For South Africa Alison Hughes, Bruno Merven Energy Research Centre - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Alison Hughes, Bruno Merven

Energy Research Centre University of Cape Town

Long Term Mitigation Scenarios

For South Africa

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South African Energy System

Source: Energy Digest – Department of Energy, 2009

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Primary Energy Supply (net of exports)

Coal 70% Oil 19% Gas 2% Biomass 7% Nuclear 2%

TPES 2009: 6,550 PJ  25% of Coal is exported  95% of Crude is imported, ~10% of oil products are imported  40% of gas is imported (this share is increasing)  There is some export of electricity to the rest of the region

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Final Energy Consumption in 2009

Industry 40% Transport 28% Residential 17% Commerce 8% Other 5% Agriculture 2%

2009 EB

Coal 32% Oil 33% Gas 4% Biomass 6% Electricity 25%

TFC 2009: 3140 PJ

 Most of Coal goes to industry with some use in residential and commercial  Most Oil goes to transport with some use in Residential and Commercial  Industry Consumes ~ 60%, Residential ~20% of Electricity, most of the rest goes to commercial

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Structure of Existing Power System

 Coal Dominated System, almost entirely owned by State-Owned Utility - Eskom  Eskom also owns and runs the Transmission system  Distribution is partly done by Municipalities

Coal 85% OCGT 5.72% Nuclear 4% Hydro 1% Pumped Storage 4%

Elc Capacity in 2009 (Total: 42 GW)

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Existing Refining Capacity

 CTL Plant is owned by private company: Sasol  Refineries owned by international oil companies  GTL plant owned by state-owned company: PetroSA

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Structure of the Economy

 Services 2/3 of GDP  Industry Sector quite well diversified with mining, chemicals, metals and food making 50% of Value added.

AGRICULTUR E 3% SERVICES 67% Industry 30%

Overall Economy

Coal mining 4% Other mining 21% FOOD 11% TEXTILES 3% WOOD & PAPER 5% PETROLEUM REFINING 5% CHEMICALS 10% NONMETALLIC MINERALS 2% METALS 10% MACHINERY 5% VEHICLES & TRANSPORT EQ 6% OTHER MANUFACTURIN G 3% ELECTRICITY 6% Water distribution 2% Construction 7%

Industry Shares

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SA compared to other countries (motivation for LTMS 2003)

Emissions per capita

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

South Africa Brazil China India OECD World

t CO2-eq per person

Deforestation etc

Emissions intensity

• 100

200 300 400 500 600 700 800

S

• u

t h A f r i c a B r a z i l C h i n a I n d i a O E C D W

• r

l d tons CO2 / mill int'l $

 Relative to the size of our population, emissions ‘per capita’ are high  Emissions-intensity due to dependency on coal and inefficient use of energy

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LTMS Objectives

 Two sets of key objectives:

• Robust, broadly supported recommendations for a

long-term national climate policy

• Develop a sound analytical basis for SA’s

negotiating position on post-2012

 Cabinet endorsed (2008) peak, plateau and decline emissions trajectory  Initiated a process to develop formal policy to adopt a legislative, regulatory and fiscal package

Outcome

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LTMS Process

 LTMS was a Cabinet-mandated process (2006)  Led by Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism

Cabinet Memo Cabinet Approval

Scenario Building Team

LTMS Scenarios Document High Level Group

Research

Energy process Non-Energy Agriculture, forestry, etc Economic effects

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Emissions scenario-building process

• 1. Two basic scenarios:

1. Growth Without Constraints (business as usual / baseline) 2. Required by Science – emissions reductions in line with requirement for global reduction of emissions

• 2. Modelling of mitigation options or ‘wedges’
• 3. Combination of ‘wedges’ into several mitigation

scenarios – moderate, cheaper wedges into ‘start now’, and more ambitious wedges into ‘scale up’

• 4. Consideration of robustness of scenarios against

possible global developments

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SBT Challenges

 Economic Growth  Population growth  Sectoral growth and contribution to GDP

Agriculture Mining Industry services

• ther

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1993 2003 2013 2023 2033 2043

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048

GDP growth GDP- varied growth Trendline of growth

30 35 40 45 50 55 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 Millions

200 400 600 800 1000 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 GDP Chemicals Platinum Diamonds Chrome Wood Prod. Non-M. Min. Iron and Steel Iron Ore Non-Ferrous Coal Manganese Copper Gold Commerce

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SBT Challenges contd

 Household disaggregation (income and fuel)

• Rural / urban migration
• Electrification (rate and impact)
• Household income

 Energy intensity

• Increasing/decreasing

 Transport

• Road/rail
• Private/public

 Technology transfer

• Energy efficiency
• Sypply side technologies

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150 300

R 102

Electric vehicles with nuclear, renewables 150 300

R 92

Renewables, extended 150 300

R 125

Subsidy for renewables 150 300

R 20

Nuclear, extended 150 300

• R 34

Industrial efficiency 150 300

R 18

Nuclear 150 300

R 52

Renewables 25 50

R 72 CCS 20 Mt

25 50

R 697 Biofuel subsidy

25 50

R 1,987 Hybrids

25 50

• R 5

Cleaner coal

25 50

• R 1,131

Passenger modal shift

25 50

R 524 Biofuels

25 50

• R 208

SWH subsidy

150 300

• R 269

Improved vehicle efficiency 25 50

R 607 Electric vehicles in GWC grid

25 50

• R 198

Residential efficiency

25 50

• R 203

Commercial efficiency All Medium Wedges 150 300 All Small Wedges 25 50

5 10

R 50 Enteric fermentation

5 10

• R 19

Manure management

5 10

R 24 Reduced tillage

25 50

R 14 Waste management

25 50

• R 15

Fire control

5 10

R 39 Afforestation

5 10

R 346 Coal mine methane

5 10

R 476 Synfuels CCS 2 Mt

5 10

R 8 Synfuels methane

5 10

R 0 Aluminium

25 50

• R 4,404

Limit less eff vehicles 25 50

R 105 Synfuels CCS 23 Mt

150 300 450 600

R 42 Escalating CO2 tax

150 300 Renewables with learning, extended

R3

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Baseline and mitigation opportunities

Aim: Baseline quantitatively defined in a transparent and scientific manner Criticism: “The method of determining the 2003 base year Estimate should be provided. It is understood that this was a projection from the 1994 data based on annual GDP growth”

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MAPS - Mitigation actions plans and scenarios

 Low carbon development plans  Accelerate commitment to mitigation action in key developing countries by building a broad base of support among domestic stakeholders and a sound evidence base  Collaboration between developing country researchers  Brazil, Peru, Chile, Colombia  Support government mandated stakeholder process  Robust analysis and research exchange

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Overview

 Energy supply  LTMS Objective  LTMS Process  Modelling Challenges  Output

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Process

Stakeholder Process

Scenario Building Team (SBT) - endorsed methods, advised on and endorsed inputs and all technical reports Government, Business, civil society

Research Process

Modelling teams – energy, non-energy emissions; economic effects; impacts of climate change on SA

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SA Energy Supply – 2003

 Emissions intensity

• 7.2 (t CO2/capita)
• 0.7 (kg CO2/2000 US$ PPP)

Natural gas 3% Nuclear 2% crude oil 14% Coal 73% Renewabl es and waste 8%

TPES Electricity Liquid Fuels

59% 25%

Coal 51% Coal 85%

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 Three different modelling processes:

• Energy emissions (MARKAL)
• Industrial process emissions
• Other non-energy emissions (agriculture, forestry,

savanna thickening, etc)  All modelling inputs, plus modelling methodology, discussed and endorsed by the SBT

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Final emissions scenarios