Fitting with FD covariance matrices Seb Jones Department of Physics - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Fitting with FD covariance matrices

Seb Jones

Department of Physics & Astronomy University College London

April 29, 2019

• S. Jones (UCL)

DUNE LBL April 29, 2019 1 10

Previous fitting attempts

1 − 0.5 − 0.5 1 π / δ 1 2 3 4 5

2

χ

FD CovMx & no FD EScale No FD CovMx & no FD EScale FD Escale & no FD CovMx

Last week showed a variation of this plot showing CPV sensitivity change when fitting with FD covariance matrix Using FD covariance matrix lowers sensitivity relative to no CovMx case when also not profiling over FD EScale systematics (green) However, sensitivity unexpectedly greater than case where we profile

• ver FD EScale systematics (red)
• S. Jones (UCL)

DUNE LBL April 29, 2019 2 10

Covariance matrix with unoscillated spectrum

10 20 30 40 50 60 10 20 30 40 50 60

• 0.1
• 0.05

0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3

FD covariance matrix with unoscillated spectra

This is covariance matrix that was previously being used, produced with unoscillated νµ and νe distributions From left to right, samples are νµ FHC, νµ RHC, νe FHC and νe RHC

• S. Jones (UCL)

DUNE LBL April 29, 2019 3 10

With oscillated spectra (2 neutrino approx.)

10 20 30 40 50 60 10 20 30 40 50 60

• 0.2
• 0.1

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 FD covariance matrix with oscillated spectra, 2 neutrino approx.

Covariance matrix is fractional – we thought it should not vary with

• scillation parameters

However, when the matrix is remade with the approximate

• scillated spectra it shows significant differences
• S. Jones (UCL)

DUNE LBL April 29, 2019 4 10

Comparison with same Z axis scale

10 20 30 40 50 60 10 20 30 40 50 60

• 0.2
• 0.1

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6

FD covariance matrix with unoscillated spectra

10 20 30 40 50 60 10 20 30 40 50 60

• 0.2
• 0.1

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 FD covariance matrix with oscillated spectra, 2 neutrino approx.

To calculate the oscillated spectrum weighted νµ events by 1 − sin((1.27 × 0.00232 × 1300)/E)2 and νe events by sin((1.27 × 0.00232 × 1300)/E)2

• S. Jones (UCL)

DUNE LBL April 29, 2019 5 10

Fitting with oscillated covariance matrix

1 − 0.5 − 0.5 1 1 2 3 4 5

CovMx with osc No FD CovMx CovMx with no osc

The oscillated covariance matrix case (black) gives lower CPV sensitivity than unoscillated matrix (blue) but still greater than expected (red)

• S. Jones (UCL)

DUNE LBL April 29, 2019 6 10

Further tests with CAFAna

The covariance matrix is produced using the CAFs but externally to CAFAna. I have attempted to remake the matrix at different oscillation parameters to check for noticeable variation

• S. Jones (UCL)

DUNE LBL April 29, 2019 7 10

Oscillation parameter comparison

δ = 0, θ23 lower octant, IH

20 40 60 20 40 60

• 0.05

0.05

δ = π, θ23 upper octant, NH

20 40 60 20 40 60

• 0.05

0.05 0.1

Can see just by eye there are differences between the two matrices Still unable to produce a matrix similar to the ones produced by Chris’s method Going to try and run my previous fits again with these matrices to see effect

• S. Jones (UCL)

DUNE LBL April 29, 2019 8 10

Unoscillated spectra

FHC νµ

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ReconstructedEν 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000

FHC νe

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ReconstructedEν 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000

RHC νµ

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ReconstructedEν 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000

RHC νe

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ReconstructedEν 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000

• S. Jones (UCL)

DUNE LBL April 29, 2019 9 10

Oscillated spectra

FHC νµ

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ReconstructedEν 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 histCV FD FHC numu Entries 398102 Mean 4.028 Std Dev 2.618

FHC νe

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ReconstructedEν 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 histCV FD FHC nue Entries 355036 Mean 2.967 Std Dev 1.135

RHC νµ

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ReconstructedEν 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 histCV FD RHC numu Entries 384537 Mean 4.722 Std Dev 2.705

RHC νe

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ReconstructedEν 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 histCV FD RHC nue Entries 335730 Mean 3.074 Std Dev 1.247

• S. Jones (UCL)

DUNE LBL April 29, 2019 10 10