Future Directions for Global and Hemispheric Cooperation the role - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Øystein Hov

Norwegian Meteorological Institute, MSC-W, UiO chair OPAG EPAC of CAS (WMO) EMEP TFHTAP Brussels 15 June 2010

Future Directions for Global and Hemispheric Cooperation – the role of WMO

Moisture, precipitation Heat Momentum CO2 and other GHGs PM physical and chemical characterisation Halocarbons and SF6 NOx NH3 VOC CO SO2 HM POP

Weather (incremental improvements in NWP)

Radiative forcing - climate response UNFCCC (§ co- benefits and tradeoffs; seasonal to decadal) Air quality – health National and regional regulations § Acid deposition – ecosystems CLRTAP to global § Eutrophication – ecosystems CLRTAP to global § BDC Visibility incl sand and dust storms (GAW, WWRP) Surface ozone – crop loss CLRTAP to global § UV – health and crops Vienna Convention

Water availability and quality § Biodiversity BDC § Agriculture/food §

Fluxes between the Earth’s surface and the atmosphere

Protect life and property, safeguard the environment, contribute to sustainable development, promote long-term observation of met., hydrological, climatological data, incl related environmental data, promote capacity-building, meet internl commitments § significant gains can be made through WMO contributions

WMO between operations, policy and research Atmospheric composition and health; ecosystems impact; climate change - the cycling of greenhouse gases and interaction with AQ incl SLCF; Nr cycling; NWP improvement; sand and dust storms (CLRTAP; EU; IPCC; Nitrogen initiative) (WMO Executive Council Task Team (EC-RTT) report April 2009)

Summing up EC-RTT + GAW recommendations

• GAW is mature but resource strapped
• WMO should ensure that the capabilities related to

meteorological observations, research models, and operations are used to

– Link regional air pollution issues together in a global perspective – Air quality forecasting – NRT AMDAR like observations of chemical composition incl H2O – Air pollution and climate change interact both ways – Water cycle – water as a resource and a carrier of pollutants/nutrients – The reactive nitrogen issue

• NMHS’s are under financial pressure. WMO member countries

anyhow face these problematic issues and need to address them through the institutions they have.

• NMHS’s and WMO are very well positioned through the

capacity to observe, do research incl develop and apply models,

• perationalise, verify/validate, disseminate and reach out

CAS agrees that

• changes in air pollution, climate and the biogeochemical cycles of trace chemicals in

the atmosphere such as carbon and reactive nitrogen give rise to environmental

• problems. Meteorological processes often strongly influence their severity and rate
• f change.
• The analysis and abatement of these problems requires an interdisciplinary

approach both nationally and internationally.

• The Commission urges WMO and its partners to intensify efforts to develop

appropriate partnerships across disciplines nationally and internationally to address these challenges.

• The Commission agrees that it is important to develop a common understanding of

air pollution, its health impacts, its long range transmission and the interaction with weather and climate change.

• The Commission agrees that many international conventions and initiatives would

benefit greatly from a common approach developed with the help of WMO and its partners nationally and internationally.

– the WMO co-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), – the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), – the WMO-UNEP supported Vienna Convention on Protection of the Ozone Layer, – the Reactive Nitrogen Initiative, the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) and its European component Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES), – the Convention for the Long Range Transmission of Air Pollutants (CLRTAP), the Malé declaration and others.

8.3.4 Recommendation: WMO Members, including NMHSs and their national partners in other agencies and the WMO Secretariat, play a leading role in enhancing environmental

• bservations, predictions and services and should:
• Strengthen observations to support multiple scale air quality prediction. NRT data

delivery.

• Lead a global partnership to link globally the technical work on the

regional/continental long range transport of air pollution. Includes delivery of environmental data for day-to-day assessment of the long (and very long) range transport of air pollution; hindcast analysis and scenario calculations. NRT of

• bservations and forecasting.
• Provide quantitative information on carbon dioxide emissions through GAW

(recognized as the comprehensive network of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS)). Support research as basis for a global carbon tracking system. DA, NWP, deduce net atmosphere/Earth surface carbon exchange and estimates of uncertainties;

• Support the analysis of the reactive nitrogen cycle to advise and build capacity to

minimize reactive nitrogen loss to waterways and to the atmosphere, while the use of reactive nitrogen fertilizer is enhanced in regions where food production is nitrogen deficient;

• Take the lead in the technical analysis of how climate variability and change and air

pollution interact both ways on a regional basis, and in combination on a global basis.

• These are issues of immediate concern throughout the world affecting societies to an

extent that is not well known but could be significant (air pollution events, floods, droughts; water supply, food supply etc.).

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UNECE CLRTAP (1979)

http://www.unece.org/env/lrtap/full%20text/1979.CLRTAP.e.pdf §1:

• "Air Pollution" means the introduction by man, directly or

indirectly, of substances or energy into the air resulting in deleterious effects of such a nature as to endanger human health, harm living resources and ecosystems and material property and impair or interfere with amenities and other legitimate uses of the environment, and "air pollutants" shall be construed accordingly;

• "Long-range transboundary air pollution" means air pollution

whose physical origin is situated wholly or in part within the area under the national jurisdiction of one State and which has adverse effects in the area under the jurisdiction of another State at such a distance that it is not generally possible to distinguish the contribution of individual emission sources or groups of sources.

Science issues in the revised strategy (1)

Keep the Generic science goal of EMEP

• State and trends in acidification, eutrophication, surface ozone, PM, HM,

POPs

• Emission and trends, compliance
• Transboundary source-receptor-relationships
• Ecosystem recovery
• Overall assessment and policy advice

Air pollution changes with climate

• 2010-2050: climate variability and change; consequences for atmospheric
• composition. Migration. Megacities. Exposed regions
• Climate change adaptation will change energy consumption emissions

(renewables including biofuels).

• Long range transport of radiative forcing

Science issues in the revised strategy (2)

Air quality and its effect on the population

• Linking of scales. Transboundary component of population exposure
• PM: physical and chemical characterization. Health effects (WHO)
• POPs: identify new POPs, their cycle and impact
• Biogeochemical cycle of Hg

Atmospheric physical and biological processes

• Fluxes soil-atmosphere, ocean-atmosphere
• Reactive nitrogen cycle
• Air pollution and the carbon cycle

Overall assessment and scenarios

• Co-benefits air pollution/air quality – climate – reactive nitrogen
• Optimisation, sensitivity studies, scenario analysis as approaches to the

testing of alternative policy measures

Claire Granier, CNRS Globalisation of economies and emissions

• f America

Reduced N deposition 4,99 MtN 98% Oxidised N deposition 5,10 MtN 86% S dep 8,88 MtS 89% NH3 emissions 5,08 MtN NOx emissions 5,92 MtN SO2 emissions 10,00 MtS

RECOM- MEN- DATION: LINK REGIONS TOGETHER

GAW Global Aerosol Network Status China Atmos. Watch Network

Source: Zhang Xiao-Ye

• Many undersampled

regions, many sampling sites not in database

• SAG is working to recruit

contributing networks and to update database GAWSIS

EMEP model calculations with constant emissions 30t/s of mineral ash from 2000-2006, 28% by mass as PM2.5, 72% in the coarse fraction. DJF average for 2000-2006.

Climate change air pollution

• Climate change modifies pdf’s of physical and dynamical

variables that determine atmospheric composition

• Modifications of atmosphere-surface interaction, in particular

at the terrestrial surface, important

• Earth system models only account for a small fraction of

important feedbacks and in highly parameterised ways

• Climate change – air pollution tradeoffs and cobenefits,

– measurement programmes are required in particular for fluxes between the terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere – Process oriented earth system models need development

• The climate change – air pollution feedbacks can be very

important

• Aerosol emissions 1990-2002 cooled climate -0.7°

C (Prather, Penner, et al., 2009). Kyoto gases warmed 0.3° C (emissions prior to 1990 warmed by 0.6° C)

NorESM

Standard run without volcanic emissions left column, High emissions (200t/s mineral ash, 1tS/s SO2) right column Vertical columns of mineral ash, SO2 and sulphate aerosols

2m temperature after one year of high ash and SO2 emissions (200t/s and 1tS/s, respectively)

NorESM high emissions (200t/s mineral ash, 1tS/s of SO2), end of emission year (year 1), difference from no emission (standard) run

IPCC AR4 WG1 ch7

Black line - annual T change relative to 1961-1990 up to 2000, blue line – GHG and PM constant at 2000 levels, red line – GHG constant at 2000 level, PM zero

Observational Needs

Chemical Meteorological

Modeling Needs

Weather prediction Chemical weather and air quality prediction

Air Quality & Related Products

Improved Forecasts Guidelines Pilot Projects

Users

Health Agriculture Environmental Public Emergency Response

Capacity Building

Workshops Training

Assimilation Dissemination Coordination Education Demonstration

(Tasks: 13,14) (Tasks: 9-12) (Tasks: 15-18) (Tasks: 1-4) (Tasks: 5-8)

Urbanisation air pollution health GAW - GURME RECOMMENDATION: AQ FORECASTING

MOZAIC Data (1994-2009)

1994-2001: 17714 flights with O3 & H2O 2002-2008: 13411 additional flights

with CO (on 4 (now 3) aircraft, 2002-2009) with NOy (on 1 aircraft, 2001-2007) High resolution vertical profiles during take-off and landing (~ 20m) High horizontal resolution at cruise altitude (~ 1 km) Regular measurements with 5 aircraft flying almost every day Three aircraft still in service (2 Lufthansa, 1 Air Namibia)

More than 120 publications with MOZAIC data

RECOMMENDATION: NRT AMDAR-LIKE CHEMICAL COMPOSITION OBSERVATIONS INCL H2O

6/24/2010

Challenges for Networks

• Increased coordination within each type of

network

– measured parameters – sampling protocols, QA/QC, data processing – find partners in undersampled regions

• Provide information on measurements to a

common database

– e.g., GAWSIS – need to keep information up-to-date

• Provide data in a common format to users

– increase percentage of stations submitting data – not necessary to have a common data center

6/24/2010

Challenges for Integration

• Enhanced interaction of the data generation and

assimilation/modelling communities

• Coordination among different types of

measurements

• Development of re-analysis products for

combining different types of measurements – surface-based in-situ – surface-based remote sensing – satellite-based remote sensing – radiation budget

The atmospheric lower boundary is more than a surface

Indirect and direct radiative forcings from tropospheric ozone

Sitch et al. (Nature, 2007) Symbols are direct forcings (IPCC, 2001) Blue and red curves are indirect ozone forcing, due to ozone impacts on vegetation (high ozone sensitivity) (low ozone sensitivity) Suggests that the indirect forcing may be similar in magnitude to the direct forcing.

RECOMMENDATION: AIR POLLUTION

• CLIMATE/WEATHER

Water stress

Changes in water yield in Europe

(Eurowasser project)

met.no strategy seminar met.no strategy seminar met.no strategy seminar met.no strategy seminar Klækken Klækken Klækken Klækken 2007 2007 2007 2007-

• 10

10 10 10-

• 30

30 30 30

Cryosphere

Water cycle system

• Precip

Evap Evap

• Shortwave

radiation Longwave radiation Shortwave radiation Longwave radiation Precip Evap

RECOMMENDATION: WATER CYCLE - WATER AS A RESOURCE AND CARRIER OF POLLUTANTS/NUTRIENTS

• C
• FCCC

CLRTAP NEC Dir. AQ Directive Directives

• n emission

control

Manure Manure Manure Manure Combustion Combustion Combustion Combustion Soil NO Soil NO Soil NO Soil NO 3

3 3 3

N N N N2

2 2 2O

O O O Effects on ecosystems Effects on ecosystems Effects on ecosystems Effects on ecosystems

• .a.
• .a.
• .a.
• .a.

decrease in decrease in decrease in decrease in biodiversity biodiversity biodiversity biodiversity Effects on materials Effects on materials Effects on materials Effects on materials and cultural heritage and cultural heritage and cultural heritage and cultural heritage Climate change Climate change Climate change Climate change Effects on human and Effects on human and Effects on human and Effects on human and animal health animal health animal health animal health NH NH NH NH3

3 3 3

NH NH NH NH4

4 4 4NO

NO NO NO3

3 3 3

HNO HNO HNO HNO3

3 3 3

NO NO NO NOx

x x x

Fertilizer Fertilizer Fertilizer Fertilizer industry industry industry industry CO CO CO CO2

2 2 2,

, , , CH CH CH CH4

4 4 4,

, , , SF SF SF SF

6 6 6 6, HFK,

, HFK, , HFK, , HFK, PFK, .. PFK, .. PFK, .. PFK, .. SO SO SO SO

2 2 2 2, (

, ( , ( , (NH NH NH NH4

4 4 4)

) ) )2

2 2 2SO4

SO4 SO4 SO4

N N N N2

2 2 2

Aquatic NO3

Nitrate Directive Water Directive

CBD ?

RECOMMENDATION: THE REACTIVE NITROGEN CYCLE

34 WMO CASXV Incheon Republic of Korea 18-25 November 2009

35 WMO CASXV Incheon Republic of Korea 18-25 November 2009

• Observations:

GAW Global Stations

180oW 120oW 60oW 0o 60oE 120oE 180oW 80oS 40oS 0o 40oN 80oN

Miller projection - GAWSIS 2.1 (c) 2003 Empa, QA/SAC Switzerland

Jungfraujoch Zugspitze- Hohenpeissenberg

• Mt. Waliguan

Minamitorishima Bukit Koto Tabang Danum Valley Cape Grim Lauder Neumayer Ushuaia Amsterdam Is. Cape Point Arembepe Pallas- Sodankylä Zeppelin Mountain/ Ny Ålesund Alert Point Barrow Mauna Loa Samoa Izaña Assekrem- Tamanrasset

• Mt. Kenya

Mace Head South Pole

36 WMO CASXV Incheon Republic of Korea 18-25 November 2009

Thank you for your attention