FIVE YEAR FINANCIAL FORECAST ANALYSIS MAY, 2020 Presen esented Ma - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Presen esented Ma May 21, 21, 2020 2020

FIVE‐YEAR FINANCIAL FORECAST ANALYSIS MAY, 2020

www.woodmoreschools.com

www.woodmoreschools.com

Actual Forecasted FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 Revenues 1.010 General Property Tax (Real Estate) 4,391,661 4,039,260 4,016,911 4,010,000 3,905,000 3,680,000 3,455,000 3,470,000 1.020 Tangible Personal Property Tax 318,486 447,829 905,000 1,385,000 1,355,000 1,325,000 1,295,000 1.035 Unrestricted State Grants-in-Aid 4,889,154 4,892,560 4,902,668 4,725,000 4,550,000 4,895,000 4,895,000 4,895,000 1.040 Restricted State Grants-in-Aid 39,046 23,227 28,077 28,000 28,000 28,000 28,000 28,000 1.050 Property Tax Allocation 933,700 806,222 718,839 605,000 585,000 585,000 585,000 585,000 1.060 All Other Revenues 805,052 1,123,222 1,274,590 1,315,000 1,200,000 1,200,000 1,200,000 1,200,000 1.070 Total Revenues 11,058,613 11,202,977 11,388,914 11,588,000 11,653,000 11,743,000 11,488,000 11,473,000 Other Financing Sources

2.04,.05Transfers, Advances – In

133,275 123,500 111,376 194,000 140,000 175,000 215,000 255,000 2.060 All Other Financing Sources 2,000 46,347 65,639 108,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 2.080 Total Revenues and Other Financing Sources 11,193,888 11,372,824 11,565,929 11,890,000 11,853,000 11,973,000 11,753,000 11,773,000 Expenditures 3.010 Personal Services 5,567,191 5,609,502 6,275,822 6,550,000 6,740,000 6,725,000 6,810,000 6,910,000 3.020 Employees' Retirement/Insurance Benefits 2,208,739 2,239,076 2,344,174 2,630,000 2,710,000 2,840,000 2,985,000 3,150,000 3.030 Purchased Services 1,833,270 2,149,791 2,113,226 2,000,000 2,165,000 2,230,000 2,280,000 2,330,000 3.040 Supplies and Materials 319,680 481,641 467,634 445,000 475,000 485,000 495,000 505,000 3.050 Capital Outlay 170,697 142,073 196,755 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 4.300 Other Objects 142,331 175,812 177,228 185,000 190,000 195,000 200,000 205,000 4.500 Total Expenditures 10,241,908 10,797,895 11,574,839 11,860,000 12,330,000 12,525,000 12,820,000 13,150,000

5.01,.02Transfers/Advances-Out

123,500 183,142 284,064 140,000 175,000 215,000 255,000 295,000

5.050 Total Expenditures and Other Financing Uses

10,365,408 10,981,037 11,858,903 12,000,000 12,505,000 12,740,000 13,075,000 13,445,000 6.010 Excess of Revenues and Other Financing Sources over (under) Expenditures and Other Financing Uses 828,480 391,787 (292,974) (110,000) (652,000) (767,000) (1,322,000) (1,672,000) 7.010 Cash Balance July 1 - Excluding Proposed

Renewal/Replacement and New Levies

1,271,867 2,100,347 2,492,134 2,199,160 2,089,160 1,437,160 670,160 (651,840) 7.020 Cash Balance June 30 2,100,347 2,492,134 2,199,160 2,089,160 1,437,160 670,160 (651,840) (2,323,840) 8.01 Estimated Encumbrances June 30 156,774 184,135 149,850 75,000 75,000 75,000 75,000 75,000 10.01 Fund Balance June 30 for Certification of Appropriations 1,943,573 2,307,999 2,049,310 2,014,160 1,362,160 595,160 (726,840) (2,398,840) 11.02 Property Tax – Renewal or Replacement

300,000 600,000 600,000

11.30 Cumulative Balance of Renewal Levies

300,000 900,000 1,500,000

12.01 Fund Balance June 30 for Certification

• f Contracts, Salary Schedules, etc.

1,943,573 2,307,999 2,049,310 2,014,160 1,362,160 895,160 173,160 (898,840)

FORECAST SUMMARY

REVENUE, VENUE, EXPENDI NDITURE URES AND AND CASH CASH BA BALANC NCE

FY FY 2020 2020 FY FY 2021 2021 FY FY 2022 2022 FY FY 2023 2023 FY FY 2024 2024 Revenue $11,890,000 $11,890,000 $11,853,000 $11,853,000 $11,973,000 $11,973,000 $11,753,000 $11,753,000 $11,773,000 $11,773,000 Expe Expenditu tures $12,000,000 $12,000,000 $12,505,0 $12,505,000 00 $12,740,000 $12,740,000 $13,075,000 $13,075,000 $13,445,000 $13,445,000 Over/(U er/(Under) r) ($110,000) ($110,000) ($652,000) ($652,000) ($767,000) ($767,000) ($1,322, ($1,322,000) 000) ($1,672,000) $1,672,000) Cash Cash Bal Balance $2,089,160 $2,089,160 $1,437,160 $1,437,160 $670,160 $670,160 ($651,840) $651,840) ($2,323,840) ($2,323,840)

www.woodmoreschools.com

FORECAST SUMMARY

REVENUE, VENUE, EXPENDI NDITURE URES AND AND CASH CASH BA BALANC NCE (Incl ncludes udes re renewa wal le levie vies)

FY FY 2020 2020 FY FY 2021 2021 FY FY 2022 2022 FY FY 2023 2023 FY FY 2024 2024 Revenue $11,890,000 $11,890,000 $11,853,000 $11,853,000 $12,273,000 $12,273,000 $12,353,000 $12,353,000 $12,373,000 $12,373,000 Expe Expenditu tures $12,000,000 $12,000,000 $12,505,0 $12,505,000 00 $12,740,000 $12,740,000 $13,075,000 $13,075,000 $13,445,000 $13,445,000 Over/(U er/(Under) r) ($110,000) ($110,000) ($652,000) ($652,000) ($467,000) ($467,000) ($722,0 ($722,000) 00) ($1,072,000) ($1,072,000) Cash Cash Bal Balance $2,089,160 $2,089,160 $1,437,16 $1,437,160 $970,160 $970,160 $248,160 $248,160 ($823,840) $823,840)

www.woodmoreschools.com

www.woodmoreschools.com

LINE 1.010, 11.020 General Property Tax Real Estate

• Collections for class I real estate (Res/Ag) and class II real estate (all other)
• Calendar year 2018 was a reappraisal year in Ottawa County & 2021 is an update year
• Calendar year 2018 was an update year in Sandusky County & 2021 is a reappraisal yr
• $600,000 Emergency Levy of five years was approved in November, 2016
• $829,000 Emergency Levy of five years was approved in May, 2019
• Changes in the Current Agricultural Use Value (CAUV) essentially only affects

collections on our 4.0 inside mills.

• The district is currently on the “20 Mill floor” established by HB920 in 1976

Revenue Factors

Actual Forecasted FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 Avg Chg FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 1.010 General Property Tax (Real Estate) 4,391,661 4,039,260 4,016,911

• 4.3%

4,010,000 3,905,000 3,680,000 3,455,000 3,470,000 1.020 “Public Utility” Personal Property Tax 318,486 447,829 905,000 1,385,000 1,355,000 1,325,000 1,295,000 1.050 Property Tax Allocation 933,700 806,222 718.839

• 12.2%

605,000 585,000 585,000 585,000 585,000 11.020 Property Tax - Renewals 300,000 600,000 600,000

www.woodmoreschools.com

Line 1.020 Public Utility Personal Property Tax

• Began receiving NEXUS revenue in Calendar Year 2020
• Initial assessed value is $48,009,180
• NEXUS appealed for the valuation to be set at $22,655,320
• Taxes are not owed on the appealed amount and NEXUS did choose to tender

pay their taxes, paying the amount due on $22,655,320

• This type of appeal can be a several year process to resolve
• Will have no affect on our state funding in FY20 and FY21 (no formula is being used)

Revenue Factors (cont.)

Actual Forecasted FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 Avg Chg FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 1.010 General Property Tax (Real Estate) 4,391,661 4,039,260 4,016,911

• 4.3%

4,010,000 3,905,000 3,680,000 3,455,000 3,470,000 1.020 “Public Utility” Personal Property Tax 318,486 447,829 905,000 1,385,000 1,355,000 1,325,000 1,295,000 1.050 Property Tax Allocation 933,700 806,222 718.839

• 12.2%

605,000 585,000 585,000 585,000 585,000 11.020 Property Tax - Renewals 300,000 600,000 600,000

www.woodmoreschools.com

Line 1.050 Property Tax Allocation

• Tangible Personal Property reimbursements are shown below

Revenue Factors (cont.)

Actual Forecasted FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 Avg Chg FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 1.010 General Property Tax (Real Estate) 4,391,661 4,039,260 4,016,911

• 4.3%

4,010,000 3,905,000 3,680,000 3,455,000 3,470,000 1.020 “Public Utility” Personal Property Tax 318,486 447,829 905,000 1,385,000 1,355,000 1,325,000 1,295,000 1.050 Property Tax Allocation 933,700 806,222 718.839

• 12.2%

605,000 585,000 585,000 585,000 585,000 11.020 Property Tax - Renewals 300,000 600,000 600,000

Fiscal Year Reimbursement Received Fiscal Year Reimbursement Received 2021 $0.00 2015 $588,052.06 2020 $18,842.38 2014 $588,052.06 2019 $118,284.76 2013 $588,052.06 2018 $217,727.16 2012 $774,825.72 2017 $317,169.56 2011 $1,078,584.73 2016 $452,610.82 2010 $1,064,469.25

www.woodmoreschools.com

CY2019 values for CY2020 collections Total Valuation $219,810,490 4.00 Inside Mills collects fully Residential / AG $148,219,470 Public Utility Personal collects fully All other $13,562,200 Public Utility Personal increased $49,261,510 Public Utility Personal $57,891,990 Voted rate Res/Ag Effective Rate All other effective rate Total tax % of total Inside Mills 4.00 4.00 4.00 $879,242 12.48% 1976 Current Expense 23.20 10.702577 14.702953 $3,130,841 44.43% 1980 Current Expense 6.50 3.564723 5.774294 $983,762 13.96% 1986 Current Expense 3.00 1.732725 2.879175 $469,942 6.67% Emergency $829,000 4.20 $923,204 13.11% Emergency $600,000 3.00 $659,431 9.36% Total General Fund 20.000025 $7,046,422 Change in valuation from CY18 to CY19: $2,169,080; CY19 to CY20: $50,184,610 Change in revenue from CY18 to CY19: $73,098; CY19 to CY20: $1,950,760

www.woodmoreschools.com

Revenue Factors (cont.)

Change in Agricultural and Residential Valuations

Real Estate Real Estate Real Estate Agricultural Residential Total Res/Agr. Sandusky ‐ CY17 for CY18 $26,606,930 $52,257,920 $78,864,850 Sandusky ‐ CY18 for CY19 $22,272,330 $57,334,600 $79,606,930 Ottawa ‐ CY17 for CY18 $20,402,290 $46,925,430 $67,327,720 Ottawa ‐ CY18 for CY19 $17,528,500 $50,331,730 $67,860,230 Total ‐ CY17 for CY18 $47,009,220 $99,183,350 $146,192,570 Total ‐ CY18 for CY19 $39,800,830 $107,666,330 $147,467,160 Percentage Change ‐15.33% 8.55% Dollar Change ‐$7,208,390 $8,482,980 $1,274,590

www.woodmoreschools.com

Line 1.035 Unrestricted State Grants‐in‐Aid

• State Foundation funding, casino revenue (profits from racinos are not distributed)
• Casino revenue for FY16 was not received until FY17
• Total casino revenue received since January, 2013 is $391,934.40
• FY20 & FY21 are set at the FY19 final funding amount (HB 166). No formula is being used.

Line 1.040 Restricted State Grants‐in‐Aid

• Career Tech funding (weighted), and Economic Disadvantaged funding (reduced in FY18)

Line 1.060 All Other Operating Revenue

• Includes open enrollment in, excess/catastrophic cost revenue and investment earnings
• Beginning in FY18, the 009 Uniform Supply Fund for instructional fees was eliminated.

The revenue is now in the general fund and is estimated at $70,000.

Revenue Factors (cont.)

Actual Forecasted FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 Avg Chg FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 1.035 Unrestricted State Grants 4,889,154 4,892,560 4,902,668 0.1% 4,725,000 4,550,000 4,895,000 4,895,000 4,895,000 1.040 Restricted State Grants 39,046 23,227 28,077

• 9.8%

28,000 28,000 28,000 28,000 28,000 1.060 All Other Revenue 805,052 1,123,222 1,274,590 26.5% 1,315,000 1,200,000 1,200,000 1,200,000 1,200,000

www.woodmoreschools.com

FY20 and FY21 FY19 FY20 as of May 5, 2020 (effective for the 3 remaining payments

www.woodmoreschools.com

B – Student Wellness and Success Funding (currently only in place for this budget)

• Not included in the forecast (estimated increase is to $95,020 for FY21)
• New funding with specific uses that can supplant existing expenditures or

supplement current programming

• Any supplements that will continue beyond FY21 may be out of the

General Fund

• 400 million statewide allocated for FY21

www.woodmoreschools.com

Line 3.010 Personal Services

• WEA is contracted through FY20 and OAPSE is contracted through FY21
• In 2016, began outsourcing substitute staffing; in FY19, brought it back
• At this time, 6 employees are retiring or resigning at year end, still assessing needs
• Forecasted years assume no further changes in staffing levels or retirements

Line 3.020 Employees’ Retirement/Insurance Benefits

• Includes retirement, all insurances, Medicare, tuition reimbursement, Workers’

Compensation and unemployment

• Health insurance premiums increased 6.19% in January, 2020 (had forecasted 10%).
• New Wellness program begins with FY21 rates
• One employee added Oct, 19 due to turning 26 (5 more employees under 26)
• Forecast projects a 10% increase in insurance premiums for all future years.

Expenditure Factors

Actual Forecasted FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 Avg Chg FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 3.010 Personal Services 5,567,191 5,609,502 6,275,822 6.3% 6,550,000 6,740,000 6,725,000 6,810,000 6,910,000 3.020 Employees' Retirement/Insu rance Benefits 2,239,076 2,239,076 2,344,174 3.0% 2,630,000 2,710,000 2,840,000 2,985,000 3,150,000

www.woodmoreschools.com

Line 3.030 Purchased Services

• Includes, but not limited to, utilities, legal fees, labor for repairs, mileage, meeting

expenses, postage, advertising, tuition to other districts, excess costs, outgoing open enrollment, community school, all special education services, property/fleet insurance. Line 3.040 Supplies and Materials

• Includes, but not limited to, all supplies, parts for repairs, software, intervention

materials, textbooks, all maintenance supplies, bus fuel and tires

• Textbook budget: $115,000 total in forecast; will be moving some future purchases to

the Permanent Improvement Fund.

• Part of the Technology 1:1 initiative is in this line item ($40,000/year budgeted).
• Other expenditures will be in Capital Outlay and/or the Permanent Improvement

Fund (PI).

Expenditure Factors (cont.)

Actual Forecasted FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 Avg Chg FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 3.030 Purchased Services 1,833,270 2,149,791 2,113,226 7.8% 2,000,000 2,165,000 2,230,000 2,280,000 2,330,000 3.040 Supplies and Materials 319,680 481,641 467,634 23.9% 445,000 475,000 485,000 495,000 505,000

www.woodmoreschools.com

Line 3.050 Capital Outlay

• Includes Technology purchases to support the district’s 1:1 initiative which began in FY18

with 6th and 9th grades and includes all grades 6:12 in FY19.

• Beginning in FY20, yearly chrome book purchases are moved to the PI Fund, along

with the flat panels being replaced over 4 years in the PreK‐8 building

• Results in a total reduction of $400,000 in this line of the forecast

Line 4.300 Other Objects

• Includes, but not limited to, liability insurance, professional dues and memberships, audit

costs, bank fees, auditor fees for tax collections and elections Line 5.010 and 5.020 Transfers/Advances Out

• Includes amounts advanced to the Food Service fund and to the 300 Athletics fund.

Transferred $160,000 to Food Service in FY18 to eliminate a deficit balance.

Expenditure Factors (cont.)

Actual Forecasted FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 Avg Chg FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 3.050 Capital Outlay 170,697 142,073 196,755 10.9% 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 4.300 Other Objects 142,331 175,812 177,228 12.2% 185,000 190,000 195,000 200,000 205,000 5.01 5.02 Transfers Advances Out 123,500 183,142 284,064 830.1% 140,000 175,000 215,000 255,000 295,000

Changes in State Funding Due to Student Movement

FY FY 2020 2020 to da date FY FY 2019 2019 FY FY 2018 2018 FY FY 2017 2017 FY FY 2016 2016 FY FY 2015 2015 Open Open Enr Enrollm llment – i – in $562,273 $562,273 $522,873 $522,873 $459,697 $459,697 $481,860 $481,860 $361,000 $361,000 $355,296 $355,296 Open Open Enr Enrollm llment – o – out ($648,239) ($648,239) ($684,870) ($684,870) ($600,123) ($600,123) ($576,190) ($576,190) ($523,717) ($523,717) ($488,862) ($488,862) Com Commun unity ity Sc School Tr Transfer ($90,183) ($90,183) ($134,087) ($134,087) ($170,791) ($170,791) ($198,106) ($198,106) ($173,770) ($173,770) ($157,881) ($157,881) Net Net ($176,148) $176,148) ($296,084) ($296,084) ($311,217) ($311,217) ($292,436) ($292,436) ($336,487) ($336,487) ($291,447) ($291,447)

www.woodmoreschools.com

Net Loss: FY 2014 ($267,791); FY 2013 ($188,422)

EFFECTS OF COVID‐19 PANDEMIC – FY20

www.woodmoreschools.com

• Reduction in Foundation funding: $(198,679)
• District share of CARES funding: $66,159.42
• Approximate, conservative savings due to school closure: $90,000
• Substitute employees: $50,000
• Spring sports: $20,000
• Fuel and other bus expenses: $20,000
• In addition, utility costs were down approximately $30,000.
• What additional costs were generated by moving to an essentially online education

format?

LOOKING TOWARDS THE FUTURE

• Projected shortfall in state revenue for FY20 is $2.0 billion and as high as $5.4

billion total by the end of FY21. How reasonable are these estimates?

• How quick can the economy recover?
• The state is required to balance its budget each fiscal year.
• Rainy Day fund is/was $2.7 billion
• 400 million previously set aside in the Student Wellness and Success fund
• Will the federal government provide more stimulus money?

www.woodmoreschools.com

EFFECTS IN FY21 AND BEYOND?

Local Property Tax Revenue

• Forecast projects a 3% increase in delinquencies in FY21. It also assumes that

those delinquencies will be collected over the next two years. Foundation Funding

• FY20 reduction was 3.72% overall, but not across the board; Woodmore’s

reduction was 4.12%.

• Forecast projects 8% reduction in FY21 and then back to FY19 levels in

the next biennium budget (FY22 and FY23) Other Revenue

• In addition, casino revenue will decrease? How far and for how long?
• Investment earnings will decrease? How much?
• Medicaid reimbursements will be reduced due to lower contacts overall and

many virtual contacts are not considered reimburseable.

www.woodmoreschools.com

EFFECTS IN FY21 AND BEYOND?

Personnel

• Will students and be in the building? Are we having school virtually? Will it

be a hybrid? Will we have fall sports? Any sports?

• What will be the additional costs needed to establish and follow new

protocols to keep “Our Kids”, our staff and our community safe if they are in the buildings?

• None of these questions can be answered today with any certainty

Other

• What will the impact be on the Food Service operation?
• Will our insurance premiums be impacted by COVID‐19?
• Will we receive reductions/rebates for services such as property insurance,

etc.?

www.woodmoreschools.com

Conclusion

The five year forecast is conservative by nature. We are currently experiencing circumstances that have an enormous amount of uncertainty to predicting future outcomes. Given that, the negative assumptions made in this forecast are very conservative as to their potential impact. There is currently a very realistic possibility that the negative impacts could be greater than

• forecasted. This forecast should be regarded as a ‘best case’

scenario.

FORECAST SUMMARY

REVENUE, VENUE, EXPENDI NDITURE URES AND AND CASH CASH BA BALANC NCE

FY FY 2020 2020 FY FY 2021 2021 FY FY 2022 2022 FY FY 2023 2023 FY FY 2024 2024 Revenue $11,890,000 $11,890,000 $11,853,000 $11,853,000 $11,973,000 $11,973,000 $11,753,000 $11,753,000 $11,773,000 $11,773,000 Expe Expenditu tures $12,000,000 $12,000,000 $12,505,0 $12,505,000 00 $12,740,000 $12,740,000 $13,075,000 $13,075,000 $13,445,000 $13,445,000 Over/(U er/(Under) r) ($110,000) ($110,000) ($652,000) ($652,000) ($767,000) ($767,000) ($1,322, ($1,322,000) 000) ($1,672,000) $1,672,000) Cash Cash Bal Balance $2,089,160 $2,089,160 $1,437,160 $1,437,160 $670,160 $670,160 ($651,840) $651,840) ($2,323,840) ($2,323,840)

www.woodmoreschools.com

FORECAST SUMMARY

REVENUE, VENUE, EXPENDI NDITURE URES AND AND CASH CASH BA BALANC NCE (Incl ncludes udes re renewa wal le levie vies)

FY FY 2020 2020 FY FY 2021 2021 FY FY 2022 2022 FY FY 2023 2023 FY FY 2024 2024 Revenue $11,890,000 $11,890,000 $11,853,000 $11,853,000 $12,273,000 $12,273,000 $12,353,000 $12,353,000 $12,373,000 $12,373,000 Expe Expenditu tures $12,000,000 $12,000,000 $12,505,0 $12,505,000 00 $12,740,000 $12,740,000 $13,075,000 $13,075,000 $13,445,000 $13,445,000 Over/(U er/(Under) r) ($110,000) ($110,000) ($652,000) ($652,000) ($467,000) ($467,000) ($722,0 ($722,000) 00) ($1,072,000) ($1,072,000) Cash Cash Bal Balance $2,089,160 $2,089,160 $1,437,16 $1,437,160 $970,160 $970,160 $248,160 $248,160 ($823,,840) $823,,840)

www.woodmoreschools.com