Foresighting to guide scientific investment and preparation for a - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
foresighting to guide scientific investment and
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Foresighting to guide scientific investment and preparation for a - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Mar 27, 2024 531 likes •795 views

Foresighting to guide scientific investment and preparation for a disrupted future Alistair J. Hobday 1 , Fabio Boschetti 2 , Chris Moeseneder 3 , Cindy Bessey 2 , Cathy Bulman 1 , Stephanie Contardo 2 , Christopher Cvitanovic 1 , Jeffery Dambacher

slide-1
SLIDE 1

Alistair J. Hobday1, Fabio Boschetti2, Chris Moeseneder3, Cindy Bessey2, Cathy Bulman1, Stephanie Contardo2, Christopher Cvitanovic1, Jeffery Dambacher4, Leo Dutra3

, Beth

Fulton1, Dale Kolody1, Andrew Lenton1, L. Richard Little1, Bruce Mapstone1, Karlie McDonald1, John Parslow1, Eva E. Plaganyi3, Heidi Pethybridge1, Peter Rothlisberg3, Joanna Strzelecki2, Robert L. Stephenson5, Peter Thompson1, Ingrid van Putten1

Foresighting to guide scientific investment and preparation for a disrupted future

slide-2
SLIDE 2

Why foresighting? Why strategic planning?

  • Strategic planning
  • Planning by organisations or sectors aimed at improving the long-term

effectiveness of operations. Commonly based on some form of macro- environmental analysis of social, technological and political trends, or scenarios which narrate internal and external drivers for future development

  • Quantitative – model-based, including forecasts
  • Qualitative – for complex systems

– Visioning – Narratives – Foresights

slide-3
SLIDE 3

Value of foresighting

  • People
  • Training staff to be forward looking, nimble, proactive
  • Encourage wide reading and out of box thinking
  • Organisation
  • Responsive to emerging trends
  • Society
  • Is this the future you want?
slide-4
SLIDE 4

Strategic Foresighting

‘a structured process for exploring alternative future states’ (Cook et al. 2014)

slide-5
SLIDE 5

Our method

  • Repeatable approach, iterated in face-to-face discussion
  • Recipe (3-4 pages)
  • Background info
  • Scenario(s)
  • Indicators (5-10)
  • Outcomes

– Individuals – Science – Policy – Society

slide-6
SLIDE 6

Two groups of foresights

Science in the 21st century

  • relevant to the wider context of the

scientific research endeavour

1. Rationing of air travel 2. Privatization of science 3. Trans-disciplinarity and participatory governance 4. Advances in automation & Artificial Intelligence (AI) 5. Social media as truth 6. Rise of populism 7. Sharing science in a ‘gig’ economy

Marine Resource Management

  • relevant to the management of

fisheries, aquaculture and biodiversity

1. Hi-tech precision fishing 2. Blue revolution 3. Rigid coastal planning & settlement policies 4. Aquaculture and social license to operate 5. Rise of ocean protection 6. Fast climate change 7. Energized conservation due to space travel

slide-7
SLIDE 7

Example 1 – Science in the 21st Century

Science in the gig economy

  • Will we outsource?
  • Will there be a Uber equivalent?
  • As for coding jobs already

Indicators

1. Increase in use of casual staff on projects 2. Increase in individual research businesses – individuals

  • ffering “gig” services, such as editing, data entry,

collection, and design. 3. Payments for citizen science – currently free – are demanded by citizens. 4. Development of a clearing house for the matching of workers to agency scientists (e.g. Turk) 5. Our colleagues begin to run their projects this way

slide-8
SLIDE 8

Example 2 – Marine resource management

Rise of hi-tech precision fishing

  • Increased sensorization of natural

world

  • Increased processing capacity
  • Increasingly networked world

Possible outcomes

  • Corporatization of fishing industry
  • Strong profit motivation
  • Reduced costs e.g. labour
  • Dynamic management needed

Indicators

1. Number of fisheries managed by ITQs, catch shares

  • r IQEs exceeds 25%

2. Nominal fishing effort (fishing power increases). 3. Nominal wild capture in Australia increases as bycatch decreases 4. Employment in the wild capture fishing industry declines 33% 5. Number of realtime (RT) or near real time (NRT) fisheries rises

slide-9
SLIDE 9

Precision fishing – coming soon?

slide-10
SLIDE 10

Indicators - Web-based scoring

slide-11
SLIDE 11

Indicators considered likely in near future

12 |

2018 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Year with 90% likelihood

50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Frequency

>2050 Never

2018 2019

  • Scoring in 2018
  • 18 people
  • 14 scenarios
  • 85 indicators
  • 1190 “years” selected
  • Scoring in 2019
  • 18 people (14 from 2018)
  • 14 scenarios
  • 85 indicators
  • 1190 “years” selected
slide-12
SLIDE 12

Comparison across years

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 The rationing of air travel The rise of ocean protection Privatization of science Transforming silos ce as a profession vulnerable to disruptio nd policy discourse: Is the growth of soc Astronaut views grow cooperation on earth Out of the frying pan The Skynet Future The Blue revolution Dogmatism rules, OK Gig Economy and Science Settlements divided Aquaculture divided Mean year of 90% likelihood for foresight (Year 2019) 5 10 15 20 25 Percent of "Never" reponses

15% 0% % “Never” Year the foresight is likely

slide-13
SLIDE 13

Example result

Presenter name | Research Program name 14 |

2018 2019

slide-14
SLIDE 14

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Year with 90% likelihood

1 2 3 4 5 6

Indicator The rationing of air travel

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Year with 90% likelihood

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Indicator The rise of ocean protection

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Year with 90% likelihood

1 2 3 4 5

Indicator Privatization of science

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Year with 90% likelihood

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Indicator Transforming silos

2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Year with 90% likelihood

1 2 3 4 5

Indicator Is science as a profession vulnerable to disruptio

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Year with 90% likelihood

1 2 3 4 5 6

Indicator Science and policy discourse: Is the growth of soc

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Year with 90% likelihood

1 2 3 4 5

Indicator Astronaut views grow cooperation on earth

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Year with 90% likelihood

1 2 3 4 5

Indicator Out of the frying pan

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Year with 90% likelihood

1 2 3 4 5

Indicator The Skynet Future

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Year with 90% likelihood

1 2 3 4 5

Indicator The Blue revolution

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Year with 90% likelihood

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Indicator Dogmatism rules, OK

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Year with 90% likelihood

1 2 3 4 5

Indicator Gig Economy and Science

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Year with 90% likelihood

1 2 3 4 5

Indicator Settlements divided

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Year with 90% likelihood

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Indicator Aquaculture divided

2018 2019

slide-15
SLIDE 15

Results – Collective patterns – 21st C Science

Presenter name | Research Program name 16 |

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year with 90% likelihood

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Percentage

A.

The rationing of air travel Privatization of science Transforming silos Is science as a profession vulnerable to disruptio Science and policy discourse: Is the growth of soc Dogmatism rules, OK Gig Economy and Science

Disruption by AI

slide-16
SLIDE 16

Results – Collective patterns (two years)

Presenter name | Research Program name 17 |

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year with 90% likelihood

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Percentage

A. A.

The rationing of air travel Privatization of science Transforming silos Is science as a profession vulnerable to disruptio Science and policy discourse: Is the growth of soc Dogmatism rules, OK Gig Economy and Science

slide-17
SLIDE 17

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year with 90% likelihood

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Percentage

B.

The rise of ocean protection Astronaut views grow cooperation on earth Out of the frying pan…. The Skynet Future The Blue revolution Settlements divided Aquaculture divided

Results – Collective patterns – Marine Mgt

Presenter name | Research Program name 18 |

slide-18
SLIDE 18

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year with 90% likelihood

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Percentage

B. B.

The rise of ocean protection Astronaut views grow cooperation on earth Out of the frying pan The Skynet Future The Blue revolution Settlements divided Aquaculture divided

Results – Collective patterns (two years)

Presenter name | Research Program name 19 |

slide-19
SLIDE 19

Results – Individual patterns

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Year with 90% likelihood

The rationing of air travel The rise of ocean protection Privatization of science Transforming silos Is science as a profession vulnerable to disruptio Science and policy discourse: Is the growth of soc Astronaut views grow cooperation on earth Out of the frying pan The Skynet Future The Blue revolution Dogmatism rules, OK Gig Economy and Science Settlements divided Aquaculture divided

Foresight

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 1516 17 18
slide-20
SLIDE 20

Scoring indicators for future scenarios

  • Hard
  • Repeatability OK…
  • By individual across foresights
  • R2 0.55 to 0.14 (n=22)
  • By foresight across individuals
  • R2: 0.41 to 0.05 (n=14)

Presenter name | Research Program name 21 |

R² = 0,5552 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065

Year 2019 (Year 2) Year 2018 (year 1)

Year 1 scores Year 2 scores

slide-21
SLIDE 21

Entropy for foresight scoring

  • Does an individual’s

selected years for each foresight reveal a propensity to imagine scenarios to occur sooner or later than other individuals? (1 = random)

Presenter name | Research Program name 22 |

slide-22
SLIDE 22

Detecting surprises - outliers

Given the selection of years by all respondents across all foresight indicators, does an individual’s score of a specific indicator look particularly surprising?

Information or mistake?

slide-23
SLIDE 23

Responses to foresight “predictions”

Informs our science

  • Do nothing
  • Reactive
  • Proactive
slide-24
SLIDE 24

Foresighting – Ocean FuturesTM

McDonald et al (2019). Earth's Future

slide-25
SLIDE 25

Our strategic planning – as a result of this process

  • We are responding to some futures
  • Directed funding into some AI/ML areas
  • Upskilling scientists in big data
  • Resisting the gig economy
  • Working on integrated management
  • Considering air travel options
  • We are taking this approach to stakeholders wanting

to prepare for an uncertain future

  • Fisheries RD&E plan for Australia (2020-2030)
  • Improving our own foresighting (superforecasters)
  • Short-term testing of our group

– We had no superforecasters…need wisdom of many people