FOOD CONSUMPTION PATTERNS AND PRICES IN POOR COUNTRIES DEREK - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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FOOD CONSUMPTION PATTERNS AND PRICES IN POOR COUNTRIES DEREK HEADEY, IFPRI October 31, 2017 QUESTIONS Where do poor consumers get their food from? How are consumption patterns changing? What are the major problems with infant diets? AS

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FOOD CONSUMPTION PATTERNS AND PRICES IN POOR COUNTRIES

DEREK HEADEY, IFPRI

October 31, 2017

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Where do poor consumers get their food from? How are consumption patterns changing? What are the major problems with infant diets?

QUESTIONS

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Percent of Monetary Value of Food Consumed from Different Categories

Ethiopia 2004/05, Uganda 2009/10, Tanzania 2010/11, Mozambique 2008/09, Malawi 2001/11, South Africa 2010

AS INCOMES RISE, PROCESSED FOODS RISE

Source: Global Panel on Agriculture and Food Systems for Nutrition (2016) “Food Systems and diets: Facing the challenges of the 21st century” Data compiled by authors, based on data in Tschirley et al. (2015). Unprocessed includes legumes, maize grain, vegetables, fresh fish. Processed low includes maize meal, milled rice, butchered meats, dried fish; Processed high includes packaged snacks, refined vegetable oils, dairy, food away from home

The food private sector already reaches consumers in both rural and urban poor populations

Purchased: High Processed Purchased: Low Processed Purchased: Unprocessed Own Production

Projected Change to 2040 (All)

100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%

2010 2040

Today: Rural Today: Urban

100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%

$0-2 Very low $2-4 Low $4-10 Middle $10-20 Upper Middle >$20 High

100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%

$0-2 Very low $2-4 Low $4-10 Middle $10-20 Upper Middle >$20 High

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Consumption Prevalence* (%)

INFANTS HAVE VERY LOW DIET DIVERSITY

58 19 28 19 14 6 11 44 29 25 21 9 46 5 28 14 8 5 32 15 6 5 3 7

20 40 60 80 100

Indonesia India Bangladesh Nigeria Ethiopia Burkina Faso

Overall Minimum Diet Diversity Cow’s Milk Eggs Fortified complementary food (infant cereals)

*Consumption recall based on past 24-hours, questions e.g.,: Any Commercially fortified baby food like Cerelac, Nutren, Frisolac H, Weatabix, etc.?

Poor diets are one of the major reasons children experiencing poor growth over the critical 6-23 month window of development

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Price-Per-Calorie Ratio Relative to Cheapest Staple1

POOR HOUSEHOLDS FACE HIGH PRICES FOR KEY FOODS

Diversifying diets is difficult due to high cost of other (nutritious) foods relative to staples

Source: World Bank International Comparison Program (United Nations Statistical Commission) 1. Staple of comparison is rice in India and Brazil, (packaged) bread in the U.S., maize flour for

Nigeria. 2. Powdered milk is more consistent across countries, at ~3-5x cheapest cereal in these sample countries

Fresh Milk2 Pasta/Noodles Egg Fortified complementary food (infant cereals) 40 30 20 10

Nigeria India Brazil USA

3.8 2.2 1.0 3.7 7.0 5.5 2.0 9.6 6.1 4.7 2.0 11.1 13.3 8.5 1.6 30.3

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Consumption of fortified complementary foods within last 24-hour period

CONSUMERS AND AFFORDABILITY

Increasing relative affordability can increase consumption, but the market fails to make some nutritious foods more affordable

100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 10 20 30 40 50

Price of Fortified Complementary Food (Ratio to Cheapest Staple Cereal) USA1 Indonesia India Guatemala Bangladesh Ethiopia Nigeria

1) US consumption data does not come from DHS survey, estimate based on expert interviews Source: World Bank International Comparison Program (United Nations Statistical Commission) with DHS consumption data 6