NE Maryland Security Council 12 October 2016 From Al Qaeda to ISIS: The Evolution of Terrorism Dr Sebastian Gorka Vice President & Professor of Strategy and Irregular Warfare INSTITUTE of WORLD POLITICS Chairman THREAT KNOWLEDGE GROUP
Why ISIS-The Islamic State is much worse than Al Qaeda - It is a fully-fledged TRANSREGIONAL insurgency not just a terrorist group like AQ - It is the richest non-state threat group in modern history - It has recruited 36,000+ foreign fighters in just months - It has declared Caliphate after 90 years absence How is ISIS / IS Doing this?
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Why ISIS-The Islamic State is much worse than Al Qaeda - It is a fully-fledged TRANSREGIONAL insurgency not just a terrorist group like AQ - It is the richest non-state threat group in modern history - It has recruited 36,000+ foreign fighters in just months - It has declared Caliphate after 90 years absence How is ISIS / IS Doing this?
American jihadis fighting in Iraq and Syria
Why ISIS-The Islamic State is much worse than Al Qaeda - It is a fully-fledged TRANSREGIONAL insurgency not just a terrorist group like AQ - It is the richest non-state threat group in modern history - It has recruited 36,000+ foreign fighters in just months - It has declared Caliphate after 90 years absence How is ISIS / IS Doing this?
Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi: A New Kind of Threat Commander
Al Shaam: The Power of a Name
What Does Abu Bakr al Baghdadi Really Want?
How Much Religion Matters 1 2
IS & Religious Genocide 1 3
THE ISIS THREAT TO U.S. 1 4
Mar 2014 3 Apr 2014 1 May 2014 0 ISIS-Related Interdictions Per Month Jun 2014 1 2014 Jul 2014 1 Aug 2014 1 Sep 2014 0 Oct 2014 7 Nov 2014 4 Dec 2014 1 Jan 2015 4 Feb 2015 19 Mar 2015 2 Apr 2015 11 May 2015 7 Jun 2015 11 2015 Jul 2015 3 Aug 2015 5 Sep 2015 2 Oct 2015 0 Nov 2015 3 Dec 2015 7 Jan 2016 6 Feb 2016 3 Mar 2016 0 Apr 2016 1 May 2016 1 2016 Jun 2016 3 Jul 2016 6 Aug 2016 3 Sep 2016 2 Oct 2016 1
ISIS-Related Interdictions in US (2014-present) Where the jihadist lived 1 WA ME MT ND MN VT OR NH 1 1 1 3 ID SD WI MA 8 4 NY CT RI WY MI 1 4 IA PA IL NE 5 NJ 5 NV MD 1 DE 8 UT CA OH WV MO IN CO 9 2 4 KS 1 2 KY VA 4 0 NC 5 TN OK SC AZ AR NM GA 1 MS 4 AL 1 2 LA TX 5 FL 9
KURZMAN: Muslim American Involvement in Violent Extremism, 2015 (Duke)
ISIS Supporters in the U.S. Foreign 20.16% Fighter Aspirants 42.02% Domestic Plotters 37.82% Facilitators Nearly 38% of arrests so far have been ISIS supporters who believed they could best serve the cause by carrying out attacks within the United States
Social Media: Broadcasting Support Online Broadcast on Social Media 42.02% 57.98%
How are ISIS Supporters Being Interdicted? 36 Detected because of social media posts about ISIS, their intentions to join ISIS or stage an attack, or their contact with known ISIS affiliates on social media 27 Detected in connection with another case 21 Turned in by someone they know (friend, family, teacher, etc.) 17 Unknowingly contacted by or were in contact with an undercover FBI agent or informant 15 Unknowingly contacted by or were in contact with an undercover FBI agent or informant 3 Turned in by a stranger
What are domestic plotters targeting? 14 1 1 Military Bar Shopping Mall 1 9 1 New York City streets Police and/or FBI Workplace 3 1 Pamela Geller Public Beach (Florida) 1 2 University Campus Athletic Stadium (Miami) 1 1 Church US Capitol 1 1 Synagogue LA Subway System 1 1 Gay Nightclub The Pope
What the Terrorists Believe The World as Heretical, to be cleansed forcibly by Holy War. Sayyed QUTB Jihad as a Global Brand. All believers must fight. Abdullah AZZAM War’s Objective is God’s Sovereignty on Earth. Terror is the best weapon in war Brigadier S.K. Malik
The Threat is REAL Between March 2014 and September 2016, 110 Americans have been arrested or charged for some connection to ISIS (including 6 unnamed minors), whether traveling to fight, recruiting, fundraising or planning to travel. That is a 300% increase of ISIS recruits over Al Qaeda recruits over a comparable period 23
So What? • The Enemy is motivated by a religious narrative • We cannot defeat him unless we understand how religion informs his operations and defines his strategic objectives and TTPs • ISIS and the GJM tell their recruits what they want them to do. Their Enemy Threat Doctrine must be incorporated into our Intell. Cycle. (Use Open Source!) • Self-Censoring the above truths endangers our citizens and operators and will prolong the war.
GOING DEEPER
Email: seb.gorka@gmail.com RELEVANT SITES: www.TheGorkaBriefing.com www.ThreatKnowledge.org www.CouncilOnGlobalSecurity.org
BACK-UP
But Why is ISIS-IS So Popular? 1924 Caliphate Dissolved 1928 Creation of the Muslim Brotherhood 1948 Creation of Israel, loss of Palestine 1979 Soviet Invasion of AFG Iranian Revolution and the Siege of Mecca (MAK, proto-AQ, created) 1989 Soviet Withdrawal from AFG 1990/1 Fall of USSR and Gulf War I – Modern Jihad goes from Int. Unconventional Warfare Organization to Global Terrorist Ideology and Brand
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