Long Term Mitigation Scenarios For South Africa Alison Hughes, Bruno Merven Energy Research Centre University of Cape Town 1 ERC
South African Energy System Source: Energy Digest – Department of Energy, 2009 2 ERC
Primary Energy Supply (net of exports) TPES 2009: 6,550 PJ Nuclear Biomass 2% 7% Gas 2% Oil 19% Coal 70% 25% of Coal is exported 95% of Crude is imported, ~10% of oil products are imported 40% of gas is imported (this share is increasing) There is some export of electricity to the rest of the region 3 ERC
Final Energy Consumption in 2009 TFC 2009: 3140 PJ 2009 EB Agriculture 2% Other 5% Commerce 8% Coal Electricity 32% 25% Industry Residential 40% 17% Biomass 6% Transport Gas Oil 28% 4% 33% Most of Coal goes to industry with some use in residential and commercial Most Oil goes to transport with some use in Residential and Commercial Industry Consumes ~ 60%, Residential ~20% of Electricity, most of the rest goes to commercial 4 ERC
Structure of Existing Power System Elc Capacity in 2009 (Total: 42 GW) Hydro Pumped Nuclear 1% Storage 4% 4% OCGT 5.72% Coal 85% Coal Dominated System, almost entirely owned by State-Owned Utility - Eskom Eskom also owns and runs the Transmission system Distribution is partly done by Municipalities 5 ERC
Existing Refining Capacity CTL Plant is owned by private company: Sasol Refineries owned by international oil companies GTL plant owned by state-owned company: PetroSA 6 ERC
Structure of the Economy Industry Shares Overall Economy Coal mining Water 4% distribution AGRICULTUR Construction ELECTRICITY 2% 7% E 6% OTHER 3% MANUFACTURIN G 3% VEHICLES & Industry Other mining 30% TRANSPORT EQ 21% 6% MACHINERY 5% FOOD 11% METALS SERVICES TEXTILES 10% 67% 3% WOOD & PAPER NONMETALLIC PETROLEUM 5% MINERALS CHEMICALS REFINING 2% 10% 5% Services 2/3 of GDP Industry Sector quite well diversified with mining, chemicals, metals and food making 50% of Value added. 7 ERC
SA compared to other countries (motivation for LTMS 2003) Emissions per capita Emissions intensity tons CO2 / mill int'l $ 16 800 14 700 Deforestation t CO2-eq per person etc 600 12 500 10 400 300 8 200 6 100 - 4 a a l a d D 2 i c z i n l d C r i a i o r h n r f E W A B I C 0 O h t u South Brazil China India OECD World o S Africa Relative to the size of our population, emissions ‘per capita’ are high Emissions-intensity due to dependency on coal and inefficient use of energy 8 ERC
LTMS Objectives Two sets of key objectives: Robust, broadly supported recommendations for a long-term national climate policy Develop a sound analytical basis for SA’s negotiating position on post-2012 Outcome Cabinet endorsed (2008) peak, plateau and decline emissions trajectory Initiated a process to develop formal policy to adopt a legislative, regulatory and fiscal package 9 ERC
LTMS Process LTMS was a Cabinet-mandated process (2006) Led by Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism Scenario LTMS High Building Team Cabinet Cabinet Scenarios Level Memo Approval Document Group Research Energy Non-Energy Economic effects process Agriculture, forestry, etc 10 ERC
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Emissions scenario-building process 1. Two basic scenarios: 1. Growth Without Constraints (business as usual / baseline) 2. Required by Science – emissions reductions in line with requirement for global reduction of emissions 2. Modelling of mitigation options or ‘wedges’ 3. Combination of ‘wedges’ into several mitigation scenarios – moderate, cheaper wedges into ‘start now’, and more ambitious wedges into ‘scale up’ 4. Consideration of robustness of scenarios against possible global developments 12 ERC
SBT Challenges Sectoral growth and Economic Growth contribution to GDP 7% 100% 6% other GDP growth 5% GDP- varied growth 80% Trendline of growth 4% 60% 3% services 2% 40% 1% 20% Industry 0% Mining 0% 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 Agriculture 1993 2003 2013 2023 2033 2043 1000 GDP Population growth Commerce 800 Chrome Platinum 55 Non-M. Min . 600 Iron and Steel 50 Chemicals Millions Wood Prod. 45 400 Non-Ferrous Coal 40 Manganese 35 200 30 Iron Ore Diamonds 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 Copper Gold 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 13 ERC
SBT Challenges contd Household disaggregation (income and fuel) Rural / urban migration Electrification (rate and impact) Household income Energy intensity Increasing/decreasing Transport Road/rail Private/public Technology transfer Energy efficiency Sypply side technologies 14 ERC
Limit less eff vehicles 50 Nuclear, extended Escalating CO2 tax 300 Electric vehicles in 25 600 50 -R 4,404 150 SWH subsidy GWC grid 0 450 R 20 50 25 Synfuels methane 0 R 607 10 300 25 0 R 8 -R 208 R 42 5 0 150 Commercial efficiency 0 50 0 CCS 20 Mt 50 25 Electric vehicles with Manure management -R 203 10 nuclear, renewables 25 0 300 R 72 5 Biofuels -R 19 150 0 50 R 102 0 0 25 Biofuel subsidy Renewables, extended Aluminium R 524 50 300 10 0 R 0 25 5 150 R 697 0 R 92 0 0 All Medium Improved vehicle Enteric fermentation Hybrids 300 All Small Wedges 300 50 50 10 efficiency Wedges 150 150 5 25 25 R 50 -R 269 R 1,987 0 0 0 0 0 Subsidy for renewables Residential efficiency Reduced tillage 300 50 10 Waste management 150 25 5 -R 198 R 24 R 125 50 0 0 0 25 R 14 Renewables with learning, Cleaner coal 0 Afforestation 300 extended 50 10 5 150 25 R 39 Passenger modal shift R3 -R 5 50 0 0 0 25 Industrial efficiency Fire control -R 1,131 Synfuels CCS 2 Mt 300 0 10 50 R 476 150 5 Synfuels CCS 23 Mt 25 -R 34 -R 15 0 50 0 0 Nuclear Renewables 25 Coal mine methane 300 300 R 105 10 0 15 ERC R 346 150 150 5 R 18 R 52 0 0 0
Baseline and mitigation opportunities Aim: Baseline quantitatively defined in a transparent and scientific manner Criticism: “The method of determining the 2003 base year Estimate should be provided. It is understood that this was a projection from the 1994 data based on annual GDP growth” 16 ERC
MAPS - Mitigation actions plans and scenarios Low carbon development plans Accelerate commitment to mitigation action in key developing countries by building a broad base of support among domestic stakeholders and a sound evidence base Collaboration between developing country researchers Brazil, Peru, Chile, Colombia Support government mandated stakeholder process Robust analysis and research exchange 17 ERC
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Overview Energy supply LTMS Objective LTMS Process Modelling Challenges Output 19 ERC
Process Stakeholder Research Process Process Scenario Building Team Modelling teams – (SBT) - endorsed methods, energy, non-energy advised on and endorsed emissions; economic inputs and all technical effects; impacts of reports climate change on SA Government, Business, civil society 20 ERC
SA Energy Supply – 2003 Emissions intensity 7.2 (t CO2/capita) 0.7 (kg CO2/2000 US$ PPP) Electricity Nuclear Natural Coal 2% gas 3% 85% 59% crude oil 14% Renewabl es and waste Liquid Fuels 8% Coal 73% Coal 25% 51% TPES 21 ERC
Three different modelling processes: Energy emissions (MARKAL) Industrial process emissions Other non-energy emissions (agriculture, forestry, savanna thickening, etc) All modelling inputs, plus modelling methodology, discussed and endorsed by the SBT 22 ERC
Final emissions scenarios 23 ERC
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