future Willem van Deursen Carthago Consultancy Deltares 11 March - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

You better be prepared for the future

Willem van Deursen Carthago Consultancy Deltares 11 March 2016

Climate Change Research Institute seminar Victoria University of Wellington

Outline

• Interview Dirk Kuyt
• Lessons of Dirk Kuyt
• Adaptation Policy Circle
• Sustainable Delta Game
• Pathways generator
• Integrated Assessment Models

You better be prepared

You better be prepared

Dirk Kuyt:

• Thats the good thing about this manager. He anticipated

everything.

• He has explored what can happen in this match.
• This scenario, too, has been discussed.
• It’s a great thing to be able to quickly switch between so

many actions.

• We went from 5-4-2 to 4-4-3 to an all or nothing plan B.
• If you find that you can not proceed as planned and you

know what possible next steps are, that gives you confidence.

• … predicting is not the right word. It is preparing for. The

players know what they can expect.

Key concepts

• Objective: what do we want to enhance in our

system; what is the problem we want to solve?

• Scenarios: which are the potential (external)

conditions under which the objective has to be reached?

• Actions or measures: what can we do to reach
• ur objectives?
• Tipping points: under what conditions do the

actions perform unsatisfactory?

• Pathways: what combinations of actions bring us

to our objective?

Water management strategies when dealing with uncertain futures

Type 1: Select Most Probable future and design a strategy for that future Type 2: List all possible futures and find robust strategies

Why scenarios

• Storytelling about the future
• By definition: the future is uncertain
• That leaves us with a problem: We have

to make decisions now, while we do not know the future

• Scenarios help us to envision uncertain

futures

If the uncertainty is an inherent characteristic of the problem, it should affect the way we plan for and make policy decisions Policy approaches based on probability (analysis, decision styles, etc) do not work well in such an environment – Mainly due to the deep uncertainty about outcomes that grows from this complexity – The familiar “expected value” approach may be fragile We need to change our approach as a result – Robustness instead of optimality – Adapt to new knowledge and information – Look at all possible futures - Don’t bet on a single unpredictable future

Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways planning approach

• 1. Analyse
• bjectives,

vulnerabilities &

• pportunities

using scenarios

• 2. Identify actions

and assess efficacy, sell-by date of actions

• 3. Develop and

evaluate adaptation pathways and map

• 4. Design of an

adaptive plan, inc. preferred pathways and triggers

• 5. Implement the

plan

• 6. Monitor

Development of Adaptive Plans

actions reassess if needed reassess if needed

• 1. Raising awareness
• the implications of climate variability and climate

change for decision making,

• the difficulty of finding proof of climate change in

relevant variables for water management,

• the path of adaptation is the result of society-

environment interactions

• path-dependency of decisions
• Short term measures Long term options

Under conditions of deep uncertainty an adaptive plan is needed

Intermediate conclusions

• Future is uncertain, systems become more complex,

unpredictable behavior of the parties involved

• Ignoring uncertainty is a terrible idea
• Long-term planning requires a participative, adaptive

approach Hence there is need for …

• Experiencing the future and its uncertainties
• Awareness about approaches for dealing with

uncertainties

• Reflect on alternative policy decisions

Why serious games?

• Raising awareness
• Experience uncertainty
• Understanding reactive versus proactive

actions

• Role of events

The game can have different foci and messages

• Water management actions and their impacts
• Scenario development and analysis (to be elaborated)
• Dealing with climate (change) uncertainty
• Adaptive policy pathways
• Negotiation
• Economic evaluation of adaptive pathways (to be elaborated)

Different areas: coast, river, upstream Give people an experience and tell a story using the game

river upstream coast

System: river, coast, coastal city, harbor, sea water intrusion Pressures: sea level rise, subsidence Water and space users: drinking water, ships, nature Policy actions: sea wall, sand nourishment, mangrove, desalinization System: river with levees Pressures: climate change (river discharges + precipitation), socio- economic growth Users: citizens, ships, agriculture, riparian nature Actions: raising levees, flood proof building, evacuation, urban developments, System: hilly area with river, dam for fresh water supply and peak flow reduction, tributary for water supply to other area Pressures: climate change (river discharges), socio-economic (upstream water use?) Users: agriculture, neighbor and downstream area Actions: environmental flow, peak reduction, water storage

area schematization characteristics visualization

Under construction Under construction

Current version Possible extension Current version

The game box

Under construction

• Manuals
• Hilly area
• Coastal erosion
• Web based

Why pathways generator?

• Build that stupid thing! Actions speak louder

than words

• Explore pathways and pathways dependency
• Lock-in and pathways dependencies
• Participative: Easy to build and modify

pathways, easy to discuss pathways

Next version

• Now being developed
• Include costs of pathways
• Cost-benefit analysis

Why Integrated Assessment Models?

• Easy to add details, virtually impossible to

eliminate details

• Complex models versus rapid assessment models
• Interrelations between sectors, processes and

actions

• Fit for purpose modeling
• Technology push versus policy options demand
• Quick scan of numerous options

Proposed process modules

Primary processes

• Network water distribution over Bangladesh
• Discharge and water level at critical points in the network
• District water balance for drainage units

Linked processes

• Erosion and sedimentation
• Flood and inundation
• Salinity in soil and surface water
• Cropping pattern and cropping rotation changes

Proposed impact modules

• Impact module: Irrigation demand and supply
• Impact module: Agricultural crop yield
• Impact module: Effects on freshwater/saltwater

fisheries

• Bank erosion
• Waterlogging, flood and inundation

Flow of information

Climate models and socio- economic development Biophysical and hydrological models Impact models and metamodels

Flow of information in a research context Flow of information in a decision support context