From Al Qaeda to ISIS: The Evolution of Terrorism Dr Sebastian - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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From Al Qaeda to ISIS: The Evolution of Terrorism Dr Sebastian - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Apr 10, 2024 133 likes •432 views

NE Maryland Security Council 12 October 2016 From Al Qaeda to ISIS: The Evolution of Terrorism Dr Sebastian Gorka Vice President & Professor of Strategy and Irregular Warfare INSTITUTE of WORLD POLITICS Chairman THREAT KNOWLEDGE GROUP

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From Al Qaeda to ISIS: The Evolution of Terrorism

Dr Sebastian Gorka

Vice President & Professor of Strategy and Irregular Warfare INSTITUTE of WORLD POLITICS

Chairman THREAT KNOWLEDGE GROUP

NE Maryland Security Council 12 October 2016

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  • It is a fully-fledged TRANSREGIONAL

insurgency not just a terrorist group like AQ

  • It is the richest non-state threat group in

modern history

  • It has recruited 36,000+ foreign fighters

in just months

  • It has declared Caliphate after 90 years absence

Why ISIS-The Islamic State is much worse than Al Qaeda

How is ISIS / IS Doing this?

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5

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  • It is a fully-fledged TRANSREGIONAL

insurgency not just a terrorist group like AQ

  • It is the richest non-state threat group in

modern history

  • It has recruited 36,000+ foreign fighters

in just months

  • It has declared Caliphate after 90 years absence

Why ISIS-The Islamic State is much worse than Al Qaeda

How is ISIS / IS Doing this?

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American jihadis fighting in Iraq and Syria

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  • It is a fully-fledged TRANSREGIONAL

insurgency not just a terrorist group like AQ

  • It is the richest non-state threat group in

modern history

  • It has recruited 36,000+ foreign fighters

in just months

  • It has declared Caliphate after 90 years absence

Why ISIS-The Islamic State is much worse than Al Qaeda

How is ISIS / IS Doing this?

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Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi:

A New Kind of Threat Commander

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Al Shaam:

The Power of a Name

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What Does Abu Bakr al Baghdadi Really Want?

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How Much Religion Matters

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IS & Religious Genocide

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THE ISIS THREAT TO U.S.

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ISIS-Related Interdictions Per Month

Mar 2014 Apr 2014 May 2014 Jun 2014 Jul 2014 Aug 2014 Sep 2014 Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Mar 2015 Apr 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 2015 Aug 2015 Sep 2015 Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 3 1 1 1 1 7 4 1 4 19 2 11 7 11 3 5 2 3 7 6 3 1 1 3 6 3 2 1

2016

2014 2015

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ISIS-Related Interdictions in US (2014-present)

Where the jihadist lived

MT WY ID WA OR NV UT CA AZ ND SD NE CO NM TX OK KS AR LA MO IA MN WI IL IN KY TN MS AL GA FL SC NC VA WV OH MI NY PA MD DE NJ CT RI MA ME VT NH

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1 4

5 5

9

4

4 9

1 8

8 3 5 4 2 1 1 4 1 5 2 2 1 1 1

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KURZMAN: Muslim American Involvement in Violent Extremism, 2015 (Duke)

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ISIS Supporters in the U.S.

20.16%

Foreign Fighter Aspirants Domestic Plotters

37.82% 42.02%

Facilitators

Nearly 38% of arrests so far have been ISIS supporters who believed they could best serve the cause by carrying out attacks within the United States

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Social Media: Broadcasting Support Online

Broadcast on Social Media

42.02% 57.98%

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How are ISIS Supporters Being Interdicted?

Detected because of social media posts about ISIS, their intentions to join ISIS or stage an attack, or their contact with known ISIS affiliates on social media Detected in connection with another case Turned in by someone they know (friend, family, teacher, etc.) Unknowingly contacted by or were in contact with an undercover FBI agent or informant Unknowingly contacted by or were in contact with an undercover FBI agent or informant Turned in by a stranger

36 27 21 17 15 3

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What are domestic plotters targeting?

Military Police and/or FBI Pamela Geller University Campus Church Synagogue Gay Nightclub Bar Workplace Public Beach (Florida) Athletic Stadium (Miami) US Capitol LA Subway System The Pope

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1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Shopping Mall New York City streets

1 1

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What the Terrorists Believe

Jihad as a Global Brand. All believers must fight. Abdullah AZZAM War’s Objective is God’s Sovereignty on Earth. Terror is the best weapon in war Brigadier S.K. Malik The World as Heretical, to be cleansed forcibly by Holy War. Sayyed QUTB

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The Threat is REAL

Between March 2014 and September 2016, 110 Americans have been arrested or charged for some connection to ISIS (including 6 unnamed minors), whether traveling to fight, recruiting, fundraising or planning to travel.

That is a 300% increase of ISIS recruits over Al Qaeda recruits over a comparable period

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  • The Enemy is motivated by a religious

narrative

  • We cannot defeat him unless we understand

how religion informs his operations and defines his strategic objectives and TTPs

  • ISIS and the GJM tell their recruits what they

want them to do. Their Enemy Threat Doctrine must be incorporated into our Intell. Cycle. (Use Open Source!)

  • Self-Censoring the above truths endangers
  • ur citizens and operators and will prolong

the war.

So What?

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GOING DEEPER

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Email: seb.gorka@gmail.com

RELEVANT SITES:

www.TheGorkaBriefing.com www.ThreatKnowledge.org www.CouncilOnGlobalSecurity.org

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BACK-UP

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But Why is ISIS-IS So Popular?

1924 Caliphate Dissolved 1928 Creation of the Muslim Brotherhood 1948 Creation of Israel, loss of Palestine 1979 Soviet Invasion of AFG Iranian Revolution and the Siege of Mecca (MAK, proto-AQ, created) 1989 Soviet Withdrawal from AFG 1990/1 Fall of USSR and Gulf War I – Modern Jihad goes from Int. Unconventional Warfare Organization to Global Terrorist Ideology and Brand