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Inferring Agreement to Rig Bids from Circumstantial Evidence William E. Kovacic George Washington University Law School 7 th LEAR Conference Rome, 4 July 2017 Antitrust and Collusion in the US Before 1890 After 1890 Stronger


  1. Inferring Agreement to Rig Bids from Circumstantial Evidence William E. Kovacic George Washington University Law School 7 th LEAR Conference Rome, 4 July 2017

  2. Antitrust and Collusion in the US • Before 1890 • After 1890 – Stronger detection and sanctions – Stonger concealment • Issue for Antitrust – Basis for inferring agreement

  3. Agenda • US Doctrine Status Quo • Circumstantial Proof • Personal Views Only

  4. Joint Work • Bob Marshall • Leslie Marx • Alison Jones • Damon Anderson • Emma Cronenweth • Rob Anderson

  5. Resources • Marshall & Marx, The Economics of Collusion (MIT Press 2012) • Kovacic, Marshall, Marx & White, Super Plus Factors and Agreement in Antitrust Law , 110 Michigan Law Review 393 (2011)

  6. Marshall/Marx Methodology • Cartel Architecture and Operations • Examination of Past Cases – Agency decisions – Published case studies – Own consulting

  7. US Doctrine Fundamentals • Sufficient Proof of Agreement – Direct – Circumstantial • Parallel Conduct Alone: Insufficient • Parallel Conduct Plus other Proof – “Plus Factors”

  8. Plus Factors • Industry Structure • Firm Conduct – Past collusion – Communications – Complexity – Irrationality

  9. Traditional Application • Checklist • Tick the Box • Are There Enough?

  10. Emerging Approach • Link Factors to Cartel Tasks • Form Consensus • Detect Deviations • Punish Cheaters • Suppress External Threats – Buyers, suppliers, mavericks

  11. Super Plus Factors • Close Connection to Cartel Behavior • Linked to Cartel Performance Tasks

  12. Super Plus Factors and Bid Rigging • Extensive Communications • Extensive Subcontracting • Broad Pattern of Refusals to Deal • Sales Force Incentives

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