Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2016 Earnings Conference Call February - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2016 Earnings Conference Call

February 14, 2017

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Safe Harbor Statement & Non-GAAP Information

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Safe Harbor Statement This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, including, in particular, statements about future events, future financial performance including earnings estimates, plans, strategies, expectations, prospects, competitive environment, regulation, and cost and availability of raw materials. Forward-looking statements include all statements that are not historical facts and can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as the words “may,” “will,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “estimate,” “plan,” “intend” or the negative of these terms or similar expressions. These forward-looking statements have been based on our current views with respect to future events and financial performance. Our actual financial performance could differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements due to the inherent uncertainty of estimates, forecasts and projections, and our financial performance may be better or worse than anticipated. Given these uncertainties, you should not put undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. All of the forward-looking statements are qualified in their entirety by reference to the factors discussed under “Risk Factors” in Part I, Item 1A of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2015 and our other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Forward- looking statements represent our estimates and assumptions only as of the date that they were made. We do not undertake any duty to update the forward-looking statements, and the estimates and assumptions associated with them, after the date of this presentation, except to the extent required by applicable securities laws. Non-GAAP Information These materials include certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to the “Investors” section of our website at www.drpeppersnapple.com to find a reconciliation

• f such non-GAAP financial measures to their most direct GAAP counterpart.

Definitions Please refer to the definitions included in our February 14, 2017 earnings release and the attachments thereto (the “earnings release”) for the definitions of Core Earnings, Core EPS and certain other terms used herein.

2016 Key Accomplishments

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• Build the Brands

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Unlocked growth across our priority brands with strong, relevant communications (Diet Dr Pepper L’il Sweet, Canada Dry relaxation and Clamato Michelada)



Provided both product and packaging innovation to meet consumers’ needs (7.5oz slim cans in DSD, new offerings of Straight Up Tea and sparkling waters, Mott’s and Hawaiian Punch pouches)

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Continued to hone our internal MROI process to ensure we continually optimize marketing investments

• Announced acquisition of Bai



Closed on January 31, 2017

• Gained or maintained distribution and availability on core SKUs in key packages

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Grocery – Canada Dry +~1.5 pts; Snapple flat; Mott’s +5 pts on single-serve; Clamato 16oz glass +~1 pt

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Convenience – CSDs Flat; Snapple 16oz Premium glass +~1.5 pts; Clamato 16oz glass +~1pt

• Increased immediate consumption availability

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+~44k new fountain valves

• Rapid Continuous Improvement (RCI) delivering growth and productivity

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Closed ~12,000 voids on Dr Pepper smaller CSD packages

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7UP Lean track improved performance of the brand in the back half of the year

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Allied Brand priority SKU volume up over 30% due to void closures

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Reduced route delivery driver turnover 14% in 2016 with long-term sustainability

• Returned $905 million dollars to shareholders

Source: IRI; Internal company reporting

Q4, 2016 Price/Mix Up +3%... Total BCS Volume Flat

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NCB’s

• 1%
• 3%
• 5%
• 2%

+13% Water +8% All Other

• 10%

CSD’s +1%

• 1%

+3%

• 1%

+7% +8% +1% All Other

• 4%

Q4 Volume BCS1 Change

1BCS (Bottler Case Sales) volume as defined in the earnings release.

2017 Priorities

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• Build the Brands



Communicating against the needs and demand spaces of our priority brands where we have the right to win in the marketplace

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Providing Bai with the support and resources necessary to accelerate their strong growth trajectory and innovation pipeline

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Continuing focus on R&D investments and providing consumers with balanced solutions across our portfolio

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Maximizing marketing return on investment

• Executional Excellence

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Integrating communication, innovation and execution behind our priority brands

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Increasing Dr Pepper’s presence in on-premise

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Expanding distribution and availability of CSD smaller packages, Snapple and Bai

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Increasing our single-serve mix of CSDs, Snapple and Clamato in higher margin channels

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Participating in fast-growing categories with our Allied brand portfolio, including FIJI water, Body Armor, Core Hydration, High Brew and Vita Coco

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Continuing to outperform the market in Mexico with Penafiel, Clamato and Squirt

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Building capabilities in e-commerce

• Rapid Continuous Improvement

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Driving breakthrough change across the business through Lean tracks, led by key leaders, to support GOAL deployment

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Integrating Visual Management across the organization to drive GOAL metrics

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Implementing business-led RCI at a localized level

2017 Activation and Innovation

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Welcome Bai

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Q4 and Full Year 2016 Results

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% Change vs. 2015 Volume (BCS) Flat Flat 1% 1% Net sales 2% 3% 3% 4% Segment Operating Profit 2% 2% 5% 6% Core Operating Income2 -1% Flat 5% 6% Core EPS3 4% 5% 9% 10% Fourth Quarter FY

Currency Currency Reported Neutral1 Reported Neutral1

1 Currency neutral (Translation). Refer to the Definitions section of our earnings release for details on how the company calculates currency neutral metrics. 2 Core Operating Income is a non-GAAP financial measure that is defined as Income from Operations adjusted for the unrealized mark-to-market impact of commodity derivatives and certain items that are excluded for comparison to prior

year periods.

3 Core EPS is a non-GAAP financial measure that is defined as EPS adjusted for the unrealized mark-to-market impact of commodity derivatives and certain items that are excluded for comparison to prior year periods.

Reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures can be found under the “Investors” section of our website at www.drpeppersnapple.com.

Other Financial Items

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Fav/(Unfav) Change vs. 2015

Below-the-line items ($ million) Q4 FY

• Corporate ex. mark-to-market & Bai acquisition costs $(6)

$(8)

• Commodity mark-to-market changes 11

57

• Net Interest Expense

(14) (29)

• Reported Tax Rate

35.4% 33.8% Cash Flow ($ million) FY 2016 FY 2015

• Cash from operating activities

$939 $991

• Capital spending

180 179

• Cash returns to shareholders

– Dividends

386 355

– Share repurchases

519 521

2017 Full Year Guidance

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• Sales volumes expected to be up approximately 2%

–

The Bai acquisition is expected to add about 1 point of this growth

• Net Sales expected to be up approximately 4.5%

–

Foreign currency translation expected to reduce Net Sales by over 1%; the Bai acquisition is expected to add about 3 points of growth to net sales in 2017

• Full year Core EPS1 expected to be approximately $4.44 to $4.54, inclusive of the following items:

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Expected Net Sales and Operating Profit associated with the acquisition of Bai is now expected to be better than previously communicated in November of 2016, however non-cash purchase price accounting adjustments are expected make the acquisition $0.10 dilutive to Core EPS.

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Collectively, foreign currency translation and transaction are expected to reduce Core EPS by $0.11.

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Recent events affecting Mexico lead us to reduce our 2017 Core EPS expectation by $0.04.

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Excluding the Bai acquisition, packaging and ingredient costs are expected to be inflationary by approximately 0.5% on a constant volume/mix basis.

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Core Tax rate of approximately 34.5%, inclusive of a favorable accounting change associated with stock compensation expense that is expected to increase Core EPS by $0.07.

• Strong free cash flow2, capable of funding both a 9.4% dividend increase and common stock repurchases of

$450 million to $500 million

• Net CAPEX approximately 3% of Net Sales

1 Core EPS is a non-GAAP financial measure that is defined as EPS adjusted for the unrealized mark-to-market impact of commodity derivatives and certain items that are excluded for comparison to prior year periods.

Reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures can be found under the “Investors” section of our website at www.drpeppersnapple.com.

2 Free Cash Flow is a non-GAAP financial measure that is defined as net cash provided by operating activities adjusted for capital spending and certain items excluded for comparison to prior year periods.

Key Takeaways

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• Driving aligned communication, innovation and execution across our key

priority brands

• Providing Bai with the tools and support necessary to accelerate their strong

growth trajectory and innovation pipeline

• Selectively adding to our allied brand portfolio to participate in fast growing

categories

• Driving improvements in growth and productivity across the business with

Rapid Continuous Improvement

• Remain committed to returning excess cash to shareholders over time

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