Øystein Hov
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, MSC-W, UiO chair OPAG EPAC of CAS (WMO) EMEP TFHTAP Brussels 15 June 2010
Future Directions for Global and Hemispheric Cooperation the role - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Future Directions for Global and Hemispheric Cooperation the role of WMO ystein Hov Norwegian Meteorological Institute, MSC-W, UiO chair OPAG EPAC of CAS (WMO) EMEP TFHTAP Brussels 15 June 2010 Protect life and property, safeguard the
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, MSC-W, UiO chair OPAG EPAC of CAS (WMO) EMEP TFHTAP Brussels 15 June 2010
Moisture, precipitation Heat Momentum CO2 and other GHGs PM physical and chemical characterisation Halocarbons and SF6 NOx NH3 VOC CO SO2 HM POP
Weather (incremental improvements in NWP)
Radiative forcing - climate response UNFCCC (§ co- benefits and tradeoffs; seasonal to decadal) Air quality – health National and regional regulations § Acid deposition – ecosystems CLRTAP to global § Eutrophication – ecosystems CLRTAP to global § BDC Visibility incl sand and dust storms (GAW, WWRP) Surface ozone – crop loss CLRTAP to global § UV – health and crops Vienna Convention
Water availability and quality § Biodiversity BDC § Agriculture/food §
Fluxes between the Earth’s surface and the atmosphere
Protect life and property, safeguard the environment, contribute to sustainable development, promote long- term observation of met., hydrological, climatological data, incl related environmental data, promote capacity-building, meet internl commitments § significant gains can be made through WMO contributions
WMO between operations, policy and research Atmospheric composition and health; ecosystems impact; climate change - the cycling of greenhouse gases and interaction with AQ incl SLCF; Nr cycling; NWP improvement; sand and dust storms (CLRTAP; EU; IPCC; Nitrogen initiative) (WMO Executive Council Task Team (EC-RTT) report April 2009)
– Link regional air pollution issues together in a global perspective – Air quality forecasting – NRT AMDAR like observations of chemical composition incl H2O – Air pollution and climate change interact both ways – Water cycle – water as a resource and a carrier of pollutants/nutrients – The reactive nitrogen issue
the atmosphere such as carbon and reactive nitrogen give rise to environmental
approach both nationally and internationally.
appropriate partnerships across disciplines nationally and internationally to address these challenges.
air pollution, its health impacts, its long range transmission and the interaction with weather and climate change.
benefit greatly from a common approach developed with the help of WMO and its partners nationally and internationally.
– the WMO co-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), – the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), – the WMO-UNEP supported Vienna Convention on Protection of the Ozone Layer, – the Reactive Nitrogen Initiative, the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) and its European component Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES), – the Convention for the Long Range Transmission of Air Pollutants (CLRTAP), the Malé declaration and others.
delivery.
regional/continental long range transport of air pollution. Includes delivery of environmental data for day-to-day assessment of the long (and very long) range transport of air pollution; hindcast analysis and scenario calculations. NRT of
(recognized as the comprehensive network of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS)). Support research as basis for a global carbon tracking system. DA, NWP, deduce net atmosphere/Earth surface carbon exchange and estimates of uncertainties;
minimize reactive nitrogen loss to waterways and to the atmosphere, while the use of reactive nitrogen fertilizer is enhanced in regions where food production is nitrogen deficient;
pollution interact both ways on a regional basis, and in combination on a global basis.
extent that is not well known but could be significant (air pollution events, floods, droughts; water supply, food supply etc.).
Integrated approach for all WMO Programmes to
GAW World Data Centres GCOS Data Centres Global Run-off Data Centre Global Precip. Climatology Centre IRI, Hadley Centre, and
centres; Universities; Regional Climate Centres (CIIFEN, etc.) International Organizations (IAEA, CTBTO, UNEP , FAO.. ) Commercial Service Providers World Radiation Centre Regional Instrument Centres WMO World Data Centres International Projects (e.g. GMES HALO)
Real-time “push” On-demand “pull”
DCPC NC/ NC/ DCP DCPC NC NC NC NC/ NC/ DCP DCPC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC NC GISC SC GISC SC GISC SC
Satellite Two-Way Systems Satellite Dissemination (IGDDS, RETIM, etc)
NC NC NC NC DCPC GISC SC GISC SC DCPC
http://www.unece.org/env/lrtap/full%20text/1979.CLRTAP.e.pdf §1:
Keep the Generic science goal of EMEP
POPs
Air pollution changes with climate
(renewables including biofuels).
Air quality and its effect on the population
Atmospheric physical and biological processes
Overall assessment and scenarios
testing of alternative policy measures
Claire Granier, CNRS Globalisation of economies and emissions
SO2 emissions 10,00 MtS NOx emissions 5,92 MtN NH3 emissions 5,08 MtN S dep 8,88 MtS 89% Oxidised N deposition 5,10 MtN 86% Reduced N deposition 4,99 MtN 98%
Source: Zhang Xiao-Ye
EMEP model calculations with constant emissions 30t/s of mineral ash from 2000-2006, 28% by mass as PM2.5, 72% in the coarse fraction. DJF average for 2000-2006.
– measurement programmes are required in particular for fluxes between the terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere – Process oriented earth system models need development
Standard run without volcanic emissions left column, High emissions (200t/s mineral ash, 1tS/s SO2) right column Vertical columns of mineral ash, SO2 and sulphate aerosols
2m temperature after one year of high ash and SO2 emissions (200t/s and 1tS/s, respectively)
NorESM high emissions (200t/s mineral ash, 1tS/s of SO2), end of emission year (year 1), difference from no emission (standard) run
IPCC AR4 WG1 ch7
Black line - annual T change relative to 1961-1990 up to 2000, blue line – GHG and PM constant at 2000 levels, red line – GHG constant at 2000 level, PM zero
Observational Needs
Modeling Needs
air quality prediction
Air Quality & Related Products
Users
Capacity Building
Assimilation Dissemination Coordination Education Demonstration
(Tasks: 13,14) (Tasks: 9-12) (Tasks: 15-18) (Tasks: 1-4) (Tasks: 5-8)
High resolution vertical profiles during take-off and landing (~ 20m) High horizontal resolution at cruise altitude (~ 1 km) Regular measurements with 5 aircraft flying almost every day Three aircraft still in service (2 Lufthansa, 1 Air Namibia)
More than 120 publications with MOZAIC data
6/28/2010
6/28/2010
The atmospheric lower boundary is more than a surface
Sitch et al. (Nature, 2007) Symbols are direct forcings (IPCC, 2001) Blue and red curves are indirect ozone forcing, due to ozone impacts on vegetation (high ozone sensitivity) (low ozone sensitivity) Suggests that the indirect forcing may be similar in magnitude to the direct forcing.
met.no no s strategy gy seminar ar K Klække kken 2 n 2007 007-10 10-30 30
Cryosphere
Surface Groundwater Lithosphere
Precip Evap Evap
Unsaturated zone River system atmosphere over land atmosphere over ocean Oceans
Shortwave radiation Longwave radiation Shortwave radiation Longwave radiation Precip Evap
[ Title]
[ Lecturer] , [ Date]
FCCC CLRTAP NEC Dir. AQ Directive Directives
control
Manur ure e Combus usti tion
Soil N il NO 3 N2O Effect cts o s on ecosyst systems s
decreas ease i e in biodi diver ersity ty Effe ffects on
aterials and c and cul ultur tural her herita tage Climate c te change nge Effe ffects on
human and an and ani animal heal health th NH NH3 NH NH4NO NO3 HNO HNO3 NO NOx Fertili lizer indus ustr try CO CO
2,
, CH CH4, SF SF
6, H
, HFK, , PFK, .. , .. SO SO
2, (
, (NH NH4)2SO4 O4
Aquatic NO3
Nitrate Directive Water Directive
34 WMO CASXV Incheon Republic of Korea 18-25 November 2009
35 WMO CASXV Incheon Republic of Korea 18-25 November 2009
Observations:
Jungfraujoch Zugspitze- Hohenpeissenberg
Minamitorishima Bukit Koto Tabang Danum Valley Cape Grim Lauder Neumayer Ushuaia Amsterdam Is. Cape Point Arembepe Pallas- Sodankylä Zeppelin Mountain/ Ny Ålesund Alert Point Barrow Mauna Loa Samoa Izaña Assekrem- Tamanrasset
Mace Head South Pole
36 WMO CASXV Incheon Republic of Korea 18-25 November 2009
characterisation
(§ co-benefits and tradeoffs; seasonal to decadal)
§
visibility §
(§ significant gains can be made through WMO contributions)
41 WMO CASXV Incheon Republic of Korea 18-25 November 2009
network through integration of all kind of
Main Long-term Objectives Rationale Mission Objectives Implementation
using WMO GTS/WIS
the users application into coherent data processing chains related to a GAW quality management system
variables in atmospheric transport and numerical weather prediction models
World Integrated Data Network: e.g. WDCA, WDC-RSAT AERONET
Reanalysis or Inversions
NWP Models & Data Assimilation
GEMS; WMO SDS-WAS
Cal/Val & Quality Assurance Globally Gridded Data &/or Emissions
1. Air Quality Warnings 2. Public SDS Warnings 3. Public Aerosol Bulletins 4. Surface and air transport 5. Scientific Assessments (IPCC, Ozone, Precip) 6. Improved Weather Forecasts 7. Climate assessment
Observations
(in situ, remote)
Observation Optimization Real Time Data Delivery WIS etc
Air/Surface Exchange & Emissions
All Data Delivery
CTM
Models
Leaders: WMO/GAW & Satellite Orgs & ENV Orgs
World Meteorological Centres
W W W GTS
Regional/Specialized Meteorological Centres National Meteorological Centres Meteorological and R&D Satellite Operator Centres
interconnects
Weather Domain Climate Domain Water Domain
Health Energy Disasters Weather Climate Water Agriculture Ecosystems Biodiversity
Inlet Plate with BCP Pumps P-1 Package 1 (on all ac): DAS, O3, CO (CNRS) H2O (FZJ), cloud (UMAN) Package 2 (4 options): a: NOy (FZJ) b: NOx (FZJ c: CO2+CH4 (MPG) d: Aerosol (DLR) 2 gas bottles (for P-2 a,b,c)
Total Weight: 120 kg
Safety Box & electr. provisions Ventilation & smoke det
6/28/2010J. Ogren 05/03/09
NASA A-Train
CALIPSO Aerosol Lidar
Total count = 90 AERONET-LT OtherGAW/AERONET Aerosol Remote Sensing Stations
18 UTC, 7 May 2002 30-hr forecast
Forecast
[ Title]
[ Lecturer] , [ Date]
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 1850 1900 1950 2000 Yea Year
Wor
populati tion and and Agr gricultu tural s sur urfac face
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Fer erti tilizers and N and NOx
World d populat ation
ns Agric ricul.
rface milions ns ha Fert rtiliz ilizer r Tgr NO NOx e x emissi ssions Carl Bosch Fritz Haber
[ Title]
[ Lecturer] , [ Date]
y ( )
Level of scientific understanding
High High High High Med Med Low V Low V Low V Low V Low V Low V Low V Low V Low V Low
Radiative Forcing (W m-2)
1 2 +ve components
+ve N effects Halocarbons N2O CH4 CO2 stratospheric
tropospheric
sulphate fossil fuel BC fossil fuel OC mineral dust biomass burning aerosol indirect effect contrails cirrus landuse (albedo only) solar nitrate
The effect of N on the GH balance …
CLRTAP, EMEP Regional air quality Management of reactive nitrogen Stockholm Convention Toxic species UNFCCC climate
EMEP Task Forces, Malé Declaration, EANET Co-benefits in reducing air pollution and climate change Eutrophication, reactive nitrogen in PM; TFRN under WGSR EANET, EEA, DG Environment, DG Enterprise, GMES, WMO-GAW HM and POPs in EMEP
load, increase surface heating.
change wet deposition
1 1
force on 23 October 2003.
2003.
force 5 August 1998.
Fluxes; 32 Parties. Entered into force 14 February 1991.
Fluxes by at least 30 per cent; 23 Parties. Entered into force 2 September 1987.
Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe (EMEP); 42 Parties. Entered into force 28 January 1988.
EMEP capacity Emissions Models incl data assimi- lation Observations Overall assess- ment Transboundary fluxes of air pollution 3 3 3 3 Air Pollution and its effects
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Atmosphere-biosphere interactions
atmospheric cycle
carbon cycle 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Climate change impacts on air pollution 2 1 2 1
Satellite and in situ networks
Atmospheric Core Services Atmospheric Dow nstream Services
atmosphere Operational Users
Service
(others) Core information (atmosphere incl land and ocean interfaces) User customized information (user products) Real time input information (raw data)