncertain futures
If the uncertainty is an inherent characteristic of the problem, it should affect the way we plan for and make policy decisions Policy approaches based on probability (analysis, decision styles, etc) do not work well in such an environment – Mainly due to the deep uncertainty about outcomes that grows from this complexity – The familiar “expected value” approach may be fragile We need to change our approach as a result – Robustness instead of optimality – Adapt to new knowledge and information – Look at all possible futures - Don’t bet on a single unpredictable future
Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways planning approach 1. Analyse objectives, reassess vulnerabilities & if needed opportunities using scenarios 2. Identify actions and assess 6. Monitor efficacy, sell-by date of actions Development of reassess Adaptive Plans actions if needed 3. Develop and 5. Implement the evaluate plan adaptation pathways and map 4. Design of an adaptive plan, inc. preferred pathways and triggers
1. Raising awareness • the implications of climate variability and climate change for decision making, • the difficulty of finding proof of climate change in relevant variables for water management, • the path of adaptation is the result of society- environment interactions • path-dependency of decisions • Short term measures Long term options Under conditions of deep uncertainty an adaptive plan is needed
Intermediate conclusions • Future is uncertain, systems become more complex, unpredictable behavior of the parties involved • Ignoring uncertainty is a terrible idea • Long-term planning requires a participative, adaptive approach Hence there is need for … • Experiencing the future and its uncertainties • Awareness about approaches for dealing with uncertainties • Reflect on alternative policy decisions
Why serious games? • Raising awareness • Experience uncertainty • Understanding reactive versus proactive actions • Role of events
The game can have different foci and messages • Water management actions and their impacts • Scenario development and analysis (to be elaborated) • Dealing with climate (change) uncertainty • Adaptive policy pathways • Negotiation • Economic evaluation of adaptive pathways (to be elaborated) Different areas: coast, river, upstream Give people an experience and tell a story using the game
coast river upstream area schematization System: river with levees System: river, coast, coastal city, System: hilly area with river, dam harbor, sea water intrusion Pressures: climate change (river for fresh water supply and peak discharges + precipitation), socio- Pressures: sea level rise, flow reduction, tributary for water characteristics subsidence economic growth supply to other area Water and space users: drinking Users: citizens, ships, agriculture, Pressures: climate change (river riparian nature water, ships, nature discharges), socio-economic Policy actions: sea wall, sand Actions: raising levees, flood proof (upstream water use?) building, evacuation, urban nourishment, mangrove, Users: agriculture, neighbor and developments, desalinization downstream area Actions: environmental flow, peak reduction, water storage visualization Under construction Under construction Current version Current version Possible extension
The game box
Under construction • Manuals • Hilly area • Coastal erosion • Web based
Why pathways generator? • Build that stupid thing! Actions speak louder than words • Explore pathways and pathways dependency • Lock-in and pathways dependencies • Participative: Easy to build and modify pathways, easy to discuss pathways
Next version • Now being developed • Include costs of pathways • Cost-benefit analysis
Why Integrated Assessment Models? • Easy to add details, virtually impossible to eliminate details • Complex models versus rapid assessment models • Interrelations between sectors, processes and actions • Fit for purpose modeling • Technology push versus policy options demand • Quick scan of numerous options
Proposed process modules Primary processes • Network water distribution over Bangladesh • Discharge and water level at critical points in the network • District water balance for drainage units Linked processes • Erosion and sedimentation • Flood and inundation • Salinity in soil and surface water • Cropping pattern and cropping rotation changes
Proposed impact modules • Impact module: Irrigation demand and supply • Impact module: Agricultural crop yield • Impact module: Effects on freshwater/saltwater fisheries • Bank erosion • Waterlogging, flood and inundation
Flow of information Flow of information in a decision support context Flow of information in a research context Climate models and socio- economic development Biophysical and hydrological models Impact models and metamodels
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